2009, The Year Of Drought?

[mushymanrob]

as this brisk dry easterly continues to feed over us, and with the predicted rainy breakdown now being downgraded in intensity, are the signes in place for a drought this summer? ok its too early to say, but the grass i was cutting this morning was more like 'august grass', dry, little growth, drought stressed under trees/by pavements. here in derby its been dry for some time now, with any rain soon disappearing, now i realise that areas in the north and west have been wetter, but isnt the east dry?

tbh im getting a little concerned, (as my livelyhood depends on grass growth!), IF the meto lrf for summer becomes apparent, and we do have alot of dry sunny weather, summer 09 could become one noted for drought, water restrictions, standpipes! spring has been rather dry, unless the pattern for dryness breaks soon (and lets face it... it could break tomorrow! a summer like 07 could start at a pinch) then this coming summer just might be noted for drought.

are we due for a dry summer?.... well yes imho, thats though not to say we will get one! its been 14 years now since i last lost significant income due to drought (03 was dry, but in late summer/autumn, abit too late).

interesting times ahead!

[reef]

It takes quite a long chain of dry months to induce drought conditions in this country. The last time around here was in the mid-90s. What you have to remember is that we've just come off the back of two very wet years indeed, so although the ground seems pretty dry, the water table will still be rather high.

Lets not forget 2007 aswell. Spring that year was rather dry aside from parts of May and many places had very little rain in the first half of June. Remember what happened after that? Despite what seemed a rather dry period, areas readily flooded when we recieved heavy rain later on.

If this was coming on the back of a 2 year drier period like the south-east experienced in 2004-06 I might agree, but in reality its been rather wet. People have quite short memories.

[Snowyowl9]

No sign of a drought as far as I can see here even though a couple of people I spoke to want rain,which surprised me.

I`m in no hurry for rain,as it`ll come.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.gif

[MR EXTREMES]

as this brisk dry easterly continues to feed over us, and with the predicted rainy breakdown now being downgraded in intensity, are the signes in place for a drought this summer? ok its too early to say, but the grass i was cutting this morning was more like 'august grass', dry, little growth, drought stressed under trees/by pavements. here in derby its been dry for some time now, with any rain soon disappearing, now i realise that areas in the north and west have been wetter, but isnt the east dry?

tbh im getting a little concerned, (as my livelyhood depends on grass growth!), IF the meto lrf for summer becomes apparent, and we do have alot of dry sunny weather, summer 09 could become one noted for drought, water restrictions, standpipes! spring has been rather dry, unless the pattern for dryness breaks soon (and lets face it... it could break tomorrow! a summer like 07 could start at a pinch) then this coming summer just might be noted for drought.

are we due for a dry summer?.... well yes imho, thats though not to say we will get one! its been 14 years now since i last lost significant income due to drought (03 was dry, but in late summer/autumn, abit too late).

interesting times ahead!

its funny you talk about drought and also mention that its been many years since our last one considering where in a gw period lol so they say.

but of coarse drought can hit anytime like you said,

but im fairly adimant that there be no drought although there seems to be a lack of rain for sometime couple this with a unusal cold winter but a rather wet last summer,

it would seem the last couple of years or so are seeing change im also in the opion this summer wont be as hot and dry as alot are suggesting,

but where have to see if im right droughts seem more common in long periods of high pressure and with the azores high pressure being pushed about a fair bit in the last couple of years add in the inconsistant jet stream flow,

id say drought periods now seem more likely in winter rather than summer but its still early days and it will be intresting to see what happens in all season in the next couple of years.

could just be a 10year cycle could be a longer cycle.

thats my opion guys and could be way of the mark with my thoughts but hey i take that risk lol :o

It takes quite a long chain of dry months to induce drought conditions in this country. The last time around here was in the mid-90s. What you have to remember is that we've just come off the back of two very wet years indeed, so although the ground seems pretty dry, the water table will still be rather high.

Lets not forget 2007 aswell. Spring that year was rather dry aside from parts of May and many places had very little rain in the first half of June. Remember what happened after that? Despite what seemed a rather dry period, areas readily flooded when we recieved heavy rain later on.

If this was coming on the back of a 2 year drier period like the south-east experienced in 2004-06 I might agree, but in reality its been rather wet. People have quite short memories.

intresting you said about the wet summers we have had,

also add the effect of cloud cover maybe a little far fetched but it would seem its been pretty cloudy for sometime so evopration little less than it would be if a long dry hot spell where to take hold.

all this said who knows whats going to happen,

i just feel following the recent years trends might start to tell a story of its own,

well have to wait either way im happy weather is weather it all intresting to me. :lol:

[mushymanrob]

It takes quite a long chain of dry months to induce drought conditions in this country. The last time around here was in the mid-90s. What you have to remember is that we've just come off the back of two very wet years indeed, so although the ground seems pretty dry, the water table will still be rather high.

Lets not forget 2007 aswell. Spring that year was rather dry aside from parts of May and many places had very little rain in the first half of June. Remember what happened after that? Despite what seemed a rather dry period, areas readily flooded when we recieved heavy rain later on.

If this was coming on the back of a 2 year drier period like the south-east experienced in 2004-06 I might agree, but in reality its been rather wet. People have quite short memories.

tbh i dont think it would take that long for restrictions to be introduced, maybe not to the 76 extent, but as you say that was after a long run of dry months. however, demand is higher now with our ever expanding population.

oh im fully aware that the tap might get turned on tomorrow ala 07 and wet conditions may ensue all summer... but im just posing the question 'what if '?

[Snowaddict]

At present I think there is certainly some credence to this idea Mushy, particularly with reference to the Southeast UK.

Whilst I know that anything past T+120 is subject to significant change - with the latest ECMWF operational output in mind - where do we find to be the most settled region into FI? - The southeast of the UK.

This is clearly hinted at once again in the latest medium term UKMO update.

Perhaps if there were consecutive thundery outbreaks then it may alleviate the situation, however this is not showing at present.

Furthermore, without doubt these potential drought conditions are a direct by-product of the marked increase in anticyclonicity over the past 6 - 9 months or so. Before this, we had one area of low pressure after another steamrolling across the British Isles.

At present, that pattern has come to a hault.

So if there was to be a further persistence of high pressure then yes I think that water shortages at least could become an issue into the summer, but that's a while away yet.

Does anybody have any of the water levels in terms of % from reservoirs in the southeast UK?

Regards,

SA B)

[chionomaniac]

At present I think there is certainly some credence to this idea Mushy, particularly with reference to the Southeast UK.

[b]Does anybody have any of the water levels in terms of % from reservoirs in the southeast UK?

SA B)

Hi SA

I know that the 2 local reservoirs here in Sussex are full

http://www.southeastwater.co.uk/environmen...lsarlington.asp

http://www.southeastwater.co.uk/environmen...elsardingly.asp

c

[Snowaddict]

Hi SA

I know that the 2 local reservoirs here in Sussex are full

http://www.southeastwater.co.uk/environmen...lsarlington.asp

http://www.southeastwater.co.uk/environmen...elsardingly.asp

c

That's great to hear C

Thank you very much for posting up the info.

Regards,

SA B)

[The PIT]

I said drought in 2007 and look what happened. What happens now doesn't bare any relation of what may happen to the coming months.

[Marcus_surfer]

I can understand why you may get concerned if you have a business in growing and selling plants/vegtables but You cant be seriously "concerned" about drought in the country, we get more rain than you can shake a bloody stick at, I just don't understand people when they get concerned over drought in this country, yes we have had droughts in previous years, especially in the southeast, but we moan in this country over the smallest things. When it gets too hot, rail tracks start melting and pavements also, some other countries would laugh at us. Other countries have much bigger weather problems than us. This is my opinion.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Water shortages could potentially become more than just a minor issue if the dry spell continues, but I have my doubts as to whether it will. The water companies are better with their storage of water than they were in the infamous droughts of 1976 and 1995.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

An interesting topic. I know it is only May but here everything is starting to look like the end of a hot dry spell. The grass is looking very yellow in places already around town which is quite unusual to say its only 2 weeks since April finished. I really hope we get some rain soon before the newly planted trees start dying.

[Bottesford]

I remember last April (or was it April before - I think it was) where it got very dusty & dry with many of us wondering when it'd rain again. As we all know - it definitely did!

[john w]

April 06 was the time people were very worried about drought.

Groundwater levels are key though, EA produce water situation reports have a google of it.

[mushymanrob]

I said drought in 2007 and look what happened. What happens now doesn't bare any relation of what may happen to the coming months.

........ assuming the pattern changes, and the inevitable rain does come.

[Methuselah]

I think that the term 'drought' has more than one meaning:

To most of us, a drought only happens once our carwashing activity is curtailed; but, to the agriculturally-/horticulturally-minded, it tends to happen somewhat earlier - i.e. when the groung becomes overly dry and cracked and the grass stops growing?

I think!

[Terminal Moraine]

Meteorologically speaking an 'absolute drought' is a period of at least 15 days, none of which records more than 0.1mm of rainfall and a 'dry spell' is a period of at least 15 days none of which records more than 0.9 mm of rain.

There is also a partial or agricultural drought which is a period of at least 29 days over which the average rainfall per day does not exceed 0.2mm.

At this site, although there have been no official drought periods, it's been the driest first 4 months of any year since 1976.

[Weather-history]

When I see a chart like this, drought does not spring to mind

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.gif

Could we end up with another wet May overall? The second half of May 2008 in the south was dull and wet.

Summer 1976 was famous for its drought but this was aided and abetted by the fact that previous few months were not especially wet overall.

It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if the summers of 1995 and 1996 were interchanged. The winter preceding summer 1995 was a very wet one, so although hosepipe bans etc kicked in if the heat of summer 1995 had occurred during the following summer instead, well it would have been very very interesting. I think the "drought" conditions would have been even more serious.

[Kentish Man]

Yes it looks as if our lengthy dry period is about to switch to a very unsettled spell ie from one extreme to the other as has seemed to be so often the case in recent years. As Mr Data says May could still end up very wet overall given the sort of synoptics shown over the next week or so.

[Mondy]

A drought as in water shortage? In the UK? With the Atlantic Ocean one side of us and the North Sea the other? Gimme a break! As for grass, it's positively striking green up here, lush looking. Just perfect.

[shuggee]

Indeed Mondy - having spent 4 whole days on holiday last week in varying degrees of torential rain, the geographic area to which the title of the thread refers needs a wee bit of clarification!

[William of Walworth]

Yes it looks as if our lengthy dry period is about to switch to a very unsettled spell ie from one extreme to the other as has seemed to be so often the case in recent years. As Mr Data says May could still end up very wet overall given the sort of synoptics shown over the next week or so.

In the Model Output Discussion thread though, there's a 50/50 debate going on right now about whether a dry and warm looking Continental High might build over us -- later next week. Some (but not all) of the latest models indicate this is at least a possibility in the FI zone.

No dispute that rain and perhaps plenty of it is imminent for many areas in the next few days ... but we should keep a close eye on what may happen next week.

Perhaps, just perhaps, the unsettled spell coming up may end up being quite shortlived .....

[mushymanrob]

A drought as in water shortage? In the UK? With the Atlantic Ocean one side of us and the North Sea the other? Gimme a break! As for grass, it's positively striking green up here, lush looking. Just perfect.

ahh...the innocence of youth, i gather you werent around in 1976 then! :o , standpipes, bricks in the toilet systern, washing/bathing water to water your garden, the green godesses...

im not expecting another 76... but maybe a 95? anyway after watching the forecast for the weekend this thread looks like it will soon be redundant as alot of rain for southern uk is expected.

[GRHinPorts]

I find this topic very interesting indeed (well done Mushymanrob for getting it started) because I have gradually come to the view that in this country we definitely seem to have prolonged periods of wet weather and then prolonged periods of dry weather. These periods seem to last 18 months - 2 years.

For example between November 2004 and November 2006 we had predominantly dry weather. Not every month was below averaged in that period but the majority were.

This was followed by the period December 2006 to November 2008 which I don't think people need much memory jogging to realise was a very wet period. I really must challenge the notion that 2007 began very dry. Yes, it barely rained a drop in April but every other month in that year up to August was surely above average for rainfall...January, May and July exceptionally so.

Since November of last year we have seen a proloned run of dry weather months which convinces me we are now in a period of dryer weather. Whilst its quite possible we'll see exceptional mini-periods within this (the reverse of April 2007 if you like) I would not be at all surprised to see the dry weather continue into, through and beyond the summer.

Looking back through the years I think my theory tallies with other periods of time. I well remember the torrential rainfall that seemed to be never ending through November 1999 to April 2001.

Looking back further both 1995 and 1996 seemed predominantly dry years and indeed do 1975 and 1976.

Of couse drought in this country does not in any way mean a record breaking summer. We could end up with many days of boring rainless cloud and temperaturs maxing out at 19 this summer and still have the water companies fretting about how they will maintain our supplies.

[Terminal Moraine]

I see the met office now have a weather watch for heavy thundery rain on Friday for most of the Midlands, southern England and Wales. Largest rainfall totals are expected to be across the Midlands and east Wales.

As soon as someone mentions drought!!