Global Weather Oscillations

[Cycles]

Delta X-Ray and Iceberg

I was stirring things up here to get us back on the subject of global cooling, polar ice and climate cycles.

Let's talk science and get back to why this thread was established.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GWO you do much better keeping your thread to science rather than peddling this rubbish.

Yes good point, let's not go down the 'alarmist warmists' route.

GWO is there any way you can show an image demonstrating the movement of the HP belt so that folk can actually see the difference it would make?

BFTP

[Cycles]

Yes good point, let's not go down the 'alarmist warmists' route.

GWO is there any way you can show an image demonstrating the movement of the HP belt so that folk can actually see the difference it would make?

BFTP

Very good request Blast and it is a graphic I need for future presentations, but have not made one up yet. There has been discussions on other forums concerning the issue of how warmer air actually gets to the poles. Some have suggested if high centers were further north the exchange of air from mid to high latitudes would disrupt the polar environment. Or in other words, during the so called normal cold periods of the polar climate, the polar regions actually have their own environment with no interractions from lower latitudes. Because of this they are allowed to cool and act like a freezer. However, intrusion of mid to high level somewhat milder air from mid to upper mid latitudes would disrupt the closed off environment.

Therefore, if the high pressure belt moves northward by 3 to 8 degrees of latitude the weather/climate systems including the polar jet would likewise be pushed further north.

I would imagine there is graphics on the web somewhere displaying this scenerio, anyone?

[LadyPakal]

GWO may be interested in this paper, regards global temp changes with regard to El Nino/La Nina effects. It may fit in with your theory.

‘Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth’ - recently accepted for publication in Energy and Environment.

Link here: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0809/0809.0581.pdf

Abstract

'The global atmospheric temperature anomalies of Earth reached a maximum in 1998 which has not been exceeded during the subsequent 10 years. The global anomalies are calculated from the average of climate effects occurring in the tropical and the extratropical latitude bands. El Niño/La Niña effects in the tropical band are shown to explain the 1998 maximum while variations in the background of the global anomalies largely come from climate effects in the northern extratropics. These effects do not have the signature associated with CO2 climate forcing. However, the data show a small underlying positive trend that is consistent with CO2 climate forcing with no-feedback.'

[Mondy]

Delta X-Ray and Iceberg

I was stirring things up here to get us back on the subject of global cooling, polar ice and climate cycles.

Let's talk science and get back to why this thread was established.

Ahh, my earlier post looks like I was "against" you GWO....the exact opposite..the question remains unanswered and pointed to the alarmists..

[Cycles]

Ahh, my earlier post looks like I was "against" you GWO....the exact opposite..the question remains unanswered and pointed to the alarmists..

Thank you for the correction X-Ray. They certainly will be eating crow as newer and newer research and data comes out. Second cool fall in a row for the United States, and I didn't see any media about heat all summer...

[Mondy]

There's a good chance you won't see the following headlines either:

"Second Coldest Arctic Winter since records began"

"Second largest Winter Ice Extent on record"

[Roger J Smith]

Just a note to say that there's more about my research on-line now at my new website

http://www.futureweatherinc.com

I hope you will all drop in when you have some time, and check it out ... in a month or two there might be more content about the theory (that I have and it is all mine -- Anne Elk) ... or perhaps I will be out of my misery by then.

Either way, drop in, say hello in the comments section, and suggest any other links.

I'll be quite frank, I don't know what's about to happen in the arctic in the near future, either way it could lead to a much colder period, colder up there first, or milder to give more open water, these could both rebound on us further south with colder and longer winters the result. Given these uncertainties, it makes sense to me that we might have passed the peak of warming in the post-1982 era. That warming episode started up rather quickly in the 1982-83 El Nino after some very cold years in North America, and seemed to require about five years to go "global" because Europe remained in a colder pattern through mid-1987 (and also North America had a bit of a lurch back to colder in 1983-84). Then it seems to me that we will find this warming episode peaked with the 1998 El Nino perhaps as late as 1999 to 2006 depending on what your frame of reference may be.

The odds seem to favour cooling over warming at present, this possible el Nino event either soon or perhaps in 2-3 years may try to hold that back a bit, and so the best odds for cooling may lie in the mid 2010s decade. I think I'm agreeing with David that another warming is possible after that for a few years, then more oscillations that include some bigger cooling episodes.

Anyway, an interesting winter season ahead, with the various signals to monitor, and perigeean northern max events near the full moons.

[Cycles]

Just a note to say that there's more about my research on-line now at my new website

http://www.futureweatherinc.com

Anyway, an interesting winter season ahead, with the various signals to monitor, and perigeean northern max events near the full moons.

Nice to see your web site up and running Roger, just in time for winter.

A press release out of Fairbanks Alaska yesterday noted the first day of below freezing temperatures (high temperature for the day) just occured, a few days earlier than the mean date for this.

Have noticed cooler air banked over Canada all summer and fall, more so than in the past 10 years. Looks like the Arctic is cooling as forecast.

Phase 1 of cooling is here and is open for discussion.

[stewfox]

Nice to see your web site up and running Roger, just in time for winter.

A press release out of Fairbanks Alaska yesterday noted the first day of below freezing temperatures (high temperature for the day) just occured, a few days earlier than the mean date for this.

Have noticed cooler air banked over Canada all summer and fall, more so than in the past 10 years. Looks like the Arctic is cooling as forecast.

Phase 1 of cooling is here and is open for discussion.

Does this explain the rapid re freeze of the Artic we are seeing (see Artic thread)

[Cycles]

Does this explain the rapid re freeze of the Artic we are seeing (see Artic thread)

Thoughts from other scientists include more of a zonal flow and the mid latitutde high and low pressure systems further away from the poles, thus little or no interaction with the polar climates. The polar climates are much colder when they sit in their own environment and have no interaction with other climates.

And here is some data for September

Global temperature anomalies from MSUs for September are Global 0.161 C, NH 0.219 C, SH 0.102 C. Last September's figures were respectively: 0.201, 0.24 and 0.162.Mauna Loa CO2 values were 383.09 ppmv for September 2008, 380.74 ppmv for September 2007.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Phase 1 of cooling is here and is open for discussion.

David

Are the temps falling at predicted levels?

BFTP

[Essan]

Second cool fall in a row for the United States, and I didn't see any media about heat all summer...

There were record breaking heatwaves this summer from California to Texas to Seattle B)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There were record breaking heatwaves this summer from California to Texas to Seattle B)

Hmmm, so even with the 'record breaking' heatwaves Cal could only manage 9th warmest............must have been cool out of the 'record breaking' heatwaves.

BFTP

Edited October 8, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Essan]

Hmmm, so even with the 'record breaking' heatwaves Cal could only manage 9th warmest............must have been cool out of the 'record breaking' heatwaves. B)

BFTP

Not really, just means other years have been slightly warmer on average across the state as a whole Anyway, I was simply pointing out that there have been plenty of news headlines about hot weather in the USA this summer. I'm not drawing any inference from that whatsoever. I'd expect the same to be the case most summer. It'd be highly unusual for nowhere to have a record breaking hot or cold spell in any given year.

[Iceberg]

Thoughts from other scientists include more of a zonal flow and the mid latitutde high and low pressure systems further away from the poles, thus little or no interaction with the polar climates. The polar climates are much colder when they sit in their own environment and have no interaction with other climates.

And here is some data for September

Global temperature anomalies from MSUs for September are Global 0.161 C, NH 0.219 C, SH 0.102 C. Last September's figures were respectively: 0.201, 0.24 and 0.162.Mauna Loa CO2 values were 383.09 ppmv for September 2008, 380.74 ppmv for September 2007.

And just for balance.

The Hadley Cru figures global for the last two months available July and August compared to last year are.

2007 July 0.406 Aug 0.370

2008 July 0.412 Aug 0.387

No Cooling trend there then. You might argue the validity etc of the two measurements but the entering of a cooling phase it certainly is not.

BTW are you still sticking with your moderate to strong El Nino by December David ?.

[Cycles]

It appears the July-August temperatures were about the same as last year, or very slightly higher globally. And although there was some record heat (and there is usually) it did not appear to be as wide spread as the prior 10 year period. Meanwhile figures indicate moderate cooling in September and if these figures were combined with July-August there would be a net loss in temperature.

The peak of the 9 year excessive warmth appears to be over, thus I can confidently say that my prediction for phase 1 of global cooling is right on schedule. Both the Antarctic and Arctic appear to be responding to a cooler period duirng the past year with an increase in ice in the Antarctic, and for the most part improved conditions in the Arctic over last year. Yes some will argue the the Arctic had record melting in August. But we also need to realize the Arctic was cooler in June, July and September than it has been in a number of years, and much of the ice pack melt was due to ocean currents and not warm air.

And finally the El Nino. Nino 3.4 water temperatures remained somewhat steady duirng August and September (slightly down) following an increase for a few months prior to this period. As Roger and other's are well aware, everything comes in cycles. The increased declination PFM cycle will cause an increase in water temperatures during the upcoming months across the central South Pacific Nino 3.4 region. The warming SSTs follow the PFM cycle by 1 or 2 months with the strongest PFM cycles coming about every 5-6 months, this is why we see cycles. It is expected that SSTs will begin rising soon and the first earmarks of a developing El Nino will be seen in November and December.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It appears the July-August temperatures were about the same as last year, or very slightly higher globally.

A slight rebound in July from June David but August was a negative again so on track i'd say. Iceberg, Hadley are on their own GISS, UAH etc show negative. I'll go with the majority which show 4 months below 71-00 average with Sept anticipated to make it 5.

Essan, thanks for clarity just sparring with you mate.

BFTP

Edited October 8, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mondy]

This just makes me mad..SC24 hasn't even started yet

http://www.solarcycle25.com/

in another 11-12 years time we will start Solar Cycle 25 and NASA has already predicted this to be one of the lowest solar cycles for centuries.

Edited October 8, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Iceberg]

It appears the July-August temperatures were about the same as last year, or very slightly higher globally.

A slight rebound in July from June David but August was a negative again so on track i'd say. Iceberg, Hadley are on their own GISS, UAH etc show negative. I'll go with the majority which show 4 months below 71-00 average with Sept anticipated to make it 5.

Essan, thanks for clarity just sparring with you mate.

BFTP

BFTP I think you might be wrong GISS figures show July to be the second warmest July on record behind 1998 at +0.73 more than a slight rebound.Since then we have+0.56 and+0.67 MakingJune/July/August the 7th warmest of record globally.

September on GISS came is as a 4th warmeston record.

This would be very strange cooling indeed.

So we have both Hadley and GISS showing no sign of this this predicted Cooling trend but because an already descredited sat does that's OK and David's theory is correct.

I think we need to wait until December to view the cooling trend and the ENSO prediction of a moderate to strong El Nino (which is 100% correct). I'll happily take my hat off and buy my kids a copy of his Ebook but at the moment this isn't looking likely.

PS Finally I looked up the Spetember figure for UAH and oh despite the spin here showed a big jump up to show the warmest monthly anomaly this year.

Any more hinding places ?.

[LadyPakal]

Just chucking this in here, seeing as GISS data is being talked about. Note the changes between temps at the end of August and the end of September. Some revisions can be seen.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/08/giss...mber-2008-data/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP I think you might be wrong GISS figures show July to be the second warmest July on record behind 1998 at +0.73 more than a slight rebound.Since then we have+0.56 and+0.67 MakingJune/July/August the 7th warmest of record globally.

Here's the figures I have

2008 1 -0.046

2008 2 0.020

2008 3 0.094

2008 4 0.015

2008 5 -0.180

2008 6 -0.114

2008 7 0.048

2008 8 -0.010

2008 9 0.161

Yes agree re Sept the adjusted figure makes it globally the warmest anomaly. I believe there may be another adjustment coming in too re Aug upwards.

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Heres the GISS figures from the GISS site.

2008 35 32 74 43 43 32 73 56 67*************** ********* 43 54 54***** 2008

All positive

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

[LadyPakal]

What I want to know is, why adding the value for September has changed the values for so many other months this year (see my earlier post) including those as far back as spring. When can we be sure the numbers are not going to change again?

[Iceberg]

I think they are just corrections, which the Met office do for the CET as well normally only 2-6 months down the line.

The CET is only made of 3 stations, however the global figures are made from 1000's so I would imagine a fair bit of uping and downing.