Tropical Cyclone Hondo

[Somerset Squall]

when dose a system become a cat 5?

When sustained wind speeds exceed 135kts- the highest Hondo has reached so far is 125kts (measured by JTWC) so it fell short.

Thanks for the analysis KW, much appreciated. JTWC have further weakened the storm to 115kts on the latest advisory as shear is affecting the system and slightly cooler waters await Hondo on it's more southward track. But as you say KW, if Hondo is indeed becoming annular then it may have a last shot at strengthening.

[kold weather]

I neither agree with the idea that this was 125kts nor wih the idea that its weakening...Firstly it had a central pressure of 906mbs and given the sturcture of the system with te evident stunning strcture I think this could have easily been a 135-140kt cyclone a its peak yesterday though I guess we will never know for certain now...still I doubt it was only 125kts IMO.

Also whilst the JWTC say its weakening over the last few hours the eyewall has nearly become perfect and in fact Dvorak sat estimates are now nearly as high as yesterday when Hondo was at its peak, it does ook like a strong cat-4 to me right now probs as strong as theJWTC had Hondo yesterday, around 125-130kts would be my current guess.

[Cookie]

thanks kold and somerset

[Somerset Squall]

I neither agree with the idea that this was 125kts nor wih the idea that its weakening...Firstly it had a central pressure of 906mbs and given the sturcture of the system with te evident stunning strcture I think this could have easily been a 135-140kt cyclone a its peak yesterday though I guess we will never know for certain now...still I doubt it was only 125kts IMO.

Also whilst the JWTC say its weakening over the last few hours the eyewall has nearly become perfect and in fact Dvorak sat estimates are now nearly as high as yesterday when Hondo was at its peak, it does ook like a strong cat-4 to me right now probs as strong as theJWTC had Hondo yesterday, around 125-130kts would be my current guess.

I must admit a pressure of 906mb, did strike me as very odd for a cyclone with supposed 125kt intensity. Even more surprisingly, Meteofrance only say Hondo peaked at 120kts (this is based on a 10 minute average though wheras JTWC base windspeeds on a 1 minute average). I wonder why the JTWC have Hondo weakening currently- it certainly looks very healthy to me aswell. Perhaps things will become clearer in the next advisory.

Edited February 9, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Well the JTWC has slightly increased the intensity of Hondo to 120kts this morning. Hondo is tracking southeastward at the moment but a more poleward turn is expected soon as the cyclone tracks along the western periphery of an anticyclone anchored to the west of the system. JTWC still expects Hondo to resume weakening as the cyclone begins to move over cooler waters.

[Cookie]

thanks again for the updates

[Somerset Squall]

Hondo is indeed weakening now, the JTWC have Hondo down to 110kts which is high end cat 3 strength on SS scale. Shear is increasing over Hondo and the cyclone is now over cooler waters than previously. Additionally, equatorward outflow has decreased although poleward outflow remains very good. Due to the less than favourable conditions, Hondo will continue weakening as it pushes southwards. Beyond 36hr, Hondo will push back westward in response to a building ridge from the south, and will continue to slowly weaken.

[NL]

Amazing satellite image of Hondo.

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks NL. Hondo certainly has been a very good looking cyclone throughout it's lifetime, some of the images have been amazing. However, Hondo isn't looking so good now as it continues to weaken. Hondo's current intensity is 100kts (low end cat 3) and continued weakening is forecasted due to cooler waters and diminishing equatorward outflow. The current JTWC forecast is largely the same as the previous one but the weakening has been slightly quicker than anticipated.

[Cookie]

stunning image NL!

[kold weather]

Yeah thats a cassic image of a strong system entering into lower heat content. If you look at the evolution of the system in the past 36hrs you can see that the deep convection has reduced more and more as the heat content has decreased, which of course means that the lower the heat content the less enrgy for the system to use and therefore the weaker the convection. However note that even this morning despite weakening it still has a very impressive structure with still a very obvious eyewall...however over the last 12hrs the system has rapidly weakened, amazingly the JWTC still have the system at 70kts despite the convection now being a complete mess with a distinct lack of deep convection...the JWTC was not only too slow to ramp up the wind speeds IMO they are also being way too slow to up the winds as well almost as if to make sure their forecasts aren't too far off!

Nice example though of a system with annular properties when it was at its peak and they aren't all that common to be honest.

Edited February 10, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

however over the last 12hrs the system has rapidly weakened, amazingly the JWTC still have the system at 70kts despite the convection now being a complete mess with a distinct lack of deep convection...the JWTC was not only too slow to ramp up the wind speeds IMO they are also being way too slow to up the winds as well almost as if to make sure their forecasts aren't too far off!

Meteofrance still have Hondo at 70kts aswell with a central pressure of 965mb. What would you currently estimate Hondo's intensity at? I must admit it looks a bit messy for 70kts but two agencies still think it is at 70kts.

EDIT: hang on, I've just noticed that Meteofrance have terminated advisories again and will resume them at 4.30am UTC (if my understanding of the french is correct), so the advisory may be old. It's rather frustrating because Meteofrance seems to keep terminating advisories every now and again- they did this when Hondo was near it's peak- and I haven't a clue why.

Edited February 10, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[NL]

This is how Hondo looked earlier today.

[Somerset Squall]

This is how Hondo looked earlier today.

And this is how it looks now:

Certainly has fell apart quickly and you can see why a current intensity of 70kts seems a little high! Great image anyway NL, certainly was a very attractive storm and a great one to monitor (that image is going to be my background ) . And a really good thing it didn't go near land as it was certianly was a monster of a storm.

Edited February 10, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[kold weather]

I'd put it at 50kts probably right now only because lows that deep tend to take a little whie to wind down, maybe still 55kts in the convection on the SE but even that would be heading downwards fairly sharpish now the main structure has comletely decayed.

Edited February 10, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys,

just a quick question at its hight how high would you guess the waves to be?

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks KW.

thanks for the updates guys,

just a quick question at its hight how high would you guess the waves to be?

Well don't quote me on this but I remember seeing somewhere (typical I can't remember what site it was) saying that maximum wave height was 40 feet near when Hondo was at it's peak. Colossal I'm sure you'd agree! :o

[Cookie]

yes thanks anyway :o

[kold weather]

Amazingly this morning Hondo showed signs of regeneration as covection resparked over the remaining LLC...yes amazingly enough the low level circulation is still present with Hondo all these days after it had offically decayed. Convection presetly is very sparse but it appears to have been eonugh to warrent watching it again, estimates of the wind speeds at 30kts which may be a little generous given the current convection present but not all that common for a LLC to wander for nearly a week and not open up at all, shows that the low level shear must be very weak in the basin right now not to have disrupted the circlation.

Edited February 20, 2008 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

I've been watching the remnant low of Hondo this past week and was wondering if it could re-develop at all. Condsidering Hondo ceased to be a tropical cyclone on the 12th then it would be pretty amazing if it did re-develop. Would you be able to comment on the chances KW?

[kold weather]

Well so far it does appear that Hondo has re-developed quite decently. Strong convection has once again emerged near the center as well as what appears to be a developing feeder band and there is still an obvious LLC that has remained now for a very long time and so Hondo keeps its name, since its now been re-upgraded to a tropical depression...forecasts call for it to become a severe tropical storm again, indeed if it can keep outside of the region of higher shear nearby then I wouldn't even rule out it becoming a tropical cyclone again, one to watch...

Amazing system this one!

[NL]

On the images of Ivan that was posted you could still make out

Hondo although it was just a light swirling low, here are the latest

images of Hondo reborn...!!

[Cookie]

blimey!

[Somerset Squall]

Hondo is looking better on satellite imagery and I would be surprised if JTWC didn't upgrade it to a tropical storm (35kts) by the next update. Hondo is currently giving some very heavy rains to Mauritius which could cause flooding. Hondo will give heavy rain to La Reunion in the next 24 hours too.

Current image from NAVY/NRL

[Cookie]

nice image. these systems don't like going out quietly do they!