The Curse Of The Modern Summer

[Roger J Smith]

I've got nothing but a title here.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

I've got nothing but a title here.

:lol:

Will we have 3 bad summers in a row ? Probably

Hopefully the run of bad summers won't continue any longer,can't be as bad as the run of winters without extreme cold.

:lol:

SP

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yeah i was thinking same got to start sometime, modern summer started august 06, 7 bad summer months in a row, becoming more low pressure dominated now our summers, hot spells like cold spells less likely

[conor123]

I really don't agree about there being a new 'modern summer'.

Yes weve had two poor summers but theres no evidence to suggest that this summer will be as poor as those.

July 2006 was an exceptionally great month and doesn't seem like yesterday.

Anything is possible this summer imo.

[Guest Mike W]

2 average Summers comapred to the loads of hot Summers that have swamped the CET series this decade. It's more likely to be a hot summer this year than an average one, going on past performance in recent years. From memory 2006 started cold and then from mid to late April, it was blowtorch all the way through. It can can be seen that from 1989 to present hot summers and/or above avergae summers have outnumbered average Summers, a fair amount xoming in at the Top 10 hottst Summers on record, So the Modern Summer is a hot one not a cool one. 1995 was the 3rd hottest, 2003 and 2006 I think was the 4th hottest. Other overall hot or notabley above avergae Sumemrs were 1989, 90, 91,94, 96, 97, 99, 01,02,04,05.

[Glacier Point]

In order to establish what will drive this summer, you need to identify why the last two have been relatively poor ?

- lack of El Nino conditions;

- low angular momentum base state favouring summertime high latitude blocking;

- delayed break down of the polar vortex;

- Pacific and Atlantic SSTA favouring neutral / negative NAO (5/6 last summer months have been -NAO and the other neutral / negative).

Of those four factors, I see three that are currently showing similar profiles to the last two years. The polar vortex is the outstanding issue - monitoring is essential here - the delayed impacts of the SSW are as much a Summer issue as a Winter one, as is the bizarre nature of the QBO right now possibly tied into a low solar episode.

Edited February 20, 2009 by Glacier Point

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I've really liked the 60's esque feel to the last two summers. A slighly warmer version of 1968 in my mind, especially summer 07, with slow moving lows giving some nice torrential thundery downpours on a southerly track and pressure higher to the north. As much as I would like some drier conditions this summer for particular outdoor activities I will need to do, a similar repeated pattern is very welcome by me with perhaps more emphasis on the high pressure to the north rather than too many slow moving lows.

Maybe we are just seeing the flavour of some -PDO style summers to come associated with more frequent La ninas? That is fine as long as they come along in the summer and we can switch to weak el nino for the winter :lol: Maybe then we will also see the higher blocking to the north as well....!

[Uncle_Barty]

Please god no... not another summer like the last two. Had too many summer plans repeatedly ruined by the poor weather in '07 and '08.

High latitude blocking.. go away please!!

[Stargazer]

Relax, folks - this year ends with a 9...

Well, I had to try and inject a little optimism :lol:

[Nick L]

The title of this thread made me laugh.

Conor, I think it's a joke to mock the modern winter thread.

But I love the "modern summer" - cool and wet, I hate the heat! But a little more sunshine than last year though.

Edited February 20, 2009 by nick2702

[reef]

The last two summers werent particularly cold ones, indeed, the 1980s had 6 summers that were cooler. I feel our perceptions on what a British summer on average is actually like have been heavily influenced by the last 20 years. In that period, only 4 summers (1993, 1998, 2007, 2008) were actually below average temperature-wise and even then, only just.

People generally tend to base their summer opinions on whether we get any hot temperatures and levels of rainfall of the frontal variety. Memories also tend to be short aswell, they forget before 2008 we had 5 well above average Junes in a row, not to mention two 17+C summers in 2003 and 2006, both with memorable heatwaves.

I cant imagine this forum if we got a truely cold summer (more than 1C below average). There would be prozac and wrist slitting that even winter 1988/89 didnt manage!

[Mark Bayley]

Wouldn't want a repeat of the last two Summers. High pressure, warm days with temps around 25c is my ideal summer weather. Some 30c+ days as well however thats a bit to much for me so only a short spell of that. Its not the hot days that bother me, its the horrible muggy nights. I also would like to see more storms as well. Didn't see many last year.

[Bottesford]

I cant imagine this forum if we got a truely cold summer (more than 1C below average). There would be prozac and wrist slitting that even winter 1988/89 didnt manage!

Too right - but it wouldn't be just on this forum (unlike poor winters) it'd be the whole country! Dull, wet summers generally bring the mood down of everyone - something I noticed to a certain extent the last two years. I remember going to the pub one July evening in 2007 with everyone feeling throughly miserable - it had been raining all day and the evening felt very chilly indeed and more akin to April than July. Many people wait all year for those brief light & warm months and it can be really depressing if they turn out poor. If you get nothing decent and August begins to draw to a close you then have at least 8 months to wait until the warmth might return - not nice at all.

[Yeti]

The last two summers werent particularly cold ones, indeed, the 1980s had 6 summers that were cooler. I feel our perceptions on what a British summer on average is actually like have been heavily influenced by the last 20 years. In that period, only 4 summers (1993, 1998, 2007, 2008) were actually below average temperature-wise and even then, only just.

People generally tend to base their summer opinions on whether we get any hot temperatures and levels of rainfall of the frontal variety. Memories also tend to be short aswell, they forget before 2008 we had 5 well above average Junes in a row, not to mention two 17+C summers in 2003 and 2006, both with memorable heatwaves.

I cant imagine this forum if we got a truely cold summer (more than 1C below average). There would be prozac and wrist slitting that even winter 1988/89 didnt manage!

The last two years were OK for temperature though - I think the problem was the enormous amount of rain and lack of sunshine. Yes, they weren't that below average temperature-wise but wrt rainfall and sunshine they were both woeful.

I like days of 18-25c and sunshine/partly cloudy in the main, with the odd heatwave thrown in. In that kind of weather you can do anything (almost). The problem with Britain is that the sea keeps temperatures extremely warm at night during heatwaves compared to a lot of countries (in Spain for example temps get down to 12-15c, often, after a 30c day). The upside of that is being out at night when dawn comes at 3.30 and it's still 21c!!! Always a great atmosphere.

[Nick L]

The last two years were OK for temperature though - I think the problem was the enormous amount of rain and lack of sunshine. Yes, they weren't that below average temperature-wise but wrt rainfall and sunshine they were both woeful.

I like days of 18-25c and sunshine/partly cloudy in the main, with the odd heatwave thrown in. In that kind of weather you can do anything (almost). The problem with Britain is that the sea keeps temperatures extremely warm at night during heatwaves compared to a lot of countries (in Spain for example temps get down to 12-15c, often, after a 30c day). The upside of that is being out at night when dawn comes at 3.30 and it's still 21c!!! Always a great atmosphere.

The warm nights are the worst part of summer by far. At least for the past 2 years we haven't had to suffer it!

[Bottesford]

Thing is - Europe has plenty of warm nights too so it's not just us. I went to Germany, Poland & Ukraine last year where it stayed warm every night for the two weeks I was travelling. When I say warm I do mean warm - t-shirt weather at night even when sat down kind of thing. But I had no trouble with sweaty nights or sleeplessness at all. True warm nights don't generally bother me anyway but back in the UK warm sultry nights are indeed much more difficult to deal with for some.

I think the difference is humidity. To get warm nights here it has to be humid which makes it uncomfortable. In mainland Europe the large land mass keeps things both warm & dry - the best of both worlds.

Low humidity here generally means much cooler nights although maybe with warm/hot days.

Having spent two weeks in Europe I loved that kind of summer climate- almost always warm day & night so a proper outdoor culture - but definitely not sweaty duvet kicking conditions. Our nights are generally cooler but with occasional warm sweaty nights.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my favourite summer days

8th june 08 wasnt too hot 24oC max unbroken sun and was the date of the yearly bbq, hows that for non sods law, night also wasnt too warm

think i want summer here now really, this season seems to have dragged on for months, wont get any worthwhile cold spells now its too late (at least not here) any snow just gone in a flash

Edited February 20, 2009 by mark forster 630

[Terminal Moraine]

The last two summers werent particularly cold ones, indeed, the 1980s had 6 summers that were cooler. I feel our perceptions on what a British summer on average is actually like have been heavily influenced by the last 20 years. In that period, only 4 summers (1993, 1998, 2007, 2008) were actually below average temperature-wise and even then, only just.

People generally tend to base their summer opinions on whether we get any hot temperatures and levels of rainfall of the frontal variety. Memories also tend to be short aswell, they forget before 2008 we had 5 well above average Junes in a row, not to mention two 17+C summers in 2003 and 2006, both with memorable heatwaves.

I cant imagine this forum if we got a truely cold summer (more than 1C below average). There would be prozac and wrist slitting that even winter 1988/89 didnt manage! B)

You took the words right out of my keyboard, Reef. I was about to post something similar this morning but didn't get around to doing it.

Although 2007 and 2008 were wet there has been no combination of wet and really cool since 1988. The summers of 1972, 1974, 1978, 1980, 1985, 1986 and 1987 were all worse ( if warm and dry is your thing ) than any of the last 15, and going back even further there were notably poor summers in 1954, 1956, 1965 and 1966.

There must be a whole generation of young people who have never experienced a really poor British summer, and have also never experienced a really cold winter.

How equable our climate has become.

[Solar Cycles]

With continuing low solar activity, a negative PDO, I wouldn't rush out to stock up on sun screen just yet!!

[Nick L]

You took the words right out of my keyboard, Reef. I was about to post something similar this morning but didn't get around to doing it.

Although 2007 and 2008 were wet there has been no combination of wet and really cool since 1988. The summers of 1972, 1974, 1978, 1980, 1985, 1986 and 1987 were all worse ( if warm and dry is your thing ) than any of the last 15, and going back even further there were notably poor summers in 1954, 1956, 1965 and 1966.

There must be a whole generation of young people who have never experienced a really poor British summer, and have also never experienced a really cold winter.

How equable our climate has become.

Well 2007 can't have been far off it, flooding that you don't normally see even in winter should classify it as a poor summer in anybody's eyes. 2008 wasn't awful, but the incredible lack of sun was a real downer.

[J10]

I would prefer a drier sunnier summer than the past 2 years and preferably a little warmer, being close to the coasts, we don't tend to the extreme heat in the summer,

[Optimus Prime]

Mean minima in the summers 07/08 have been near average, although August 08' had plenty of sultry mornings. It's been generally mean maxima that have made the summers feel cool. By night August 07' was memorable for it's appreciably cold mornings at times.

Summer 07;

Mean Maxima 19.4c (-0.8c)

Minima 11.5c (+0.5c)

Summer 08;

Mean Maxima 19.4c (-0.8c)

Minima 11.8c (+0.8c)

[MP-R]

In response to Terminal Moraine's comment about younger generations not having experienced truely poor summers, I can back that. Even the poorER summers have had action whether it be from brief heatwaves to thunderstorms to floods. I think the only true poor summer here was that of 2000, the first one I ever recorded. That was diabolical and the autumn that followed was pretty abismal too.

I think too many people expect summers in the UK to be long, dry and warm the whole time which as good as it may sound, simply isn't true. Thank heavens we have such variation in summers. I would however say that 2007 and 2008 I never want to see repeated, there was too much rain! For once it would be nice if my Brasilian cousins could come over in July and not complain of it being cold when the temperature is between 17-20C.

[Scorcher]

Thing is - Europe has plenty of warm nights too so it's not just us. I went to Germany, Poland & Ukraine last year where it stayed warm every night for the two weeks I was travelling. When I say warm I do mean warm - t-shirt weather at night even when sat down kind of thing. But I had no trouble with sweaty nights or sleeplessness at all. True warm nights don't generally bother me anyway but back in the UK warm sultry nights are indeed much more difficult to deal with for some.

I think the difference is humidity. To get warm nights here it has to be humid which makes it uncomfortable. In mainland Europe the large land mass keeps things both warm & dry - the best of both worlds.

Low humidity here generally means much cooler nights although maybe with warm/hot days.

Having spent two weeks in Europe I loved that kind of summer climate- almost always warm day & night so a proper outdoor culture - but definitely not sweaty duvet kicking conditions. Our nights are generally cooler but with occasional warm sweaty nights.

Yes that's an interesting point, I always find that the night time temperatures in Continental Europe are higher in summer than in the UK. I spent a week near Lille in northern France during the 2006 heatwave and the nights were definitely warmer there than they had been in Manchester the previous week (the week when the July record was broken). I think the night time temperatures are generally warmer the further south and east you go in England during hot spells. Even during the 2006 heatwave, in Manchester we were still getting down to 18C or cooler at night.

There have been very few nights that I can remember in this area where the temperature has stayed above 19C. During the 2006 hot spell, despite the temperature getting up to 30C+ in these parts during the day, it dropped rather quickly after sunset and tended to be around 21C at midnight. I think low humidity was to blame during that particular spell, which also meant that later on in the evening it didn't feel that warm and a lot of people weren't comfortable sitting out in t shirts.

I don't know why British people moan about warm nights in this country, because I really don't find them that warm at all! I personally would love the temperature to stay above 22C all night during summer. The problem we have is that our houses are built to keep the heat in, so the main reason houses are so hot at night is because of the heat that has built up during the day and can't get out due to our homes being poorly ventilated.

With continuing low solar activity, a negative PDO, I wouldn't rush out to stock up on sun screen just yet!!

That low solar activity doesn't seem to have given Australia a cool summer. Victoria has had one of its warmest on record- how do you explain that?

[Thundery wintry showers]

In Britain I tend to struggle if the temperature gets much above 25C, and usually feel uncomfortable if it goes above 30C. In my French holidays, however, I've regularly noticed myself feeling quite comfortable in temperatures of 30-32C.

The biggest determining factors are probably humidity, urban heat islands and air quality. I'm not sure why heatwaves are often accompanied by high humidity around Britain, but the Atlantic probably has a lot to do with it (esp. those hot muggy SW'ly Bartlett setups). Air quality is also a major determining factor, though I'm not sure if air quality is actually much lower in the urban areas of the UK than in the rural parts of the near-Continent, as it tends to be less windy and cloudy over there.

Urban heat islands are also a big factor, though having said that, I don't recall finding July 2006 uncomfortably hot near Leeds city centre, except briefly around mid-afternoon on the hottest days- in fact I found the heatwave at the end of July 2008 significantly more uncomfortable than any of the June/July 2006 heatwaves. That comparison strongly suggests to me that humidity is the biggest factor.