How close this year?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hospitals in grenadeistan aren't exactly the cleanest.

Riddled with H5N1 then

[PersianPaladin]

Riddled with H5N1 then

Bio-terrorism?

[Gray-Wolf]

W.H.O. seems to be confirming 'limited' Human2Human' transmition from the 8 cases under study. Pakistan says "no threat of pandemic" but seeing as their vets don't see H5N1 as 'dangerous' or 'catching' I'm not re-assured!

[Gray-Wolf]

WHO have confirmed human human spread in the Pakistan cases. This is the 3rd instance of Human2Human in the last 12 months (Egypt,Indonesia and Pakistan) but we seem to have 'dodged the bullet' as it was still the Asian strain and so need extended close contact for the virus to infect.

More worryingly an Egyptian woman died yesterday as two further (male) cases were confirmed in Egypt (separate instances) but this will be the 'modifies/mutated ' African/European strain. We are now in W.H.O.'s 'dangerous period' where cold and flu viruses are widespread in the population making it easier for the H5N1 virus to be able to mix with Human2Human strains of virus.

More later.....

[Krasnoyarsk Yenesei]

Whilst we as humans often talk about major catastrophes killing millions without ever seeing it happen, it would seem to me that the H5N1 virus poses a major risk. I came down with flu - 102F temperature, fever etc, and what I noted was just how easy it is to catch. It seems to hit the population of this country every year to some extent. Add into the mix a dangerous killer strain, and it really isn't difficult to see how this could spread dramatically. Once H5N1 is in an easy to spread human to human form, it will be round the world like wildfire. Furthermore, there is no way that it could be contained anymore than ordinary flu is contained.

[Gray-Wolf]

I still don't think many people can envisage the impact any outbreak would bring.

If you look at the impact on the country that a text generated fuel panic caused then the prospect of a 3 month disruption to 'normal services' is obviouslt, to some, unfathomable.

The infection itself is still quite a scary prospect and ,until it breaks, will remain so as we will have no idea of it's impact until 'it's here'.

We cannot use Indonesia's 90% death toll as a sensible indicator (we don't even know the 'true' figures for infection amongst the islands there) but we can be assured that the initial death 'rate' (which will be higher initialy before falling to it's 'true level) will cause panic amongst the populace.This will enevitably lead to absenteeism across the workplaces (as schools are closed for the duration of the 'crisis') due to family fears/commitments.

you can work it out from there!

[Krasnoyarsk Yenesei]

You said it GW - the effects of the virus itself are only part of the problem. The rest of the problem is with the nature of humanity in the west. We are too used to comforts, luxuries and medical excellence, and are just not equipped to cope with anything out of the ordinary. The fuel protest was a case in point - not just the fuel, but the stupidity of those buying 34 loaves of bread and 65 packs of sugar just in case.

[Gray-Wolf]

You said it GW - the effects of the virus itself are only part of the problem. The rest of the problem is with the nature of humanity in the west. We are too used to comforts, luxuries and medical excellence, and are just not equipped to cope with anything out of the ordinary. The fuel protest was a case in point - not just the fuel, but the stupidity of those buying 34 loaves of bread and 65 packs of sugar just in case.

It is more this 'breakdown' than the virus that troubles us!

Because of Luke's conditions he is well catered for over 6 weeks but thereafter he could be struggling. We always have our stores (case of necessity through Luke's poorlier spells) so we too are sorted in the short term whilst we need isolation but what after? Who knows just how far folk will take things when food/fuel/water/medical attention starts to fail. Ho Hum!

[Gray-Wolf]

Another egyption has died of H5N1. She was a 5yr old woman. This is the second death in Egypt in a week (42infected, 19 dead since 2006).

The woman was not one of the other sufferers mentioned earlier in the week, they are still hospitalised. She arrived at hospital 3 days ago with breathing difficulties and high fever.

It is becoming clearer that the 'normal' yearly flu jab offers some limited protection against the disease meaning that the main problem lies with the younger, fitter members of society who are the virus's main victims as they secumb to their own immune systems disproportionate response to infection after their lack of flu jab allowed easy infection.

[Gray-Wolf]

19 out of 43 for Egypt now as the fourth person in less than a week has died from H5N1 infection.

I was surprised to hear our Chief Medical Officer (nattering with Andrew Marr) say that pandemic was his chief worry for the new year......seems he's taking it very seriously (and investing tax payers money where allowed)

Ho Hum

[Gray-Wolf]

We can see from the current spate of norovirus just how poorly we would be catered for should we face pandemic. If we face ward closures because of winter 'sickness and diarrhoea' how would we cope with highly infectious and currently very severe H5N1 pandemic?

Not the most reassuring advert we've had from the NHS!

[0000]

We can see from the current spate of norovirus just how poorly we would be catered for should we face pandemic. If we face ward closures because of winter 'sickness and diarrhoea' how would we cope with highly infectious and currently very severe H5N1 pandemic?

Not the most reassuring advert we've had from the NHS!

Gray-Wolf you alway make a salient and eloquent,reasoned point and I very much enjoy reading your post.I do feel however you can be a bit dismal about our future but tease us with the odd glimmer of hope.I have kids................what would you say to them to change their future if you could?

Edited January 4, 2008 by hannegan

[SnowBear]

I know this doesn't help right at this very moment, but some promising results from tests in the US on a "universal flu jab".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7171118.stm

[Gray-Wolf]

Gray-Wolf you alway make a salient and eloquent,reasoned point and I very much enjoy reading your post.I do feel however you can be a bit dismal about our future but tease us with the odd glimmer of hope.I have kids................what would you say to them to change their future if you could?

I'd say that living is now and , in a very Piaget-esque way, it is the quality of our life and not necessarily the quantity.

I have both Luke (stepson) and Jamie (bain of my life.......joke) so I do not enjoy projecting our futures with the future I perceive.

Humanity has faced many crises in it's short history, the worst being 70 thousand years ago before we'd struggled/wandered out of Africa ,and ,to date, we have always won through.

As Magpie would have it we are in 'overshoot' in so many areas of life and nature will redress the balance. If you can lay low for 18 months whilst humanity undergoes it's 'thinning' then I'm sure the remnants of humanity will rebuild and enjoy a far more equitable existence within it's reduced numbers.

The world is still a very varied and beautiful place and ,for now, that is all my kids need to see......the rest is 'grown up' stuff.

Back on topic, China have reported an outbreak of H5N1 in there western provinces. The Chinese claim it to be the first outbreak since sept but, if you remember, they had a H5N1 death last month and the possible Human2Human infection of the victims father.......all conveniently forgotten eh? Still no news on the Human2Human spread (though WHO sorted out that there was limited Human2Human spread in the Pakistan cluster within 5 days!!!) ho hum.

[Gray-Wolf]

Lebanon on high alert since the Israeli outbreak of H5N1.

[PersianPaladin]

As Magpie would have it we are in 'overshoot' in so many areas of life and nature will redress the balance. If you can lay low for 18 months whilst humanity undergoes it's 'thinning' then I'm sure the remnants of humanity will rebuild and enjoy a far more equitable existence within it's reduced numbers.

Good god, you sound like hitler.

[Gray-Wolf]

Good god, you sound like hitler.

Hister?

[Hiya]

Good god, you sound like hitler.

Don't accuse him like that or you'll be pointed out as a 'denier'

[Mondy]

Good god, you sound like hitler.

Is that quote of the day thread still around? :huh:

[Gray-Wolf]

....and I forsee a new era of northern europeans that will last for a thousand years........a fourth empire that will stand firm against all who oppose her.........we can see now it was always the deniers, with their hold over fossil fuels, the U.S. and the banks, who were the real problem we faced in the years long past and as such they will be marked out for all to see with a badge of shame on their garb and tatoos on their flesh............long live the new jerusalem!

Edited January 5, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[PersianPaladin]

....and I forsee a new era of northern europeans that will last for a thousand years........a fourth empire that will stand firm against all who oppose her.........we can see now it was always the deniers, with their hold over fossil fuels, the U.S. and the banks, who were the real problem we faced in the years long past and as such they will be marked out for all to see with a badge of shame on their garb and tatoos on their flesh............long live the new jerusalem!

G-W old boy...I don't see what that has to do with H5N1??

There are far more pressing issues NOW....such as AIDS epidemic which is killing off a lot more people. Its not just promiscuity that has caused this...because this is growing in more conservative countries such as India and Sudan too.

Conspiracies abound that the virus was forged as a hybrid from an existing monkey-derived virus in order to instigate population control in Africa. Absurd it sounds....but if such a conspiracy did exist...it seems to be working.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Thought this might be of interest.

BBC News

[Gray-Wolf]

Thought this might be of interest.

BBC News

Hope it's a success, stop me faking bravery in front of the kids once a year!!!

If WHO and our Chief Med. Officers fear are realised (pandemic in the next 2 years) then many of the 'cures/treatments' will be for the next time and not this! The failures within the NHS (ward closures,cancelled ops) caused by the winter sickness and vomiting (norovirus) must surely clue most folk up to how, even though we have treatments, many folk will be no better off than their brothers/sisters in developing nations. It's fine having the wherewithall but you have to be able to apply it for it to matter.

Very good news all the same especially for the 'at risk' groups who suffer so badly each winter.

P.P., 'twas but my twisted humour and nothing to do with anything really (apart from your Mr Hilter jibe of course!!)

[PersianPaladin]

My advice: Eat more onions.

I eat an onion every day and I get a lot less colds and they are milder than other people I know.

Touch wood.

[Mondy]

For Gods sake, don't tell GW :lol:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7181384.stm

:lol: