Arctic Ice

[J10]

Which is the most accurate, and does CT do daily readings, as I'd like to do a similar exercise based on their figures if available.

[osmposm]

With the (current) below average temperatures looking set to continue in the Canadian Archipelago region I'd expect low ice loss there in coming days...

Not sure where your info comes from, doc. I've just checked today's temps, and Resolute (at the entrance to the NW passage) is below average, certainly, at +1C max - but not by much, and set to stay mainly near the freezing mark rather than significantly below. Ditto Nanisivik (near Arctic Bay, at the western end of Baffin). Moving north, Eureka is very much av at +4C max, with no great change forecast. Right at the top of Ellesmere, Alert is a bit above normal at +5C, and forecast to stay that way, give or take, in the next few days. Much further south, Cambridge Bay (+13C) is a bit above av too, forecast to cool a little but still staying way, way above zero as you would expect at this time of year.

That pretty much covers the archipelago, as you can see from this map:

Ossie

[Roger J Smith]

In general, I think this season's ice loss is more anomalous on the Siberian side than the Canadian side of the arctic. A good deal of open water has opened up north of Siberia, a decent icebreaker could easily get through there now with just a few patches of heavier ice left. The Northwest Passage is still shown as ice-clogged on the Canadian charts and you can see large chunks of ice through broken cloud in that region.

As to temperatures and relationship to ice melt, I think land temperatures of 5 C or lower indicate very low potential for ice melt, at most the ice would be very slowly thinning because temperatures over the ice would quickly stabilize at dew point temperatures which are often close to zero with a 5 C air temp up there in late summer. This season is now very dependent on warm air advection from nearby land, which further favours Siberia over Canada. I think the minimum will come in close to tying for second place in recent years, but a boundary anywhere north of 80 N on the Bering side will be hard to find.

Further massive ice loss near Franz Josef seems more likely to me given the very anomalous warmth in the western North Atlantic, which sooner or later is bound to fuel some intense cyclonic storms heading in that general direction.

By early October we may be seeing a sort of mirror image of last year, a new record in the Svalbard-Franz Josef sector in terms of ice loss, perhaps it is here that we will find an assault on the pole.

Edited August 16, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[doctormog]

Not sure where your info comes from, doc. I've just checked today's temps, and Resolute (at the entrance to the NW passage) is below average, certainly, at +1C max - but not by much, and set to stay mainly near the freezing mark rather than significantly below. Ditto Nanisivik (near Arctic Bay, at the western end of Baffin). Moving north, Eureka is very much av at +4C max, with no great change forecast. Right at the top of Ellesmere, Alert is a bit above normal at +5C, and forecast to stay that way, give or take, in the next few days. Much further south, Cambridge Bay (+13C) is a bit above av too, forecast to cool a little but still staying way, way above zero as you would expect at this time of year.

That pretty much covers the archipelago, as you can see from this map:

Ossie

The Canadian Weather service

I didn't state that the temperatures were significantly below average just below and that this should slow the rate of ice melt. For example currently in Resolute :

0°C, Fog Depositing Ice with yesterday's max 1.5 dehrees below average. The forecast for the next 4 days remains below average with quite light snow for much of the time, I'd hardly say my comments were misleading in suggesting a probable slow in melt rate in that region?

In the far north of the region, Alert is -2 with light snow currently, has been below average and by the look of the model data looks like remaining subzero for a while at least.

It's currently 0°C with light snow in Eureka (or at 10pm local time anyway) - likewise Grise Fjord is also at 0°C with a below average forecast.

Further south conditions are around average - marginally above in some places (such as Cambridge Bay -SW), but even here and Arctic Bay especially (on N Baffin) there is a significant cool down forecast. My sister-in-law grew up in this region (N Baffin - don't ask!) and it's own I keep a close eye on much of the year round and not just in sea ice terms.

All in all I'd expect to see a rather low melt rate in much of the area discussed above in coming days (unlike in some other areas)

[Iceberg]

Which is the most accurate, and does CT do daily readings, as I'd like to do a similar exercise based on their figures if available.

The figure is now below 6M and helpfully it's halfway through the month as well.

The latest value : 5,986,094 km2 (August 15, 2008)

The most accurate are the ones your using JACKONE, they come from higher res data and have use a lower percentage to calculate ice extent.

But it's a bit apples and pairs, Because of the lower res and the fact that it counts ice as disappearing sooner(i.e at 20% rather than the 10% for the NSIC) it gets it's lower values several weeks earlier.

They both have there places but yours are the most accurate.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With this almost record breaking ice melt taking place doesn't this sort of kill the idea of the start of global cooling from a weak sun. Surely if were a re startin g to cool you woudln't get record ice melt?

Not if it is NOT air temps causing the extra melt. Mike there is the theory too that an ice free arctic preceeds the onset of global cooling indeed even ice ages.

BFTP

[beng]

Not if it is NOT air temps causing the extra melt. Mike there is the theory too that an ice free arctic preceeds the onset of global cooling indeed even ice ages.

BFTP

It's probably worth adding that when cooling commenced in the 40s it took a while for arctic ice to respond, presumably because the thickness had been reduced over the previous 30 years.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that over the 'globally dimmed' period the potential for oceanic warming was still exploited and ,as such, we have at least 60yrs of warming in the deep ocean currents (stored up as it were) and we have yet to see how this impacts upon the planet when they re-emerge at their 'upwelling' points.

Of course, over time, the extent of the 'heating' has increased leaving the 'warmest ' to last.

Another point is if we have been 'warming the planet' since the onset of the Industrial revolution proper then we are already in the period where these 'deep ocean currents' are finishing their 'journey' an so their 'augmentation' within the northern and southern cryosphere could already be being felt (winter break up of Wilkins due to high ocean temps.....[and the rest of the peninsula shelves that we have lost]) so ,for those looking for another mechanism (12 month, year round, mechanism) then look to the deep oceans.

If the effect isn't present now then it will be within 50yrs.......kyboshing any 'cooling' that may be taking place at that time.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The recent 'ice loss' over in the Siberian sectors is a worry. Last year ocean and atmosphere conspired to amass a lot of the 'Eastern sector' perennial ice against the coastlines up there (keeping the 'eastern Passage' closed whilst all else was in 'meltdown'). The loss of this perennial this season further diminishes the percentage of perennial ice within the winter polar ice mass. More 'thin ice' means a later (due to warmer surface waters absorbing and storing 'heat' into autumn) start to the freeze but also a poor and disrupted start to the 'ice' season (due to the constant 'breakup of any ice skin that forms with the arrival of every winter storm/storm swell).

So an early start to melt season and a late resumption of the winter freeze leads us to a place where 'moderate' polar summers will still lead to record (relative) low ice figures by summers end (surely as we are seeing this year?) any 'warm summer' (next El-Nino proper?) will see the rapid loss of all sea ice over summer and whether this be before or after 2012 is wholly now dependant on the summer weather and no longer the tenacity of the perennial ice.

Edited August 16, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

Interesting article here:

http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/2008/08...ain_cool_a.html

This could explain the differences noted by Roger;

"Hufford said the Arctic Low, a persistent feature of the far northern atmosphere that usually hangs out near Greenland, has shifted west to the northeast corner of Siberia."

[osmposm]

The Canadian Weather service

I didn't state that the temperatures were significantly below average just below and that this should slow the rate of ice melt. For example currently in Resolute :

0°C, Fog Depositing Ice with yesterday's max 1.5 dehrees below average. The forecast for the next 4 days remains below average with quite light snow for much of the time, I'd hardly say my comments were misleading in suggesting a probable slow in melt rate in that region?

In the far north of the region, Alert is -2 with light snow currently, has been below average and by the look of the model data looks like remaining subzero for a while at least.

It's currently 0°C with light snow in Eureka (or at 10pm local time anyway) - likewise Grise Fjord is also at 0°C with a below average forecast.

Further south conditions are around average - marginally above in some places (such as Cambridge Bay -SW), but even here and Arctic Bay especially (on N Baffin) there is a significant cool down forecast. My sister-in-law grew up in this region (N Baffin - don't ask!) and it's own I keep a close eye on much of the year round and not just in sea ice terms.

All in all I'd expect to see a rather low melt rate in much of the area discussed above in coming days (unlike in some other areas)

My apologies, Michael: your numbers & forecasts - from a much more reliable source - are clearly right, as are your conclusions (at least as far as top down melting's concerned). Some of the details (for Alert especially) I'd extracted seem to have been complete nonsense....and I can't now even find the bloody website that so misled me.

Ossie

Edited August 16, 2008 by osmposm

[Guest Mike W]

Don't know what to make of this: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/08/15/go...ic_ice_mystery/

It's entitled 'Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered' from a website caleld The Register, with the article by someone called Steven Goddard.

[BARRY]

lastest north pole picture looks cold to me

Don't know what to make of this: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/08/15/go...ic_ice_mystery/

It's entitled 'Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered' from a website caleld The Register, with the article by someone called Steven Goddard.

me niether to be honest,all i know that is in a few weeks will have an answer.

Edited August 16, 2008 by BARRY

[sundog]

Don't know what to make of this: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/08/15/go...ic_ice_mystery/

It's entitled 'Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered' from a website caleld The Register, with the article by someone called Steven Goddard.

Interesting that,however i imagine certain people would tear it to pieces and say its bs

[Chris Knight]

SST anomalies for the Arctic are pretty useless, since the reference period surface was covered by ice.

It would be interesting to see comparisons of Arctic Ocean surface temperatures between last year, and this. Does anyone know a site where archived SST images are available in a reasonable resolution?

[Iceberg]

Interesting that,however i imagine certain people would tear it to pieces and say its bs

It's not worth tearing to bits it's just wrong. But hear are a few graphs that prove how wrong.

BTW the deep NW passage open today, the NE passage will open in the next 4 days and large chunks of the Arctic ice are opening up near the pole.

[J10]

The Latest forecasts based on 11th August's values are

for 31st August Min 5,300,642 Midpoint 5,538,463 Max 5,751,306

for the Year Low point Min 4,894,836 Midpoint 5,284,284 Max 5,565,517

The Latest forecasts based on 15th August's values are

for 31st August Min 5,193,353 Midpoint 5,471,877 Max 5,628,924

for the Year Low point Min 4,796,073 Midpoint 5,190,361 Max 5,436,267

It now looks as if the final figures on this scale will be below all years apart from 2005, but the figures still seem set to be above the 2007, probably by around 0.5-0.75sqkm2.

[Mondy]

BTW the deep NW passage open today, the NE passage will open in the next 4 days and large chunks of the Arctic ice are opening up near the pole.

And..??

You make it sound like you're enjoying yourself with those observations!

Here's a couple of obs for you: Link, link and link

B)

[Roger J Smith]

Last year the SST readings in the Arctic Ocean ice-free areas near Wrangel and the New Siberian Islands were in the range of 5 to 8 C for about two months (Sept-Oct) and about 2-3 C near 80 N. This year it is more like 2-3 C in the area further south, so we aren't seeing quite the same anomaly.

The Environment Canada website still shows the Northwest Passage iced up so with others showing it free, satellite imagery must be used to settle the difference. I can still see large segments of ice in that passage on satellite, whether it's continuous or not. The temperature anomaly pattern continues to favour Siberian melt and Svalbard to Franz Josef melt over eastern Canadian arctic melt.

I continue to note that the largest SST anomaly in evidence is off Labrador and Newfoundland. The cold current is absent, basically. This is quite a reversal from May when Newfoundland's north and east coasts were unusually ice-clogged and bergs were blocking some harbours.

This pattern is probably feeding directly into the wet summer in Ireland and western parts of the U.K. The storm track is energized to almost a winter intensity in the western Atlantic, but as the jet stream then diverges and has a mean westerly rather than southwesterly pattern, these deep lows have nowhere to go but east, the tropical inflow is near normal and with the energy regime decreasing eastward, the lows are just stalling out, losing energy and dumping their load over Ireland.

[Iceberg]

And..??

You make it sound like you're enjoying yourself with those observations!

Here's a couple of obs for you: Link, link and link

No not enjoying myself at all but there is no point closing your eyes.

As for the links link 1) Try looking thorugh the sat pics for Sept 2000, there was alot of melt(but no where near the melt of today) and the deep NW passage did not fully open. (This is probably why it took him 8 weeks).

link 2), Yes good to see some old climate obs, but I am not sure what it implies. link 3) Yes the politics of the opening of the NW passage are interesting.

I make this point everytime we talk about the NW passage and everytime it seems to be forgotten.

Boats can get through there most years, however a for a boat to pic it's way through large icebergs etc over several weeks is not particularly good.

The openening of the passage indicates that it's ice free, looking at the resolution over 20-50 km ice free.

BTW a few more stats

You can refuse to believe the Bremen University AMSR-E high res data showing the opening's.

You can refuse to believe that as of today CT shows the highest negative anom(excluding last year) ever recorded.

You can refuse to believe the IJIS which indicates that ice melt is running ahead of any previous year(except last year).

The latest value : 5,910,000 km2 (August 16, 2008) at current.

But to me the evidence unfortunately is that the ice is again in pretty dire shape. It's not quite as dire as last year but we still have another 6 weeks of melting to reach the minimum point of last year and the year before(according to IJIS).

[Chris Knight]

Last year the SST readings in the Arctic Ocean ice-free areas near Wrangel and the New Siberian Islands were in the range of 5 to 8 C for about two months (Sept-Oct) and about 2-3 C near 80 N. This year it is more like 2-3 C in the area further south, so we aren't seeing quite the same anomaly.

The Environment Canada website still shows the Northwest Passage iced up so with others showing it free, satellite imagery must be used to settle the difference. I can still see large segments of ice in that passage on satellite, whether it's continuous or not. The temperature anomaly pattern continues to favour Siberian melt and Svalbard to Franz Josef melt over eastern Canadian arctic melt.

I continue to note that the largest SST anomaly in evidence is off Labrador and Newfoundland. The cold current is absent, basically. This is quite a reversal from May when Newfoundland's north and east coasts were unusually ice-clogged and bergs were blocking some harbours.

This pattern is probably feeding directly into the wet summer in Ireland and western parts of the U.K. The storm track is energized to almost a winter intensity in the western Atlantic, but as the jet stream then diverges and has a mean westerly rather than southwesterly pattern, these deep lows have nowhere to go but east, the tropical inflow is near normal and with the energy regime decreasing eastward, the lows are just stalling out, losing energy and dumping their load over Ireland.

This is where the cold current is going:

and explains why the UK will have an unsettled continuation for the rest of the "summer".

[J10]

Please try to be polite on both sides of the arguments, or posts will be start being removed again.

For the interest of the debate, please try to stop posting evidence which suits you, and not when it doesn't.

As examples, there is different evidence which shows different states of play both in terms of ice cover and indeed te styate of the the NW passage which paint a contradictory pattern.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa1.jpg

Did no one want to mention that camera 1 has changed orientation again? It'll take a few days of 'clear' images to get our bearings again and see what the ice is up to!

[Iceberg]

Please try to be polite on both sides of the arguments, or posts will be start being removed again.

For the interest of the debate, please try to stop posting evidence which suits you, and not when it doesn't.

As examples, there is different evidence which shows different states of play both in terms of ice cover and indeed te styate of the the NW passage which paint a contradictory pattern.

No there isn't Jackone, sorry.

I posted up the Bremen picture because it's a) the most upto date and , the highest resolution that I could find.

Here are the CT(although for the day before) and the IJIS(a lower res picture) which show the same thing (I believe this covers most of the sites commonally used here.)

I can only find sites that show it either open or almost open except for a tiny bit of broken up ice.

I spent over an hour looking for a relavent modis,aqua, landsat image and failed to find one.

The problem is that people don't have time to trawl though every piece of evidence, save it down, post it up etc. So it's quite fair to use the sites that we use frequently, i.e Bremen, CT, NSIC and IJIS and report what they are saying.

There are CT's old pictures, but he openly admits that they are not as good as the AMRS-E ones.

I completely understand what your saying and think that you are right you should always try to show balance, or admit that what your reporting is only one view.

[Mondy]

Here's some balance.

Loads more sea ice than 2007: http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=16&sy=2008

[Iceberg]

Delta, please please talk to Will at CT(the person who creates these graphs and pictures).

He's fully admitted that the old graphs and pictures are not as accurate as the new ones, they essentially use old 70's/80's technology which although shows a rough guide just isn't accurate enough for todays measurements/standards.

Yes you are right in that the ice this year isn't as bad as last years yet, Although not by much if you use CT's raw figures. But this is still the second worse on record. Either in total re CT or at this point in time re IJIS and NSIC.