How close this year?

[crimsone]

There were reports of a few (literally) of the workers from the site of the first discovered outbreak being treated with tamiflu.

[Gray-Wolf]

There were reports of a few (literally) of the workers from the site of the first discovered outbreak being treated with tamiflu.

It would also appear (from initial reports) that the other farms/units highlighted and culled used the same workers as the initial units blighted by the virus (hence the cull) but the birds in one unit were already dying. How fast a spread is that!!!

[PersianPaladin]

Wow G-W...you sound almost as paranoid as our beloved mass media.

[Gray-Wolf]

Wow G-W...you sound almost as paranoid as our beloved mass media.

If they were as para as I then they'd be running stories...........unless they've been ordered not too!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

Nice to see that business is about as concerned as most others about the arrival of pandemic

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/s...icle2896560.ece

Seems to me that to keep your employees coming into work (and not hiding at home) you tempt them in with 'Company tamiflu'........

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071119/wl_nm/birdflu_britain_dc

Seems like we're the problem (humans) and we've spread it to a second farm. You can only wonder at the lapses in bio security that allowed this to occur. It would be sad if we managed to allow the virus int our native wildlife.

For a virus that isn't very 'hardy' it seems to survive well on objects/clothing (normally 20mins for many other virus's when not at body temp or there abouts).

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/events/advi...4/en/index.html

We'll see what this meeting brings to us.

[Hiya]

GW, how are we going to manage to allow it to spread into our native wildlife? A bird can fly here and infect our wildlife anyway!

[crimsone]

It's really quite a jump to assume that humans are spreading it. I would suggest that application of occams razor offers a more likely conclusion in that either an infected migratory bird made two stops- one at each farm- , or two infected migratory birds each made one stop. Of the thousands if not millions of birds that pass by, given that they are the most likely original vector, it's far far more likely.

[Gray-Wolf]

It's really quite a jump to assume that humans are spreading it. I would suggest that application of Occam's razor offers a more likely conclusion in that either an infected migratory bird made two stops- one at each farm- , or two infected migratory birds each made one stop. Of the thousands if not millions of birds that pass by, given that they are the most likely original vector, it's far far more likely.

There seemed a little reluctance to accept that the virus is now endemic in our winter visitors in here so, coupled with the report of day old ducklings from Holland being a possible cause, I plumped for the human 'carrier' scenario. I personally believe that it is in our wild bird population and, as they are now believed to be acting as carriers and not just victims, I await the official 'take' on things.

The trouble with Europe being infected is that via both our love for our wildlife (and feeding our birds over winter) and our love for cats and dogs will lead to many more opportunities for the virus to mutate into the Human2Human variant.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071121/wl_uk...ealthflubritain

If it is 'workers' spreading this from farm to farm we need to know. They have had over a week to track down and 'trail' of infection if it was from Dutch Ducklings originally. If not then all us 'bird lovers/feeders' could do with a 'heads up' if it is felt that migratory birds fetched in the virus (as our wild birds will be falling foul of it now).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...22/nfowl222.xml

As for the above their figure a very,very conservative. I have heard that 5% of the total populatin would die within the first 3 months of pandemic arising (those are bird flu deaths and not the deaths caused by civil disorder, water bourne diseases, failure of hospital system which would be much, much higher!).

[Bobby]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071121/wl_uk...ealthflubritain

If it is 'workers' spreading this from farm to farm we need to know. They have had over a week to track down and 'trail' of infection if it was from Dutch Ducklings originally. If not then all us 'bird lovers/feeders' could do with a 'heads up' if it is felt that migratory birds fetched in the virus (as our wild birds will be falling foul of it now).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml...22/nfowl222.xml

As for the above their figure a very,very conservative. I have heard that 5% of the total populatin would die within the first 3 months of pandemic arising (those are bird flu deaths and not the deaths caused by civil disorder, water bourne diseases, failure of hospital system which would be much, much higher!).

Seems to me that it is being spread by wild birds. Worrying.

[Gray-Wolf]

I for one would be very saddened if it was to become endemic in our wild bird population. Luckily many of our resident birds do not seem to be inconvenienced by the virus (though they do carry it) so it isn't exactly a problem for them though any knock on effects (people stopping feeding over winter) would be catastrophic for many 'town dwelling' birds who fully rely upon the feeds.

We will be getting the findings from the W.H.O. conference on H5N1 over the next few days so we can gauge if anything is changing!

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071124/ap_on_...Fyk0adkZG4R.3QA

It would seem that not just medical opinion in Japan is questioning the side effects of tamiflu, esp. on kids, the U.S. medical authorities seem a tad concerned too!.......if the flu doesn't get you the hallucinations will!

[PersianPaladin]

I've had a bit of a nasty cough and runny nose in the past few days.

Must be bird flu I suppose.

[Gray-Wolf]

Romanian now have an outbreak of bird flu. Not confirmed as to whether wild birds were involved or 'breeding' flocks.

All very quiet over here since the confirmation of the spread from the initial farm. I suppose no news is good news. Still it would be nice for them to let us know whether we are being impacted by poor farming practises (bio security measures) or whether our winter visitors are bringing an unwanted 'hitch hiker' with them. Nothing like transparent Govt. and this is nothing like Transparent Govt.........

The earlier prediction of a 'snottier' winter than of late (due to the poor summer) seem to be coming true!!! plenty of cold virus's for our guest to 'merge' with.

[PersianPaladin]

I think the priority should be in solving issues like AIDS, world hunger and resource-depletion rather than the spurious hypotheticals of a bird illness mutating into something devestating.

Time we got our priorities right rather than peering into "what if's".

[Gray-Wolf]

And I'm sure the world is P.P.!

Just a shame that HIV wasn't identified when still in Africa, maybe the world would in better shape had we then had the same level of W.H.O. expertise applied towards the virus (and it's interception to avoid pandemic) as is being thrown at H5N1!

[crimsone]

HIV came from Africa? 'tis news to me!

[OneOffDave]

I was at an event on Wednesday and there were muttering about an H5N2 varianet that could be interesting.

[Gray-Wolf]

HIV came from Africa? 'tis news to me!

What happens if you eat your cousins!

http://library.thinkquest.org/10631/allabout/history.htm

It was probably eating/preparing 'bush meat' that allowed the 'crossover' to occur. From their to the Carribean and thence into the U.S. The rest is history.

If we're not eating 'humans' fed to cows (from bones collected along the Ganges and then processed into foodstuffs) and getting BSE we're eating chimps and getting HIV. I wonder what our chickens will bring us?

[crimsone]

The word there is probably GW... It's probably to the extreme that HIV developed from the SIV that affects chimps in Africa. It's also known that SIV in humand can usually be overcome... but beyond that, we know nothing with absolute certainty save that the first known HIV infections for all major strains were in the 40's or so and it somehow got from Africa to Haiti, where an epidemic started, leading to it being found in America. and further into the US.

What allowed the crossover to occur could well be bushmeat, but that's merely a likely theory. In said colonial times, well, it could have been anything. It's not lost on me that the virus didn't take hold until the early/mid 1900's, and Africans have undoubtedly been using chimps for bushmeat for many centuries.

http://www.avert.org/origins.htm

Edited December 1, 2007 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

I would again think that population increase, poor sanitation and over exploitation of the resourse increased the 'chances' of the crossover. For all of the pain HIV has caused it is still a 'hard' disease to contract needing 'special circumstances' for the virus to remain at boby temp throughout the transfer.

Influenza is a far hardier disease and can live for a time utside the body (on door knobs chairs,bus seats ,desks etc.) so the 'crossover' of H5N1 into an airbourne influenza would lead to a far trickier thing to avoid yet again involving man and beast. The number of chickens and ducks we keep, globally, is astronomic and the H5N1 strain has now visited every continent (apart from Australia/Antarctica?) so the opportunity for it to infect pigs,cats,dogs and people has now become far greater and thus the opportunities for mutation are greatly increased. The battle to stop it's spread around the world has been lost and now we can only monitor/control it where we identify it.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071129/ts_af...nkhealthbirdflu

The U.N. report (above) outlines how poorly prepared we (as a planet) are to do this task and so it would seem prudent to prepare for the worst (Britains increase of drugs to cope with pandemic seems to confirm this).

Poland now have a 'turkey farm' outbreak

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071201/hl_nm/poland_birdflu_dc

and here in the U.K. the Vets seem unwilling to rule out wild birds as the culprit for our outbreak (so that would suggest much of western Europe would have migrants spreading it too).

Dry weather and powdery bird pooh on the air is not a good scenario.

Stangely the authorities still think the developing world will bare the brunt of the casualties. I do not think the developing world will suffer the same level of 'social interuption' as we and that must have a cost in lives (even if it is just 'normal' medical emergencies failing to be dealt with due to under capacity during pandemic)

[Gray-Wolf]

A 24yr old in China has died (Sunday) from H5N1. Authorities stress he has had no contact with dead fowl. 69 people who have had close contact with him are now under observation.

We must remember that H5N1 evolved/was recognised in China and that China has been less than helpful/honest about the scale of the problem there leading to W.H.O. electing a Chinese as head of W.H.O. to attempt to have then play fairer with the world.

As an example of their 'isolation' in the 2003 conference when the delegates were trying to ensure that H5N1 didn't get into pigs (being the host who can have both human influenza and H5N1 at the same time allowing the two to 'combine' into the feared airborne,Human2Human variant) China volunteered that they had had H5N1 pigs for over a year in 3 provinces!!!

China had also not been truely honest about their death toll from H5N1 accepting outbreaks in fowl in provinces but no human infections (whist recording 'spikes' in deaths from the secondary complications associated with H5N1 infection namely pneumonia/septicaemia in the areas where outbreaks in poultry were recorded).

Since the appointment to head of W.H.O. of a Chinese national China has suddenly started recording deaths from H5N1......

Google Earth has an 'add on' showing the current recorded outbreaks, human cases etc. and it is strange to see only India and China appearing to have no problems from H5N1 (though in northern India poultry workers were found to have H5N1 antibodies showing they had been infected with H5N1 and survived......though the outbreak that caused the infections were never recorded)

Because of the economic impact that SAR's had on the nations affected it would appear that other 'emerging economies' do not wish to suffer by admitting a problem (and having 'competing nations' Quarantine/isolate them).

god bless capitalism......

Edited December 3, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Dear do this 'Pandemic'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071204/hl_af...uindiaworldbank

[Gray-Wolf]

Well ,this is one to watch;

GENEVA (AFP) - The World Health Organisation said Friday that two members of the same Chinese family had contracted bird flu, sparking fears of a possible human-to-human transmission of the deadly H5N1 virus. The father of a 24-year old man who died on December 2 in the eastern province of Jiangsu tested positive for bird flu after displaying symptoms of the disease, the WHO said.

The global health body said there were three possible explanations for both men contracting the virus: either they were infected by the same animal, there was transmission between them, or they were exposed to two different infected animals.

WHO spokesman John Rainford said cases of human-to-human transmission are very rare, citing only three previous cases in Vietnam, Cambodia and in Indonesia.

EDIT: As I have posted before we do not know the full extent of the problem of H5N1 in the Chinese provinces but we do know that China is capable of being extremely draconian in dealing with internal 'situations'.

Edited December 8, 2007 by Gray-Wolf