JH and a look into the period from T+144, usually

[johnholmes]

thanks MC, as I oft say, time will tell!

[damianslaw]

Update Tuesday evening

This will be just a short one this evening.

To me little has been seen that really alters my view on the last lrf that went from 18th April out to the month end.

There is still a fair amount of spread between the various outputs as to just what may happen.

This is what my final sentence gave last Friday morning

So summing all that up, I would say, in the time scale in the heading, turning much milder with a southerly flow by 23 April BUT probably another cold shot around the end of the month.

On balance I still favour temperatures recovering to more usual April values through next week as a surface high settles to the east or possibly south east of the UK with a largish low off to the west pulling in fairly mild Tropical Maritime air for the whole country. For a few days, late next week and perhaps into the start of the following weekend, afternoon values over 21C do seem likely for places in the southern half of England and into the Midlands. Parts of northern England, along with some of Wales, may see values near or just above 21C.

Thereafter into the start of May and it still looks like most signals suggest that high pressure will take over again north of 50N, probably to the north west it seems at the moment. This will lead to an obvious lowering of those almost summer like afternoon values. Beyond the start of May is way too far ahead for me to even pretend I have any real idea.

I hope to do a fuller update late on Thursday evening of this week.

Yes I can see your thinking a very plausible outcome from the synoptics we are presented with today. I am with you at this stage and think any warming that occurs later into next week will be shortlived as we see heights build to the north again particularly over Greenland allowing a long wave setting us up for another northerly blast come the end of the month as low pressure has no where to go other than on a southerly trajectory - still a few warmish days next week would be very welcome which goes along with my thinking at the start of the month that it would be in the latter few days of the month that we have greatest chance of hitting 21 degrees.

[johnholmes]

Update Thursday evening 17 April for period 22-30 April and into May

For the nearer term out to T+240 then after the rather cold easterlies give way during early next week we have a spell of relatively warmer weather. From about the 23rd April with a low west of the UK anchored to a 500mb trough just west of the country and a high, given the upper flow that will occur through most of this (22-27), builds over Europe. This allows warm air to move north from well south. The exact position of the low and 500mb trough will dictate whether we get several days of dry weather or if it is a mix of warm sunshine and showery outbreaks.

Beyond that time period and it is rather less certain. Once again there are a number of different ideas from the various data sources. However, none of them appear to give much credence to any major blocking high to our north (out into the first week in May). Towards the end of the period there is a suggestion that high pressure may be around the 50N area but not much north. There is also indication from some of the models that high pressure will remain in the far north and not be displaced way off the usual charts we see each day

Indications, (more the area for GP) do suggest that another stratospheric warming may be starting but that would have no effect for some weeks even if it does occur. It might be something to watch for during the start of summer for any coldish wet spells.

ECMWF, for the nearer time scale of this lrf does seem to be the favoured model by NOAA in most of their forecast discussions. The ECMWF and GFS 500mb patterns and anomalies do differ, not greatly, but sufficiently to give a slightly different slant on the weather up to the month end. Hence my comments above. Below are the charts for today. ECMWF having a more north-south orientation to its ridge/trough systems from west to east of the UK along with higher 500mb values (the 576DM line is almost into the Channel) whilst the –ve anomalies to the west are further away than GFS has.

the 500mb charts from NOAA

Generally it suggests the deepish trough at 500mb that I mentioned earlier, but there is a fairly wide spread around the mean. Even to a few members, (a few days ago this did not show) give a north of west flow over the eastern Atlantic.

They quote:-The week 2 ensemble forecast shows fair agreement among the members for the 5760DM height line, but much poorer agreement on the 5520DM height contour. The greatest variance occurs over Alaska. The general pattern is more zonal than the previous period and features a split stream.

And their 500mb anomaly charts, below, show an area of –ve values west of the UK with a smallish +ve area east of Greenland(this tends to fit some of the ensemble members in the chart above).

The NO is expected to first increase and then decrease although with a fair bit of spread towards the end. The NAO shows a rise again with a fair spread later in the period.

Meanwhile La Nina is rated ‘moderate’ and expected to remain so for around 3 months.

Taking the various outputs them I’m happy enough to go for a milder end to the month than most parts of the country have had so far. Still the possibility of exceeding 21C in some southern spots. As to whether its dry or showery at times then we have to wait for charts much closer than today to see which.

As to into May then I think the warmth may not last. There are enough indications to suggest that the flow at 500mb may become more north of west. The actual sequence is unclear but it may be that the Azores high once again tries to link with high pressure over the Arctic areas.

next update will be Tuesday evening

[Glacier Point]

Update Thursday evening 17 April for period 22-30 April and into May

Indications, (more the area for GP) do suggest that another stratospheric warming may be starting but that would have no effect for some weeks even if it does occur. It might be something to watch for during the start of summer for any coldish wet spells.

I would suggest it is a stratospheric cooling:

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...AMJ_NH_2008.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html

Which has yet to impact stratospheric zonal flow but is now being manifested in -ve height anomalies at the upper level and the AO heading towards a more sustained neutral / positive phase which teleconnects to lower heights over the Hudsons and Northern Greenland.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...hgt.ao.cdas.gif

With the NAO still very much tilted towards a -NAO state c/o lots of cold surface air over the Azores and sub-tropical Atlantic, this still has the look of a -NAO / +AO teleconnector state - which is a signal for warmth and Tropical Maritime flow.

Edited April 17, 2008 by Glacier Point

[bluearmy]

todays cpc charts are rather more encouraging JH with the atlantic trough looking well set and that bit further west

[johnholmes]

Update for Tuesday evening 22 April for the period end of April into the first week of May

First to review the probable weather pattern and especially temperature levels into the end of this week.

There is still some uncertainty about the levels but the prediction by the various data inputs seems correct to me. That was a switch from less mild airflows, chiefly from a northern source, to a milder, almost warm flow from a southerly direction. This being due to high pressure to the east of the UK and low pressure to the west. So a good call from 10-14 days out in my view.

As to what will then transpire into early May and again we have rather conflicting signals.

This is the latest post from GP and gives his views

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?a...sult_type=posts

part of his text

Final update for the month before the new challenges presented by May. By and large, this month has gone to plan with the final week promising a welcome warm up. Long range model guidance, has, up until 00z and 12z ECM, suggested a return of northern blocking and cooler conditions for the UK.

I am however slightly sceptical because to get this we need both a -NAO and -AO to fall into place. The first is likely. The second, well, I'm not so sure.

and the final paragraph

This leaves us with a potentially interesting transition period last week April into May, one for me more likely characterised by a neutral / positive AO and -ve NAO. Weatherwise, feeling much more warmer with troughing in the Atlantic and mid latitude highs developing towards the UK with just enough polar jet flow to our north to prevent the formation of mid-Atlantic ridge / Greenland unions so plenty of warm spring sunshine likely to become evident but also bands of rain moving west-east across the UK due to the variability driven by tropical forcing.

The most recent posts from NOAA regarding both NO and NAO are below

both suggesting, first a rise (seems to fit what the models suggest for the next few days) and then a drop into early May, with some spread as we might expect.

Their 500mb charts for today into early May below

and their 500mb anomaly charts below, the first one 28 April – 2 May; and the second one alongside for 30April – 6 May

The latest comparisons of the GFS and ECMWF charts show differences at the T+240 mark

GFS at 12z Tuesday for Friday 2 May with the ECMWF version alongside.

not that different today with the 500mb trough shape and the nearest surface features to the uk

So, all in all, mixed signals as to what is probable in the first week or so in May. So thinking cap on again and here we go.

I would favour a cooler spell for the start of May; most signals to me appear to suggest that. So out to the end of about the first week in May expect temperature values to be rather below the normal for early May. These (using Met O data for 1971-2000) show afternoon values of from 12/13C in the far north to around 17C in the south. Thereafter I would not place bets on it either way. Some outputs suggest above, some suggest below. Most of you that read my forecasts, at whatever range, know I err on the side of caution so I will hold back on any prediction until at least the next update, due Friday 25 April.

Edited April 22, 2008 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

I'm posting a rather different way this evening, its supposed to be saving me some time!

If it does not work please pm me.

lrf_friday_25_april_final_text_charts.doc

[bluearmy]

makes sense JH although i have a strange feeling that things will stay mild after the BH w/end with the trough stuck to our west and blocking to our north east stretching down into europe

[johnholmes]

you may be right, we will have to wait and see.

can you give your reasons why you feel that will happen?

[PB22]

I'm posting a rather different way this evening, its supposed to be saving me some time!

If it does not work please pm me.

lrf_friday_25_april_final_text_charts.doc

Thanks John, a top quality read as always and a fair summary of what the longer term trends look to be.

[bluearmy]

you may be right, we will have to wait and see.

can you give your reasons why you feel that will happen?

spending too much time looking at the NWP and related output which seemed to point in this direction and looks as though it might well be right

[johnholmes]

looking that way, see my comment in the model thread re the 500mb trough sticking around

[johnholmes]

Update Tuesday 29 April for the period 1-21 May 2008

As in most cases in this thread, or so it seems, there is evidence on both sides which appears, on its own, to suggest one main pattern. However, we must look at both options, more if there are more, and try and decide which seems most likely.

The prediction of the AO and NAO, from last evening is below

first the AO

A quick reminder of what the AO is

A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL. THE PHASE OF THE AO IS CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID- LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN.

Thus –ve means heights/pressures are above the normal value in the Arctic basin. So pressure is predicted to be high but probably tending to fall as the value rises towards zero but not quickly and with a fair degree of scatter.

The NAO shows

Increasing to above zero, again with some scatter which means from the definition below; rather similar (in a simplistic fashion) to the AO but referring more specifically to the North Atlantic.

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN. IT CAN ALSO BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION) TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND (STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALIES.

So both these indicators are suggesting that pressure seems likely to be high to the north of the UK in the immediate future. What it does not do is suggest where the higher pressure is likely. Is it to the north west, the north or the north east? Through the winter with La Nina in a strong phase, Climatological and statistical evidence is quite strong for any pressure build to occur to the north east of the UK. This did happen on a couple of occasions with attempts for links between the Azores high and pressure in the far north to link up having little success through the winter but rather more in spring; another feature of La Nina periods. As a newcomer to this I have no idea how La Nina along with the AO and NAO inter react into the summer period. I would imagine that –ve AO and NAO must tend to make for cooler more unsettled weather but I stand to be corrected, so please do so if you have proof of this.

On to other factors which feed off this. Obviously much of the data that comes from NOAA is led by this data, thus their 500mb anomaly charts at 500mb and their ensembles will, to some degree, be affected by what data about these features is fed into the model, or so I would expect. How much that impinges on ECMWF or any other model I do not know. Again if anyone has actual data to show how much then please post this. To digress a moment and comment on ECMWF, it has, over the past few days, in the 168-240 500mb pattern with GFS, shown rather more of a westerly suggestion than GFS has. Although latterly it has altered this to a more southerly looking component.

Turning to forecasting what may happen. The first part of the last lrf tried to give an early estimation of Bank Holiday Monday. At the time it appeared that temperatures would be about or just below average with it still uncertain whether the surface low under the 500mb trough to the west or the upper and surface ridge to the east would dominate.

Currently I would suggest we can split the weather into two parts, temperature and precipitation; in the first case the evidence is for above average values for almost the whole country, even very warm in some sheltered spots. The flow is slack with high pressure to the east and local wind effects likely to be dominant. Thus along parts of the east coast it may be rather cool if the cloud off the North Sea fails to break. Inland then becoming warm for most. However the second part is precipitation and it is unlikely to be dry for many. A mix of sunshine and some hefty showers seems the most probable. Perhaps a band of showers moving west to east through Sunday with inland heating setting showers, possibly a clap or two about with some, off as Monday progresses. Stay tuned to NW for the latest updates on how the finer detail evolves into the weekend.

Now to the more distant time frame, say 6-21 May!

I firmly believe that a major factor will be the persistence of two items. One will be surface high pressure in a fairly broad swathe well to the north of the UK, settling into our area at times. The other key factor is likely to be the 500mb trough, currently right over the country. Upper air changes will ensure it stays around but moves (retrogresses) westwards into the middle or eastern Atlantic for most of this period. This will ensure that pressure is high to the east and low to the west with a tendency at times (thanks to the AO/NAO) for it to be to the north east of the country. Even perhaps for it to settle to the north with pressure at the surface low to the east and west or south west of this high.

Having said that some of the data, from NOAA, does suggest a more westerly flow at times, see the 500mb ensemble chart from last evening, fairly typical of their ideas for around about 8-10 May.

Perhaps I'm reading that wrong!

If we look at their anomaly chart for 500mb about the same time then they show +ve values to the north east with a mean trough west of the UK, thus giving a flow from a southerly rather than an easterly and certainly not a northerly direction.

They have said through the past few days that the various models are having trouble even at short range (our chase team will be pondering their ideas on just where the short wave feature will go) and also at longer time scales. So confidence is, shown by this from last evening for the 8-14 day period

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF

1 TO 5.

So, once again time to bite the bullet for the period up to 21 May.

I would say below average rainfall and generally no strong winds, apart from a small probability for the far north west and only briefly. As to the temperatures then I believe it will be a mix between below and well above normal. It all depends on just where the main high resides through most of this period. I suggest it will initially be east or even south east and tend to move north to, at times, be centred to our north or even north west. This would allow less warm air to filter down its eastern flank with western areas faring the best for both sunshine and temperatures.

[johnholmes]

Update on Friday 2 May 2008

First a comment about changes to the way the lrf is presented or rather its frequency and time scale

I have decided that it needs a few minor changes. First to have a definite T+00 check to see how close or far from the actual I got. This means that updating twice each week for different time scales has to go.

From next Friday there will be one lrf time period with an update on the Tuesday which covers the same time scale.

This I hope will make it easier to keep track of when a validation is due and enable me to keep a proper log for all to see.

Currently I have an ad hoc system which is honest but less than what is needed.

So far, I reckon that of about 10 lrf checks all but two were pretty close to what happened with another one in the 'doubtful' category.

It correctly picked out the cold spell of early and late February and into early March along with the Easter one and two more recent examples in April. It was not so good in suggesting that below average temperatures were more probable than above for the spell from Bank Holiday Monday upcoming.

Still I'm quite content with its success so far and it does allow one to keep an eye on how GFS is performing at its longer time scale. Still very mixed on that but with the two checks running, sometimes at the same time, it does give me more confidence on whether to accept the GFS prediction or not. The occasions when its been right way out at > than T+360 is not large but it includes a couple of those mentioned above when it gave quite good overall guidance.

So to the lrf for tonight out to 21-23 May (starting at T+168 from today (Friday 9 May)

The larger scale first

La Nina as the last update and forecast to continue; = http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal...s-fcsts-web.pdf

NO

and NAO

My reading of both is that the probability of some kind of northern blocking is fairly high (correct me if I am wrong please).

NOAA forecast comments

908 AM EDT FRI MAY 02 2008

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 06 2008 - 12Z FRI MAY 09 2008

UPDATED MORNING MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONSIST OF A BLEND OF THE ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF.

and

IN THE EAST...A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC CREATES A

TRAFFIC JAM...AS A CLOSED LOW PERSISTS SOUTHEAST OF

GREENLAND...AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE DAVIS

STRAITS. THE CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO MONDAY IS FORCED TO LIFT

NORTH DUE TO THE BLOCKING RIDGE.

and

MANUAL PROGS GAVE HIGHER WEIGHTING TO THE

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 5-7 AS A RESULT. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF

500 MB RIDGE STANDS OUT AS AN OUTLIER WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OVER

THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LAKES

and this about their confidence levels

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF

1 TO 5... DUE TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

Their 500mb ensemble comments for the period 5-16 May are

This period is characterized by much uncertainty in the circulation pattern across the Pacific and North America. is their first sentence

and the chart for 8-14 day period for 13 May shows a mean flow sw into Greenland then about westerly from then but with a lot of spread so not overmuch guidance here.

their 500mb anomaly chart for 10-16 May; looking at the one above(500mb mean) and this, I suggest that the westerly above is the top of the apparent 500mb ridge which overall gives a flow from some area north of the UK(ne or nw I'm not sure, probably n then nw with time?)

Turning to the two main models out to T+240 what do they show?

GFS on the left and ECMWF on the right

Well the 500mb trough(s) are not that similar so its no real surprise that the surface pattern is not either. Where GFS has a low, ECMWF has a high. In very simple terms, one suggests a southerly flow and the other a slack northerly?

So once again what do I go for in the time scale quoted above?

On Tuesday these were my thoughts out to 21May

I would say below average rainfall and generally no strong winds, apart from a small probability for the far north west and only briefly. As to the temperatures then I believe it will be a mix between below and well above normal. It all depends on just where the main high resides through most of this period. I suggest it will initially be east or even south east and tend to move north to, at times, be centred to our north or even north west. This would allow less warm air to filter down its eastern flank with western areas faring the best for both sunshine and temperatures.

Not a lot has really changed, its still tending to be high pressure dominated although not so much and with perhaps a more northerly type looking likely, at least at times so less likely to have above temperatures and more likely to see below average, possibly quite well below, especially for more northern areas.

Watching the checks I'm doing on the output to T+384 currently out to day 10 has shown two main modes. The first was cyclonic with the 500mb trough just west of the UK; its latter mode is for high pressure to be more dominant, probably settling in just north of the UK.

I tend to believe its latter idea and most other data does, in my view, support this idea of high pressure settling in somewhere north of the UK, probably to the north west. If you remember way back, Stratospheric warming etc, it was suggesting this into mid May as its effects became apparent in the Troposphere. Other data again suggests this is far more likely than a southerly flow. The 500mb trough in the Atlantic does not seem to want to go anywhere fast. GP has also commented about the area of cold air (anomalously speaking) in the North Atlantic.

So below average through the period T+168 out to 21 May, for much of the time. Parts of the north may be almost into the rather cold category for a time. A more northerly rather than north westerly will cause this. Precipitation now seems more likely at times although overall in the period many southern areas will be below normal. Even frost for some northern locations is a probability at times with ground frost more widely on a few nights a possibility. Remember this is from 2-3 weeks ahead we are looking at, so don't expect specifics! Later in the period, quite late on, then a tendency to warm up somewhat, to above normal is likely, again especially for southern areas. One exception to this could be if one of the high cells settles near to north west Scotland, then under it daytime temperatures could almost reach rather warm for that area for perhaps a couple or so days. Its only a slight probability I would suggest but needs a mention.

I will attempt a T+00 check using the chart for 12z Wednesday 21 May 2008.

Well enough for tonight. As posted above the next full update will be a week tonight, 9 May 2008 with a quick check done next Tuesday 13 May 2008.

Please feel free to differ but please give your reasons, no one liners please.

[bluearmy]

all seems reasonable JH but the NOAA cpc confidence in the pattern upstream remained poor for the whole of the week. i detect a small trend for pressure to eventually rise from the south west and become the primary inluence rather than the retrogressing high to greenland as per the weeks cpc output.

tonights ecm op and control show this

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

a blip or a trend ????

or maybe i should have waited for the exended ens to cast a rather better light on the control run evolution

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

would be a shock to go from 25c on the monday to 12c on the tuesday with no storm apparent??????

Edited May 2, 2008 by bluearmy

[johnholmes]

I would say my weighting for it becoming cooler rather than milder/warmer is about 60:40 so its by no means certain. I thought I had indicated that NOAA had only low confidence right out to the end of their forecast, ie day 14.

[johnholmes]

Update on Tuesday 6 May 2008(starting Friday 9 May and finishing Friday 23 May)

fairly brief tonight.

Gfs alone has chopped and changed in the time scale we are looking at, between the various runs each day. Basing most on the 12z output would give a more steady base line with a suggestion that rather less warm air will predominate.

Other inputs

GFS and ECMWF at T+240 varying days from Saturday to Tuesday.

This has shown variations in both individual models comparing like with like, ie: 12z with 12z for GFS. Differences between ECMWF and GFS continue pretty much all through. For GFS it does show more 'cool' rather than 'warm' for the majority of runs.

The general idea does seem to suggest high pressure will be dominant although its location is far from certain. It varies between well to the north west to out to the north east. This makes a fairly large difference to expected afternoon temperature levels.

ECMWF and GFS 500mb anomaly charts around 17-19 May suggest variations on a blocking type theme. Again trying to decide whether the main block will be north east or north west, indeed north or south of the 50N line is not easy.

NOAA

The guidance regarding AO and NAO, using their charts, is not that different from those looked at last Friday.

My predict is therefore, for the time period shown, for high pressure to be the dominant feature with no sign of any active Atlantic setting up. The question is where is the high going to settle, will it settle, or will it move around, and if so where?

I would still plump for something of a go between with it varying between a position allowing fairly warm south easterly, possibly easterly with a cooler phase when its to the north of the country. For any spells giving a longish sea track off the North Sea then any area(depending on the actual flow) from Norfolk all the way up the east side into the Northern Isles could have much cooler weather with low cloud and sea mists. Three weeks ahead is way too far to be any more precise.

So essenytially a dry period, although the 500mb trough will be near enough at times to bring more showery weather into some west or south western areas, with varying temperatures from a little below average to well above for the third week in May.

validation chart will be 12z Wednesday 21 May 2008

The next full update will be Friday 9 May 2008

Edited May 10, 2008 by johnholmes

[PB22]

Thanks John, excellent summary as always. I think we could be in for a prolonged dry period too, and I am expecting winds to go north of east at some point, bringing some spells of dull and cool weather to eastern coasts. I have no real scientific reasoning behind this, its just based on general mid-late springtime patterns - this part of the world can be glorious one day, and horrible the next if that wind goes north of east.

Edited May 6, 2008 by Paul B

[Polar Continental]

Cheers John for your thoughts on the next couple of weeks, yes I think we are in for a quite a lengthy mostly dry and pleasantly warm period, never hot, which suits me personally, but still above average, though I think as you say, western areas look like seeing more unsettled conditions at times as low pressure pushes up against the high.

At the moment going by the models there doesn’t look to be much in the way of any cool and cloudy stuff coming in from the north sea, but as you and Paul say, it only takes a slight change in the orientation of the high to bring this about.

Paul

[johnholmes]

sorry no update, too late Friday night to do it, will post sometime Saturday

this thread is now closed with a new one as below

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1253488

Edited May 14, 2008 by johnholmes