Chase 2009 Day 3 Discussion Tx Panhandle

[NL]

Severe thunderstorm watch issued.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0746 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NM AND TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205...

VALID 290046Z - 290245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205

CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW. VIS AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE

ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO

DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE...EVEN AS EARLIEST TSTMS

MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKEN. AS OF 00Z...DRYLINE WAS

ANALYZED NEAR THE LINE LVS...20 E CQC...SRR...GDP...10 E

MRF...LITTLE MOVEMENT EXPECTED DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

SFC-BASED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST

02Z...WITH DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SUPPORTING

NARROW/MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE

MAINLY OVER AND W OF PECOS RIVER. ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING --

LIKELY COINCIDING WITH ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY --

DEMARCATES ERN EDGE OF MOST BUOYANT AIR FROM CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL

COUNTY SWD TO NEAR A ROW...CNM...PEQ LINE. THIS QUASISTATIONARY

BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY FOCUS POTENTIAL FOR TIGHT LOW LEVEL

MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES WITH ANY STORMS CROSSING IT. WITH

TIME...PRIMARY SVR THREAT IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS WW

AREA...EITHER AS NOCTURNAL CONTINUATION OF ONGOING/DIURNALLY-DRIVEN

ACTIVITY OR WITHIN WRN LIMB OF INITIALLY SEPARATE WAA/LLJ REGIME

DESCRIBED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 621.

[Sno' problem]

LOL

Got suckered by the Roswell Storm and promply died when we got here, now gonna head back East towards the Hotel and paralell the Carlsbad Supercell, If it moves North East can take an Option to take a look when we near Brownfield.

Paul S

Thanks for that, but wondering why they are heading to Brownsville? Aren't they staying in Hobbs? (which is closer to the supercell, which actualy seems to be heading slowly SE)

Edited April 29, 2009 by Sno' problem

[NL]

Probably last of the visible sat images as darkness falls

Not sure if the Carlsbad cell will get to a viewing position as it

hasnt moved far in the last hour..!!

Hour later.............

[anvilhead]

nice hook on that storm to the SW right now ... can you guys see any lightning from where you are ?

[John Hanrahan]

SP

We are staying at Brownfield and not Hobbs, but now have a Developing Storm going up above our heads and watching the Squall Line to our West in case it comes over us later.

Frustrating Chase today as per Nick and Tony's thoughts and extensive Cloud Cover really scuppered our chances, oh well always another day tomorrow!

John

[Nick F]

Real shame guys, the models seem to have dealt poorly with the extensive subsidence and resultant cloud cover in the moist air across the TX Panhandle and also with the cloud cover caused by the MCS the day before - so the SPC's risk areas have been jumping around alot and downgrading. Hopefully better luck today, with the day 1 outlook coming out any minute.

According to the radar a cell just to the north of Brownfield, and something more vigorous further NW: