Global Weather Oscillations

[johnholmes]

For Europe, I do foresee a good chance for cold episodes, but with the ice margin so far north around Svalbard to Novaya Zemlya, it is difficult to imagine mean monthly temperatures in the UK falling much below long-term normals. It could happen though if a particularly strong retrograde episode develops in January. I don't think this winter will involve long intervals of strong zonal flow like the past two, and I also think that any cooling episodes from inversion highs could be much colder than the past two winters when these just dragged monthly averages down a little. This could end up being one of the colder winters since 1991 for the British Isles, but I see the Atlantic sector as being a sort of holdout in a gradual shifting of the hemispheric pattern back to the past, still somewhat stuck in the "modern" anomalous condition because of the persistent ice anomaly. So this may turn out like 2006, a winter that tried to return to a colder set-up but ran out of steam when conducive patterns ran into above-normal sea surface temperature anomalies.

I guess it would be noteworthy enough if even one month came in below 3.5 in the CET, so that's about as bold a prediction as I would wish to give at this point (it would most likely be January).

I'm still on the neutral to weak el Nino followed by stronger one in 2011-12 prediction, as far as that part goes.

For Europe, two important indicator periods from my research will come as follows:

Around Nov 12-15, strong low pressure in the Iceland sector may appear to be heading for Svalbard and further northeast. This period will be critical because if it is followed by a strong northerly it may indicate the coming weakness of zonal flow, as this will be the best index period for zonality.

Around December 12-13, a major storm is likely in western Europe in general. The track this takes, and interactions with any developing arctic highs further east, will provide a key to what may follow -- if this low blasts into northern Russia and sets up a week or more of zonal flow, then a large part of cold set-up will be wasted, decreasing the chances for January to turn much colder. If this low redevelops along a more southerly-tracking jet into the Med, then it would be a good sign for rapid development of colder retrograde patterns in the heart of the winter season to come.

interesting as always to read your forecasts Roger, at least when they are in English so that simpletons like me can understand them, genuinely though thanks for that, as ever time will tell.

[Paul]

One way to criticize predictions or forecasts is to wait until they have failed. That great "Ha Ha" moment.

Another is to damn them before they have even been tested.

What is happening here?

I don't see any damning of the theory, I'm simply saying that imo he's damaged his credibility by trying to jump on a bandwagon it would have been better to stay clear of.

interesting as always to read your forecasts Roger, at least when they are in English so that simpletons like me can understand them, genuinely though thanks for that, as ever time will tell.

Agreed, thanks Roger.

[stormchaser1]

Evening Roger

Ive just read your post , [very interesting ]

i noticed you mentioned around the 12th december, [ive been looking at this date for quite some time] ,

and your prediction for a major storm , coincides with the FULL MOON / MOON IN PERIGEE/ {on the same day} also the moon will be at its closet point for the whole year./ also this coincides with the spring tides as well

{my apologies if this is in the wrong thread}

nigel

[Cycles]

I don't see any damning of the theory, I'm simply saying that imo he's damaged his credibility by trying to jump on a bandwagon it would have been better to stay clear of.

I certainly did not mean to offend anyone, and if I did I apologize if my message was not clearly worded.

I did not put out a forecast for the UK and I do not plan to. As I explained earlier; If a forecast for a marginal arm winter as based on the mean temperatures from the cooler 1970 to 2000 period, then it could mean the marginally warm winter may actually be cooler than the mean temperature period from 2000 to 2007 which was a very warm period.

I was not critizing their forecast...just pointing out the difference in mean temperatures during a cool period and warm period.

I hold the UK Met in high regards and also NOAA NWS in the United States.

[VillagePlank]

For Europe, two important indicator periods from my research will come as follows:

Around Nov 12-15, strong low pressure in the Iceland sector may appear to be heading for Svalbard and further northeast. This period will be critical because if it is followed by a strong northerly it may indicate the coming weakness of zonal flow, as this will be the best index period for zonality.

Around December 12-13, a major storm is likely in western Europe in general. The track this takes, and interactions with any developing arctic highs further east, will provide a key to what may follow -- if this low blasts into northern Russia and sets up a week or more of zonal flow, then a large part of cold set-up will be wasted, decreasing the chances for January to turn much colder. If this low redevelops along a more southerly-tracking jet into the Med, then it would be a good sign for rapid development of colder retrograde patterns in the heart of the winter season to come.

Testable specifics - now that's what I'm talking about. As ever, Roger, clear and concise - so thanks for that And haven't you heard? Winter is over.

[Roger J Smith]

I'll keep this short, yes Nigel the December 12-13 storm forecast has its main foundation in the fact that we have a perigeean full moon then, also my northern max event soon afterwards and a couple of other minor energy peaks for good measure.

Also, for all those who were kind enough to thank me for a readable forecast, I hope it was noted that I deliberately hedged this forecast, really my intention was to say that these two periods, mid-November and 12-13 December, would likely hold the key to how much chance there might be for cold weather later on, because I see them as cold's two biggest tests if in fact cold has any chance of getting into the ring at all this winter. If cold air is showing up in some likely region like northern Scandinavia or northwest Russia, then it will be very interesting to see how it fares against two energetic storm events at high latitudes. If there is storminess at the new moon in late November between these two, it is more likely to take a southerly track anyway from my research, so that won't be as indicative of the winter prospects.

I think colder air masses will at least play a part this winter, but after being rather disappointed by various near misses of cold in past winters and noting how the retrograde tendencies are showing up well north of historical analogues in this era, I can't help but hedging my bets on colder than long-term averages unless it's the "long term" of the past twenty years perhaps.

I have to say, lots of optimistic little signs are out there, as I commented in Steve Murr's thread elsewhere. Cold has showed up early and in fine form in northern Canada, for example, and it shows up rather prominently on the GFS over Greenland fairly soon. These can't be bad developments if cold is to reach Europe at some point. I have to respect all that open water north of Scandinavia though, the one thing is, it extends so far north(east) that perhaps it will create an unusual vortex pattern up there and that might help too.

The past two weeks have been exceptionally quiet for this time of year, though, no?

[VillagePlank]

I hope it was noted that I deliberately hedged this forecast,

I did notice that you borrowed some cold from Russia, sold it to us Brits, then bought it back cheaper from the Americans to give back to the Russians, with Canada pocketing the difference.

Tut-tut

Edited September 26, 2008 by VillagePlank

[Roger J Smith]

I like the set-up at present, very cold relative to normal in Alaska and eastern Siberia, warmth developing across west-central regions of North America. If this all stays fairly progressive the cold should slide gradually into central North America by winter. More of a retrograde tendency is evident in the Atlantic sector, and I think this may relax for a while in late October and early November, then resume later. It could come together as an omega-blocking pattern over the west-central Atlantic with a warm anomaly along the eastern seaboard of N America, and cold anomalies over central North America and Greenland-Iceland-Scandi.

Probably there is now a law against predicting below normal temperatures in the UK, so I won't test my legal protections on that one. <_<

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don't see any damning of the theory, I'm simply saying that imo he's damaged his credibility by trying to jump on a bandwagon it would have been better to stay clear of.

Agreed, thanks Roger.

Paul

Maybe you should highlight the IMO in your post. He hasn't damaged his credibility at all IMO and your attack seems quite bizarre in all honesty. Last 10 year mean in the UK IS higher than the 71-00 CET. Temps returning to 40s to 70s are global temps, that is absolutley clear...isn't it? His post is clear and you are trying to make something out of absolutely nothing...sorry but that has to be said...and already you can see a certain faction gathering like hyenas.

Roger nice posts mate and as always of high relevance. Agreed the December energy peak is the most interesting one and agreed the current pattern is encouraging [re projection] as has been this year in all honesty. The UK caveat must be quoted though...as you have done <_<

BFTP

[Cycles]

Fall Folliage....

Unofficial poll by all on this years fall folliage.

In the Northeastern United States colors are beginning to peak much earlier than during the 10 to 12 year period from 1995 to 2007. It is peaking so rapidly that the tourism folliage releases are not keeping up with the extent of colors

This years peak is coming about 2 weeks earlier than most peaks duirng the past 12 years....could be due to very cloudy rainy conditions from mid July into mid August coupled with a relatively cool September.

How about other areas in Northern latitudes????

[LadyPakal]

Check out the Seasons changing thread in the General Autumn Discussion area.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49216

[Cycles]

Check out the Seasons changing thread in the General Autumn Discussion area.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49216

Thank you for the link. I see fall folliage etc is about on schedule around the U.K., so the early folliage is more localized here in the Northeastern U.S.

[Roger J Smith]

Same here, David, the fall colour change is about on its normal schedule after what was probably a near-normal midsummer (cool spring). Not that we get a very spectacular fall colour display compared to back east.

I thought the summer in the Great Lakes region reminded me of the 1840s in the Toronto weather records, a lot of near-normal temperatures and way more rain than usual. That would describe 1842 and 1843, the two wettest years on record at Toronto.

Are you still in Maine?

[Cycles]

Same here, David, the fall colour change is about on its normal schedule after what was probably a near-normal midsummer (cool spring). Not that we get a very spectacular fall colour display compared to back east.

I thought the summer in the Great Lakes region reminded me of the 1840s in the Toronto weather records, a lot of near-normal temperatures and way more rain than usual. That would describe 1842 and 1843, the two wettest years on record at Toronto.

Are you still in Maine?

Looking at folliage in Maine for a week or so and heading to Florida mid month. This is one of the wettest summers/falls in quite some time. Many areas are running close to 40 percent greater than normal and have already reached their annual totals. And more on the way this weekend, depending on the eventual path of Hurricane kyle.

[Roger J Smith]

This may be my last post on this winter in this thread because I think it would probably be more appropriate to start a new thread somewhere on the forum (suggestions gladly considered) so that this thread can return to its original theme. But just to finish off a thought process, I went into the CET daily records on my computer and selected the Decembers with identical lunar dates every 19 years since 1780 to 1989 as the last occasion. You could get a larger sample by including the similar dates which would be every 19 after 1777, 1783, 1785, 1791 and 1794. These would give you full moon dates ranging from about the 7th to 17th of December.

However, just to get this started, I chose just the cases that were almost identical, and here's what the average of the twelve cases looks like:

Seems like you have to click and open it ... it shows a tendency for cooler than normal weather in the first week, a gradual turn to milder with a small peak around the full moon event on the 12th, then a more general peak of relative warmth by the 18th ... this corresponds to my recent experience using my research, strong full moon - northern max lows form near timing lines 1 and 2 in eastern N America and move east to reach the eastern Atlantic in 3-6 days, so a peak of warmth is realized from these imported full moon energy peaks from the stronger timing lines. This seemed to become more and more the case in the "modern" climate period -- there were more examples in both this series and the other ones not used but inspected, back in the colder climate period of the 18th and 19th centuries, to see a peak around the 12th and a turn to colder by the 16th. So the lunar-component climate effect has been changing progressively as the grid lifts north.

Then you'll see a general cooling trend around the Christmas period with the coldest weather of the month around the 27th where new moon and southern max occur. The peak of warmth from the lunar event seems to be around the 30th, probably indicating a weaker but similar response to the trans-Atlantic effect of the full moon and northern max.

Now these twelve cases don't all have perigee in the same part of the lunar orbit, and end up averaging out that effect over the whole cycle. The best analogue in terms of perigee would be 1875, and here, the warmth seemed to be quite strong in the week after the full moon with a string of very mild days around the 18th. In the 1856 case with perigee about four days earlier, the warm period was 6th to 10th with days well over 10.0 C, rather like that very mild spell back in Dec 2006.

Anyway, have a look and you'll see at least a suggestion of the process controlled by the lunar component of the climate model ... in my own opinion, there are equal contributions from other external drivers that we can isolate using the same analogue profile technique. Get enough profiles and one should have a reasonable approximation of the forecast model.

And a very encouraging note, one of the best timing analogues is 1946-47, perigee also close to the full moons and northern max events, and timing of lunar events not far off this winter.

2008ANAL.xls

Edited September 28, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

A slightly corrected version of the file above is attached to this post.

If you click on this and get the table of data, click on "current" to see the graph.

The table shows you the raw data in tenths of a degree C (e.g., 102 = 10.2 C).

2008ANAL.xls

Edited September 28, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[Cycles]

A slightly corrected version of the file above is attached to this post.

If you click on this and get the table of data, click on "current" to see the graph.

The table shows you the raw data in tenths of a degree C (e.g., 102 = 10.2 C).

Roger

You have had a lot to add to this thread and both our ideas on global weather cycles have some similarities. This thread will likely get busier as we get deeper into fall and winter approaches, El Nino begins forming and winter weather makes headlines. Your input will be looked for on this thread, and other research articles concerning external climate forcing will be posted by others.

We'll likely be getting deeper into my reseach during the upcoming 2 or 3 months, and posting info all can understand concerning your research will be helpful.

Regards

David

[Cycles]

NBC film crew stranded in Arctic on icebreaker 3 weeks 'inclement weather' -

September 26, 2008 - H/t: Anthony Watts:

<http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/30/msnbc-film-crew-stranded-in-arctic-on

-icebreaker-3-weeks>

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/30/msnb...d-in-arctic-on-

icebreaker-3-weeks ]

Excerpt: Producer Paul Manson and I, along with cameraman Callan Griffiths

and soundman Ben Adam, were sent here on assignment to report on climate

change and the Arctic for an upcoming broadcast. [.] Our intention was to

stay on board for 10 days, shooting video and interviews. Mother Nature,

apparently, had other plans. Inclement weather, along with an emergency

search and rescue mission, has spoiled all five of our attempts to leave the

ship. Getting stuck in the Arctic is not uncommon; getting stuck five times

is like punishment. [.] We boarded the Amundsen Thursday, Sept. 4, in

Resolute Bay, a small Inuit village, along the Northwest Passage. The plan

was to fly off by helicopter at the northern most civilian community in

North America, Grise Fjord, and then begin our long journey home. Freezing

rain and harsh weather kept our chopper grounded both Monday and Tuesday.

The ship kept going and our chance to get off passed. [.] Over the next

couple weeks, we would make three more attempts to fly to land. Each one

failed due to weather.

<http://allday.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/26/1449629.aspx>

http://allday.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/26/1449629.aspx

See Also Related News:

NO JOKE! Global warming activists 'stuck' in Arctic ice! See temps drop

'dramatically' during Arctic trek & faces frost bite! - September 3, 2008

Excerpt: Sam is travelling to the North pole on an expedition to highlight

climate change and keeping a travel log for Mirror.co.uk. [.] "We're stuck"

- I have slept poorly. The floating ice, while thin, is so prevalent that,

throughout the night, it grinds noisily against the side of the boat in a

slightly alarming fashion - imagine someone scraping their nails across an

old-fashioned blackboard. The then begins earlier than normal and,

unusually, I am not woken by Robbie bounding into my room. Instead the

ship's engine roars to life earlier than normal - at around 5.30 - and the

MV 'Havsel' begins to judder ominously. I clamber out of bed and scramble up

to the bridge - all the ship's crew are there, and they look serious. I look

outside and I can see why. The sea is almost entirely congested with ice

floes - I would estimate 80% plus of the sea is covered by them. There is a

real risk that we could get stuck up here. We have drifted in the night into

a much icier area than where we stopped last night. I wake up the team, and

everyone groggily makes their way to the bridge. There's a mixed reaction in

the team to the prospect of getting stuck up here.

[Roger J Smith]

Nice early start to the freeze-up this year, it is currently -13 C at Isachsen in the northwest arctic, and -9 C at Grise Fiord on Devon Island.

It seems that a lot of uninformed people have been hoodwinked into thinking that the Canadian arctic is melting down at a rapid rate -- changes up there are incremental at the best of times, it is a case of the winter freeze coming a week or two later in warm periods, and the spring thaw a week or two earlier (in June . The peak of the summer season and the depth of winter have not changed that much even in the "warming" episode, it was the shoulder seasons just like I found with the Toronto data in the 19th century, the months that were coldest relative to 20th century normals were April and October. Essentially, it's a similar climate at the summer and winter extremes, but a longer winter season, when North America cools slightly. This is perhaps somewhat different from European climates that tend to cool or warm throughout the year about the same amount.

On another topic, the thread has gone quiet after I posted those lunar temperature profiles. I was hoping for some feedback from our regular visitors here, and David, because this thread was originally supposed to be dealing with your research, that's why I thought perhaps I might need to restructure from now on and just start a new thread or go back to the original one that has not been active for about a year now because I am so busy on these other threads.

Essentially, what I need to figure out is this -- I have my own views on what drives climate, some of which are not lunar cycles but other external drivers, so when I get heavily involved in your thread, it's like two separate ideas coming at the readers with no implied total agreement between us, although I think your concept is valid and quite well explained in the e-book. I just happen to think there are various other processes going on independent of these lunar cycles we both identify in different language or formats perhaps. For example, we have somewhat different views on the potential for an El Nino event, although I'm not sure if you've said what your forecast might be for that beyond this winter, my emphasis was on a stronger El Nino in 2-3 years time, so I don't know if this is different from your view or not.

So that's my rather non-urgent dilemma here, how to proceed without substantially confusing this thread and its readers, but still taking part. But feedback from other readers would be helpful here, I don't even know if these lunar profiles that I posted are easily understood, are seen to be significant against random, or whatever. I can compile some further profiles based on the Decembers that have similar lunar dates as mentioned. That expands the data set to about 60 years instead of 12. From eyeballing the data I am pretty sure the signal for the 12 exact analagoues will be preserved more or less intact.

More later then ...

[Cycles]

Nice early start to the freeze-up this year, it is currently -13 C at Isachsen in the northwest arctic, and -9 C at Grise Fiord on Devon Island.

It seems that a lot of uninformed people have been hoodwinked into thinking that the Canadian arctic is melting down at a rapid rate --

On another topic, the thread has gone quiet after I posted those lunar temperature profiles. I was hoping for some feedback from our regular visitors here, and David, because this thread was originally supposed to be dealing with your research, that's why I thought perhaps I might need to restructure from now on and just start a new thread or go back to the original one that has not been active for about a year now because I am so busy on these other threads.

Essentially, what I need to figure out is this -- I have my own views on what drives climate, some of which are not lunar cycles but other external drivers, so when I get heavily involved in your thread, it's like two separate ideas coming at the readers with no implied total agreement between us, although I think your concept is valid and quite well explained in the e-book. I just happen to think there are various other processes going on independent of these lunar cycles we both identify in different language or formats perhaps.

So that's my rather non-urgent dilemma here, how to proceed without substantially confusing this thread and its readers, but still taking part.

Roger,

It is reasonable to expect difference of opinions and building of ideas on a thread. We both agree on external forcing as the Primary driver of the earth's climate. Both of our forcing mechanisms are very likely inter-related and should be discussed. By doing so Roger we can have a forum investigating the external mechanims that are so much more important than the man-made myth of co2. It also may be important for you to revive the other forum as well, and to release some forecasts for all to see.

This forum will likely heat up during the next couple of months Roger. Sea surface temperatures have remained faily stable in the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical South Pacific where El Nino events normally form. The La Nina faded several months ago followed by warming and then stabilization to neutral conditions. I expect warming to begin once again this month, or November at the latest. We will all be watching this unfold.

We also need to find a way to get our ideas out to the media, other researchers. The Vice Presidential debate in the United States last night (Thursday night) discussed one question...what is your view on global warming. One candidate said "no question, it is man-made". The other candidate talked about it being "cyclical". We have a chance to get our ideas and research out to the world.

So far we have not talked about specifics in this forum...but maybe it is the time to do so.

Regards

David Dilley

Global Weather Oscillations Inc

http://globalweathercycles.com

Author "Global Warming - Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found"

[Cycles]

Question....

Does anyone know how to upload a video link to YouTube ? Please email me if you do.

[Roger J Smith]

We're having an election in Canada too, there is one party (Conservative) somewhat lukewarm about global warming or climate change science but still aware of public opinion enough to go with a modest set of proposals that would still be very difficult to achieve (20 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020, but an emphasis on cleaning up urban air pollution, a much easier sell). The other parties have gone off the deep end with competing proposals that would warm the IPCC if not the arctic. We go to the polls on October 14th, and will be either "business as usual" or "greener than green" thereafter. Public opinion seems split, but the rise of a Green Party where we already have a strong Liberal and a sizeable Labour-analogue New Democratic Party, means the "progressive" vote will be split at least three ways, and in Quebec four ways because they have a separatist party that wins quite a few ridings (47 out of 75 last time out).

Almost beyond belief, but there has been no serious discussion of the science behind all these political positions. Part of the reason is that the American economic crisis has taken over from the environment as the top issue. We have much less economic disruption here because of different banking and investment regulations, but Canadian investors are to some extent thrown into these global markets, and more importantly, the commodity markets tend to tank first and hardest in a recession, and we are the world's most resource-oriented economy.

But getting back to the discussion of the science, at least in the U.S. there are different opinions being voiced, although Governor Palin has obviously learned that it is wise to soft-peddle skepticism about global warming and take the cheerful position that while we don't think it's man-made, there is no reason not to do most of the things on the agenda for other reasons. This deflects the firestorm of critical comment that would greet a more blunt person like myself who might say, sure let's pour fifty billion dollars down a black hole and watch about ten billion of that land on Maurice Strong's desk.

Maurice Strong is a very powerful Canadian businessman who has very strong (ha ha) ties to the Liberal Party and the Canadian media. This is one of the reasons, largely unknown outside of Canada, why this whole global warming political crusade got started, long before Al Gore was converted, Canada under a Liberal government from 1993 to 2005 was aggressively promoting the Kyoto process and all the other science, and lining up all the photo ops and interviews in the arctic that would underscore public concern. A lot of this has been done rather cynically from political motives; Strong would be in line to make billions from carbon tax credit trading and other schemes, and the Canadian Liberals are very big promoters of the communist regime in China, so this helps to explain where that exemption of China and the other so-called developing nations (it looked pretty developed to me during the Olympics) originated.

In a normal country, this would be setting off a firestorm of public debate and political wrangling, but in Canada, the elites have their tentacles in every corner, as soon as this Conservative Party came to power in early 2006, they were somehow induced to change course on various issues and become almost like the Liberal Party used to be, while the Liberal Party has now gone full-environmental and has dropped drastically in the polls, because the more pragmatic New Democrats are wisely laying off the emphasis on the climate crisis. As for the Green Party, I find their leader virtually hysterical, she more or less accused the PM of being a bad parent because he doesn't agree with her assessment that there is a climate crisis.

I wish I were more politically active but my blacklisting has left me in a very difficult situation for public participation, there is always that problem of not being a "credible" meaning official scientist. Yet the people are very receptive to alternative outlooks, and so it is good that people with better credentials (on paper) than myself are speaking out both here and in other countries. The media totally ignore them, and keep banging on about the crisis, despite the fact that yesterday, outside the debate hall in Ottawa, it was a toasty 8 C whereas in 1971 it was 30 C, a fact I tried to point out to our dense media, but of course, that tends to look bad on the crisis. The polar bears will have the last laugh, I am sure (not sure how they are voting).

[Cycles]

From the Heartland Institute

Arctic Ice-Melt Season Ends, Predictions of Ice-Free North Pole Miserably Wrong

News Releases > September 2008

Environment > Climate: Alarmism

Environment > Climate: Glaciers

Environment > Climate: Realists

Environment > Climate: Science

Email a Friend

Written By: James M. Taylor

Published In: News Releases > September 2008

Publication date: 09/30/2008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Arctic summer ice melt season came to an official end last week, and global warming alarmists are now eating crow after their predictions that the North Pole would be ice free this summer have proven miserably wrong.

After saturating the media and gaining global headlines with their predictions of Arctic gloom and doom this summer, official measurements showed that Arctic ice increased by 9 percent this summer, and ice-free waters never even came close to the North Pole.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/) declared an official end to the ice-melt season when it reported that Arctic sea ice has reached its minimum extent for the season, and that the snow accumulation season has begun.

Meanwhile, the University of Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/), which maintains a Web site with daily Arctic and Antarctic ice photos and measurements from satellite instruments, clearly shows the North Pole ice cap has increased from last year.

CNN, ABC, MSNBC, Fox News, and Time magazine are just a few of the major media outlets that were duped into reporting the predicted likelihood of an ice-free North Pole this summer. Like so many other global warming false alarms, however, an ice-free North Pole was never a realistic possibility. (Specific links to coverage is provided below.)

"The ice-free North Pole scare takes its place among a long list of other global warming scares that were breathlessly reported by the media but subsequently debunked by sound science," observed James M. Taylor, senior fellow of environment policy at the Heartland Institute, a Chicago-based think tank.

He added, "Sound science has thoroughly debunked, for example, assertions that global warming is causing polar bear populations to decline; that global warming may cause a new ice age by shutting down the Gulf Stream; that global warming is causing the retreat of Mt. Kilimanjaro's alpine glacier; that global warming is causing a retreat of the Antarctic polar ice cap; that global warming is causing more global drought; and that global warming is causing more hurricanes to form."

Follow these links to see media coverage reporting that the North Pole might be ice-free by September 2008:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/20...north-pole.html

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/06/2...h.pole.melting/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25419299/

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology

/2008021462 _apscinorthpolemelt.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtm...27/eaice127.xml

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4728737

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,372542,00.html

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008...free-september/

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/19/2194829.htm

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/sto...e0-d3a46d7502f0

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/...north-pole-ice/

[Mondy]

How many Global Warming alarmists have eaten crow then? Do you want to defend yourselves or admit you got it spectacularly wrong?

[Iceberg]

GWO you do much better keeping your thread to science rather than peddling this rubbish.