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Major Hurricane Omar


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Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

    well TD 15 has formed and is forecast to become a hurricane as it heads northeastwards over the next few days. maybe this will be omar, but its life will i guess be shortlived as it heads further north

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    another Atlantic storm

    at200815.gif

    storm alert

    Storm Alert issued at 13 Oct, 2008 15:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression AL15 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the British Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

    Anguilla

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

    Guadeloupe

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

    the Netherlands Antilles

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 5% currently

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Puerto Rico

    probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

    the Dominican Republic

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    heading into cooler waters may reduce the life of this one, worth keeping an eye on though :)

    Of course, it will pass Puerto Rico first and may well be a danger to them.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme.....
  • Location: Hastings, East Sussex

    mks_mug.gif

    Commentary & Updates by: Mark Sudduth, HurricaneTrack.com Founder, Editor

    Email me at: mailroom@hurricanetrack.com UPDATED: 10:45 am EDT, October 13, 2008

    TD #15 FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN- COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AND IMPACT PUERTO RICO, VIRGIN ISLANDS

    98L is now TD #15 with top winds of 35 mph. The NHC made the upgrade just a little while ago. The forecast shows modest strengthening and the depression could become a hurricane before all is said and done. Most of the model guidance, as well as the official forecast from the NHC, shows the cyclone moving northwest for a short period of time and then hooking back to the north and northeast with a possible crossing of Puerto Rico later this week. Before any of the stronger winds arrive, the main threat will be extremely heavy rains and this will almost certainly lead to significant problems for islands such as Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This is a slow moving weather feature and it will have time to dump copious amounts of rain- people need to be aware of this and prepare accordingly. A recon plane will be in the area later today to provide more info on the depression and determine whether or not it has become a tropical storm. If/when it does, the name will be "Omar".

    We are also watching newly designated 99L in the western Caribbean- something (the potential for development) we have been talking about here for almost a week. The pattern is ripe and this is all completely in line with the busy hurricane season we are experiencing. It is going to be a busy week ahead for sure. I'll post more here later this afternoon.

    UPDATED: 6:10 am EDT, October 13, 2008

    TS NANA RUNNING OUT OF TIME AS NEW DEPRESSION LIKELY FORMING IN THE CARIBBEAN

    The NHC began issuing advisories on TS Nana yesterday afternoon and may cease those advisories later today. The reason? Strong upper level winds are tearing the clouds away from the center of the storm- which is located well out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. It is a concern for shipping interests only and should dissipate over the next day or so.

    In the Caribbean Sea, we have a much larger issue to deal with. There appears to be a new tropical depression forming in the eastern Caribbean and we should know more about it later today as a Hurricane Hunter crew is scheduled to fly in to investigate the system. Most of the computer models indicate that this will develop and move off towards either Hispaniola or Puerto Rico on its way out to sea. This is a major concern because of its slow moving nature and its ability to dump excessive rain. The islands of the Caribbean have received more than enough rain this hurricane season and more, especiall from a slow moving system, is bad news. This could end up being a big news maker not for the wind and surge but once again for the rain and flooding. People in the region need to take every precaution they can for this developing situation. As I mentioned, we'll know more about the structure of the disturbance later today once recon gets in there.

    To the west, in the western Caribbean, there is also a flare-up of showers and thunderstorms that could organize in to something worth watching. The models have been trying to develop something here off and on for the last week. This is all quite expected and part of the overall favorable pattern for this portion of the current hurricane season. Plus, these regions are favored this time of year in any hurricane season. While there are no threats to the United States as of now, the main issues will be to some of the land areas of the eastern Caribbean Sea for now and possibly the western Caribbean later in the week. I'll post another update here as soon as the info from the recon plane becomes availableCourtesy of Hurricane Track

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    Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

    thanks Debby

    NOAA discussion for TD15

    000

    WTNT45 KNHC 131441

    TCDAT5

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

    1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

    THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS

    DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED

    AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY...I WOULD WAIT FOR THE

    RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO

    START ADVISORIES...BUT IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE

    PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE

    DEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND

    VECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL

    INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.

    THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR

    STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IS FAVORABLE

    ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12

    TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME

    MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE

    OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE

    DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF

    FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR

    PUERTO RICO.

    THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS

    DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR

    A DAY OR TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT

    PERIOD. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-

    LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED

    TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS

    TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE

    TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC

    THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND

    ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 13/1500Z 14.8N 69.6W 30 KT

    12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.1N 70.0W 35 KT

    24HR VT 14/1200Z 15.5N 70.0W 45 KT

    36HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 69.0W 50 KT

    48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 67.5W 55 KT

    72HR VT 16/1200Z 20.0N 63.5W 65 KT

    96HR VT 17/1200Z 24.0N 59.5W 65 KT

    120HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 65 KT

    $$

    FORECASTER AVILA

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Indeed, October produces another depression in the Atlantic. This one is likely to bring further flooding rains to Puerto Rico and Eastern Hispaniola before lifting northeastwards into the open Atlantic. Shear will fluctuate between moderate and high and strengthening should occur when it relaxes for any amount of time. Ocean heat content is high, thus TD15 is currently forecast to become a hurricane after clearing Puerto Rico. Agreed with the sentiments above, it shouldn't be a hurricane for long as it will be pushing briskly northeastwards into stronger shear and lower sea temperatures. It is a serious threat to the eastern Carribbean though.

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    Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

    agreed somerset, puerto rico looks to be a little vunerable to flooding, but after that td15/hurricane omar will decline in the atlantic. still, i wasnt expecting such a busy october.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    an update

    Storm Alert issued at 13 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression AL15 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the British Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

    Anguilla

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

    Guadeloupe

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 69 hours

    the Netherlands Antilles

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

    probability for TS is 5% currently

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the Dominican Republic

    probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

    Puerto Rico

    probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

    the Virgin Islands

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

    probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

    probability for TS is 35% in about 45 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update

    Storm Alert issued at 14 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT

    Tropical Depression AL15 is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Puerto Rico

    probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

    the British Virgin Islands

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    the Virgin Islands

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    Anguilla

    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

    Guadeloupe

    probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

    Note that

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

    It's getting quite busy over there.

    SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO

    BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY

    WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED

    IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE

    INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT

    SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS

    SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE

    NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL

    DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.

    THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH

    TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF

    CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE

    INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL

    AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY

    PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...

    AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST

    TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF

    SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.

    NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE

    SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR

    GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

    TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK

    ...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR

    EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

    RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION

    SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.

    IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE

    THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS

    WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE

    FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW

    PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS

    THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF

    STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE

    NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD

    OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER

    THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2

    AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE

    PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF

    MODELS.

    FORECASTER STEWART

    Is it possible we could have the thread merged with the other one?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    It's been a bit slow, but TD15 is indeed now Tropical Storm Omar. Omar has some good deep convection over the centre which will help further development. Shear has eased and waters are very warm beneath the storm so Omar is expected to intensify. However, as far as motion goes, Omar is not following forecasts. The storm is actuallty moving east-southeastwards at the moment, towards South America. However, Omar is still expected to turn northeast, but because of the eastward component to the motion, Omar may miss a direct landfall on Puerto Rico. It won't make much difference though, Omar will continue to bring some torrential rains to the eastern Caribbean over the next few days before moving out into the open Atlantic. Omar is expected to become a hurricane as it clears Puerto Rico and move northeastwards at an increased speed. This will eventually bring Omar into stronger shear and cooler waters, though these unfavourable conditions are a long way off yet so Omar has ample oppurtunity to become a little stronger than 65kts which is what the NHC are forecasting currently.

    post-1820-1224007310_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

    Omar on the brink of becoming a hurricane. according to the noaa sustained winds are at 70 mph. omar is expected to be cat 2 by the time it reaches the leeward islands. some rapid intensification on the cards

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    Omar on the brink of becoming a hurricane. according to the noaa sustained winds are at 70 mph. omar is expected to be cat 2 by the time it reaches the leeward islands. some rapid intensification on the cards

    Indeed LS, Omar is now at 60kts, and there are hints of an eye in latest satellite imagery. Low shear and hot waters are facilitating rapid intensification, it's even possible that Omar may become stronger than a cat 2. Omar is a major threat to the eastern Caribbean.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley, East Yorkshire. 52m, 170ft
  • Location: Beverley, East Yorkshire. 52m, 170ft

    Hi, we're going to Antigua on Friday and I would love to see a tropical storm.

    Do you think it will miss Antigua and do you think it will be all over by the time that we land on Friday 1:30pm Eastern Caribbean Time - 6:30pm British time??

    http://www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=52075

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

    http://www.antiguasun.com/paper/?as=view&a...08&ac=Local

    Cheers

    gobbyash :D

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    Posted
  • Location: cotswolds
  • Location: cotswolds

    i'm not familiar with the islands of the eastern caribbean. omar is, as you say somerset, ripe for rapid intensification, as backed up by the noaa, so one to keep a close eye on. organisation has improved a good deal. we shall see

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    Hi, we're going to Antigua on Friday and I would love to see a tropical storm.

    Do you think it will miss Antigua and do you think it will be all over by the time that we land on Friday 1:30pm Eastern Caribbean Time - 6:30pm British time??

    Omar will probably be just about clear into the Atlantic by that point, unless he remains slow moving like currently. Antigua is likely to be affected by Omar in the next two days, most likely as a hurricane.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beverley, East Yorkshire. 52m, 170ft
  • Location: Beverley, East Yorkshire. 52m, 170ft
    Omar will probably be just about clear into the Atlantic by that point, unless he remains slow moving like currently. Antigua is likely to be affected by Omar in the next two days, most likely as a hurricane.

    Oh dear, we have a friend who fly's there tomorrow :D

    Where can I view the best images/information about its development??

    Many thanks

    gobbyash

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    Oh dear, we have a friend who fly's there tomorrow :D

    Where can I view the best images/information about its development??

    Many thanks

    gobbyash

    A few links I use:

    NRL

    NHC

    UNISYS

    WUNDERGROUND

    CIMSS

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    information on places likely to be affected

    Storm Alert issued at 14 Oct, 2008 21:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the British Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

    the Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

    the Netherlands Antilles

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    Anguilla

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    Guadeloupe

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    St. Kitts and Nevis

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

    Puerto Rico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 55% in about 33 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Antigua and Barbuda

    probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

    Montserrat

    probability for TS is 45% in about 45 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

    Omar is now a rapidly developing Hurricane with winds due to exceed 100mph, it could hit PR but might just sneak to the east.

    Longer term, its very likely to pass over the UK at some point next weekTHERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...

    HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS

    BECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES

    ON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA

    OF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY. DVORAK

    CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.

    IN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT

    AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE

    ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

    THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR

    SO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO

    A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN. IT SHOULD

    ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A

    60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A

    LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON

    INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

    BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5. THERE HAS

    BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.

    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING

    SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN

    EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE

    TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE HWRF AND

    GFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

    ENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL

    SPREAD IS NOT LARGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE

    CONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.3N 68.1W 65 KT

    12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 67.1W 75 KT

    24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 65.4W 85 KT

    36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.3W 90 KT

    48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.1W 90 KT

    72HR VT 18/0000Z 27.0N 58.0W 80 KT

    96HR VT 19/0000Z 33.0N 54.0W 70 KT

    120HR VT 20/0000Z 41.0N 44.0W 60 KT

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    new update

    Storm Alert issued at 15 Oct, 2008 9:00 GMT

    Hurricane OMAR is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    the British Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

    the Virgin Islands

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

    the Netherlands Antilles

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

    Puerto Rico

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

    Anguilla

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

    Guadeloupe

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 33 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 33 hours

    St. Kitts and Nevis

    probability for TS is 60% in about 33 hours

    Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    St. Croix (17.7 N, 64.9 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

    St. Thomas (18.5 N, 64.7 W)

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 21 hours

    probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

    Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Antigua and Barbuda

    probability for TS is 45% in about 33 hours

    Montserrat

    probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

    Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

    San Juan (18.4 N, 66.1 W)

    probability for TS is 40% in about 21 hours

    Note that

    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

    Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

    CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

    ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL

    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    BULLETIN

    HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008

    500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008

    ...OMAR CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE

    ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

    A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...

    SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN

    ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

    PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND

    MONTSERRAT.

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

    EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

    PUERTO RICO.

    A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

    WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED

    NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...

    455 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

    OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS

    MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD

    SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR WOULD

    MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY

    THURSDAY.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

    GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

    SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

    THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105

    MILES...165 KM.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE

    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

    OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES

    OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

    12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM

    AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND

    NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL

    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20

    INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN

    LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH

    FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

    LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

    EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN

    ADDITION...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL

    AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE

    ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH

    EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

    REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...67.7 W. MOVEMENT

    TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB.

    AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

    CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

    AM AST.

    $$

    FORECASTER PASCH

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