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Day 9 - Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Another Slight Risk for 6th May - We will be refining our Chase Target after Breakfast

    post-24-1210079521_thumb.png

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0745 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008

    VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A LARGE

    PART OF THE GREAT PLAINS...

    ...SRN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

    DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL

    OR EXPERIMENTAL HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATED

    OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS W/NW TX. THIS HAS PRODUCED A LARGE

    AGGREGATE COLD POOL ACROSS A LARGE PART OF KS INTO OK AND THE TX

    PANHANDLE/NW TX...AND IMPEDED THE NWD RETURN OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL

    MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM

    THE OVERNIGHT STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX

    AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WHILE

    SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE COLD POOL WILL BE NECESSARY FOR

    SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER N ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND TX

    PANHANDLE REGION.

    MEANWHILE...THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA WILL

    PROGRESS EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO FAR W TX AND SE NM BY

    THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS WAVE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS

    WILL OCCUR INITIALLY INVOF SE CO...WITH GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION INTO A

    PRIMARY CYCLONE INVOF THE SE TX PANHANDLE BY 07/12Z. A DRYLINE WILL

    BECOME ESTABLISHED AND MIX EWD FROM ERN NM INTO W TX THIS

    AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS APPEAR A LITTLE TOO

    AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EWD MOTION OF THE DRYLINE. A CONTINUED INFLUX

    OF MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS /FROM S OF THE STALLED OUTFLOW

    BOUNDARY/ AND DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

    WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY E OF THE

    DRYLINE /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/. AT THE SAME TIME...A

    GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW...AS WELL AS INCREASING SLY

    LLJ THIS EVENING...WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR

    SUPERCELLS.

    WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE

    AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION.

    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND EFFECTIVE SRH

    INCREASING TO 200-300 M2/S2 BY THIS EVENING COULD SUPPORT A FEW

    TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY FROM SW KS AND THE ERN TX

    PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO W/NW TX...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSECTION THE

    DRYLINE AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

    OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE SUPERCELLS.

    THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OVER THE SRN HIGH

    PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. A RETREATING DRYLINE AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE

    STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT RELATIVELY

    WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER W TX TONIGHT. THIS

    CONVECTION WILL THEN PROGRESS EWD INTO NW TX AND WRN OK DURING THE

    EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS

    AND HAIL.

    ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

    A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE

    GENERALLY EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE

    TONIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE

    LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR

    IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER REGION

    TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH NW WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

    MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE

    HAMPERED BY THE IMPACTS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN

    KS/OK/TX. STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 45-55

    F AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES

    OF 500-1000 J/KG.

    STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY AND

    VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND

    DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WILL CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING

    THE SURFACE LOW. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ GREATER

    INSTABILITY SWD INTO NEB ALONG THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD

    SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    hi Paul S and the rest of the gang. been checking out the setup this morning and still looking quiet, so fingers crossed there will be a change in the coming huors for something worth chasing :)

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    hi Paul S and the rest of the gang. been checking out the setup this morning and still looking quiet, so fingers crossed there will be a change in the coming huors for something worth chasing :)

    When you mean by 'quiet' i suspect you mean no or few tornadoes, certainly wont be quiet

    amongst those storms..!!(crash, bang, wallop) Looking better than yesterdays set-up here's hoping you sight a tornado lads.. :)

    Latest visible satellite image.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

    Chase Target Sorted over Breakfast, going to be heading south on Highway 83 from Liberal down the Eastern Texas Panhandle towards Childress to have lunch there. Looking much better than yesterday for Tornadoes along the Dryline, we will be looking for a Bulge and old OFB (Outflow Boundaries for Initiation) probably wont be much before 00z today.

    Paul S

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    yep, i meant quiet on the tornado front, things changed a bit since last post

    forecast for Childress TX

    Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Breezy, with a south wind between 15 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph

    hope you get some storm action out of that

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    this looks good

    WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE

    AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION.

    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND EFFECTIVE SRH

    INCREASING TO 200-300 M2/S2 BY THIS EVENING COULD SUPPORT A FEW

    TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY FROM SW KS AND THE ERN TX

    PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO W/NW TX...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSECTION THE

    DRYLINE AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

    OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE SUPERCELLS.

    NOAA/SPC VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I think Childress is a good target because there is probably a fairly good chance of a developnig chase situation in any direction from there after 18z. Very high thickness values developing for 00z around Amarillo to Dalhart suggest that either side of this line may become focus for tornadic development, either on dry line or stalled P front (leading edge of high dew point tropical air into sw KS and w OK). And/or there could be supercell development somewhat to southwest of Childress after 21z. Whatever does manage to build up will then remain quite severe well into the night as better dynamic forcing arrives with upper low accelerating into the vicinity. Keeping an eye on it although not expecting very rapid development with the moisture field so evenly mixed at present.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    Chase Target Sorted over Breakfast, going to be heading south on Highway 83 from Liberal down the Eastern Texas Panhandle towards Childress to have lunch there. Looking much better than yesterday for Tornadoes along the Dryline, we will be looking for a Bulge and old OFB (Outflow Boundaries for Initiation) probably wont be much before 00z today.

    Paul S

    if nothing else Paul and team its improving my USA geography!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire, England
  • Location: Leicestershire, England

    My Target is South Eastern New Mexico into Texas - 15z RUC confirms this ...

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    SPC have upgraded their forecast with a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms on the Kansas Nebraska border and now a 10% chance of a tornado around W Texas.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.
  • Location: Long Stratton Norfolk: Tornado Hot Spot.

    we are heading Seminoe south of lubbock Tx , good luck teams

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Interesting to see the different ideas that are on option, theres a large slight zone with also a smaller moderate regon that has being upped since last night. Looks like everyone on here is going for the southern option rather then moderate zone, because it seems like the risk of tornadoes is higher in that southern zone, esp in western Texas which seems to be where most people are ready and setting up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

    I'm in Brownfield at the moment. Just seen one Cloud 9 Chase tour go past me. Looks like I may have come too far east in my rush this morning as I slept in real late and had no data this morning. I guess I might end up heading back in pretty much the same way I just came :p

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    My current assessment, eastern TX panhandle to far west OK may be good for later tornadic storm development, Lubbock area currently inhibited by widespread low level cloud that will lift slowly this afternoon, dry line pushing into far s.e. NM may trigger before 00z west of Plainview to Amarillo, meanwhile also good prospects sw KS from developing cells in se CO.

    If it were me, I would take the chance on staying between Amarillo and Clinton OK where I think the chances of seeing tornadic storms is higher than other areas. Initiation likely around 2030z with max around 23z.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Mesoscale Discussion concerning severe potential

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0127 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008

    AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND WRN TX THROUGH ERN NM

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 061827Z - 062100Z

    STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX...INITIALLY

    OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND LATER FARTHER NWD

    ACROSS ERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO

    BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE

    BY EARLY EVENING.

    SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ADVECTED LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO SWRN TX

    AND SERN NM. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING HAS

    RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

    SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NW

    MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST

    AXIS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG

    OVER SWRN TX INTO SERN NM. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED CUMULUS HAS

    BEEN INCREASING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS

    BEING AUGMENTED BY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS INITIATION

    MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA BY 20Z AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SWLY

    MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER SWRN TX-SERN NM INTO THE EVENING

    AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET

    ROTATING THROUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. SELY LOW

    LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY AND INCREASING THROUGH 500 MB WILL RESULT

    IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS. THE

    20+ DEGREES LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS AND MODEST LOW

    LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN

    INITIAL THREATS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO

    STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS...AND

    THIS WILL PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES BEFORE THE

    BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATER IN THE EVENING.

    ..DIAL.. 05/06/2008

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Tornado watch issued by SPC.

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 267

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    330 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO

    WEST TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL

    1000 PM CDT.

    TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

    GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

    AREAS.

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

    MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

    FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANNON AFB NEW

    MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

    WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 265...WW 266...

    DISCUSSION...CU IS INCREASING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER EXTREME

    SOUTHEAST NM. RECENT OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA MODIFIED WITH CURRENT

    SURFACE OBS SUGGEST AIRMASS IS GENERALLY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES

    OVER 1500 J/KG. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE

    DRYLINE WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW

    TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.

    AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

    SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

    WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

    500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I've noticed in the past hour that the area of low cloud that was centered over Lubbock has begun to break up and drift north towards Amarillo. I'm expecting the cell train to begin now in a northward direction, and would suggest a location between Clovis and Plainview -- there may eventually be more further east too.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
    The storm NW of Odessa has just gone severe..

    post-1669-1210109198_thumb.jpg

    Stu Robinson is live streaming nearing this cell Paul http://www.severestudios.com/livechase .. Havent heard off the team dont know their whereabouts. Should imagine not to far away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    My current assessment, eastern TX panhandle to far west OK may be good for later tornadic storm development, Lubbock area currently inhibited by widespread low level cloud that will lift slowly this afternoon, dry line pushing into far s.e. NM may trigger before 00z west of Plainview to Amarillo, meanwhile also good prospects sw KS from developing cells in se CO.

    If it were me, I would take the chance on staying between Amarillo and Clinton OK where I think the chances of seeing tornadic storms is higher than other areas. Initiation likely around 2030z with max around 23z.

    Thanks for your input Roger. It helps watchers from afar like myself. Can I ask what time zones that you are quoting? Thanks

    c

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    In my posts,

    z = GMT

    The Texas panhandle is far western CDT so effectively the local time is five hours behind GMT, or six hours behind BST.

    But effectively it is more like six and a half hours behind due to the longitude, if you're trying to work out what part of the daily cycle these storms are in -- and the climatology is that most of these outbreaks flare up around 00z and produce some of their worst severe weather around 01-02z. However, the storms that chasers like better are earlier developers that have better lighting and also less problems with visibility.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    In my posts,

    z = GMT

    The Texas panhandle is far western CDT so effectively the local time is five hours behind GMT, or six hours behind BST.

    But effectively it is more like six and a half or behind due to the longitude, if you're trying to work out what part of the daily cycle these storms are in -- and the climatology is that most of these outbreaks flare up around 00z and produce some of their worst severe weather around 01-02z. However, the storms that chasers like better are earlier developers that have better lighting and also less problems with visibility.

    Thanks Roger

    These storms just fire up too late for me!! Bedtime beckons. However I look forward to hearing all about them tomorrow.

    c

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    Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

    Tornado warnings on the cell just approaching Odessa TX.

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX

    514 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    SOUTHERN CRANE COUNTY IN WEST TEXAS...

    EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

    * UNTIL 545 PM CDT

    * AT 512 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF

    CORDONA LAKE...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRANE...MOVING EAST AT 36

    MPH.

    * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

    CORDONA LAKE...

    CRANE...

    A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE

    HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

    A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING

    FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    A lot of chasers are near the other storm at Seminole, sods law, but perhaps it will come up with the goods too.

    Qdessa is the place. This is 10000000000 times better than TV....Riviting!

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