Australia Severe Weather Season 2008/9

[Supercell Hunters]

Yea saw that. Darwin had some ripper storms lately from massive hector cells!

So far here is just showery, mild and humid cloudy conditions, but set to clear before the weekend into mostly sunny and hotter weather. I say xmas bettles to come. Over 18mm recorded overnight.

[Supercell Hunters]

Forecast for Saturday

Early fog patches, then fine and mostly sunny. Light and variable winds, tending east to southeast in the afternoon.

Lismore: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 9 Max: 25

Cape Byron: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 15 Max: 22

Grafton: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 11 Max: 25

Forecast for Sunday

Fine. Light to moderate southeast to northeast winds.

Lismore: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 9 Max: 27

Forecast for Monday

Isolated showers developing in the south later. Northwest to northeast winds.

Lismore: Fine. Mostly sunny. Min: 10 Max: 29

Forecast for Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, chiefly afternoon or evening. Winds tending southeast to northeast.

Lismore: Afternoon showers/thunderstorm. Min: 12 Max: 29

I'm pretty sure Monday would be stormy for us aswell with post 30 degrees temperatures but ridiculously why the mins are so low at this time of year forecasted? Tuesday is good day for storms.

[Supercell Hunters]

Just got home from english paper 2 HSC and the gym workout and i got shocked at the forecasts! Tomorrow would be best setup of massive storms and some supercells would certainly fire up.

Stormcast going for strong instability, deep cold temps in uppers and mid levels where no moisture (good for solid updrafts and hail) and solid windshear at 25-35knots easter'ly direction.

NOTE: All models at 4pm EST tomorrow.

Bring it on supercells!

[Supercell Hunters]

Our forecasts becoming ferocious from severe storms tomorrow into east coast low wet and wild conditions!

Forecast for Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, chiefly in the afternoon and evening. Moderate northwest to northeast winds freshening near the coast in the afternoon, turning southerly later in south.

Lismore: A few showers, chance thunderstorm. Min: 12 Max: 29

Cape Byron: A few showers, chance thunderstorm. Min: 17 Max: 23

Grafton: A few showers, chance thunderstorm. Min: 14 Max: 29

Forecast for Wednesday

Scattered showers, chance thunderstorms in the north. Fresh and gusty south to southeast winds, strengthening on the coast.

Lismore: Shower or two, chance thunderstorm. Min: 13 Max: 28

Forecast for Thursday

Scattered showers. Gusty southerly winds, possible gales on the coast.

Lismore: Few showers. Windy. Min: 9 Max: 22

StormCast has changed a little bit!

[Supercell Hunters]

Now its on today! BoM's forecasts are now becoming more hopeful for today's possibly supercells.

Tuesday until midnight: Wind: N 15/20 knots, increasing to N 20/25 knots during the afternoon, reaching 25/30 knots south of Cape Byron, ahead of a S change 15/20 knots, reaching 20/30 knots south of Cape Byron in the evening. Sea: 1.5 to 2 metres, rising to 2 to 3 metres south of Cape Byron afternoon/evening. Swell: E/SE about 1 metre. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Gusts to 45 knots possible.

Forecast for Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, developing during the afternoon and evening. Moderate northwest to northeast winds freshening near the coast in the afternoon, turning southerly during the afternoon and evening.

Lismore: Afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms. Max: 29

Cape Byron: Afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms. Max: 23

Grafton: Afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms. Max: 29

Stormcast for us today at 4pm.

[Supercell Hunters]

In Summary

Lifted Index: -10.3

CAPE: 3100

SWEAT Index: 350

TT: 54 (tornadic)

SHEAR: E/NE 25-35knots

Instability areas

Mid North Coast: HIGH

Northern Rivers: EXTREME

Gold Coast/Darling Downs (eastern parts): VERY HIGH

Brisbane/Sunshine Coast: HIGH

I would say that most of action may happen south of border at start before moving into SEQld.

[Supercell Hunters]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND

For people in parts of the

MID NORTH COAST and

NORTHERN TABLELANDS Forecast Districts.

Issued at 1:24 pm Tuesday, 21 October 2008.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Coffs Harbour, Kempsey, Armidale, Woolgoolga, Sawtell and Dorrigo.

[Supercell Hunters]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND

For people in the

NORTHERN RIVERS,

NORTHERN TABLELANDS and parts of the

MID NORTH COAST Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:20 pm Tuesday, 21 October 2008.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce giant hailstones, (hail upto the size of Golf Balls), very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Armidale, Tenterfield, , Guyra, Casino, Kyogle, Yamba, Maclean, Woolgoolga, Sawtell and Dorrigo.

Golf Ball sized hail was reported from Woolgoolga just after 3pm, and large hail from near Crescent Head just after 2pm.

Cells firing up locally now! Nasty pulsie updrafts with crisp on tops in west! Better starting up chasing very soon!

[Supercell Hunters]

Today was one of my best storms i ever experienced. I have seen two rotating supercells that came past including a large RFB cloud and great souther'ly change roll cloud.

Today started out very warm and humid with strong northeaster'ly seabreezes. The conditions maxed out 27.5/18.3 75%. This is certainly great for deep instability. First went to the river watched the storms goes by after 5pm with my fellow mate Dylan. We had great time experiencing rotating clouds and nice mammatus structure.

However we watched the first storm comes by across the river with nasty looking rotating RFB. Has scored some nice lightning bolts! The souther'ly change has came with this first supercell. Certainly reported hail and damaging winds at Wardell and Woodburn areas.

We missed the first part by about 500metres of the core however at the time we got caught in souther'ly change. It was an hour earlier than expected. So eventually we had another look at the radar and looked in western skies, another STORM!

Then we head back to river again and watched the storm growing and became more intense. And we looked up in sky, SO LOW CLOSE MAMMATUS! I never seen that so close ever in my life at all. It was the best. However it died out as the convergence develops, it started rain and we rushed back home.

Only we had about 65km/hr souther'ly winds is max gust with total rainfall of 5.8mm. Thats pretty much for our area today. Lismore and Byron Bay scored the best of the day with hail, damaging wind gusts and a bit flash flooding.

[Supercell Hunters]

Hello all

My thunderstorm pics will be up around tomorrow or Saturday depends what i'm doing.

The weather is starting to be real summery from Saturday onwards with max between 28-35 and min 15-22 with some thundery action from Monday onwards.

[Supercell Hunters]

Warming up again and storms from this weekend onwards!

[Supercell Hunters]

Nice thunderstorm we just had. Lovely 8mm out of this one. Massive line of storms on radar, current exiting towards the sea. Plenty more to come. Hopefully to get some lightning shots today! But the real issue is i have Physics exam tomorrow morning.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for FLASH FLOODING

For people in the

NORTHERN RIVERS and parts of the

NORTHERN TABLELANDS Forecast Districts.

Issued at 7:38 am Monday, 3 November 2008.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Yamba and Maclean.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in the NORTH WEST SLOPES, NORTH WEST PLAINS and UPPER WESTERN districts and the warning for these districts is CANCELLED.

68mm has been recorded at Inverell and 60mm at Glen Innes from this line of storms this morning.

Forecast for Monday

Rain periods developing during the morning, then easing to showers with scattered thunderstorms, more likely during the afternoon. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds.

Lismore: Showers/thunderstorms. Max: 29

Cape Byron: Showers/thunderstorms. Max: 24

Grafton: Showers/thunderstorms. Max: 29

Not sure if we going to see high 20's temperatures? Because its very cloudy like yesterday.

[Supercell Hunters]

Had 35mm out of storms yesterday. Nice heavy rain so far and currently over 2,400mm for year which is about 700mm over average aswell.

[Supercell Hunters]

Looks like storms everyday from Thursday!!! Another outbreak?

Thursday

Windshear improving alot better on Friday with more norther'y to northeaster'ly directions and turning more easter'ly direction on Saturday.

Instability is a little crooked on Friday but improving on the weekend.

Good heating on surfaces especially from Thursday. I would expecting to see lightning bolts. So i can use the shutter and take them!

[Supercell Hunters]

Storms forecasted today. Good soundings. Li down to -6 and CAPE 2000. I can do lightning shot by my 15sec shutter! Lets hope!

[mac]

Great work SH, obvious rotation in some of your pics from 21st Oct.

[Supercell Hunters]

Thanks Mac!

Stormcast updated. Instability has deepen since this morning update. Li's skyrocketing.

Its currently 27.5/20 72%.

[Supercell Hunters]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for FLASH FLOODING, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in the MID NORTH COAST, HUNTER and parts of the NORTHERN RIVERS, NORTHERN TABLELANDS, CENTRAL TABLELANDS, NORTH WEST SLOPES and CENTRAL WEST SLOPES Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:32 pm Saturday, 15 November 2008.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Grafton, Newcastle, Scone, Cessnock, Maitland and Mudgee.

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDN65043.gif?foo...he=200811151433

Black core appearing both on Grafton and Newcastle radars. The sky now is like a shock absorber!

[Supercell Hunters]

Geeze more storms tomorrow?

Forecast for Saturday evening

Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Moderate north to northeast winds, fresh along the coast.

Forecast for Sunday

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, chiefly during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds ahead of a moderate south to southeast change in the afternoon, fresh near the coast.

Lismore: Few showers, chance thunderstorm. Min: 18 Max: 30

Cape Byron: Few showers, chance thunderstorm. Min: 20 Max: 26

Grafton: Few showers, chance thunderstorm. Min: 20 Max: 29

Currently it felt like going to pour in next minute lol! Nice super updrafts and anvils in westsouthwest views.

[Supercell Hunters]

Woot and wow its 29.6/23.1 feels like 34.6! Sounding going nuts!!!

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?s...3&mixop=usr

Better storms today, certainly one or few supercells or real intense severe storms.

[Supercell Hunters]

Getting far more interesting now! Two main cells about to collide and moving towards here at North Lismore! STW is out now and it missing Casino and Lismore on list!

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for FLASH FLOODING

For people in parts of the

NORTHERN RIVERS,

MID NORTH COAST and

NORTHERN TABLELANDS Forecast Districts.

Issued at 1:18 pm Sunday, 16 November 2008.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Tweed Heads, Murwillumbah, Kyogle, Tabulam, Dorrigo and Ebor.

[Supercell Hunters]

Saturday 15th November 2008 Weak storms

On previous day forecasts went for ‘wet’ thunderstorms across north eastern New South Wales. However they turned out weak thunderstorms after 4:30pm. They produced moderate to heavy rainfalls across the populated areas of Northern Rivers such as Lismore, Casino and Ballina.

I have been watching these groups of thunderstorms for several hours during the afternoon. It was exciting earlier because of intensity was strong enough to be severe. However they died out before reaching us due to lower instability and windshear.

Have recorded 12mm of rain at North Lismore at the time of series of thundery/showery periods after they hit us overnight.

Sunday 16th November 2008 Heavy rainstorms

The set up of thunderstorms are similar to previous day but it has deeper instability and convective level. After an early heat and humidity as conditions maxed out 31/23! Then the southerly change hit us and lowered the temperature. Low level junk cloud developed after Tabulam multicells. This became very annoying due to less photogenetic! After 2pm, series of thunderstorms has died before reaching us and missed out the same area yesterday. Main thunderstorm went through Kyogle and Bonalbo areas. South east Queensland reported the best severe storms of the day due to position of southerly change.

Finally, we had series of thundery rain, some sorts of torrential bursts and some lightning displayed fainted behind low level junk. Recorded a nice 20mm of rainfalls and shortly next day have series of light to heavy showery periods tending to rain areas.

It was great start of the season. It was the best time for rain locally and that made the land so much green as you colour with textas!

Enjoy!

[Supercell Hunters]

Quite amazing to wake up a new day with STW out for Upper Western NSW and far Western Qld. Nice early rain cleared but still cloudy, heres hoping for clouds to clear sometime during the day. Howevere the temperature and dewpoints are skyrocketing anyways. Currently 22.2/21.2.

Heres the stormcast for today at 4pm.

it looking good for us today especially in Northern Rivers due to cooler uppers that can lead for large hailstones.

So bring it on day one!

[Supercell Hunters]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND

For people in the NORTHERN RIVERS, MID NORTH COAST, HUNTER, NORTHERN TABLELANDS, NORTH WEST SLOPES, NORTH WEST PLAINS and parts of the METROPOLITAN, CENTRAL TABLELANDS, CENTRAL WEST SLOPES, CENTRAL WEST PLAINS and UPPER WESTERN Forecast Districts.

Issued at 1:36 pm Thursday, 20 November 2008.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree, Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Armidale, Tamworth and Moree.

A 100 km/h wind gust was recorded at Narrabri Airport.

Getting more interesting now!! Casino cell is in our direction atm but lets hope to stay alive for our first present of the day until mass of severe storms from Goodiwindi areas.

[Supercell Hunters]

Thursday 20th November 2008 HP Mesocyclone produce severe winds

A very warm and humid partly cloudy condition has settled into early afternoon to help the cap to break. Firstly a nice cell hits Evans Head firstly, and then came for second and third time! Eventually severe storms developed from the far west coming over the region. I never have seen a lot of series of rotations around! A new explosive thunderstorm formed from across the river to form the line from its north.

Around 6:30pm, a large mesocyclonic gust front developed from southwest of Ballina after the notice of large green tinge in clouds for first 30mins. The base of mesocyclone appears over the town.

Dylan and I went to the Missingham Bridge to watch the storm coming through. At the time lightning was so intense and frequent! We took few photos of this nasty pulsating cgs mesocyclone gust front. Then we rushed back to home before hail, a lot of drivers around went mad! They were also rushing.

Eventually the storm hit us around 7pm with gale to storm force wind gusts over 100-110km/hr. Few gusts were stronger and hard to estimate due to microbursts, small hail fell. But not enough to see them at least we heard them tinkling on the windows. This severe storm was best one since last month. It was a High Precipitation supercell. Recorded a lovely 25.5mm of rain. There were tree damage along our street and also major out in other parts of Ballina.

Enjoy!