Storm Chase 2010 - Heads Up..

[Tom Lynch]

cool video thanks for shearing.

I was reading somewhere their wasn't a single tornado for the entire month of February in the USA

Following tornado report from the Storm Prediction Centre

..2010..

JAN 41 -

FEB 0 -

Hope this confirms what you have read.

Tom

Edited February 28, 2010 by Tom Lynch

[kold weather]

Yep a very rare month, mind you hardly surprising given just how severely cold the whole of the US has been, so thats not something to really worry about just yet, hopefully March will give a couple of virtual chases to get some experience back in again, personally speaking of course! <BR><BR>I'm expecting a fairly active spell to develop late March/Early April time, the El Nino should still be just about strong enough to give a fairly active southern jet and that should help to give plenty of wind shear with any luck. Indeed it wouldn't shock me to see a fairly active early season in general as the AO eases off and the El Nino starts to weaken.

Edited March 1, 2010 by kold weather

[Cookie]

Following tornado report from the Storm Prediction Centre

..2010..

JAN 41 -

FEB 0 -

Hope this confirms what you have read.

Tom

thanks

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showpost.php?p=260957&postcount=48

Looks like an Interesting Season coming up and it should start to get us all saliving over the next 4-6 weeks.

Bring It On

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/

Some of the guys on the Meet Up were asking wether similar Februaries had occured with hardly any Tornado Reports and only 3 come up.

Feb 1964 had 1 Tornado

Feb 1982 had 1 Tornado

Feb 2002 had 2 Tornadoes

Now if you click the link above Select "Basic" and then take a peek at May 1982 - That was a very Southern Plains May with 329 Tornadoes and most of them in the Panhandles indicating Dryline Set Ups in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle, also a few F3's in Central Oklahoma that year.

Both 1964 and 2002 had plenty on Tornadoes also with a Notable F5 In both years.

I still stand by what I said on the Meet Up that the Southern Plains will be more Favoured with Oklahoma taking the brunt of the action this year, but once the STJ Weakens then the shift to the Northern Plains during the 2nd half of May will be Rapid!

Paul S

[Harry]

Sorry if this detail has been mentioned previously, however -

I'm about the book my insurance with GoWalkabout - which policy have others gone for? First Class, Economy 500, Backpacker??

The First Class is approx £90, which is higher than the approx £70 mentioned before.

Cheers in advance

H

[Gorky]

I pretty much agree with your thoughts Paul, although based mainly on this being more common in the El-Nino transitioning to neutral seasons which we are predicted. (2007 is a good example of that). The lack of tornadoes so far doesn't worry me in the slightest. It's been a cold winter and that's to be expected. That will possibly result in issues with the gulf being cooler into the beginning part of the season. Dew Points will be lower which could confine the action to the lower plains (See 2007 again!). Even with low SSTS's in the gulf, moisture would be adequate in the South come April/May for severe storms. If the STJ stays as low as it currently is, that's just going to shift the threat to Texas and OK. The problems with lack of tornadoes into May are almost always associated with Death Ridge scenarios and there's no way to really predict that this far out so not much point in worrying. Looking at the system next week, that is going to try it's best to advect warmer dews northwards, but looks like it's going to struggle at the moment to reach the critical threshhold for a nice outbreak. I'm sure Sunday and Monday's setup at this month in the last few years would have resulted in an impressive outbreak. Might still take until Early April for things to really get cranking in my opinion

[kold weather]

Yeah it will take a little while to get going, but I'm still quite confident of a big outbreak towards late March and early April because any warm intrusion into the Gulf States (esp Texas which IMO will take the brunt till the core of the season kicks in during May) with the STJ the way it is (and IMO it will lift northwards as the -ve AO phase will decline alot by then IMO, even reversing) your just asking for a big outbreak.

As for the rest of the season, I'm willing to bet we will still have a El Nino by May, though the pattern will be declining in that respect, so I see no reason why we won't be getting a pretty active season IMO...of course the problem is you do only need one very poorly timed 'death' ridge and that reduces any seasons potency in the meat of the season.

[nsrobins]

Good luck with the prep and tours chaps. I have a skytronic 300W 12v-240V upverter I'm happy to lend if anyone wants it. With a four gang british socket extension it easily powered two laptops and charged mobiles, etc.

Drop me an email and I'll post it to you [email protected]

Edited March 2, 2010 by nsrobins

[gpspete]

3 month forecast here http://www.cpc.noaa....onal.php?lead=2

[Paul Sherman]

3 month forecast here http://www.cpc.noaa....onal.php?lead=2

Nice Forecast there Pete and backs up the Dryline Theory in the Panhandles.

The Landing day for Tour 1 Guests is the anniversary day of the Andover/Witchita F5 And found some new footage never seen before of this F5 From 27th April 1991

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84eHnxRyEV4

Paul S

[gpspete]

Nice Forecast there Pete and backs up the Dryline Theory in the Panhandles.

The Landing day for Tour 1 Guests is the anniversary day of the Andover/Witchita F5 And found some new footage never seen before of this F5 From 27th April 1991

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=84eHnxRyEV4

Paul S

read this morning on stormtrack (i think may be elsewere trying to find it again) that EL NINO is picking up again in the last few days and that it may be favourable for severe storms although there was concern that it would lead to storm fronts with lots of cells embeded causing plenty of tornados but they would be rain wrapped and fast moving so difficult to spot,

but who knows these are only others opinions

Edited March 3, 2010 by gpspete

[Paul Sherman]

This would match the 2007 Season (Which was the year of No Cap) Now this can be good and bad, If there is NO Cap then Stronger Supercells cannot form due to an abundance of Storms all competing with each other, Storm Structure tends to be messy with Squall Lines the mode. A good (Loaded Gun) scenario with Strong Cap would be favoured by me as it can lead to some powerful Tornadoes. I a sure people remember Sat May 5th 2007 which was a High Risk and due to lack of Cap he Storms fired at 11am, granted there were still 108 Tornadoes that day but most of them were from messy Squall type storms that were moving at 50mph One good thing I suppose is that this type of Season usually sees back to back days of chasing and poor old Aine was cream crackered by 7th May in 2007 after chasing for 7 days solid.

We shall see in the next 5-6 weeks how this season pans out but I have a hunch that the 2nd half of March is going to give some great early season Tornadoes.

Paul S

Sounds very 2007 Pete I must say - Although that turned out into a pretty good season with a few High Risks and the Greensburg EF5 On May 4th 2007

Paul S

[dogs32]

So what should we expect in the Spring of 2010? While I don't like long-range forecasting I do like to look at trends of past El Nino & La Nina springs. As figured...our worst tornado outbreaks have occurred during these years. With an El Nino in place no doubt there is some concern for that going into the spring. One piece of good news...I don't see it happening early in the season.

While there is a cold front we will need to keep an eye on first of next week for possibly severe thunderstorms, it certainly does not look like a system that will pose a major risk. Behind that system by week's end..looks like winter will make yet another return as we turn cold again...& in fact with the current storm track a late March snowfall is not totally out of the question. This cold snap will put us deep into March. In other words, what will likely be a delay to the tornado season.

I really think we will moderate in April...at which point, with the current storm track, where I believe the season may take off. Usually after a late-season cold snap in an El Nino Spring we usually get a decent warm-up...possibly even 80s. All it would take would be one strong cold front to bring big problems. With the storms we've seen this winter you have to figure that would come in some shape or form.

Bottom line...don't let the winter weather we've seen lull you to sleep in thinking this will be a quiet spring. It only takes one storm for this to be an active & potentially dangerous spring severe weather season.

another source

[Cookie]

dogs.

its the same with the hurricane season, we could have a very slow season, yet it only takes one hurricane to cause huge amount of damage and loss of life.

[MAF]

cant wait for the chasing to start. at least it will give me something to do when it's quiet in work at a night

[dogs32]

dogs.

its the same with the hurricane season, we could have a very slow season, yet it only takes one hurricane to cause huge amount of damage and loss of life.

i still reckon this year or next will be explosive...

Just a hunch!!

:unsure: ..

but hopfully this year.

not long now

My wish is to see a dirty brown Wedge like Reed Timmer's

Edited March 4, 2010 by dogs32

[Cookie]

i still reckon this year or next will be explosive...

Just a hunch!!

:unsure: ..

but hopfully this year.

not long now

My wish is to see a dirty brown Wedge like Reed Timmer's

just dont drive into the middle of it mate!

[Gorky]

I'm hoping you're talking about the tornado and not the content of your pants after getting a little too close :unsure:

(Yes! I went there.....sorry )

[Paul Sherman]

I'm hoping you're talking about the tornado and not the content of your pants after getting a little too close

(Yes! I went there.....sorry )

Yes Nathan I was going to say if Pat wants to see a Dirty Brown Wedge of Mr Timmer then we could always follow the Red Shoe into the same Gas Station as them and wait for him to eat a nasty burricho........tone lowered even further!

[dogs32]

Yes Nathan I was going to say if Pat wants to see a Dirty Brown Wedge of Mr Timmer then we could always follow the Red Shoe into the same Gas Station as them and wait for him to eat a nasty burricho........tone lowered even further!

Im always putting my foot in it... words that is

If not a wedge a beautiful Stove pipe will be nice..

[Gorky]

Just don't go showing us your 'elephant trunk'...

[MAF]

Im always putting my foot in it... words that is

If not a wedge a beautiful Stove pipe will be nice..

mate i would give up now :lol:

[nsrobins]

Good luck with the prep and tours chaps. I have a skytronic 300W 12v-240V upverter I'm happy to lend if anyone wants it. With a four gang british socket extension it easily powered two laptops and charged mobiles, etc.

Drop me an email and I'll post it to you [email protected]

Forgot to say - in addition I have a handy 110V to 230V british socket upverter to use the motel room juice in the evenings if anyone wants to borrow.

[Devon-Nelly]

Im starting to get giddy about the trip now as its my first ever storm chase and been wanting to do it since i watched twister as a kid (would love to work out there studing them) and its going to be amazing!!

Hopefully there will be some big beefy storms about, just can't wait to see the full force of a supercell storm raging across the plains with a tornado in tow .

Is there any correlation between El Nino and La Nina years in regards to how many tornadoes there are? I would think the cold snowy winter they have had will aid some big storms if everything falls into place.