Winter NAO fx

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

I give up with some people! The whole point of a "forecast" is that it is exactly that a "forecast" a prediction if you will. Its not an exact science. For me the whole point of the NAO fx is to give a taster of what might be around the corner for this winter, I dont personally take it as gospel and neither should anyone else.

[TEITS]

Well, they would be asking for a refund as according to your predictions we were supposed to be in a 100f heatwave right now!!

June was spot on and I did say hot spells in July, August. Considering its only the 10th July there is still time for these hot spells to arrive unless you happen to have a time machine and no different

I cannot see what you seem to find difficult to understand on how large utilities/companies etc do use the lrf as well as the monthly outlook or indeed the 6-15 day forecast.

Maybe we are from different planets TEITS?!

.

No we are on the same planet.

Surely someone like yourself realises that the public forecasts that we see on the Met O website are going to be different to those for which companies pay for. Im assuming the forecasts which companies pay for are going to be more detailed than what we see.

So taking this into account I stand by what I say that the PUBLIC forecasts are so vague it renders them pointless. I wish some would understand what im trying to say because im not asking for detail but at least make a forecast because the rainfall forecast is laughable.

Edited July 9, 2008 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Jack Wales]

When making a longer range prediction, you have to factor in some leeway. I see no problem with the Met forecasts, to me near or above average indicates a likelihood for higher rainfall. So with regards to being the owner of a swimming pool, I would not dash out to take on extra staff for the summer! To put it in very simplistic terms for some I envisage the Met output charts output charts read (see example)

Where the output straddles across different descriptions they are obliged to include the leeway in the forecast as they see it. I really do not see what the problem is here. If their winter forecast states “average or slightly colder than average” I would have no problem interpreting this either. The only way I would have a problem is if it states something like “On average it could be very cold or very mild”, as this would be of no use!

There is contingency built in to virtually all forecasts whether it be the AO, NAO, hurricane paths, business plans, financial projections etc etc, for weather it’s just the same.

June was spot on and I did say hot spells in July, August. Considering its only the 10th July there is still time for these hot spells to arrive unless you happen to have a time machine and no different

Teits, be honest what you actually said was record breaking heat over 100f. I hope your right but unless you know something the modles don't, i don't think we'll be seeing that in July at least.

[TEITS]

I see no problem with the Met forecasts, to me near or above average indicates a likelihood for higher rainfall.

Look at it this way the combined average rainfall in my region for June, July, August is around 160mm. So based on the Met O forecast it could be 155mm(near) or 320mm (above average). A difference of 175mm could certainly affect your plans for the summer!!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Dave. In terms of the words 'near' or 'above average' i'm sure the METO have official definitions of these when comparing to the average (as a %).

That would be the key to resolving the issue, which then gives you the figures you want to see.

But if you dont think the METO forecast is detailed enough, you could always ignore it.

Behind the scenes for commercial forecasts, i'm sure the forecast itself is more detailed, to allow companies to plan ahead. But you pay for that. You can get a free company overview over the internet, but if you want me specific details, you have to pay.

That is in itself a business, which lets not forget, the METO are also.

[johnholmes]

TEITS

I thought post 24 gave a sensible answer to your question - it seems not

As to the forecast to 'joe public' being different to what a company paying a lot of money for then I would have thought that was obvious and hardly merited comment.

As in life you get what you pay for and most on here seem to accept that what is given in the lrf by Met is a fair idea.

You are of course perfectly entitled to your view but perhaps you should make your comment to the Met O and quote them your instance for them to reply?

None of us, professional or amateur, long range or short range, are immune to making a total ---k up of it but we all have to be sensible enough to acknowledge that when we are wrong.

I tend to do it rather more than I would like but then I have always stood up and said, ok got that wrong, explained why and moved on.

That is why in my lrf(relatively short compared to trying to predict 6 months in advance) ALL the data is available for anyone to read as are my markings again for people to see and make comment if they wish.

Edited July 9, 2008 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

The way I understand the phrase near to above average is like this. Say the average is 100mm You get 115mm of rain so it's close to average but still above.

However I do remember one LRF which said nothing because the paragraph cancelled itself out.

[Gavin P]

So after the speculation, the Met Office are going for a neutral NAO;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso.../nao/index.html

And an average or mild winter, but cooler and drier than last year;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

Edited July 10, 2008 by Gavin P

[johnholmes]

I can hardly wait for a deluge of waste of time etc without actually reading what the two links show Gavin, thanks for spotting its been published, an interesting read on both links

[Mark Bayley]

I don't see what’s a waste of time about it. The met office predict around neutral NAO with temperatures being likely around average or just above. Winter being cooler then last year. I’m would not expect anything more than that considering winter is around 5 months away

[Gavin P]

With the NAO signal being so weak, its hardly surprising the forecast is vague. You can see from the graph that the NAO forecast of neutral means that the margin for error could see anything from a moderatly positive winter to moderatrly negative winter.

As you say John, some will ask what the point of this is, but the fact the signal is weak this year is interesting in itself. As long as ENSO doesn't become an issue, we should, hopefully see some better cold snaps this winter, than has been the case in the last couple.

Edited July 10, 2008 by Gavin P

[skifreak]

Interesting read, and like the sound of it. A winter slightly cooler and drier than last year (and given this summer) suggests at least the possibility of a winter not to dissimilar to last year but overall less mild and wet, perhaps due to less severe mild/wild/wet spells?

At risk of incurring the wrath of many on here, I'd happily take a re-run of last winter, a slight improvement on last winter would be fantastic. One thing, if we can just get the settled mid Feb weather after a big dump of snow instead of a SW'ly blast next time round, ta very much!

[tcc]

I think this winter will see the weakness theme in most of the teleconnections. A weak NAO, a weak El Nino, a weak westerly QBO. All we need to do now is find out what the AO, PNA and PDO is going to be!

Their September update will be the one to take note of, that will give the biggest indication of what their long range models are thinking.

[johnholmes]

yes the graph says it all, weak signal and just what weak teleconnections may mean is anybodies guess I would think.

They will have more idea by their first full issue in September so we have to wait until then.

The CFS output is interesting if you look on Extra, seems to suggest March again being colder. What it seems to do is slowly move the +ve pressure anomaly from w of the UK to e over the period November to March with another +ve area wsw of the UK in March and a -ve one over southern Europe.

Seems a feasible idea but way way ahead and I've no idea how reliable it is even relatively closer although Paul feels it has done quite well over the past 12 months or so.

Edited July 10, 2008 by johnholmes

[Nick L]

Interesting read, and like the sound of it. A winter slightly cooler and drier than last year (and given this summer) suggests at least the possibility of a winter not to dissimilar to last year but overall less mild and wet, perhaps due to less severe mild/wild/wet spells?

At risk of incurring the wrath of many on here, I'd happily take a re-run of last winter, a slight improvement on last winter would be fantastic. One thing, if we can just get the settled mid Feb weather after a big dump of snow instead of a SW'ly blast next time round, ta very much!

Unfortunately though not everybody lives in the Highlands so last winter was dreadful

I am not going to take this as fact because as we all know it is difficult to predict beyond 5 days let alone 5 months. I praise the Met Office for sticking their necks out. Even an average winter will be a nice change to the mild dross.

[kold weather]

Well with a weak signal from the North Atlantic then the ENSO signal will become more key. The problem we are going to have this winter is that at alot of the things we use to judge a winter will be close to neutral.

[Don]

Always an interesting read and will be interested to see what the September forecast points towards. At least the chances are that this Winter will be colder than the last which was a stinker! Although, March and April at least went some way to deliver the goods.

[The PIT]

A less mild winter will keep me happy might see some Snow rather than NO.

Early days and September update will be interesting.

[damianslaw]

Remember this is the first initial thoughts for the winter from the Meto and we will see 3 further updates in Sept, Oct and Nov before winter has officially started though from past experience the Meto doesn't tend to rapidly shift its stance, so I guess a fairly neutral NAO it may be. I just hope for once January will deliver the most sustained cold wintry spell of the winter, in recent years the accolade has gone to Dec or Feb. Please January beat them to the test this year.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Yep, interesting stuff, we'll see what the first proper winter fx in Sept predicts.

[mcweather]

Very much a blank canvas situation, the main thing is that there isn't a strong signal for mild and Zonal. Indeed cooler and drier than last year would suggest relatively slack circulation to me which is a prerequisite for any chance of getting the Scandi or Greenland highs to exert an influence.

Essentially I think the Meto stats aren,t giving any strong signals in any direction and because of the background warming. They will always plump for near or slightly above average, temperature wise in such a situation.

In some ways this must be the worst situation for the Meto to be in because if they have a strong signal then they can go with it. but when there isn't it's very much an anything could happen scenario. Which in turn gives them a greater chance of being wide of the mark this time round.

There are plenty of updates to come between now and Dec 1st and I await these with interest