How close this year?

[Gray-Wolf]

I found this on my trawls. Maybe the stockpiling of anti-biotics would be another 'failsafe' for when the next pandemic runs riot!

We should note here also that since 2003 the regional 'spikes' in China's records of deaths from pneumonia and septicaemia could point to another 'primary cause' for the deaths (China hasn't answered other than to say these were the 'causes of death')

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/...71010120543.htm

EDIT: Now my ever so jolly partner reminds me of how useless many antibiotics are becoming through overuse (Jamie wasn't given antibiotics for his last 'tonsil' infection and Luke is never offered the 'first line' of antibiotics as they tend to be inneffective (and a waste of 2 weeks) being offered instead the second level when he has infections) ho hum....

Edited October 12, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmm, 12 year old boy died of H5N1 in Indonesia this/yesterday morning (bringing their tally to 88).

This puts them at 1 death a week over the past month with the peak time for infection being in Feb you have wonder how bad things are getting over there.

In line with what appears to be 'common practice' in the villages over there though he contracted the disease on Sept 30th he was not admitted to hospital until Oct 8th. Even though he showed initial sign of improvement he died suddenly on saturday morning.

When it (H5N1)makes the full leap to human 2 human spread (as it had done in 2 independant clusters in Indonesia last year) you have to wonder what impact this delay in seeking medical aid will have on it's initial spread and the chances of it's confinement.

[Bobby]

Hmmm, 12 year old boy died of H5N1 in Indonesia this/yesterday morning (bringing their tally to 88).

This puts them at 1 death a week over the past month with the peak time for infection being in Feb you have wonder how bad things are getting over there.

In line with what appears to be 'common practice' in the villages over there though he contracted the disease on Sept 30th he was not admitted to hospital until Oct 8th. Even though he showed initial sign of improvement he died suddenly on saturday morning.

When it (H5N1)makes the full leap to human 2 human spread (as it had done in 2 independant clusters in Indonesia last year) you have to wonder what impact this delay in seeking medical aid will have on it's initial spread and the chances of it's confinement.

It's setting itself up for a disaster me thinks.

[Hiya]

When it (H5N1)makes the full leap to human 2 human spread (as it had done in 2 independant clusters in Indonesia last year) you have to wonder what impact this delay in seeking medical aid will have on it's initial spread and the chances of it's confinement.

Watching and waiting for evolution to take place.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071024/hl_nm/birdflu_dc

I suppose this just highlights how poorly prepared we are for such eventualities

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071017/us_nm/...qms5FgE6W8HcggF

I'd also noted this (on another site I use) but I don't think we're any better prepared. What are your plans to deal with long term school closures (whilst maintaining an educational framework for your child) and how does this impact your ability to pay your mortgage?

EDIT A 1 yr old Indonesian child has died of H5N1 .....how often do you let your Kiddie pluck dead chicken? Though the latest research shows mother to child infections occur......

Edited October 25, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Hiya]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071024/hl_nm/birdflu_dc

I suppose this just highlights how poorly prepared we are for such eventualities

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071017/us_nm/...qms5FgE6W8HcggF

I'd also noted this (on another site I use) but I don't think we're any better prepared. What are your plans to deal with long term school closures (whilst maintaining an educational framework for your child) and how does this impact your ability to pay your mortgage?

EDIT A 1 yr old Indonesian child has died of H5N1 .....how often do you let your Kiddie pluck dead chicken? Though the latest research shows mother to child infections occur......

Surely if there was a long term school closure, it would be countrywide and there wouldn't be an educational gap? Also if everyone was advised to stay indoors for 2 months and avoid contact with other people surely the government would freeze mortage repayments?

I get your main point that we are not prepared, and most people are not made of the stuff to survive, but you are every so slightly a wee bit OTT on the "its going to mutate" side. I'll start worrying after evolution has taken its course.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hiya Hiya!

I just don't think that many folk realise how dependant they are upon other folk to keep them alive each day!

With talk of 'travel restrictions' comes the spectre of army barricades enforcing movements (county to county) so the transportation /distribution becomes the type of free for all you see in African countries when aid is given out. Do you think folk with kiddies to feed will act any different to their African brothers.........and will they all be in masks???

So far as the Govt. interfering in monetary issues, where do you imagine this puts the 'markets' at a time when they will already be in 'free fall'? Also , how does the world economy fare throughout this period of 'unrest'? Are we all going to 'barter ' when the cash machines run dry and they ask you for total repayment of all monies owing on your cards?

Sorry to prematurely extinguish your Bonfire with my bladders excesses but you have to really imagine what'll go down.

I'd rather 'over plan' than 'under plan' any day of the week! I'd much rather have egg on my face than be dead.

Edited October 25, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

I've cut and pasted this from Reuters.

It looks as though other folk are seeing what I'm seeing out there!

MILAN (Reuters) - Bird flu virus may become endemic in parts of Europe, with ducks and geese more of a vector for spreading it than previously thought, the U.N. said on Thursday.

"It seems that a new chapter in the evolution of avian influenza may be unfolding silently in the heart of Europe," Joseph Domenech, chief veterinary officer of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said in a statement.

The statement came after German scientists detected H5N1 in dead domestic ducks which had appeared to be healthy.

Avian influenza predominantly hits birds, but contact with sick birds is the most common way for humans to contract H5N1, which has been fatal in 204 of 332 cases since 2003. A few cases of human-to-human transmission have been recorded.

Health experts fear the deadly H5N1 strain could mutate and spark a pandemic. If the virus develops a way of transmitting among humans, the results could be devastating.

After Asia and Africa, Europe may become the third continent where the H5N1 strain could become endemic, the FAO said.

"Europe should prepare for further waves of avian influenza outbreaks, most probably in an east-west direction, if the virus succeeds in persisting throughout the year in domestic waterfowl," Domenech said.

FAO veterinary experts said they were particularly concerned about the Black Sea area where a high concentration of chickens, ducks and geese is comparable with virus-entrenched Asia.

FAO experts urged the European countries to boost their H5N1 monitoring and surveillance schemes in all regions with big duck and geese production, if it was confirmed that the H5N1 virus can persist in apparently healthy domestic ducks and geese.

"It could well be that there is more virus circulation in Europe than currently assumed," said FAO senior animal health officer Jan Slingenbergh.

"We are not saying that the virus is widely spread in European countries, in fact most of the countries are currently virus-free. But undetected localised virus spots in countries with significant waterfowl may pose a continuous risk," he said

Edited October 26, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Vietnam and Bangladesh are reporting outbreaks of H5N1 in their countries (they were both 'clear' so the virus is on it's winter migration now before the onset of the 'cold season' (Jan, Feb).

No new reports from NW Europe though winter migration is now in full swing (Brent Geese overflying here last night).

[The PIT]

Oh dear the panic going up again.

We've heard this time and time gain. Sells paper sells drugs.

Question. How many have died?

How healthy were they?

What were the living conditions they were living?

How good is the health service in the area??

How fast did they get medical attention??

I guess I need to get the old Ack Ack guns out.

[Gray-Wolf]

Pit, Indonesia had another lady (30 ,healthy died in a modern facility) die bringing their (Indonesia) tally up to 112 recognised cases, 90 deaths. Not a bad batting average for something that is 'hard to catch' (at least the Far Eastern Variant).

The sad thing is that , like you , the Indonesians don't seem to be taking their responsibilities to heart. They may well have more deaths to rabies each year than from H5N1 but that doesn't escape the W.H.O. predictions for when it gets loose in a form readily transmitted human2human (it also makes the W.H.O. 'kill rate' of 3% of those infected look a little suspect!) and the horrific losses the planet will suffer. I agree the 'developed world' should help (for their own sakes!) but Indonesia needs to be aware of the education needed for their population and the needs for ALL cases their to be investigated.

It will also be interesting to see the 'clusters' of Pneumonia/septicaemia deaths in both India/China this year (as in other years H5N1 infected regions have 'spikes' of deaths assigned to the common 'secondary' infections of H5N1 infection).

The lady who died lived 'next door' to some chickens that died suddenly. Not exactly cleaning out their guts/anal channel now was it ? and yet infected fecal matter (inhaled) is supposedly the best way to catch it!

Because of the Indonesia 'unwillingness' to take their responsibilities seriously the odds are that the first 'human 2 human' cases (that are not bound to close family members being the only ones infected .....like the last 2 clusters last year) will go unrecognised/untreated and will effectively allow the uncontrolled spread of the virus.

That is of course if Europe /Africa (where W.H.O. tells us the virus will be 'endemic' within the wild bird population this year) hasn't made the the final genetic alteration to the virus (as it now only means 1 change here already being able to alter into an upper respiratory tract infection, and not deep respiratory tract infection they have in the far East) in the mean time.

With the 'tracking' of the spread of HIV from it's 'crossover' to the human population you can readily see how quickly H5N1 has been developing since 97' and I personally feel that the 'leap' will occur very soon. I was hoping it would occur in the Far East to give us a Week or so's 'preparation time' (especially stocking up on Luke's meds) but if the 'leap' is the East of Europe then we will have no time to prepare as it will probably be in the country by the time it is being identified at source (god bless modern Europe! how long did it take the Black Death to travel up from Italy? I wish we had that amount of time!!).

Edited November 5, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

And this weeks 'Indonesia bird Flu Death' comes from Sumatra (one of the 31 out of 33 provinces awash with H5N1). They don't know whether the man had had any contact with infected fowl or not but I suspect the 6 month old baby, from a km away from the dead mans home, who is also showing symptoms of H5N1 infection didn't mess with them!!!

Vietnam is now also suffering from H5N1 infection over 6 provinces after spending the summer 'clear' of infection.

[Greyowl]

Birdflu on Norfolk Suffolk border reported.

BBC website http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7091284.stm

[Bobby]

Could become endemic here if it's not stamped out, like it has already become in many parts of the world.

[mettalfabrik]

it,s not surprising as most of the winter migrants arrive was,nt there an outbreak at the beginning of the summer up there

hey magpie better change the name and the avatar

[Bobby]

it,s not surprising as most of the winter migrants arrive was,nt there an outbreak at the beginning of the summer up there

hey magpie better change the name and the avatar

Lol, good idea.

[Gray-Wolf]

W.H.O. had already declared it's fears that H5N1 would become endemic in Europe (as it is is Asia) so we have to expect more of these outbreaks across Europe. Some research is showing that wild birds are now able carriers (and don't succumb) of the virus making it even harder to control its spread as their are now flocks of dead ,wild birds, to follow. The trade between mass producers (in Chicken/Turkey/Duck) is also thought to be a major route for spread (as we found in our last outbreak).

Lest we forget. Cats carry the infection (as in Germany) but also pass it from cat to cat (up to 50% of the Cats in Indonesian 'wet markets' show antibodies for the virus meaning they've had it and survived.......of course they dont check the estimated 70% that died of the infection). Earlier this year H5N1 was discovered in dogs.

We may not sleep with our Fowl ,as they do in the far East, but we love our cats and dogs and as it becomes endemic in our wild bird population (the 'new' European/African strain that is, the one capable of causing upper respiratory tract infections as the means of spread and not the deep respiratory tract infection common in the Far East) we may find it's spread enhanced by our pets......... and how do you police that?

Edited November 13, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Initial reports from the Suffolk outbreak confirm it to be H5N1. RSPB say no dead wild birds with infection since Aug so where has it come from??? I would still favour (it being a 'free range' Turkey farm) winter migrants from the far NE (remember Moscow's outbreaks over summer?).

If so then we will have H5N1 throughout NW Europe by now and will probably start to get more reports from Germany,France and Holland as the Autumn progress's. No confirmation if this is our 'Upper Respiratory' varient or the Asiatic strain as of yet.

Maybe time to keep a weather eye on things?

Edited November 13, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[MAF]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7092988.stm

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Initial reports from the Suffolk outbreak confirm it to be H5N1. RSPB say no dead wild birds with infection since Aug so where has it come from??? I would still favour (it being a 'free range' Turkey farm) winter migrants from the far NE (remember Moscow's outbreaks over summer?).

If so then we will have H5N1 throughout NW Europe by now and will probably start to get more reports from Germany,France and Holland as the Autumn progress's. No confirmation if this is our 'Upper Respiratory' varient or the Asiatic strain as of yet.

Maybe time to keep a weather eye on things?

Best get a frozen turkey now for Xmas. Could be scarce in the shops soon. Grim.....

[Gray-Wolf]

I get the feeling you could be right turnedoutniceagain!! I can see this rumbling on if they don't find a 'securable breach' in practices (i.e. it is wild bird bourne) with any 'free range birds' being forced into barns making them no longer 'free range'.

Were it to make the jump to Human2Human it'd pee all over Crimbo as well (and make it the worst crimbo ever!!!).

[Gray-Wolf]

This is very interesting GW - why is it we have little media interest in these developments unlike the near-saturation coverage we had a few years ago?

I suppose you could check out coverage over the next few days..........

[The PIT]

Bit of a big free range farm 5000 Turkeys 1000 Ducks 500 geese. Odds on a dodgy import or dodgy feed. What do you think.

[Gray-Wolf]

Bit of a big free range farm 5000 Turkeys 1000 Ducks 500 geese. Odds on a dodgy import or dodgy feed. What do you think.

Next door to open Fen/Marsh land and it's residents looking for a 'free nosh' with the 'free rangers'........

[Gray-Wolf]

Saudi Arabia are now culling birds outside it's capital with their latest outbreak. Not a lot of news coming from our little blip (which I find quite ominous) the last we were told DEFRA found birds falling down dead in the other units they decided to cull and nothing since! Do you think it all died down of it's own accord. Also , unlike last time, no reports of any of the workers/cullers falling sick yet.