How close this year?

[The PIT]

Haven't I heard this before. let me think. Yes. Politics of fear don't you love it.

[Gray-Wolf]

As H5N1 becomes more entrenched in Asia,Africa and europe we should not be surprised to find

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080526/hl_af...sciencepandemic

In the run up to the Chinese olympics there seems to have been a further clampdown of reporting on the extent of the H5N1 outbreaks in the provinces.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080606/hl_nm/...lu_indonesia_dc

Well that is very helpful! (Not!).

Seeing as Indonesia is the most likely place for a pandemic to arise this will reduce our best efforts of containing it at source. We must also be mindful of all the holiday destinations scattered around Indonesia and the international travel that this generates. Still, it would appear that China (where this H5N1 originated) have been doing much worse since 1997.................and now for the Olympics.

EDIT: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080607/hl_af...luhongkongchina

and of course, it had to be didn't it? I wonder where they imported the birds from............seeing as they banned imports from Britain a week ago due to our H7 outbreak it wasn't here..............

Ho Hum.

Edited June 9, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[The PIT]

Amazing panic crazy really. Yeh okay cull the birds but creating panic in the population isn't a good idea. World Population 6817173079 and just over 200 have died most probably in poor health and poor living conditions. A staggering 0.000002933%

Sleep well tonight you very very safe from Bird Flu but crossing the road or driving to work. Eeek.

Edited June 9, 2008 by The PIT

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20080612/hl_hs...ineshowspromise

And at long last........the good news!

Not only does this show promise in the field of avian influenza but the technique could be employed in other areas too!

[The PIT]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20080612/hl_hs...ineshowspromise

And at long last........the good news!

Not only does this show promise in the field of avian influenza but the technique could be employed in other areas too!

Was there any bad news ????

Expect a massive increase of scare stories so loads of the new vaccine can be sold to Governments. Amazing how long Bird flu's been around and we're still alive and kicking.

Bad news for Grey Wolfe he won't be able to panic any more over this.

[Gray-Wolf]

Bad news for Grey Wolfe he won't be able to panic any more over this.

Don't worry about me Pit plenty of other society killing problems on the horizon.......peak oil, agw, catastrophic sea level rise, asteroid impact, Mega Tsunami, Super eruption.......oh the list goes on and on, yummy :lol:

[The PIT]

Don't worry about me Pit plenty of other society killing problems on the horizon.......peak oil, agw, catastrophic sea level rise, asteroid impact, Mega Tsunami, Super eruption.......oh the list goes on and on, yummy

How do you sleep at night I bet you have horrid nightmares. I've got some good chill out pills. (I haven't really but a bottle of cider does well)

[Gray-Wolf]

How do you sleep at night I bet you have horrid nightmares. I've got some good chill out pills. (I haven't really but a bottle of cider does well)

The worst ones are those I cannot wake up from........'cause I'm already awake! B)

[Gray-Wolf]

In the meantime Indonesia has decided to start 'counting' again with another 2 dead from H5N1 in the last week. Medical officials there say the high death rate ,120 dead out of 135 reported infections, is due to initial 'misdiagnosis' of the infection as folk treated with Tamiflu within 2 days of developing symptoms survive.

Pakistan is reporting another outbreak on a commercial chicken farm with 4,000 birds dropping dead over the weekend.

Edited June 23, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Soooooo, here we go again.

We have now got H5N1 reported in the wild bird population of New Zealand

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-stories/5...-nz-wild-ducks/

All other areas have appeared quiet out of the 'cold season' though we'd not know about Indonesia as they have once again stopped sharing info.

Togo has another outbreak.

Victim 112 dies in Indonesia on sept 12th.

[Gray-Wolf]

Bit late with this one

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081010/wl_af...wCTrwNPu7MHcggF

Brussels have confimed the first of the seasons outbreaks of H5N1 in a German poultry farm in Saxony (near the Polish border).

===========================================

By ROBIN McDOWELL, Associated Press Writer

Sat Oct 11, 7:14 AM ET

JAKARTA, Indonesia - When Indonesia's health minister stopped sending bird flu viruses to a research laboratory in the U.S. for fear Washington could use them to make biological weapons, Defense Secretary Robert Gates laughed and called it "the nuttiest thing" he'd ever heard.

Yet deep inside an 86-page supplement to United States export regulations is a single sentence that bars U.S. exports of vaccines for avian bird flu and dozens of other viruses to five countries designated "state sponsors of terrorism."

The reason: Fear that they will be used for biological warfare.

Under this little-known policy, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Syria and Sudan may not get the vaccines unless they apply for special export licenses, which would be given or refused according to the discretion and timing of the U.S. Three of those nations — Iran, Cuba and Sudan — also are subject to a ban on all human pandemic influenza vaccines as part of a general U.S. embargo.

The regulations, which cover vaccines for everything from Dengue fever to the Ebola virus, have raised concern within the medical and scientific communities. Although they were quietly put in place more than a decade ago, they could now be more relevant because of recent concerns about bird flu. Officials from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said they were not even aware of the policies until contacted by The Associated Press last month and privately expressed alarm.

They make "no scientific sense," said Peter Palese, chairman of the microbiology department at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York. He said the bird flu vaccine, for example, can be used to contain outbreaks in poultry before they mutate to a form spread more easily between people.

"The more vaccines out there, the better," he said. "It's a matter of protecting ourselves, really, so the bird flu virus doesn't take hold in these countries and spread."

U.S. Commerce Assistant Secretary Christopher Wall declined to elaborate on the precise threat posed by vaccines for chickens infected with avian influenza, except to say there are "valid security concerns" that they "do not fall into the wrong hands."

"Legitimate public health and scientific research is not adversely affected by these controls," he said.

But some experts say the idea of using vaccines for bioweapons is far-fetched, and that in a health emergency, it is unclear how quickly authorities could cut through the current red tape to get the vaccines distributed.

Under normal circumstances it would take at least six weeks to approve export licenses for any vaccine on the list, said Thomas Monath, who formerly headed a CIA advisory group on ways to counter biological attacks. All such decisions would follow negotiations at a "very high level" of government.

That could makes it harder to contain an outbreak of bird flu among chickens in, say, North Korea, which is in the region hardest hit by the virus. Sudan and Iran already have recorded cases of the virus in poultry and Syria is surrounded by affected countries. Cuba, like all nations, is vulnerable because the disease is delivered by migratory birds.

Kumanan Wilson, whose research at the University of Toronto focuses on policymaking in areas of health protection, said it would be ironic if the bird flu virus morphed into a more dangerous form in one of those countries.

"That would pose a much graver threat to the public than the theoretical risk that the vaccine could be used for biological warfare," he said.

The danger of biological warfare use depends on the specific virus or bacteria. But most experts agree that bird flu vaccines cannot be genetically altered to create weapons because they contain an inactivated virus that cannot be resuscitated.

It's also unlikely they would be used to create a resistant strain of the virus as part of efforts to wreak havoc within global poultry stocks. If enemy states wanted to do that, they could make their own vaccines or turn to a less hostile country like China, said Ian Ramshaw, an expert on vaccine immunology and biosecurity at The Australian National University in Canberra.

"I can think of no scientific reason how a terrorist organization could use such a vaccine for malicious intent," he said. "I personally think it's a rather silly attitude and the U.S. is probably going overboard as it has in the past with many of its bioterrorism initiatives."

Meanwhile, bioethicists say limiting vaccines could also raise moral questions of whether some countries should be denied because of decisions based on foreign policy. They said the export controls appear inconsistent, as Libya, Iraq and two dozen other countries suspected by the U.S. of having biological weapons programs do not face restrictions on the export of poultry vaccines.

"If there really is a serious threat, to be consistent we'd have to more heavily regulate who has access to the vaccine," said Michael Selgelid, who co-authored the book "Ethical and Philosophical Consideration of the Dual Use Dilemma in the Biological Sciences."

"There are malevolent actors in the U.S. just like there might be in all these other countries," he said.

The policies were initially put in place amid biosecurity fears in the mid-1990s and then bolstered after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks and subsequent anthrax letter mailings. The vaccines are among a long list of other items barred to rogue states over fears they could be used to make weapons of mass destruction, from technology and chemicals to dangerous pathogens.

Bird flu has killed more than 240 people across the world since 2003, nearly half of them in Indonesia.

Indonesia's health minister Siti Fadilah Supari first drew widespread attention when she boycotted the World Health Organization's 50-year-old virus sharing system last year, saying pharmaceutical companies were using viruses from developing nations without their knowledge to make expensive vaccines. She has since called for the creation of a global stockpile of drugs or other forms of benefit-sharing.

==========================================================

Couldn't make it up could you?????

Edited October 14, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[mettalfabrik]

any thoughts GW? re swine flu out break

[noggin]

Haven't I heard this before.

I think you may be hearing it again!

[Gray-Wolf]

From the little I know about 'Avian flu' I can add a little about 'Swine Flu'.

Swine flu is far more dangerous in that it readily transmits from human to human (the pig is so similar in it's makeup that it is the perfect 'crossover' from avian to human flu).

H5N1 had 'jumped ' to pigs in China back in 2004 (they had reports of swine with H5N1 anti-bodies) but it didn't seem a virulent as the Mexican outbreak (no reports of human infection).

I still have not heard which avian strain has mutated into this 'swine flu' but am interested to find out (any info anyone?). The mortality rate is pretty low compared to the bird flu or the 'Spanish flu of 1918/19 but it still needs watching as it infects USA.

In Mexico the majority deaths have been under 45's so it shows the potential of the major pandemics (taking the young as their immune system goes bonkers.....us oldies don't have such a 'good' immune system and so it doesn't impact the same way) and I'd suggest keeping a 'watching brief' on developments.

This may prove to be a good testing bed for the spread of disease in the 'jet age'.

Edited April 27, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[noggin]

(taking the young as their immune system goes bonkers.....us oldies don't have such a 'good' immune system and so it doesn't impact the same way)

.

Please could you elaborate on this, G-W? It seems, on the face of it, rather odd, but whilst I am old and past-it myself, I do have offspring about whom I care very deeply.

PS The is for my daughters, btw G-W. Just in case there was any confusion............

Edited April 27, 2009 by noggin

[kar999]

Please could you elaborate on this, G-W? It seems, on the face of it, rather odd, but whilst I am old and past-it myself, I do have offspring about whom I care very deeply. :wub:

I posted something in the serious discussion thread that makes a reference to that we have had strains of pig flu in humans for some time so we may have natural levels of immunity.

[VillagePlank]

This may prove to be a good testing bed for the spread of disease in the 'jet age'.

Yup - an excellent example from which to test, filter, and modify infection models.

[PeteG]

Please could you elaborate on this, G-W? It seems, on the face of it, rather odd, but whilst I am old and past-it myself, I do have offspring about whom I care very deeply. :lol: PS The is for my daughters, btw G-W. Just in case there was any confusion............

The 1918 Flu Pandemic killed mainly young healthy adults because it caused an over-reaction of the body's immune system(called a cytokine storm apparently). With young adults having a strong immune system the result was the death of the young rather than the old. I think, although I'm not certain, that many died as a result of fluid filling their lungs.

[Red Raven]

It appears that the deaths from Swine flu are no longer confined to Mexico with a 23 month old child dieing in Texas. I suspect we will now see a shift in the tone being used by the authorities.

The theory that the deaths only being confined to Mexico was possibly due to lack of early access to Tamiflu but I presume that would not be the case in the US, unless it is unsuitable for young children - anybody know if Tamiflu can be taken intravenously?

[LadyPakal]

Not so far - the US authorities are stressing that the child was Mexican and had travelled to Texas on a visit for treatment. The extreme pollution levels of Mexico City could be why this respiratory disease is hitting those living there the worst.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53N22820090429

On a slightly different note, Spain has reported the first infection found in a person who had not been to Mexico recently. This could raise the alert level to 5.

Edited April 29, 2009 by LadyPakal

[Red Raven]

Not so far - the US authorities are stressing that the child was Mexican and had travelled to Texas on a visit for treatment. The extreme pollution levels of Mexico City could be why this respiratory disease is hitting those living there the worst.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53N22820090429

On a slightly different note, Spain has reported the first infection found in a person who had not been to Mexico recently. This could raise the alert level to 5.

The new information about the death does lower the concern a little as for all intents and purposes it's another Mexican death so the pattern as yet has not changed. The Spanish development has raised the probability that the threat level is raised to 5.

[Typhoon John]

On a slightly different note, Spain has reported the first infection found in a person who had not been to Mexico recently. This could raise the alert level to 5.

And the WHO just has.

I think it's unnecessarily worrying the public; I can see the need to take it seriously but the reaction also needs to be appropriate.

[LadyPakal]

I think we should be grateful it doesn't seem to be as virulent as originally thought. Considering the time it takes to produce sufficient vaccine, I think the raise in level may have been done to force the issue. There is no guarantee that if it were to reach the poorer parts of the world the death toll wouldn't be much higher - having a good stock of vaccine ready is no bad thing.

[androcles]

Sorry.

But I find it laughable that there is all this reaction to something that 'might happen to us.'

Millions of people die worldwide from diseases or even dis - eases and no-one gives a flying you know what.

Why are we worried when hundreds of thousands of people in this country die from smoking. drinking, cancer of one

kind or another, heart disease and no-one seems to care less.

Yet a few people die four thousand miles away and our tabloids panic that ten/twenty of us may suffer a little from it.

Let's grow up, people. Get Real and live in the moment!

Andy

PS If you wake up in the morning with a sniffle, don't panic. You may just have hay fever...or, hopefully...Hay - fever!

Edited April 29, 2009 by androcles