The Great Climate Change Debate- Continued

[johnholmes]

have a look on their site it has masses on all manner of things meteorological and climatological

[jethro]

have a look on their site it has masses on all manner of things meteorological and climatological

Will do, it's late and I was trying to take the easier, lazier option of asking.

[jethro]

I've had a quick look through the press releases, I can't find anything which explains the last ten years of flat-lined temps. I have found a press release which explains the fall in temperature this year - La Nina.

It does however say "Ten-year forecasts produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre capture this levelling of global temperatures in the middle of the decade; effectively La Niña has been masking the underlying trend in rising temperatures. These same forecasts also predict we will experience continued and increased warming into the next decade, with half the years between 2009 and 2014 being warmer than the current warmest on record, 1998."

We'll see.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20080429.html

[VillagePlank]

I've had a quick look through the press releases, I can't find anything which explains the last ten years of flat-lined temps. I have found a press release which explains the fall in temperature this year - La Nina.

It does however say "Ten-year forecasts produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre capture this levelling of global temperatures in the middle of the decade; effectively La Niña has been masking the underlying trend in rising temperatures. These same forecasts also predict we will experience continued and increased warming into the next decade, with half the years between 2009 and 2014 being warmer than the current warmest on record, 1998."

We'll see.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20080429.html

That's interesting.

I'd swear blind that they released a report saying that they were expecting a very cool period from about now. Maybe I misread - I'll check it out tomorrow and report, soon!

[laserguy]

A little light relief!

http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/ipcc_oven.html

VP I'm sure you're right in that a 10-15 year period of cooling was/is anticipated,after which 'AGW would be back with a vengeance',or some such. The quote provided by Jethro from the same people is in stark contrast to that. Us mere mortals don't stand a chance,which is why of course we're still here chasing our own tails after all this time.

TWS (or anyone!),apart from the massive transfer of oceanic heat energy-which certainly didn't get there due to our CO2 - to the atmosphere of 1998's El Nino and the consequent come-down from that,what natural drivers of cooling have been at work whilst CO2 input has been concurrently going through the roof?

[jethro]

That's interesting.

I'd swear blind that they released a report saying that they were expecting a very cool period from about now. Maybe I misread - I'll check it out tomorrow and report, soon!

If you find anything can you post it please, I'd like to see it too. Not saying it isn't there, just couldn't find anything.

[VillagePlank]

Jethro's link does speak of expected low temperatures due to La Nina, but I'm sure I read a more detailed prediction of effectively "GW stops for 4/5 years due to natural variability" from them.

Can't find it, though, so, I'll keep digging.

EDIT: Here's more detailed information on the MetO Science report.

EDIT2: Here demonstrates 'long' periods of plateau or falling temperatures (whilst still following an underlying upward trend) througout the next decade(ish)

Edited August 13, 2008 by VillagePlank

[noggin]

I've been looking for it too, without any luck so far. Perhaps it has been whisked away! :lol: Only joking, folks! :lol:

I did come across this very useful summary of predictions though....from that font of all climatological knowledge...HM Treasury!

I hope it lets me link to it...

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/5/7/So...2nd_October.pdf

[James M]

The only thing I can find is an article from the BBC how there may be no warming this next decade.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7376301.stm

[stewfox]

i dont know what to believe anymore! so many stories, i don't believe any of it, ill wait and see what happens.

Some people would suggest if we wait and see what happens, it’s too late when it happens to do anything about it

However I’ve never seen a ‘warmest’ offer solutions rather then meaningless ‘let’s cut CO2 by 90%’, type stuff

The point is people like to alarm for alarm sake

It’s a bit like debating the out come of a football game before its been played

Sure you can guess on team performance and know the rules before you start but at some point the ‘debate’ is pointless until things happen on the pitch

Clearly if one team is 3-0 down at half time then the debate can take on a more serious stance (ie 25 yrs of global warming etc) Of course doing stuff when the team is 3-0 maybe too late

[Thundery wintry showers]

TWS (or anyone!),apart from the massive transfer of oceanic heat energy-which certainly didn't get there due to our CO2 - to the atmosphere of 1998's El Nino and the consequent come-down from that,what natural drivers of cooling have been at work whilst CO2 input has been concurrently going through the roof?

The most obvious explanation I can give is the fact that 1998 had an exceptional El Nino, which inflated global temperature by about 0.2C relative to the values in 1997 and 1999. Since then, we have had a couple of pronounced La Nina events and only weak El Nino events, which should, all other things being equal, make the period 1999-2007 about 0.2C cooler than 1998. In reality it's tended to be about 0.1C cooler, suggesting that there's probably still an underlying warming trend, but probably slower than some earlier decades (only 0.1C/decade instead of 0.2-0.3C).

As for Stewfox's comment about what we do about it, I do sympathise with aspects of the view, as I don't agree with most of the orthodox views on environmental policymaking. However, I have plenty of my own ideas on alternative ways, which aim to reduce consumption in ways that minimise the amount of sacrifices that humans will have to make to achieve these reductions, and even a detailed manifesto on my own website about it. Whether my ideas will be workable is open to question, but other ideas certainly do exist.

[Anti-Mild]

"...... with half the years between 2009 and 2014 being warmer than the current warmest on record, 1998."

No chance! Given that NASA issued a press release stating that they expect a period of global cooling over the next decade then I think that we may be lucky to have 1 year higher than 1998.

It's just my layman's opinion, but I cant see 1998 being beaten any time in the next 30 years.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Metoffice are a warmist faction if you ask me :lol: No seriously though I think they'll be wrong but there may well be warm year if Roger or GWO are correct re El nino for around 2010 - 2012

BFTP

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the MetO might well end up being wide of the mark unless we get a couple of El Nino episodes. If this does turn out to be true, it's not a sign of them being pro-AGW but more a symptom of the difficulties in forecasting short-term global temperature changes. I think there's a fair chance of 1998 not being beaten for another 5-10 years, but 30 is only likely if we are genuinely seeing a stalling of the warming trend and not just a temporary fluctuation.

[VillagePlank]

If you find anything can you post it please, I'd like to see it too. Not saying it isn't there, just couldn't find anything.

Nope, I can't either. Maybe I was dreaming. it could've been the HM Treasury report, though, and I've mis associated with the MetO. Apologies!

[Iceberg]

I think it might happen, (the meto stat). Even though the natural cycles would say otherwise.

But I'd agree trends are much easier to predict than what's going to happen in 5 years time. I'd think they were talking about probabilistic chances.

[jethro]

Nope, I can't either. Maybe I was dreaming. it could've been the HM Treasury report, though, and I've mis associated with the MetO. Apologies!

Thanks VP but no need for apologies; there was more than an evens chance I'd had a sleepy idiot moment and missed it.

Can't personally see they Meto prediction of a year warmer than 1998 within the next five years, coming to fruition. Not without a major El Nino anyway, difficult to imagine given the PDO shift, not sure it would be that relevant anyway if a temperature spike was due to that.

Completely off topic - went to the Tutankhamen exhibition and 3D movie at the O2 yesterday, it was very good, worth a visit if you get the chance.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Hi folks. Recently I wondered aloud what the effect might be of the current eruption of Kasatochi on Arctic Ice melt over on that thread and I just thought Id' update you as I have more information on this now. I thought I'd post it here as it may have ramifications later, especially as this eruption is ongoing (indeed there has been an upturn in seismic activity over the last 24 hours which suggests more to come.) and this could, in combination with other eruptions that are ongoing at the moment have a climactic impact if this trend continues.

It has now been revealed that the ongoing eruption of Kasatochi has erupted the most SO2 since the eruption of the Chilean volcano, Cerro Hudson in 1991. To put that in context, that particular eruption of Cerro Hudson was one of the largest in the 20th century being a VEI5 on on the Volcanic Explosivity Index scale which is classified as a 'Plinian' or 'paroxcysmal' eruption i.e. the same scale as Mount St Helens in 1980. Below is an image from the OMI instrument aboard the AURA satellite showing the widespread extent of the SO2 cloud, measured in Dobson Units. The Dobson Unit scale is a logarithmic one i.e. each increment is an exponential increase. To put that in perspective, the normal background rate due to pollution is usually less than 1DU but as you can see from the image there are large areas well above that and a particularly concentrated area on the SE Alaska/NW Canada border.

In addition, I would like to add that there has been a very recent change to the eruptive behaviour of Chaiten in Chile. This volcano started erupting again in May of this year, after lying dormant for 9500 years. Until very recently, the ash from this volcano has been very high in silica content and low in SO2, however, in recent weeks there has been a significant change in seismic activity and at first this was believed to signify a 'quietening down' of the eruption and perhaps it was coming to an end. In the last 24 hours or so, however the eruptive activity has started to increase although there has, as yet, been little or no explosive activity. Whats significant about that you may ask, well, the analysys of the ash from this new erutpive phase has shown that it is now very low in silica and much higher in SO2. This suggests that whats has happened is the initial eruption which began in May was a "cleaning of the flue" episode in which old magma, rock etc which had been lying lodged in the quiescent volcano was erupted, then the volcano went quiet for a while and now what is being erupted is new magma from much deeper down which has now reached the surface, that is the current assessment from Chiles geological institute, SERNAGEOMIN. They are now saying that it is entirely possible that this new eruptive phase, with its much higher SO2 content, could potentially be the beginning of a prolonged eruptive cycle lasting several years.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting article this one

Sunpots no more?

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

I think one of those Alaskan volcanoes will have to erupt full-scale to have much effect on climate. It was said that Katmai's eruption caused a downturn in 1912, but whenever I look into volcanic dust veil coolings, I find something very interesting -- the cooling starts before the volcano erupts in many cases. Now I don't postulate that cooling causes a volcanic eruption, but perhaps some external driver places stress on both the atmosphere and the lithosphere.

The most conspicuous example, everyone thinks Krakatoa caused a big cooling in 1883, but if you look at temperatures taken at Toronto from December 1882 to May 1883 you'll see that six months of very sharp cooling took place then, almost a year before the volcano erupted.

We have the same signal at present, it already turned colder in North America in general then these Alaskan volcanoes started to become active. I posted a picture over on the volcano thread showing the thin layers of volcanic ash suspended over the west coast of N America here, basically it looks like a grey cirro-cumulus layer that appears to be around 20,000 feet above our heads in streaks. It isn't having any cooling effect, actually it is quite hot outside here (near 30 C).

The climate analogue seems to be the 1840s, a very wet decade according to the Toronto records which had just started up. The total rainfalls in 1842 and 1843 were both almost twice the long-term averages and remain the highest in the series, although this year will make a run at the record after a record wet June-July and lots of rain so far in August as well. Temperatures in eastern Canada are probably hanging around just shy of average but there has been no real heat, just a steady progression of near-normal warm spells and near-normal wet spells although with daily max well below average and min above average. In the western half of Canada things have been closer to normal and possibly a bit above in British Columbia, and rather dry too. The western arctic has not been unusually warm but the eastern arctic has, recently at least.

The most anomalous feature I can see is the complete absence of the cold Labrador current. This has been missing in action all summer and water temperatures around Newfoundland are warmer than around the British Isles which is very unusual, quite often they are 11-13 C and a dense fog hangs over the Grand Banks all summer long. Anomalous warmth keeps spreading into the western Atlantic, then the jet stream is just falling apart as it moves east and so these strong lows can't get enough traction to move north of the British Isles, hence you are stuck in the downwind aftermath of this unusual North American circulation, low after low just stalls out in the usual winter position and drifts across the northern half of the British Isles. This pattern could change to more of a ridge later this month.

As to the sunspot predictions, this still remains to be seen -- a three year quiet spell is not totally unprecedented between relatively normal peaks, but it is looking more and more like a 20-40 year minimum event in the making. However, as the best analogue for this could be 1796-1827 and not the Maunder, the relevant questions would be answered by comparing that thirty years to perhaps 1715-1795 which was quite active and similar to the 20th century for solar activity. That was in general a colder climatic period than the 20th century, but I don't see much signs of a relative cooling in the CET after 1796, although there continued to be some very cold winters and there was also the 1816-19 volcanic cooling event thrown into the mix. So I am not sure if we can say that this Dalton minimum really demonstrated much atmospheric cooling or not. And there is the random variability factor, it could just be time for things to cool off anyway, regardless of solar activity.

[The PIT]

Interesting article this one

Sunpots no more?

BFTP

Now that's alarmist the other way. At the moment we seem to be waiting for what's going happen next. As ever time will tell.

[noggin]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressrele...4.shtml#history

The Beeb is doing 3 1hour programmes in the Autumn ......History of Climate Change. It covers the last 30 years so it's not HUGELY historical, more topical if you ask me, which no-one did.

It looks as if it will cover everything that gets covered here......though I'm concerned about about how impartial they will be, even though the press release shows that the political aspect of the issue will be covered.

Will it be the usual BBC AGW tripe or will they surprise us all? Time will tell.....

Interesting article this one

Sunpots no more?

BFTP

The predictions that a cooldown of note is coming are becoming more widespread. If you check out my lovely HM Treasury link on the previous page, there is much support for a Dalton- or even a Maunder-style minimum in the not too distant future. :unsure:

[Mondy]

Interesting article this one

Sunpots no more?

BFTP

This may interest you too

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This may interest you too

Interesting to see what their update is...surely a continuance of their expectations?

Roger interesting point you bring up re cooling AND THEN volcanic eruptions. Could this all be linked to the weakening magnetic field from the sun as sunspots lessen and die away? A minima of at least Dalton proportions are on the cards here but what will this bring...for me pieces of the jigsaw are beginning to fit together.

BFTP

[VillagePlank]

Interesting article this one

Sunpots no more?

BFTP

Interesting, and, on the face of it, credible, article