Atlantic Invest Thread 2009

[Cookie]

welcome to the end of season party

94L

93L

[Cookie]

93 AND 94L

both got deactivated

[Cookie]

95L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF

EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM

REMAINS MINIMAL...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE

SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE

IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Cookie]

95L a gonna

[Rob]

yup invest 95 as of late last night has offically diminished, is there any hope for late season development now? Even the promising invests as not surviving

[londonsnow]

i think we can say, albit cautiously, that the atlantic season is over. largely a disinteresting season.

[Cookie]

still a month to go mate.

hey look at me clutching at straws!

Edited November 1, 2009 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 96L has formed east of Bermuda. A non-tropical low has been shwoing signs of subtropical charateristics today, with some deep convection flaring near the centre of the low. If this trend continues, 96L may well be classified as a subtropical storm soon, with the potential to perhaps become fully tropical before curving northeastwards out to sea. If the storm gets classified then the track will probably become comparible to Tropical Storm Laura from 2008.

[Somerset Squall]

NHC code red for 96L (Greater than 50% risk of suptropical/tropical cyclone development in the next 48hrs):

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR

THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF

BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...

IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY

OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10

MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS

SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH

SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Winds at 50kts, so definitely will receive a name if classified.

[Cookie]

second system to affect the uk this season?

[Rob]

i was just looking at this, very interesting to watch, this will be the third system by the way cookie .

I didn't believe this would develop but its looking very likely now

[Cookie]

sorry 3rd

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has all but gone from 96L now. Development now appears unlikely.

[Rob]

looks like 96 is a good as gone, but something to watch in the SW Carribbean Sea is a band of showers and thunderstorms that could become organised pretty easily. Although strong wind shear and the intensity of dry air will soon put a stop to it i believe.

Edited November 2, 2009 by Rob

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Rob, this one has been tagged 97L and the NHC give it a medium chance (30-50%) of it becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs. An area of low pressure has formed in association with the thunderstorms, though the thunderstorms are not wrapping around the LLC as yet. As long as the disturbance stays away from land, conditions are favourable for 97L to organise into a tropical depression.

[Cookie]

recon are going to have a loot at it on wensday

[Cookie]

tropical cyclone alert issued for 97L

UNCLAS//N03146//

WTNT21 KNGU 032000Z

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 032000Z NOV 09//

RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM

EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 81.2W TO 12.5N 83.6W WITHIN THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A

NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

2. REMARKS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 81.0W WITH ESTIMATED

WINDS OF 20 KNOTS AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10

KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS

SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED DUE TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT,

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERY MINIMAL WIND SHEAR.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, CANCELLED, OR EXPIRE BY 042000Z NOV

2009.//

[Cookie]

96L deactivated

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reactivated

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[Cookie]

97L

[Rob]

an unofficial Invest has popped up just NE of the leeward islands, a strong band of thunderstorms along with a trough of low pressure, tropical development is possible but will be very slow if the case. Low chance of development if at all, might turn into a depression at max if it does develop.

[Cookie]

98L

[Rob]

98L now at 35mph, if it becomes more organised this could be a named storm before weakening up the east coast?

[Cookie]

98L Gone

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[Somerset Squall]

The low that is the remains of Ida, invest 98L and an extratropical low combined needs to be watched IMO off the eastern seaboard. The low is extratropical, and has brought rain and storm surge to the east coast, but now it is moving southwards over warmer waters. This may allow the low to become subtropical if it moves far enough south. Just a low risk, but I though I would flag it up.

If it did re-develop, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be renamed Ida but rather the next name on the list.

[Cookie]

thus why im hanging back on doing the end of season atlantic threads just yet.