Arctic Ice 2009

[Gray-Wolf]

Human race 0 - Arctic circle 1 (o.g. fossil fuels)......

[Gray-Wolf]

Arctic ice is in a far healthier state than it was this time last year and with a -pdo, cooling Atlantic and deep solar minima it obviously looks like the trend will continue. To argue against such obvious facts is to argue just for the sake of it with no foundations to back any of the meaningless agw rantings.

The Arctic ice is here to stay and the longer the denialists go on with their nonsense the more and more foolish they will look.

Tundra ,April 24th

How do we tell who is who tundra? As predicted (from the data available) the folk who listened to the relevant bodies (and take into account the ice thickness) seem to have a better grasp on the way the ice now endures over (yet another average) summer.

The ice extent over winter is not a sound predictor of the summer melt.

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Well i for one am looking forward to seeing a continued improvement in summer ice retention in the Arctic to follow on from what is a very encouraging spring so far.

I must admit to being bemused at the doom and gloom scenarios being posted when the present conditions are very encouraging especially if the AO continues +. I think a little bit of reality would not go amiss from some quarters.

Tundra April 28th 09'

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And if the above "statement of fact" turns out to be false will you have the humility to come on to this thread and apologise?

I'm not saying you will be wrong but your certainty in that statement has actually gone beyond the line into the realms of arrogance.

Doctormog May 17th 09'

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This could be a good thread if it wasn't continually interrupted by the drivel you keep coming out with.

Tundra may 20th 09'

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There is nothing really to report here unless your into guess work and speculation. Wind circulation and weather patterns will decide the fate of the Arctic ice this summer as it does every summer and not wishful thinking

Tundra 1st June 09'

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The dramatic thinning of the pack over the past 10yrs has left a different Arctic to the one we all grew up knowing. Thin ice melts out each year (check the Antarctic sea ice) and we now have an arctic of predominantly thin ice. Expect the pattern of melt from 07'/08'/09' to become the norm (until the last of the perennial goes) until we are at the point that we are left guessing on which date ALL the ice has melted each year.

Edited July 26, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

I think we can all accept that this year's Arctic ice-minimum, gives genuine cause for concern? Many things are uncertain or unknown, I agree. But the empirical observation of the ice's extent is not merely hypothesis...

[J10]

On the IJIS figures, the rate of ice loss has fallen back to around 80,000sqkm per day over the past week, this rate of ice loss is around average for this time of year, we are the 5th highest of the series, below 2003-2005 and 2008, but above all 2006-2007, having fallen below 2005 over the past week or so.

We are currently still around 65,000sqkm below 2003-08 average, 730,000 above 2007, 215,000 above 2006 (this surplus is likely to drop over coming weeks as 2006 did well from now on), 50,000 below 2005 and just under 100,000 below 2008.

Of course remembering that the 2003-08 average is well below 30 yr averages.

At the start of August, 2007 was well out on its own at the bottom of the range, 2005/6/8 close together in the middle, with 2003-2004 much higher, it will be interesting how 2009 compares to the middle trio when we come into August.

On the IJIS figures, the rate of ice loss has risen to around 120,000sqkm per day over the past week, this rate of ice loss is above average for this time of year, we are the 2nd lowest (6th highest), below all years apart from 2007.

We are currently around 300,000sqkm below 2003-08 average, 535,000 above 2007, 230,000 below 2006, 240,000 below 2005 and just over 290,000 below 2008.

Of course remembering that the 2003-08 average is well below 30 yr averages.

It now appears we will be entering August below the 2008 figure, where this leads to at the end of the summer melt is still not concluded.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we can all accept that this year's Arctic ice-minimum, gives genuine cause for concern? Many things are uncertain or unknown, I agree. But the empirical observation of the ice's extent is not merely hypothesis...

Sorry Pete, You can delete the above if it's in bad taste.

There are those on here who know full well (without speculation) the general pattern for melt over the summer as they accept the gravity of the recent changes in the Arctic. Mr Serreze (NSIDC) coined the phrase 'death spiral' and I can do nothing other than follow his logic on things.

On other threads I've mooted that we need some kind of ecological disaster that only climate shift can explain and I hope the Arctic is the ticket.Maybe then (once folk appreciate the implications to their own life) pressure for action will become so great as to facilitate the level of change needed.

[laserguy]

On other threads I've mooted that we need some kind of ecological disaster that only climate shift can explain and I hope the Arctic is the ticket.Maybe then (once folk appreciate the implications to their own life) pressure for action will become so great as to facilitate the level of change needed.

Nope,you want an ecological disaster to somehow shore up the AGW theory (it won't) and because you're the Doom Master General - it's in your blood! Personally,I'm waiting for Betelgeuse or Antares to go supernova and take us all out in a massive GRB. Hey,whatever floats your boat... As all us devout deniers are well aware,the Arctic and the atmosphere has done,is doing and always will do whatever it's 'supposed' to do - with or without us being here. We've just got to live with it...or not.

[Gray-Wolf]

Nope,you want an ecological disaster to somehow shore up the AGW theory (it won't) and because you're the Doom Master General - it's in your blood! Personally,I'm waiting for Betelgeuse or Antares to go supernova and take us all out in a massive GRB. Hey,whatever floats your boat... As all us devout deniers are well aware,the Arctic and the atmosphere has done,is doing and always will do whatever it's 'supposed' to do - with or without us being here. We've just got to live with it...or not.

I'd prefer climate change/shift to be nothing more than a big pile of smelly pooh and the sooner I can get my head 'round how to see things that way the better.

As it is Arctic ice is melting out much as predicted and ,should the rate stay close to last weeks, it'll overtake 07's min. by mid Aug.

And it rained all day again!!!!

Bah, Humbug!!!

[Rainy]

Gray-Wolf. Just wanted to say thanks for posting a reply to my query yesterday. I've not had a free moment to read it till now.

This is one of the most interesting threads on NW. Covers such an important subject. I feel we are walking blindfold to we know not where. The ramifications of an increasingly ice free Arctic are mind blowing. The media dwell on the economic and political consequences of open shipping lanes and the easy access to mineral resources and also the sea level rises. But is anyone seriously researching the disturbance to sensitive weather systems. Chaos indeed.

We have measured rain daily here on the same unchanged site for the Met Office since 1968. It appears the weather has become wetter. And being in farming we know that only too well. Working in these wet hills is becoming very difficult.

It may only be a blip. There was a wet spell in the early 1980s. But 8 calendar months have their record highest totals in just the years since 2000.

Oct 2000

Nov2000

Feb 2002

Aug 2004

May 2006

June 2007

July 2007

Jan 2008

And the record wet year, 2000.

I reckon if you pour extra amounts of cold melt water into the oceans then something must be progressivley affected. But does anyone care enough to at least research it?

[Gray-Wolf]

We're pretty much downwind from you on a normal L.P. track and over the past 10yrs or so either I,m getting more Eric (Olthwaite) or the summer precipitation is becoming more condensed! I don't know the breakdown but I'd bet we have more 25mm events (over a 24hr period) than used to be the norm. Esp. true of the past 4 years.

Edited July 26, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Iceberg]

A quick update:

2009 is currently standing as "comfortably" the second lowest on record for todays date.

We currently have:

280000 less than 2008

555000 more than 2007 (so still well up on 2007).

225000 less than 2006

and 250000 less than 2005.

This is only slightly bias this time but the word comfortable was taken in that it would take realistically at least a week or two of low melt to go back to 2006.

[Methuselah]

A quick update:

2009 is currently standing as "comfortably" the second lowest on record for todays date.

We currently have:

280000 less than 2008

555000 more than 2007 (so still well up on 2007).

225000 less than 2006

and 250000 less than 2005.

This is only slightly bias this time but the word comfortable was taken in that it would take realistically at least a week or two of low melt to go back to 2006.

Of, come off it, Ice! We all know that ice-melt is measured using an AGW-biased short ruler!

[Iceberg]

A bit more "official view"

This shows the expectations of many of the top arctic scientists.

Most predict a similar level to 2008, with the average just below 2008 making it the second lowest on record (over the last few hundred years).

The July outlook report.

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/report_july.php

On the NW passage.

"Howell and Duguay’s assessment of the role of multiyear ice in hindering complete melt-out of the NWP has not changed. Zhang’s ensemble simulations of the area (see Figure 2) suggest, however, that a navigation channel is likely to open later in the season and July Report indicates slightly higher ice retreat than the June Report."

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/july_report/regional/regional_july.php

[Chris Knight]

We're pretty much downwind from you on a normal L.P. track and over the past 10yrs or so either I,m getting more Eric (Olthwaite) or the summer precipitation is becoming more condensed! I don't know the breakdown but I'd bet we have more 25mm events (over a 24hr period) than used to be the norm. Esp. true of the past 4 years.

Now I understand, GW, how this must affect your outlook - "even the white bits are black" - eh?

Rainy asked a good question earlier. I have a feeling that the cold meltwater which has pooled in central north Atlantic waters for each of the past few years has been associated with unsettled UK summer weather because the Azores high gets stabilised over the cool water to the west of the Azores. The Jetstream rides over the north of this high, and drags our weather in from Newfoundland and Greenland.

[Gray-Wolf]

Now I understand, GW, how this must affect your outlook - "even the white bits are black" - eh?

I've always got my collection of 'Spear and Jackson' to fall back on though .................apart from the one with the problem handle.........

[Chris Knight]

I've always got my collection of 'Spear and Jackson' to fall back on though .................apart from the one with the problem handle.........

And I always thought Yorkshire folk would call a spade a spade. I have a favourite broom myself, had it for years. Even after four new heads and five replacement broomhandles, it's still going strong.

[Gray-Wolf]

I was born in Eric's county and I am just coming into my inheritence over here (well, we did win didn't we?). We're just up the road from the 'disputed zone' of Todmorden so I'm merely pushing the boundry a bit further..........but don't tell above a dozen....they're a bit queer in these parts.......

[stewfox]

A bit more "official view"

This shows the expectations of many of the top arctic scientists.

Most predict a similar level to 2008, with the average just below 2008 making it the second lowest on record (over the last few hundred years).

Just to finish off your official review can you provide a link to who was measuring the ice cover in the 1750s or even accurately in the 1950s.

Ill start with 1979 (the year satellite imagery of the North Pole first became available) .

[Iceberg]

They have what they think it the probably ice extent from 1900 onwards.

I really can't believe that ice levels before this were lower than today, considering it was the time of the little ice age....

Forgot to say that the graph etc going back to 1900 was posted in GW's arctic thread in this forum.

[Gray-Wolf]

Though we don't like to readily give credence to the collective experience of folk around the world the number of peoples around the world who have a folk myth regarding an inundation (when we know that most of the then 'Humanity' would have suffered such?) is compelling(??) The useful information held by the aboriginal folks living in the Arctic circle does not seem to include info regarding past ice retreats on such a scale. Do we dare discount the info that their folk have survived by by utilizing generation upon generation worth of accrued knowledge? how can such a racial memory be so short lived when most of the folk memories of he world seem to reach back to the last great inundation?

[stewfox]

I really can't believe that ice levels before this were lower than today, considering it was the time of the little ice age....

Yes and Im sure 2,000 years ago they was a lot less ice in summer then there is now but that wasnt caused by man.

Isnt this thread about wether 'man' is causing a rapid reduction in summer artic ice, or is it a natural variation.

I dont believe the little ice age as it was called , was caused by man.

I personally dont like this 'lowest ice cover on record' when clearly it isnt.

[Methuselah]

You're in the wrong thread, Stew...

[Chris Knight]

Though we don't like to readily give credence to the collective experience of folk around the world the number of peoples around the world who have a folk myth regarding an inundation (when we know that most of the then 'Humanity' would have suffered such?) is compelling(??) The useful information held by the aboriginal folks living in the Arctic circle does not seem to include info regarding past ice retreats on such a scale. Do we dare discount the info that their folk have survived by by utilizing generation upon generation worth of accrued knowledge? how can such a racial memory be so short lived when most of the folk memories of he world seem to reach back to the last great inundation?

The inundation - would that be the Durham Grand Canyon 2009AD, GW, or maybe the tsunami in the aftermath of the Minoan collapse of the Santorini caldera ca. 1645BC? Maybe the post-glacial flooding during a rapid sea level rise that separated Australia when the Gulf of Carpentaria filled during the Dream Time. All burnt deeply into the local collective memory.

It is thought that Beringians lived on the pack ice and ice shelves of the northern Pacific rim for as much as 15000 years before the end of the glaciation. Indeed, was there a north Atlantic rim, with people travelling between the old and the new world, way back then?

Circumpolar peoples only started to inhabit the northern lands after the ice retreat at the end of the last glaciation perhaps 8-10 thousand years ago. They were nomads, like the animals they hunted, and one patch of ice resembles another, so whether far north or south their oral history does not tell.

Those who travelled too far north had a long, cold dark winter to look forward to, and no solid land beneath their feet if the ice happened to melt. Their oral history would be difficult to find, I think.

Tip of the day: One of the ways to tell if your dried fish is still frozen is how 'snappy' it is!

[Methuselah]

Though we don't like to readily give credence to the collective experience of folk around the world the number of peoples around the world who have a folk myth regarding an inundation (when we know that most of the then 'Humanity' would have suffered such?) is compelling(??) The useful information held by the aboriginal folks living in the Arctic circle does not seem to include info regarding past ice retreats on such a scale. Do we dare discount the info that their folk have survived by by utilizing generation upon generation worth of accrued knowledge? how can such a racial memory be so short lived when most of the folk memories of he world seem to reach back to the last great inundation?

On the other hand, the early hunter-gatherers might simply have had a tendency to hunt and gather on flood-plains? You know, just as I keep close to my favourite source of bacon butties, my forebears never wandered too-far from the crocodile crackers?

I think I'm wandering off-topic?

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes and Im sure 2,000 years ago they was a lot less ice in summer then there is now but that wasn't caused by man.

Isn't this thread about whether 'man' is causing a rapid reduction in summer arctic ice, or is it a natural variation.

I dont believe the little ice age as it was called , was caused by man.

I personally dont like this 'lowest ice cover on record' when clearly it isn't.

Did you not read the paper that put the causes of the LIA at man's (well the Spanish mans) feet?. The Collapse of the Meso-American folk and the re-forestation of that part of the world sequestered so much CO2 as to bring about the LIA.........but then that hinges upon CO2 being able to do such things!!

Hi Chris!

I was thinking more about the folk on the northern extremities today .If they had recent experience of melt then they would have folk tales about it and how they survived it.As it is they seem to be all at sea (must have drifted off from the pack!!) with the rapid alteration in conditions and it's impacts on their 'normal' patterns of life.

I think that there are DNA tags (along with flint arrow point technology) that place NW European man in N.America as long as 16,000yrs ago?

[Chris Knight]

Did you not read the paper that put the causes of the LIA at man's (well the Spanish mans) feet?. The Collapse of the Meso-American folk and the re-forestation of that part of the world sequestered so much CO2 as to bring about the LIA.........but then that hinges upon CO2 being able to do such things!!

Hi Chris!

I was thinking more about the folk on the northern extremities today .If they had recent experience of melt then they would have folk tales about it and how they survived it.As it is they seem to be all at sea (must have drifted off from the pack!!) with the rapid alteration in conditions and it's impacts on their 'normal' patterns of life.

I think that there are DNA tags (along with flint arrow point technology) that place NW European man in N.America as long as 16,000yrs ago?

Hi GW, I think that if the conditions at any time in the past had been as they have been over the last few years, those few who may have ventured onto the icepack during the summer melt may likely not have survived, and those hunting caribou for bone-marrow and meat for the dogs on solid land did. It would have been a salutory lesson, and such a foolhardy venture probably not repeated. I am sure there must be tales of famed hunters who never returned, for whatever reasons - there were tales of kayakers washed up on Scottish beaches weren't there?