Virtual Storm Chase 4

[pottyprof]

Cheers for that NL mate.. That Cell has very impressive structure. Would like to see more but its me bed time.. TTFN!!

[NL]

Nite Potty, i'm wanting to go to bed, but that Lamesa cell looks like it may spring something.

Tis great stream from Dennis Sherrods , all great streaming this evening.

Edited April 24, 2008 by NL

[Nick F]

A small MODERATE risk area over central Kansas and south-central Nebraska today, quick glance at the model parameters of CAPE/Tds, SR helicity and wind shear and I think I'm going to target Great Bend, KS, place always seemed to get clobbered by tornadic storms when we were there.

[NL]

Ten reported tornadoes yesterday http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html Seems Nicks position came out top yesterday for tornado sightings

Today's moderate risk for central Kansas and southern South Dakota has my target placement

at Dodge City, Kansas.

Edited April 24, 2008 by NL

[Paul Sherman]

Going to be Joining Nick In Great Bend today as this is Centrally Located between 2 areas that should fire tonight. Absolute Dump of a Place but has a Good Mcdonalds The Southern Play may be a bit later and Nocturnal Tornado threat, whereas the Northern Cells should get going earlier maybe around 00z, not too unlike last years Greensburg day which had 2 areas and we got stuck in the Middle, obviously Supercell Parameters not as Big as that day but should be the best day of the year so far for Photogenic Supercells, if only this was next week!!

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Going to be Joining Nick In Great Bend today as this is Centrally Located between 2 areas that should fire tonight. Absolute Dump of a Place but has a Good Mcdonalds :lol:

Paul S

Sounds good enough for me.. A few big macs and the wifi will make for a good chomping session. Which of the 2 areas will be the best to chase though? Case of wait and see.. Fries anyone?

[Hilton]

Bit of a let down in the end yesterday. We got in a good position for the storms moving though Albeline and along I-20, but from our location we couldn't find roads that could get us close enough safely (the visibility was zero in the proximity of the tornadoes when we were close). We then followed the cell that developed SE of that near Lipan but again the roads weren't great/were flooded. Saw lots of trees and powerlines down 5 miles west of Lipan and some roofs off but the rain meant we could only see about 5m so had to give up on it.

Today's plan is to head a bit north of OKC at 3.30 and wait around there. Sadly don't have time for a trip to Kansas, but the two RUC runs look promising for precip through N OK and the helicity is promising as well. Not overly optimistic, but it's worth a shot.

Two pics from yesterday.

This was about half a mile a head of the gust front and the bulk of the storm (we could see dust blowing along the field and overtaking cars on the road so we moved shortly after this!)

This was just outside of Hawley (sp?). Based on the warnings/radar/report the tornado was somewhere in the mass of rain along the front of the storm but we didn't really fancy driving in there. The greenish sky on the left was amazing, as it got close the entire sky was beautifully turquoise - never seen anything like it before.

[pottyprof]

Beautiful photos there Hilton..

We were following a few of the chasers live and it did look a bit messy in places with the poor visibility. Such is the luck of the draw on days like that i suppose.. :lol:

[Hilton]

Norman forecast office have just posted this: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/briefing/ounbrief.php

Sounds promising!

[Gorky]

Whilst 'd love to take the chance on a more southern target, given uncertainties over initiation, I'll plump for Hays, Ks as my starting location. I certanly don't disagree with starting south of the moderate risk area though as that could really pay off if things fire early enough. Last nights WRF shwoed a nice supercell crossing from Dodge City to Wichita.

[Nick F]

Latest RUC output does look promising for south central OK up to north central OK, these appears to be the central axis of the theta-e/Td plume advecting north into central KS this evening - plus some good 0-3km SR helicity values, all you need is the forcing to break the cap:

[Cookie]

The full list of the 14 that hit yesterday

there were 14 Tornado Reports Yesterday*| Today | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) 	Strength 	Location 	County 	State 	Lat 	Lon 	Comments
1954 	UNK 	4 S ROTAN 	FISHER 	TX 	32.8 	-100.46 	(SJT)
1956 	UNK 	1 S SNYDER 	SCURRY 	TX 	32.7 	-100.92 	(MAF)
2040 	UNK 	5 SW ROBY 	FISHER 	TX 	32.7 	-100.44 	(SJT)
2053 	UNK 	14 S LAMESA 	DAWSON 	TX 	32.53 	-101.96 	BELOW
TORNADO REPORTED ON HWY 137 BTW ACKERLY AND PATRICIA. (MAF)
2057 	UNK 	14 SE LAMESA 	DAWSON 	TX 	32.59 	-101.79 	BELOW
REPORTED BY GREG MORGAN CH7 357-401PM CDT (MAF)
2110 	UNK 	4 SW ANSON 	JONES 	TX 	32.72 	-99.94 	(SJT)
2129 	UNK 	8 WSW HAWLEY 	JONES 	TX 	32.57 	-99.94 	(SJT)
2153 	UNK 	5 SW LUEDERS 	JONES 	TX 	32.75 	-99.68 	(SJT)
2225 	UNK 	8 NE BARNSDALL 	OSAGE 	OK 	36.64 	-96.06 	BELOW
BRIEF TORNADO OVER OPEN COUNTRY REPORTED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT DIRECTOR (TSA)
2230 	UNK 	4 ENE ALBANY 	SHACKELFORD 	TX 	32.75 	-99.23 	(SJT)
2340 	UNK 	BRIDGEPORT 	MORRILL 	NE 	41.67 	-103.1 	BELOW
2 TORNADOS REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN BRIDGEPORT AND DALTON AND WAS REPORTED AT 532 PM. (CYS)
2352 	UNK 	7 S BRIDGEPORT 	MORRILL 	NE 	41.57 	-103.1 	BELOW
MARBLE HAIL AND SOME TORBADO DAMAGE. (CYS)
2356 	UNK 	9 NNE MORGAN MILL 	PALO PINTO 	TX 	32.51 	-98.11 	BELOW
TORNADO ON THE GROUND 5 MILES WEST OF LIPAN (FWD)
0000 	UNK 	6 S BRIDGEPORT 	MORRILL 	NE 	41.58 	-103.1 	BELOW
IN OPEN FIELD NO DAMAGE ABOUT 2 MILES FROM HOUSE. (CYS)

and the one so far for today

There have been 1 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) 	Strength 	Location 	County 	State 	Lat 	Lon 	Comments
2147 	UNK 	4 N BANCROFT 	KOSSUTH 	IA 	43.35 	-94.22 	BELOW
NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWY 169 AND 410TH. REPORTED BY MINNESOTA DEPUTY DRIVING THROUGH KOSSUTH COUNTY. (DMX)

[Paul Sherman]

1st Cell of the Day and just West of the Moderate Risk box near to Goodland (Ks)

Paul S

MD Issued just before that cell went up, way way behind the dryline atm though

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0533 PM CDT THU APR 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242233Z - 250000Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SW NEB AND NW KS OVER THE

NEXT HOUR AS STORMS INITIATE. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A

THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT

MAY ALSO DEVELOP. A WW SHOULD BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER

THE NEXT 30 TO 60 MINUTES.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS WRN AND

CNTRL NEB WITH A SFC LOW OVER SERN CO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING

NE OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS FAR ERN CO WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A

WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION. THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS ALSO

LOCATED IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET. AS THIS

JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL

SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH

SUPERCELLS DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST

SOUNDINGS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES MAY ALSO

DEVELOP WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.

[Nick F]

7 tornado reports so far over KS, all north of the I-70, one destroying a house, some touching down very recently in the dark :

2147  4 N BANCROFT  KOSSUTH  IA 4335 9422 NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWY 169 AND 410TH. REPORTED BY MINNESOTA DEPUTY DRIVING THROUGH KOSSUTH COUNTY. (DMX) 
0236  1 N MORLAND  GRAHAM  KS 3936 10007 BRIEF TORNADO REPORT FORWARDED BY KAKE (GLD) 
0342  4 S STOCKTON  ROOKS  KS 3938 9927 BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN (GID) 
0350  4 S WOODSTON  ROOKS  KS 3940 9910 BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OBSERVED BY STORM CHASER (GID) 
0514  3 N BELOIT  MITCHELL  KS 3951 9811 AT LEAST ONE HOME DESTROYED (GID) 
0526  3 N BELOIT  MITCHELL  KS 3951 9811 CONE SHAPED TORNADO AROUND 1/3 TO 1/2 MILE WIDE AT BASE. NUMEROUS POWER FLASHES VISIBLE. ROOF GONE OFF 1 HOME AND OUTBUILDING DESTROYED. (GID) 
0537  6 NE BELOIT  MITCHELL  KS 3953 9803 NUMEROUS POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN ALONG WITH SHED DESTROYED AT FARM. (GID) 
0626  7 SW AGENDA  CLOUD  KS 3964 9752 BRIEF TORNADO ABOUT 2 OR 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF AMES. LASTED 1 TO 2 MINUTES. (TOP)

Think if I were chasing the SLGT risk today, I'd position in E or NE TX given the 2% tornado risk area is either here or up IA/IL/MO way. Having said that, it would be a long haul from yesterday's target of Great Bend, KS - so Ern KS or Ern OK maybe an option - but then again tomorrow's best risk is in TX anyway. Another SLGT tomorrow over TX, then on Sunday the cold front sweeps SE with storms over TX, but the storms look to clear before we land.

Atm, looking at GFS progs, we may have to haul butt up into the Nern Plains to see any action later in the week.

[Roger J Smith]

The models are a bit slow with storm chasing opportunities next week but I would remain hopeful because they have also tended to be too slow with progressive development this week. All it would take would be for the juicy dynamics wasted over Utah and Arizona to move a bit faster east midweek and you're looking at a big outbreak over northwest Texas and western OK/KS. I would not be surprised if this comes off. Otherwise, you'll be able to work on your tans and look into that polygamy business.

[Paul Sherman]

You not seeing the 3 day Outbreak I am seeing Roger then ??

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

Only from the polygamy compound

[Nick F]

Noticed someone on Stormtrack has already started a thread in the forecast area for Thursday 1st May's severe potential over KS/MO/OK/AR/TX

No downgrades now please ...

[kold weather]

Well we've got a tornado on the ground right now:

AT 521 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED MULTIPLE FUNNELS

ON THE GROUND 3 MILES WEST OF WYOCENA. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED

NEAR WYOCENA...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORTAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

42 MPH.

Edit---seems like its a powerful tornado at that, looks pretty severe on radar.

Edited April 25, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

3 more below

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/

There have been 3 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) 	Strength 	Location 	County 	State 	Lat 	Lon 	Comments
2037 	UNK 	5 N ATALISSA 	CEDAR 	IA 	41.65 	-91.15 	BELOW
LIKELY TORNADO OBSERVED NORTHEAST OF EXIT NUMBER 265 ON I-80 /ATALISSA TRUCK STOP/. REPORTED BY IOWA STATE PATROL. (DVN)
2031 	UNK 	ATALISSA 	MUSCATINE 	IA 	41.57 	-91.17 	BELOW
POSSIBLE TORNADO CAUSED DAMAGE TO FARMS. (DVN)
1837 	UNK 	4 WSW FLORIS 	DAVIS 	IA 	40.85 	-92.4 	BELOW
PUBLIC SIGHTING OF POSSIBLE TORNADO IN AREA. ALSO TREES DOWN AND A ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF...GARAGE POSSIBLY DOWN IN AREAS 1 MILE WEST OF FLORIS TURNOFF OF HWY 63...TO TURNO (DMX)

[kold weather]

Radar seems to be suggesting that Markesan (population about 1400 people) may have got a direct hit from the rotation, hopefully thats not the case and it just missed.

Edit---heard that there is widespread damage...

Edited April 25, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

Radar seems to be suggesting that Markesan (population about 1400 people) may have got a direct hit from the rotation, hopefully thats not the case and it just missed.

Edit---heard that there is widespread damage...

any local tv stations in the area of webcams?

[Roger J Smith]

Looks like the chase will definitely be north at first, Monday to Wednesday opportunities are somewhat limited and lie more in line with warm front of developing hot wedge over high plains, so central Kansas to northeast OK possibly? May be rather dry here, the warm sector just looks hot/dry to Thursday. That's when all he** breaks loose on the GEM model at least, Thursday evening looks very similar to last year's Greensburg episode.

Will post something about the more immediate prospects for the weekend later this morning.

Don't forget they drive on the right (when sober) in the U.S.A.

[Gorky]

Looks like the chase will definitely be north at first, Monday to Wednesday opportunities are somewhat limited and lie more in line with warm front of developing hot wedge over high plains, so central Kansas to northeast OK possibly? May be rather dry here, the warm sector just looks hot/dry to Thursday. That's when all he** breaks loose on the GEM model at least, Thursday evening looks very similar to last year's Greensburg episode.

Will post something about the more immediate prospects for the weekend later this morning.

Don't forget they drive on the right (when sober) in the U.S.A.

Certainly moisture is an issue until dewpoints recover midweek. I wasn't expecting much in the way of severe into Ks until wednesday myself but it would be nice if there was something to drag me that way earlier rather than have to do an entire travel day to position. I think the only threats will be hail for the first few day unless we get storms firing in south central TX where dews havn't been completely wiped out.

[Gorky]

Today looks interesting. 5% tor probabilities out for the Tx panhandle east towards Wichita Falls. The WRF seems keen on firing convection as night falls east of a line from Lubbock to Amarillo and moving the storms east towards WF by midnight. I'll be landing at about 6:00pm so I'll only have a couple of hours to get anywhere before darkness but a chase tonight is feasible I guess. I'll have to see if I can get any sleep on the plane at all, otherwise it's probably out of the quetion due to tiredness

Tentative plan therefore is to aim for Wichita Falls once I am in the car and see what happens from there. Hardest part will be driving past the cow Camp steakhouse without stopping if I do head that way

Hmm.. I've just thought, this probably shoudln't be in 'Virtual' storm chase anymore

Edited April 26, 2008 by Gorky