Cold Phase Amo

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Back to the point in question regarding the AMO.

Firstly, if the AMO were to follow a cyclical pattern then previous patterns would suggest that the AMO would not be likely to go negative until 2020, so if this is not a blip, then we are seeing the AMO turning negative ten years early?

Hi C

I have looked into it and the patterns and it is expected between 6-10 years for full negative phase to be in place. This may be a blip currently but signals where we are headed, I think 1951 is a pttern match Joe B is going for.

Iceberg thanks for the link that was most helpful.

regards

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Excuse me guys - but is this the same Joe B that has been forecasting cold winters for as long as I can remember? Of course we'll get cold weather eventually; but does it take a genius to tell us that?

[chionomaniac]

Hi C

I have looked into it and the patterns and it is expected between 6-10 years for full negative phase to be in place. This may be a blip currently but signals where we are headed, I think 1951 is a pttern match Joe B is going for.

Iceberg thanks for the link that was most helpful.

regards

BFTP

Yes, looking at previous years there are short positive episodes in negative periods and vice versa. No doubt the current negative anomaly will become strongly positive again just in time for winter, encouraging cyclogenesis! Aaagh.

c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Excuse me guys - but is this the same Joe B that has been forecasting cold winters for as long as I can remember? Of course we'll get cold weather eventually; but does it take a genius to tell us that?

Just a pattern match with regards to anomaly.....not a forecast!!!!! However, he's gonna get summer right, I think he's on the money for W Europe this year

C, of course we will have the dreaded C word and warm phase AMO come winter....that's a given!!

BFTP

[MR EXTREMES]

Excuse me guys - but is this the same Joe B that has been forecasting cold winters for as long as I can remember? Of course we'll get cold weather eventually; but does it take a genius to tell us that?

i admire joe b i think hes brillant,

wether he forecast right or wrong he has alot of experience and never ashamed to admit when he was wrong as is the case with all forecasters.

and its good he speaks out about topics and does not hold back my way of think is id rather listen to someone like him that some pumped up political youngster whos been on the planet for 20years and knows nothing.

but in regards to cold winter well who knows no one does. :o

[tundra]

i admire joe b i think hes brillant,

wether he forecast right or wrong he has alot of experience and never ashamed to admit when he was wrong as is the case with all forecasters.

and its good he speaks out about topics and does not hold back my way of think is id rather listen to someone like him that some pumped up political youngster whos been on the planet for 20years and knows nothing.

but in regards to cold winter well who knows no one does.

You will very rarely here Joe B or any other forcaster for that matter admit that they are wrong even if they forcast a lovely sunny day yet it turned out cloudy and wet.

[johnholmes]

a bit unfair that T; most Met forecasters on TV do make comment on it, I certainly do if I make a b==== up of a forecast

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Found a good update / link

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/14/the-...-yet/#more-9338

Now some interesting points in this. I am looking into why moderate to strong El Nino didn't alweays mean a cold winter in the 20th century but from late 70s onwards it did. This could be a reason why....the state of the AMO.

Also what is interesting is the current solar minima and potential projected deep minima....one to monitor

BFTP

[Typhoon John]

You have to wonder if a deep solar min in general reduces SST so that a slightly positive AMO becomes neutral and a neutral AMO becomes negative etc. And the same for the PDO and strength of el nino/la ninas. It's not disrupting the cycle as such it's just moving the goal posts slightly lower. I suspect it maybe be what kills off this el nino and reduces its affect on the atmosphere.

All just speculation of course!

[Solar Cycles]

Found a good update / link

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/14/the-...-yet/#more-9338

Now some interesting points in this. I am looking into why moderate to strong El Nino didn't alweays mean a cold winter in the 20th century but from late 70s onwards it did. This could be a reason why....the state of the AMO.

Also what is interesting is the current solar minima and potential projected deep minima....one to monitor

BFTP

An interesting read Fred, note the 20-30 year cycle. Do you think that ties in with the warming we have experinced? Seems to me it does, no doubt the warmists will dismiss this, as it dos not fit in with their agendas/beliefs!!

Edited July 16, 2009 by Solar Cycles

[Typhoon John]

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seasonal...30DaySOIValues/

Is La Nina set to return?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

An interesting read Fred, note the 20-30 year cycle. Do you think that ties in with the warming we have experinced?

Yes I do. Positive PDO, positive perturbation cycle, positive AMO, 3 of the the highest recorded Solar cycle maxes recorded for over 1000 years during mid/late 20th century......no wonder we warmed.

BFTP