How close this year?

[Gray-Wolf]

So , here we go for this 'cold season'

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071005/wl_nm/...lu_mutations_dc

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071005/ts_al...althfluresearch

Now we have Asian/Indonesian 'Human to Human' spread and the current strains in Europe and Africa (the most worrying area) have made the leap from 'deep respitory tract infections' to the more worrying nose and upper respitory tract infections.

Are you prepared for pandemic or is it just another 'scare story'?

W.H.O. has the 'score' since 2003 as 329 folk infected, 201 dead........quite a kill ratio eh?

[Bobby]

Interesting. It's only a matter of time, flu pandemics occur with great regularity every few decades. There have been pandemics in the past and we will get them again, and the signs are looking like it's going to come sooner or later.

When this virus mutates, it's really going to ruin the global economy and case mass panic around the world like nothing ever seen before.

From what I understand, if/when the virus mutates, the kill ratio will drop dramatically to only perhaps 5% or less. Considering the virus will affect about a third of the world's population though, that still translates to 100 million dead. Possible though that it could have a much higher ratio and we could have hundreds of millions of dead.

Certainly not another scare story. It's going to happen sometime.

[pottyprof]

Yup.. Interesting stuff..

It'll be great to see how the study unfolds.

[Gray-Wolf]

Interesting. It's only a matter of time, flu pandemics occur with great regularity every few decades. There have been pandemics in the past and we will get them again, and the signs are looking like it's going to come sooner or later.

When this virus mutates, it's really going to ruin the global economy and case mass panic around the world like nothing ever seen before.

From what I understand, if/when the virus mutates, the kill ratio will drop dramatically to only perhaps 5% or less. Considering the virus will affect about a third of the world's population though, that still translates to 100 million dead. Possible though that it could have a much higher ratio and we could have hundreds of millions of dead.

Certainly not another scare story. It's going to happen sometime.

The wisdom of those who wish to post replies are generally of the 'life's too short' type and though I agree with this I can't escape the notion that 'forewarned is forearmed' and that the 'social consequences' of pandemic are far scarier than Pandemic itself.

I certainly wouldn't want to die because of social disorder/disruption and there is plenty I can do to avoid that fate with little or no effort on my part (just a little forethought).

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/...70930083243.htm

Just a little add on for you townies out there!

Maybe our emissions will do for us quicker than we think?

[The PIT]

There always a chance that a virus can mutate into something more deadly. However they've been banging on about bird flu for many a year and I suspect it's another scare story so Governments can stock up on more serum. Drug companies certainly do well out of it.

More likely that some terrorist will juggle some nasty virus they've nicked from a lab than bird flu wiping us out I think.

[Gray-Wolf]

There always a chance that a virus can mutate into something more deadly. However they've been banging on about bird flu for many a year and I suspect it's another scare story so Governments can stock up on more serum. Drug companies certainly do well out of it.

More likely that some terrorist will juggle some nasty virus they've nicked from a lab than bird flu wiping us out I think.

The fact that 'Tamiflu' is now being touted as 'overused' and could well lead to H5N1 strains resistant to it would kind of 'refute' part of your statement;

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071004/hl_af...zz7i.iDQ3EHcggF

and the fact that one of the two key steps has already taken place within the European/African strain;

http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20071005/hl_hs...gnPINgtU4YHcggF

also means that, against the W.H.O. best efforts at locating and isolating any infections/outbreaks, it is still thriving to the point of independant mutation must surely also be worrying?

In 1917 the first cases of Spanish flu occured (in both France and U.K.) and without it being recognised or any procedures put into place it still took a further 14months to turn pandemic (relying on troop ships returning folk home from war to speed it's spread)

Indonesia recorded it's 87th death from birdflu today (that's 87 dead out of 108 reported cases, as accepted by the W.H.O.) not a bad batting average eh?

Edited October 8, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Bobby]

There always a chance that a virus can mutate into something more deadly. However they've been banging on about bird flu for many a year and I suspect it's another scare story so Governments can stock up on more serum. Drug companies certainly do well out of it.

More likely that some terrorist will juggle some nasty virus they've nicked from a lab than bird flu wiping us out I think.

Arghh, why does everything have to be a conspiracy theory? Have you researched pandemic flu? I suppose when in doubt, make up a conspiracy theory. Makes everything easier.

Governments have nothing to do with the idea of pandemic flu, independent biologists are virologists are the people behind the idea, they just advise the government. Pandemic flu has happened many times in the past and it will without doubt certainly happen again. Anyway, nobody has ever said that flu is coming at certain particular time, nobody knows. But it will come, and it's likely that it will be in the next 10 years. More like 5 or less if it keeps on progressing.

[Gray-Wolf]

I wouldn't waste your breath Magpie! When I became concerned on hearing of the virus (and both China and India's reluctance to accept their 'problems' with the virus and it's spread) I thought it prudent to set up a thread to monitor alterations only to be met with the same level of disdain.

Man's wish to live close to foul (especially in the far East) means that we will always fall prey to flu pandemics, some worse than others in their M.O.

The fear that this, like the 1917/19, is more likely to infect and kill people with 'good' immune systems (the persons own immune system runs wild damaging essential organs/systems in the infected person leaving then to drown in their own 'fluids' ) is what really struck me as worrying and yet it would seem that the 14 to 35yr age groups most at risk are the least concerned about it's spread/mutations.

When it was discovered that cats were now falling foul to the virus (as measured in the Indonesian 'Wet markets' last cold season) and that they were transferring it between one another had me even more concerned (we may not lodge with fowls but we do with Felines!) ,still no concern.

When the first 'clusters' of human to human infection occurred in Indonesia last winter folk still didn't worry. When Bali had it's outbreak this summer it did not deter holiday travel to that destination.....and ,as you say, one day it will be human to human and all those travellers will hop on the plane home not knowing what they're carrying.....

Now the U.S. has noted one of the two remaining mutations needed for it to become easily transferable, person to person, we get Pits response?

Because the young have not suffered pandemic (like the late 60's pandemic) they have no reference to how easily swathes of the populace can fall foul to viral infections. The late 60's virus was a wuzz but travelled well, this one still has a high 70's low 80% kill rate of those infected. All the calculations on 'kill rates are done on between 1.5% and 2% of the population with the virus dying and that would still lead to schools housing the hundreds of dead in each town over the four month period of pandemic. So what if the kill\ rate only drops by a factor of 10? (8% mortality rate) that is 4 times the number of dead that we couldn't cope with before the update!

Because of my fears and our seriously disabled child we keep a yearly watch on the spread/mutations of H5N1 and prepare for the eventuality of enforced isolation (the only 'safe' way of surviving the first 6 week panic/health service collapse). We none of us feel silly about giving insurance comp.s monies we never wish to have to claim on so why not pay a yearly dividend on your 'home health insurance' even if you only need to cash it in once?

Edited October 8, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Kentish Man]

This is very interesting GW - why is it we have little media interest in these developments unlike the near-saturation coverage we had a few years ago?

[Gray-Wolf]

This is very interesting GW - why is it we have little media interest in these developments unlike the near-saturation coverage we had a few years ago?

I don't look too hard for my info, but then I am looking for it! The British media is probably more interested in measles, blue tongue and Foot and mouth (being current and in the country) but what is there tack if ,and when, we have continental person to person contraction?

Both India and China have poorly suppressed the level of infection within their country and if you have 'Google Earth' you can add on the spread (animal and human) of H5N1 and view the gaping hole from china through the Indian sub-continent.

The impact of SARs on the economies of the countries affected has led to a very deceitful level of reportage from some quarters (developing 'super ecconomies'). It is no 'Fluke' that W.H.O. placed a Chinese woman at the helm to try and force them into a more 'transparent' stance on their H5N1 problems. We need to know very quickly of any potential human to human outbreak if we ever wish to control it and folk hiding the scale of their problems to protect their economies isn't helpful!

If your looking for H5N1 info just tap it into your search engine, the world takes it a lot more seriously than some members on here!

[Bobby]

The fear that this, like the 1917/19, is more likely to infect and kill people with 'good' immune systems (the persons own immune system runs wild damaging essential organs/systems in the infected person leaving then to drown in their own 'fluids' ) is what really struck me as worrying and yet it would seem that the 14 to 35yr age groups most at risk are the least concerned about it's spread/mutations.

Yes, this is a particularly worrying part of pandemic flu. It was the same in 1918, most of the victims were young and fit (like returning soldiers). Same seems to be the case for this virus, the people who seem to be dying are usually pretty young and healthy. Quite in contrast to most other viruses (normal flu too) which target the unhealthy, very young and very old, this will down the very strongest and healthiest of society.

I think this upcoming padnemic will be more severe than any other pandemic in the past because it can be rapidly transported to every corner of the planet by air travel before we even know it's happening, due to the incubation period. It could be in nearly every country on Earth within days. Just think of all the disruption too it'll cause with air travel stopped, qurantines, panic buying and so on.

And it's an absolute 100% certainty to happen at some point in the near future. Scary.

why is it we have little media interest in these developments unlike the near-saturation coverage we had a few years ago?

Well, nothing hugely new and dramatic is happening. The media has had they feed off the story and now it will most likely be ignored until the pandemic hits.

We need to know very quickly of any potential human to human outbreak if we ever wish to control it and folk hiding the scale of their problems to protect their economies isn't helpful!

It'll be essentially impossible to control though as due to the incubation period (several days) it'll be everywhere before we even know it's happening in this world of mass transport.

Edited October 8, 2007 by Magpie

[mettalfabrik]

well i for one say keep posting GW, having experienced the 1968? asian flu pandemic it is stuck in my memory as a very nasty virus,my mother worked at the local old peoples hospital at the time and it cut a swath through there ,i remember her coming home from work and telling my dad that another one had died of the flu.i also remember the school being on the verge of being closed due to the mass absence of pupils,as you have said these things go in cycles and prehaps we are way overdue another,you are keeping on eye on this so carry on posting updates, anyway i do find your posts always interesting

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks Magpie, Blackdown.

I do seriously think that it is worth keeping a 'weather eye' on over the winter months primarily because it is already in Europe this season (unlike previous seasons where we have been waiting for it's spread with migratory fowl).

The fact that the mutations that have occurred are in our region too also gives me cause for concern. In the past it was the 'winter sun' seekers that may have caused problems if the far east virus had mutated to the easily transmitted form but this season it's proximity means that 'local' air travel will now be problematic should the 'leap ' occur this year.

Off on a tangent here but this summers low sun levels has meant that many folk have not topped up on their vit. D which , we're told, means that they will be more liable to catch/spread colds and Flu. This would seem to present a greater opportunity for the 'cross matching' of H5N1 within host species (primarily porcine as they catch both Avian and 'Human' flu but now it appears 'felines' may provide the 'nursery' for the little beggars).

When it was a Far Eastern issue I had great faith in 'Quarantine' isolating the virus and stopping it's spread but the African/European strains are making me concerned as to the practicality of rapid response isolating any outbreak (by weight of numbers in Africa and 'mobility' in Europe)

Jan/Feb are the prime months for infectious spread so we need be aware of any developments leading up to then (how many folk travel home for Christmas/New year?)

[Hiya]

A flu pandemic in this day and age would be a sight to behold.

[Gray-Wolf]

A flu pandemic in this day and age would be a sight to behold.

I'm not quite with you on this one Hiya. Maybe you could elucidate?

[snow raven]

When was the last devasting flu pandemic (ie thousands or millions killed by the virus) in a spate of Winter? Just out of interest - since... well.. Newspapers thrive on death and destruction - why arent they harping on about this?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi S.R!

That'd be the 1967 pandemic (not quite the 'Spanish Flu' but millions secumbed world wide). As W.H.O. is keen to constantly rermind us, we are due the next one!

[The PIT]

Arghh, why does everything have to be a conspiracy theory? Have you researched pandemic flu? I suppose when in doubt, make up a conspiracy theory. Makes everything easier.

Governments have nothing to do with the idea of pandemic flu, independent biologists are virologists are the people behind the idea, they just advise the government. Pandemic flu has happened many times in the past and it will without doubt certainly happen again. Anyway, nobody has ever said that flu is coming at certain particular time, nobody knows. But it will come, and it's likely that it will be in the next 10 years. More like 5 or less if it keeps on progressing.

Equal Arrrgh how come some new nasty is going to wipe us all out. Didn't say anything about Governments did I. Nope it's Drug companies and people needing research grants who get rich creating panics.

Didn't the Governement stock up vacines last time there was a scare story. I bet they didn't get it all for nothing.

Like I said on another forum. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it but you can if you want.

We're just as likely to dig up a deadly virus but no one panics over that.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry Snow Raven, I hadn't seen the second part of your post!

The media has already 'exhausted' it's H5N1 scare stories over the past 2 years when we had our 'Scottish Swan' and 'German Cats'. The readership want 'real action' and not potential action and ,primarily due to the good works of W.H.O. we are still only at the 'potential' stage (though as W.H.O. are keen to remind us the potential for pandemic is greater than ever).

If you think back to the 'SARs' episode in the late 90's the Authorities were very quick to isolate and deal with the outbreak (even though it spread around half the globe with Canada bearing the brunt of the outbreak). Did you not wonder at the time how both Hong Kong and Canada were so 'prepared'? The fact is H5N1 had been isolated in China earlier in that year and W.H.O. had already set up the procedure to isolate any outbreaks......as it was it was SARs they ended up dealing with! (when folk say 'if it isn't H5N1 it'll be another such' they aren't kidding!)

When we look at the records from the Far East (as compiled by W.H.O.) we need be mindful that these are only the cases that made it into Hospital. The 'Kill Ratio' may be so high over there because of the remoteness of the populace (Especially in places like Indonesia, the world leader in H5N1 deaths to date) and the fact that many of the cases presenting are beyond help by the time the are taken to the hospital.

Currently in Indonesia they have 108 recorded cases and 87 deaths. Much of Indonesia's population is Muslim and as such their dead are in the ground as soon as possible so many more cases will have arisen and not been documented. They still suffer more deaths in Indonesia to Snake bites or to Rabies (probably by a factor of 10!) than H5N1 per year so to the population H5N1 is a small problem. They are unaware, in their remote villages ,that they may be incubating a pandemic which, by conservative estimates, will take 2 to 4% of the world population (thats 2 to 4% of 6 Billion!) and so are not as careful as they need be to ensure the limitation of H5N1's spread.

The Virus in Africa has transferred via the poultry trade and not by wild bird migration but still it is here that the second mutation of the three necessary for human pandemic has been noted. The same 'mutation' has been noted in the Eastern European strain (the one in the 'Moscow poultry markets' over summer?) and so in all probability the virus is within the poultry industry (Like B.M. turkey farm here)

Once we see our first European/African Human to Human spread I very much suspect the media will be reporting the restrictions affecting our personal movements,School closures, sports cancellations (in fact the closure of anywhere large crowds congregate) as by the time it is recognised as 'human to human it will be in most major cities with an International airport.

Happy Days!

[Bobby]

Didn't the Governement stock up vacines last time there was a scare story. I bet they didn't get it all for nothing.

There won't be a vaccine for several months after the virus emerges. Flu vaccines have to be tailored for an exact particular strain which is why people have to have a new flu jab every year, because the strain is different every year.

[Gray-Wolf]

We've got our jab booked for Tues. p.m. ! (Luke and his carers and Kin) and ,strangly enough it is better to have had your jab for this season as the 'common strain' that is used (the one they reckon will do the rounds) will probably be a part of the final H5N1 mutation so your immune system has a good idea of what to go after on it's 'search and destroy' mission.

Each and every cloud has a silver lining!

Edited October 11, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Bobby]

We've got our jab booked for Tues. p.m. ! (Luke and his carers and Kin) and ,strangly enough it is better to have had your jab for this season as the 'common strain' that is used (the one they reckon will do the rounds) will probably be a part of the final H5N1 mutation so your immune system has a good idea of what to go after on it's 'search and destroy' mission.

Each and every cloud has a silver lining!

It might help a bit but from what I know an effective vaccine won't go into mass production for about 6 months after we've identified the new mutated strain as particular amino acids on the virus need to be targeted in a particular way, and all strains are different. Might help somewhat though. Better than nowt.

[The PIT]

Ah thats a point flu jab time for me and my Mother. I only qualify due to being asthmatic despite being a carer for my Mother. How the hell the NHS thinks I could look after someone with Dementia and Alziehmers I don't know.

[Gray-Wolf]

Ah thats a point flu jab time for me and my Mother. I only qualify due to being asthmatic despite being a carer for my Mother. How the hell the NHS thinks I could look after someone with Dementia and Alzheimer's I don't know.

Some of the NHS Craziness deserves a thread all it's own eh PIT? My sympathies and support for your struggles with the beggars!!!

EDIT: Our practice posted out reminders............consequently the first 3 sessions were poorly attended as no-one got the reminders 'till this a.m.!

"like to see a pandemic in this day and age" my Ass........'Brewery' and 'drinking lots' and 'an inability to plan for' springs to mind.......

Edited October 11, 2007 by Gray-Wolf