Arctic Ice 2009

[Iceberg]

There must be buggered If I can find them.

I only have the AMRSE data set to go on. Which is reasonably accurate but doesn't give you the feel for fractural break up.

[pottyprof]

Are there these sat pics going back 10 or 20 years, no simply because we didn't have the capability.

Polar orbiting satellites have existed since the early 60s..

[Iceberg]

Yes but not with that instrumentation on board !. Modis was lauched in 1999 Aqua 2002.

[karyo]

Yes but not with that instrumentation on board !. Modis was lauched in 1999 Aqua 2002.

So there's nothing to prove that similar breaks in the ice have not happened before at this time of the year? Now we have the satellite technology to monitor those breaks but without comparison they prove very little.

Like last summer, i'll stick with the monitoring of the Artic sea ice extend http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

Karyo

[tundra]

Arctic ice is in a far healthier state than it was this time last year and with a -pdo, cooling Atlantic and deep solar minima it obviously looks like the trend will continue. To argue against such obvious facts is to argue just for the sake of it with no foundations to back any of the meaningless agw rantings.

The Arctic ice is here to stay and the longer the denialists go on with their nonsense the more and more foolish they will look.

[Iceberg]

No I've never said that they haven't happen before, nor do they prove or disprove things, what they do show is what it's like up there, which is worth looking at. It can also show us how healthy things are.

It's rather bizarre to ignore what's actually happening on the ground in favour of a small piece of the puzzel that's provided by a single ice index, as important as that is.

Arctic ice is in a far healthier state than it was this time last year and with a -pdo, cooling Atlantic and deep solar minima it obviously looks like the trend will continue. To argue against such obvious facts is to argue just for the sake of it with no foundations to back any of the meaningless agw rantings.

The Arctic ice is here to stay and the longer the denialists go on with their nonsense the more and more foolish they will look.

I remember exactly the same being said by others this time last year, they became very quite when the ice finally finished only fractionally up on the record low of the previous year......

[karyo]

I remember exactly the same being said by others this time last year, they became very quite when the ice finally finished only fractionally up on the record low of the previous year......

In terms of Artic ice melt, the most important months are ahead of us. However, i am very pleased that we are experiencing a good start with more ice coverage and albedo effect than last year. If the extend was dropping sharply at this stage, i would be concerned but as things stand i am relieved.

Last year we saw a big decline in August and we came close to the 2007 levels but very importantly a little higher than then. A recovery would have to start from somewhere and it would have been unrealistic to expect a big jump upwards in 2008 after such a great loss the year before.

Some people may have gone quiet when the melt accelerated last summer but similarly some other people seem to make absolutely no mention to the current sea ice extent. However, i clearly remember that the graph was posted pretty frequently last August when it was showing a sharp drop!

Karyo

[tundra]

I remember exactly the same being said by others this time last year, they became very quite when the ice finally finished only fractionally up on the record low of the previous year......

[Roger J Smith]

It's worth keeping in mind that there is usually a fairly long lag time between PDO reversal and other signals such as expanding arctic ice or colder winters away from the immediate Pacific basin. And natural variability contines at about the same rate, so that individual years or seasons may vary greatly from longer-term trends.

We're certainly noticing the effects of a colder Pacific Ocean here, temperatures have averaged about 1.5 C below normal here since November. Snow melt has been slow in the alpine. This was one of the five snowiest winters on record here. If this trend keeps up then we could see a reversal of glacial retreat in this region as was the case in the previous -PDO event.

[weather eater]

Roll on next winter, should be a good un.

I hate to be pedantic but isn’t that what was said last year, hale winter and all that, and yes it turned out to be colder than recent winters but memorable it was not, in fact pretty average at least for us and northern Europe. Put it this way I use a motorbike to get to a lot of my work, I live at nearly 200m about 8 miles from Buxton reputedly one of the snowiest towns in Britain, I only left the bike at home about 4 times this winter.

Tundra nobody would like to see more than I, that its all a natural cycle and AGW is all myth I love cold and snowy winters and I like to see someone so sure of things, but the one thing I've learnt about climate is that nothing is that predictable and that next winter whether cold or mild will not settle the argument

2015 has been mentioned a fair amount recently and a clear and significant cooling trend leading up to that point is what I would like to see if CO2 driven AGW is to be debunked.

As for artic ice, while updates are interesting the maximum summer melt will be the real talking point.

[osmposm]

....meaningless agw rantings....the longer the denialists go on with their nonsense......

Oh....just my usual plea to moderate the abusive language - on either side.

Just because you disagree it doesn't mean it's meaningless, a rant, or nonsense. It may or may not be right, but just stick to explaining why you think otherwise. And have the courtesy to accept that different views to yours can and are held by intelligent people with no agenda other than their concern for their home planet.

Thank you.

[tundra]

I hate to be pedantic but isn't that what was said last year, hale winter and all that, and yes it turned out to be colder than recent winters but memorable it was not, in fact pretty average at least for us and northern Europe. Put it this way I use a motorbike to get to a lot of my work, I live at nearly 200m about 8 miles from Buxton reputedly one of the snowiest towns in Britain, I only left the bike at home about 4 times this winter.

Tundra nobody would like to see more than I, that its all a natural cycle and AGW is all myth I love cold and snowy winters and I like to see someone so sure of things, but the one thing I've learnt about climate is that nothing is that predictable and that next winter whether cold or mild will not settle the argument

2015 has been mentioned a fair amount recently and a clear and significant cooling trend leading up to that point is what I would like to see if CO2 driven AGW is to be debunked.

As for artic ice, while updates are interesting the maximum summer melt will be the real talking point.

I agree winter 2008-9 was far from memorable but it was a definate step in the right direction. all i am saying is if the sun remains dormant so to speak and the AMO index continues to fall along with a -PDO then the risk of colder, harsher winters in this country and across the northern hemisphere in general will increase.

[pottyprof]

I remember exactly the same being said by others this time last year, they became very quite when the ice finally finished only fractionally up on the record low of the previous year......

Strange.. I don't remember being quite.. I can remember being quiet though at times.. But that was down to me contemplating my belly button fluff after rolling on the floor with laughter when the record depletion didn't happen for a second year in a row.. as forecast by many a person....

There might have been others but I can't remember anyone being quite quiet..

I think you must be thinking of another forum...

[osmposm]

..But that was down to me contemplating my belly button fluff after rolling on the floor with laughter when the record depletion didn't happen for a second year in a row..

Ah, glad you find the second lowest Arctic minimum ice extent recorded since 1979 such a hoot, prof....the next lowest being around 1 million sq km higher than that....and all of them - in fact all the top-ten lowest recorded - being in the last 11 years.

Let us hope it continues to creep - or better still, leap - upwards again this year. I may allow myself a gentle smile if it does, but I think I'll reserve the laughing/rolling bit till we've had the same 11 years of growing as we had shrinking. Even five more years would be an encouraging start.

Edited April 25, 2009 by osmposm

[laserguy]

in fact all the top-ten lowest recorded - being in the last 11 years.

Let us hope it continues to creep - or better still, leap - upwards again this year. I may allow myself a gentle smile if it does, but I think I'll reserve the laughing/rolling bit till we've had the same 11 years of growing as we had shrinking. Even five more years would be an encouraging start.

And exactly how long have accurate records been kept for? You might as well have your laugh/roll right now,Ossie - it's in the bag,trust LG :lol: .

[Methuselah]

I agree winter 2008-9 was far from memorable but it was a definate step in the right direction. all i am saying is if the sun remains dormant so to speak and the AMO index continues to fall along with a -PDO then the risk of colder, harsher winters in this country and across the northern hemisphere in general will increase.

So is every time any particular winter season just happens to be less-warm than the preceding one. :lol: The problem lies in all the equally unpredictable steps in the wrong direction!

One season, whether it's warmer or cooler, does not make a trend!

[pottyprof]

Ah, glad you find the second lowest Arctic minimum ice extent recorded since 1979 such a hoot, prof....the next lowest being around 1 million sq km higher than that....and all of them - in fact all the top-ten lowest recorded - being in the last 11 years.

Oh, don't get me wrong.. It was all the drama from here there and everywhere that had me laughing..

[tundra]

So is every time any particular winter season just happens to be less-warm than the preceding one. :lol: The problem lies in all the equally unpredictable steps in the wrong direction!

One season, whether it's warmer or cooler, does not make a trend!

Of course their will be warmer summers and milder winters just like their was 200, 300 years ago but the general trend will be colder.

[Methuselah]

Maybe yes maybe no? :lol:

[osmposm]

And exactly how long have accurate records been kept for? You might as well have your laugh/roll right now,Ossie - it's in the bag,trust LG :lol: .

As I said in my post, since 1979. It may have happened like this before within the last 1000 years, it may not - the evidence is mixed and partly anecdotal (though many reconstructions have been attempted), so the arguments will continue. It seems quite likely that the direct deep water NW Passage opening completely is new in post-Medieval history - two years running, now - since so much money and effort was spent trying unsuccessfully to find it in the age of exploration; but we cannot be absolutely sure of that. The balance of evidence for 20th-21st Century suggests it's was mainly a downward trend (here's Cryosphere's chart: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....1900-2007.jpg), but even some of that is open to reasonable dispute. So I take your point.....but taking just the inadequate (?)undisputed last 30 year section, I really don't like the look of things in the last one-third.

So I'll save the really broad smiles of relief till around 2019 (if I last that long), IF (and it's a big if) the summer minimum continues to grow from the 2007 level. If 30 years is too short a timespan to tell you anything, where does that leave ONE year?!!!

Ossie

PS Nice to see you back.

[laserguy]

So I'll save the really broad smiles of relief till around 2019 (if I last that long), IF (and it's a big if) the summer minimum continues to grow from the 2007 level. If 30 years is too short a timespan to tell you anything, where does that leave ONE year?!!!

Ossie

PS Nice to see you back.

Ossie never fear,you'll be around easily long enough to see the spectacular collapse of AGW and the rise of Arctic ice I'm sure! Probably outlive me - a straight 36 hours without kip now,these damn shifts are killing me. Probably explains my er,occasional tetchiness. And thanks for the welcome back :lol: .

[Gray-Wolf]

Ossie never fear,you'll be around easily long enough to see the spectacular collapse of AGW and the rise of Arctic ice I'm sure! Probably outlive me - a straight 36 hours without kip now,these damn shifts are killing me. Probably explains my er,occasional tetchiness. And thanks for the welcome back .

My concern is that now ,since the demise of the 'bank' of perennial ice, the Arctic's perennial ice demise is running under it's own steam ('scuse the pun).

The 'old system' depended upon the rough percentages of ice to maintain itself within the 'old' given parameters.

We have seen a radical alteration in the ice 'age' balance over the past 7 years (and 50 years if we are looking at ice thinning across the basin) with dark water now playing a large role in the summer Arctic (feeding the arctic amplification).

If we have (AGW has) pushed too far in the arctic then there will be a global impacts on atmospheric circulation and ocean current flows (nothing major but enough to be measurable) as the new parameters settle into their 'new' rhythm.

If we have another 'melt' summer (like 07') then the ice will all but go leaving a very different set of summer drivers in the arctic (and their impacts on our climate globally)

Edited April 28, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[laserguy]

Relax GW,it's not worth getting stressed over. Just as we can do nowt about whatever avenue ol' Sol is contemplating going down,we can do nowt about ice be it north or south - be it for better or worse. Just watch and enjoy the ride whether it be bumpy or smooth... and rest assured that our carbon dioxide emissions have not,and cannot play any part in what does or does not happen. Another summer '07 would suit me fine too,all that luvverly rain!

[Iceberg]

Afternoon GW.

Looking at the latest ENSO foreacasts El Nino is due to really pick up from Aug onwards and particularly over the upcoming winter.

La Nina is predicted to end by the end of this month( see below) and indeed it has with positive anoms now being recorded.(expect a major pick up in Global temps for April carried though and enhanced for May).

ECM are expecting El Nino to start in July, CPC ditto.

PDO is still forecasted to remain slightly negative looking at the SST distribution in the Pacific.

For reference Solar input in to the arctic looks neutral to mildly above average, again this will be worth keeping an eye on.

Back to Arctic Ice and a warm plume coming into from Alaska is causes melting in the area of arctic ice above. This warming is tbh only gentle compared to what can and does happen so it will be interesting to see what if any effect this has on Arctic ice levels over there, particularly as we know this is first year ice.

My initial forecasts based on the above is a similar year to last year but not quite as low as 2007. With both NW and NE passage open, particular melt around NW Greenland.

If a serious El Nino kicks in I don't think it's effects will be felt until summer 2010. However saying this anything near to 2007 or 2008 melt seasons will be very bad news.

To put it into context ENSO didn't go above -0.1 last summer, this summer should see postive 0.3 to 0.8.

[Thundery wintry showers]

That sounds like the "burying one's head in the sand" approach. I've seen it all over life: assuming that everything will be okay, and adopting a "that's life" approach to problems regardless of whether we can do anything about them or not. It can be used to make the individuals who follow that approach happier, but it means that if there are injustices, or we're heading into worse times, we don't do anything about it when it's possible that we could have.

The argument "either AGW is false, or it's real but it can't be helped" is often indicative of a desire to keep things as they are and avoid having to make any changes that might be risky, or involve some discomfort, in the short term, regardless of the long term. Of course that isn't a hard and fast rule, but it's striking that this argument leads to the conclusion, "either way, let's not bother doing anything about it". And if we accept that something can't be helped, we bind ourselves by that limitation- it's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

As for the Arctic ice itself, I seriously doubt that AGW is the main cause of the ice melt- even if it is responsible for most of the recent global warming- though it may well be one of the contributors. Atmospheric circulation has already changed, importing more warm airmasses into the Arctic. Ocean circulation has changed, sending more warm waters into the Arctic Circle. And no study has been able to explain either of those trends through AGW alone, suggesting that natural cycles have at least heavily contributed.

I agree with Iceberg on the prediction of a similar minimum to 2008, though much depends on the strength of the first-year ice and the summer synoptics. I don't think El Nino actually has much of an effect on Arctic temperatures, for instance 1998 was not a particularly warm year in the Arctic, while 2005 was phenomenally warm there despite close to neutral ENSO.