Tropical Cyclone Hondo

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Cyclone 16S has formed in the South Indian Ocean, 580 nautical miles southeast of Diego Garcia. The storm is well out to sea at the moment, but, fairly unusually for a southern Indian Ocean cyclone, it's heading eastwards due to a steering ridge to the north. The ridge is weak so 16S will be a slow mover. Condtions are favourable for some fairly speedy strengthening over the next couple of days as shear is low, outflow is good and sea temps are very warm beneath the cyclone.

Satellite image of 16S: (it stands out pretty well in the centre of the image)

Taken from CIMSS

[Cookie]

good another one to keep an eye on, was starting to go quite again :lol:

[Somerset Squall]

16S has intensified this morning, and is now at 45kts and has been given the name Hondo. Banding is excellent, particularly in then northern quadrant, indicative of a strengthening cyclone. Hondo is forecast to strengthen pretty rapidly now as poleward and equatorward outflow improve, shear remains low and waters remain very warm (28-30C). Track speeds will be slow initially as Hondo gets caught up between a ridge to the north and south. The northern ridge will become the dominant influence and therefore Hondo should track eastwards at a faster pace after 48hr. Hondo is forecasted to be at 85kts (cat 2 on SS scale) by 48hrs too.

[Somerset Squall]

Hondo has rapidly intensified since this morning and is now at 65kts (cat 1 SS scale). Hondo has undergone this intensification due to excellent outflow and low shear with the presence of an anticyclone to the east. Continued intensification, maybe rapid, is forecasted by the JTWC due to very favourable conditions persisting as Hondo travels east.

[Cat 5]

Looks like a biggie, up to Intense Tropical Cyclone within 48 hours, thankfully there is no land in its path (on my map anyway!)...

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like a biggie, up to Intense Tropical Cyclone within 48 hours, thankfully there is no land in its path (on my map anyway!)...

Very true Cat 5, and Hondo is still strengthening fast. Up to 75kts this morning, and there was a clear eye last night, although this has become rather obscured by cloud this morning. However, Hondo is still strengthening as outflow is very good, sea temps are warm and shear low. Convectional banding to the north and south are excellent, further feeding the cyclone. Indications are that Hondo will continue to get stronger and stronger throughout the forecast period. A more southeastward turn is exected in response to an equatorial ridge building to the east of the system before a general east-sotheastward track resumes. As you say Cat 5, it's a very good thing it's not currently threatening land, as the JTWC have Hondo at 105kts in 48 hours time- and it is possible it could be stronger than that.

[Somerset Squall]

Hondo has strengthened further to 90kts (cat 2 on SS scale) according to the JTWC. The eye has become very clear to see in the latest satellite imagery. Hondo will continue to strengthen and I wouldn't be surprised to see Hondo become a category 4 in the next few days as conditions are very favourable.

The first image I posted shows how compact but intense Hondo is currently, certainly a nice looking storm.

Edited February 6, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Well 2 days was an over estimate, because Hondo is now a 120kt, category 4 (SS Scale) cyclone! Hondo has bombed in intensity over the past 6 hours and looks very impressive on satellite imagery. There is scope for more strngthening over the coming days as conditons remain favourable for at least another 48hrs, after which there could be an increase in shear which would induce weakening, although the shear forecast isn't certain. I am quite surprised at the speed this cyclone has gone from depression to a cat 4 intense cyclone- just goes to show how favourable the conditions are in the area!

[Cookie]

thanks for the great updates mate :o

[Cat 5]

Yeah thanks SS... appreciate the updates.

Seems like you were right about the favourable conditions - another system has developed in the Diego Garcia area and one just South of Christmas Island.

What are your thoughts on Hondo intensifying to Cat5 status? Interestingly, the last Cat5 Cyclone was back in November 2004 when Bento followed a very similar path to Hondo. Both systems developed approx 400 - 500 nm East, SE of Diego Garcia.

[Somerset Squall]

It's possible that Hondo will make cat 5 status, it's chances are limited to the next 24hrs as after that shear is expected to increase due to the approach of a trough. But conditions are favourable until then so we'll just have to wait and see. The JTWC have Hondo holding at 120kts for the next 24hrs, but as conditions are favourable a little more intensification can't be ruled out I wouldn't have thought.

[Cat 5]

SS - can you post a link to what you think is the best sat images of Hondo please?

Cheers matey

[Somerset Squall]

SS - can you post a link to what you think is the best sat images of Hondo please?

Cheers matey

Here's a pretty good current close-up:

Taken from Navy/NRL

The one I posted on the first post is pretty good for a broader view of the South Indian Ocean but this site shows indvidual shots of the cyclones really well. There's also Meteofrance which has a pretty good iamge of the western half of the south Indian Ocean which also shows Hondo pretty well at the moment.

[Cookie]

great image mate!

Wind: 140 MPH — Location: -14.7S 82.7E — Movement: ESE

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks Cookie. It doesn't seem to be updating though so go to the link for an updated image. Hondo is looking even better now and is still strengthening. Awaiting the JTWC's update at 9pm but interestingly Meteofrance have upgraded it to "Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Hondo" with a central pressure of 906mb!! That's very low indeed, it's possible Hondo may be attaining cat 5 status- we will have to wait and see.

Edited February 7, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Well it seems Hondo is still shy of the legendary cat 5 status as it's intial intensity has only risen slightly to 125kts according to the JTWC. This is still a monster of a cyclone and it's very lucky that Hondo isn't threatening land. The JTWC has mentioned that Hondo is becoming annular, something I don't really know much about but KW's hurricane tutorial explains more about it http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=19418 . This could mean that Hondo will be able to continue to get stronger without having to undergo an eye wall replacement cycle (which interrupts strengthening tropical cyclones). JTWC are still reluctant to say Hondo will become any stronger but as conditions are still favourable and Hondo may be becoming annular- this is not out of the question.

[Cookie]

thanks for the link 906 mb thats deep!

[Somerset Squall]

thanks for the link 906 mb thats deep!

Certainly is Cookie- Hondo is really impressive, can't resist posting this:

Beautiful to see.

[Cookie]

very much so, would love to see from space. like the film day after tomorrow.

[J07]

This is an exciting one. Thanks for the updates.

[Cat 5]

Sattelite image of the Indian Ocean taken at 06:30 this morning.

From left to right you can clearly see Ivan (TS), Hondo (Cat 4) and the new system 17S (TS).

[Cookie]

cool thanks for the image mate

[Somerset Squall]

Great image there Cat 5, thanks for sharing.

Hondo has not strengthened anymore overnight, according to the JTWC it has actually weakened slightly to 120kts, and according to Meteofrance pressure has risen to 925mb, considerably higher than yesterday. Hondo is now beginning a more poleward turn and is expected to accelerate as it becomes influenced by an approaching trough which is also going to weaken Hondo further as it increases the shear over the system. Weakening is expected to be fairly slow but Hondo is forecasted to be back down to 105kts (cat 3) by 48hrs. It's pretty unlikely this storm will make cat 5 status now unless there are any unexpected changes regarding the trough.

[kold weather]

I've missed this impressive storm but it does look like being close to being annular in nature again, I'm not sure its quite there but there is a distinct lack of rainbands outside the main central cloud mass and the eye has somewhat enlargened again.

Over recent hours the eye has warmed up again after meeting some shear, however it does appear breifly that this has eased and given how close the system is to being annular it shouldn't be easily weakened by the everdecreasing heat content as it should still be able to ue a high percent of the heat content present which at the moment still supports something between cat-4/5, indeed I think it was very close to being a cat-5 24hrs ago as it happens, its going to have one more shot IMO tonight to reach those heights, the eye has warmed again and the eyewall has cooled down suggesting there is some strengthening occuring but whether or not it can get back upto the lofty heights it was before is another matter!

[Cookie]

when dose a system become a cat 5?