Convective/storm Discussion

[pottyprof]

Photos are all great! Did anyone manage to get any video of todays storms, if so, would love to see!

I got some. will up it later..

[VillagePlank]

Nice one to all who have seen/are still seeing some good storms today Some excellent photos of the rotating wall cloud, too, given slightly more favourable conditions (strong 300hPa winds, and a little stronger lower level wind shear) and who knows what might have occured!

For sure the starting of a mesocyclone as a gust front interacted with cloud base instability?

Edited June 10, 2009 by VillagePlank

[TonyH]

Thundery skies today, I did not hear any though. I was in Aberystwyth where there was just a couple of showers.

Phoned home as I was checking the radar on my phone mid afternoon, and it looked like the Lampeter area was getting hit quite bad by the MO red brigade! The wife phoned back 2 hours later to report there had been 'a heavy shower at 3 o'clock', so I came home expecting to find a couple of mm in the gauge.

It was a pleasant surprise therefore to find 13.8mm in the gauge! 10mm had fallen between 2-3pm, bet there was thunder too!? The Pontrhydygroes WS 20 miles to my NE was put out of action by lightning strikes soon after 11am.

[jo200199]

awwww...I'm so jealous Looked pukka for some action earlier, but the clouds kept rolling by 1 half hearted attempt at a rumble about 5.20pm and a little rain :lol: The met office warnings should be for where there is going to be NO weather to write home about.

[dave48]

For anyone that may not have seen. Three pics of CGs caught today while a vicious storm 1-2 miles to my West travelled North.

Nice pics, glad you got a storm in the end, still only one for me this year and that was just rumbles 5-10 miles away!

If you have videos, it would be good to see them too, when you have time to put them up. Looked like some decent storms up your way.

[Mark Bayley]

Had some torrential rain for about 30 Min's, drains were over flowing and it was like aqua planing down the road, still many large puddles, fun for going 100MPH through lol, Was bad in Sheffield, i know the bridge in brightside was closed with one or two others. Didn't have much thunder however there were couple of good bangs. Stopped raining at last

[stumathers]

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/LATEST-Flood...sery.5354677.jp

Earlier in Sheffield.

[03jtrickey]

Found some vids on Youtube, from Sheffield. Looking forward to seeing pottyprof's.

[The PIT]

Some vids here of Sheffield http://www.vimeo.com/5096437

And there was I at home and you could see it over town. As those wondering why I didn't record much if you to http://www.sheffieldweather.co.uk/meso2/index.html and click on the webcam and select the east one you'll see we were on the edge of it most of the time.

[Mark Bayley]

Was bad when i went to Northern General earlier, we couldn't get under the bridge at brightside (think its called brightside), and some of the roads around the old steel works were quite bad, didn't see anything like the vids though!

Edited June 10, 2009 by mark bayley

[Stormraider]

Well It was thundering in the distance when I was waiting to be picked up from work outside wednesfield. Long deep rumbles, the odd strike, carried on for well over an hour. Loads of rain and quite dark for 4pm.

My phobia is getting better as I listened to them all but still felt anxious.

[03jtrickey]

This recent weather has been mad.

First 93mm of rain at Exeter on Saturday, now 3 inches in Sheffield in a matter of hours!

I used to think 50mm rain was a lot for a day - this seems to be becoming a more regular occurrence.

[sunny scunny]

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/LATEST-Flood...sery.5354677.jp

Earlier in Sheffield.

Thats a lot of rain nothing here all day.

[Koppite]

Here's a CG I caught earlier.

Missed most of the action today due to work commitments, so excuse me for catching up on the thread. Very impressive photo weather09, well captured.

[Paul Sherman]

Tomorrow is looking pretty good for Areas from North East England all the way down to Norfolk and Suffolk for some More Intense Thunderstorms. If I was going to pick out a few locations it would be the East Midlands, Lincs, Norfolk, Cambs and Suffolk for a chance of Weak Tornadoes and Hail in the more Severe Cells.

I am sure Brick or Nick or indeed Tony G will do a more detailed forecast in this thread shortly.

Going to try and wangle the day off as our Little Tornado Alley in East Anglia could spark off a few more Surprises tomorrow.

Wales at last having a rest tomorrow.

Paul S

[TonyH]

This recent weather has been mad.

First 93mm of rain at Exeter on Saturday, now 3 inches in Sheffield in a matter of hours!

I used to think 50mm rain was a lot for a day - this seems to be becoming a more regular occurrence.

Just typical of slack, showery/thundery set ups during summer really. Such events have always happened, its more that we are made more aware of them in this 24-hour news/ internet age. Also typical, is how other areas have escaped the showers.

[StormChaser]

Had my second rumble of thunder this afternoon around about, 3-4pm ish. One clap, of thunder and boy did it rain hard for half an hour. All of it seems to have died away now:(

Edited June 10, 2009 by StormChaser

[maidstone weather]

Tomorrow is looking pretty good for Areas from North East England all the way down to Norfolk and Suffolk for some More Intense Thunderstorms. If I was going to pick out a few locations it would be the East Midlands, Lincs, Norfolk, Cambs and Suffolk for a chance of Weak Tornadoes and Hail in the more Severe Cells.

I am sure Brick or Nick or indeed Tony G will do a more detailed forecast in this thread shortly.

Going to try and wangle the day off as our Little Tornado Alley in East Anglia could spark off a few more Surprises tomorrow.

Wales at last having a rest tomorrow.

Paul S

I guess that doesn't include Kent? :lol: (business as usual then )

[Marcus_surfer]

Great videos there, thats alot of rain! Not a drop of rain here today, very pleasant weather here on the coast

[Paul Sherman]

No unfortunately the Drought goes on for SE Essex and Kent (MW) It is an unusually bad year here for Storms or any kind of Rainfall for that matter. Only recorded 23mm for May which is my lowest for over 5 years as May is usually one of the wettest months. June currently on 18mm so this is looking likely to be above average but only for Persistant Overnight Rain, No convection within 25 Miles of here since Mid April!

Light to scattered Showers for kent and S Essex I am afraid unless the Models change overnight.

Paul S

[wkdfraggle]

Just heard a long rumble in the distance here in Manchester

[The PIT]

Okay doke offical rain figures for Derbyshire Lane 29.4mm so the Davis was doing fairly well tracking it.

It never rained at home like it did in Town so remember Tstorms and heavy rain are localised. I suspect Western park got around two inches maybe more.

Sheffield also has problems with the council not clearing the drains which would have made matters worse. I suspect that was the main reason why Heeley bridge flooded normally 99% of the drains are blocked leading down to the bridge.

Edited June 11, 2009 by The PIT

[VillagePlank]

Conditions forecast for S/E today (London area) ..

Here's the forecast skew-t

Cloud heights not that great, not a great deal of shear, and convection almost entirely dependent on surface heating with progressively dryer air as you head upwards from 800hPa. Interesting to see 100% humidity at 800hPa (Tdd=0) However, being, forever, the hopecaster ....

Here's what would happen if the Tc between 700hPa and 600hPa was, say perhaps 0.5C cooler than forecast ...

Nice high (ish) clouds, and, with TT=51, thunderstorms become likely (rather than heavy showers), although convection initiation (LI/K) still marginal if not completely unsuitable! A case of if it initiates, then t/storms become likely, with the outside chance of a very isolated severe one. Initiation today - think somewhere of around 17C at the surface for midday, once again; breaks in the cloud are key today to get temps that high - main times to look out for between 11am to 4pm, I would say. In terms of location, I think I am going to have to go for the City of London, and S Essex, and N Kent, perhaps a little further North (tie in both negative values for most bouyant atmosphere, below) Possible high based storms in E Anglia later, but those will be very dependent on surface heating.

VP Handy hint - watch for risk area to advect (move) east during mid afternoon, but there's no escaping that the actual GFS forecast (see first skew-t) shows a very very low risk; perhaps one cell moving over the S/E area containing one or two sferics. Our best bet is something over Salisbury plain developing and moving East.

A rational forecast would call for showers, some heavy, occasionally thundery for the S/E region, today.

Edited June 11, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Coast]

A very active day in prospect for those in Eastern Europe with some level 1's and 2's according to ESTOFEX and a map that includes much of the Dutch/Belgium lowlands and some of South and Eastern England.

I see the UKASF have a similar area under watch but include a highlighted area in East Anglia (right up to the front door of Paul Sherman's house! ) marked as a potential TStorm spot.

21st Operational Weather Squadron have that area slowly moving NE away from East Anglia over the course of the day and the GFS combined model for this afternoon highlighting again that East Anglian 'zone of hopefulness'

[Nick F]

Have started a new thread for today's potential: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=55354