Sea Surface Temperature - SSTs

[azores92]

Huston,

We have a problem. :lol:

and to think how much better off we could be without it, as brickfielder has already said :lol:

[kippure]

and to think how much better off we could be without it, as brickfielder has already said

I done a quick comparrison of the sst,s going back 10 years. The last time we had a cold pool off to our south west was 2003. What a great winter we had. We had two lows dive south and cold air under cut them, lots of the white stuff.

Link to comparasion.

http://www.irelandsw...index.php/topic,391.0.html

Also note this present plunge from the labador current

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_loop.gif

Edited November 19, 2009 by kippure

[J07]

Latest Pacific(El Nino)state from NOAA

It Looks as if El Nino has strenthened (+2.5c-3c in places) and spread Eastwards.

The warm water has got quite a long way west hasn't it....

Also it looks terrible for swimming around New Zealand. Looks like a repeat of Christmas 2006 could be on the cards (too cold for swimming)!

[karyo]

Interesting lowering of the SSTs in the area of the Azores: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

They were strongly positive up to last week or so (>+2) but now much cooler. I wonder whether this can discourage the Azores high formation and drag the jet further south, aided also by the strongly negative SSTs east of Newfoundland!

Of course the Pacific can still override this but something positive nevertheless!

Karyo

[ThunderStorms]

I think this is very positive and is exactly what was missing so that we have here in Portugal the winter will be old .... with heavy rain, wind and thunder!

I believe that with the latest signs of either El Nino or all adjacent to this fenonemo with a low angular momentum of these factors and the stage is set to have a very interesting winter in Portugal and the United Kingdom!

There is faith!

[cooling climate]

CH posted this image a couple of weeks ago either in this thread or the stratosphere thread.

Since then it appears to have grown more intense. This must surely be related to volcanic

activity on the sea bed.

<A href="http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/"> <BR clear=left>Click here to go to the EMC/MMAB homepage <H2 align=center>RTOFS (Atlantic) Graphic Nowcasts/Forecasts</H2>Home Compare with Obs Data Assim Monitor (Internal) RTOFS & WOCE Graphics Viewer Data Access About the Model Choose a Region --------------------- Atlantic Ocean Western North Atlantic Zoom Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Sector Labrador Sea Run Date:

(yyyymmdd or latest)

archives for last 3 months Temperature Surface Height Mixed Layer Salinity Horizontal Current Vertical Velocity Depth (m): 0 100 200 500 700 1000 2000 3000 4000 Latest 1000m Temperature Forecast for 120 Hours Map Size

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[karyo]

Latest from unisys:

http://weather.unisy...e/sst_anom.html

It shows that the El Nino remains west based. In fact, there has been some recent cooling to the eastern regions.

The net weather winter forecast draws some attention to the warm anomaly over the Azores region. This can promote milder weather at times, especially during the latter part of winter. This has also decreased recently from +2 to +1.86 currently. Let's hope this continues.

The cold anomaly to the east of Newfoundland is also not as intense but this has been increasing and decreasing in intensity over the last few weeks.

We also have an increasing warm anomaly in the North sea, thanks to the continuous mild weather...

Karyo

Edited November 25, 2009 by karyo

[Iceberg]

I think I said to Tamara when she noticed cooling last week that the unisys maps are not good enough to notice small changes in ENSO unfortunately (it would be good if it were).

The latest weekly update from CPC (which came out Monday evening) showed that there had been no cooling of the ENSO areas(any of them) and that there had been considerable eastward movememt of the warm anomalies.

I must remember to update the ENSO thread but the 4 week 3.4 ENSO figure has increase to 1.65 from 1.5 with the last 3 weeks now being 1.7.

As you say Karyo I hope we can maintain the negative NAO SSTs in the Atlantic.

[azores92]

well 2 very different posts there. one to make you relieved, and then the second to shatter your hopes and dreams

[phil nw.]

I think I said to Tamara when she noticed cooling last week that the unisys maps are not good enough to notice small changes in ENSO unfortunately (it would be good if it were).

The latest weekly update from CPC (which came out Monday evening) showed that there had been no cooling of the ENSO areas(any of them) and that there had been considerable eastward movememt of the warm anomalies.

I must remember to update the ENSO thread but the 4 week 3.4 ENSO figure has increase to 1.65 from 1.5 with the last 3 weeks now being 1.7.

As you say Karyo I hope we can maintain the negative NAO SSTs in the Atlantic.

[/quote

Hi Iceberg,

Here`s the latest from NOAA,

Looks as if the EL Nino strength remains about moderate,

The colder area off Newfoundland still there maybe moved a little towards Mid-Atlantic.

,

Closer look at the Pacific here

It looks as if the warmest sea temps. are still West of the dateline on this.

Hope these are usefull.

Edited November 25, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[karyo]

I think I said to Tamara when she noticed cooling last week that the unisys maps are not good enough to notice small changes in ENSO unfortunately (it would be good if it were).

Actually, I don't find the NOAA charts helpful for identifying changes in the sea surface temperatures. This is because you have to see the colour on the map and then match it with the temperature deviation on the bottom of the screen.

Unisys, has the temperature deviation on the map which is very helpful! I have saved a couple of Unisys outputs as word documents (starting 12th Nov) and periodically compare with the latest output. It shows some cooling in the east.

Karyo

Edited November 25, 2009 by karyo

[cooling climate]

I think the TAO maps are best for monitoring what is happening temperature wise in the enso regions.

[SteveB]

What is that positive anomaly of the east coast of the USA??.

http://weather.unisy...e/sst_anom.html

It's of the scale.

Edited November 26, 2009 by SteveB

[Iceberg]

I think the TAO maps are best for monitoring what is happening temperature wise in the enso regions.

Yep thanks CC this kind of tropics map is much more useful, I use one from Ifremer normally.

I've drawn on the 3 main zones 4, 3,4 and 3. 3.4 Being the zone used to measure the ENSO figure. Zone 3 is the eastern ENSO zone.

Essentially it's 2 boxes then an overlapping one in the middle for the 3.4.

Sorry I am not trying to be rude about the unisys but it just doesn't have the level needed to look at anything beyond basic trends. The official measurers (CPC) are still insisting the ENSO has not declined (yet).

Cheers

Edited November 26, 2009 by Iceberg

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well according to the Unisys I'd say there appears to be a cold water 'ganging up' against the El Nino. The -ve PDO is looking pretty robust now and the cold pooling off Newfoundland despite that 'hotspot'. Nino hemispheric affects remain curtailed and I still am of the opinion that we will see Nino decline through the winter.

for some reason NW site won't allow me to download image. Get a lot of this since the upgrades

BFTP

[Iceberg]

Fred I've updated ENSO here.

According to all sources El Nino is continuing to move eastwards and is not declining.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think I said to Tamara when she noticed cooling last week that the unisys maps are not good enough to notice small changes in ENSO unfortunately (it would be good if it were).

As you say Karyo I hope we can maintain the negative NAO SSTs in the Atlantic.

I accept what you say about the unisys map - it might not tell the whole picture in regard ENSO as you suggest.

However, as said before, el nino has to be taken in conjunction with many other factors, and as documented in the strat thread there are potentially very interesting developments happening there that are already making quite a difference to the usual early winter profile of the polar vortex and the blocking patterns. There are good indications that this vortex disruption might become an increasing player this winter with further warmings continuing and perhaps becoming ever more significant with time. Taking into account the atlantic NAO signature, then it is not beyond possibility by any means that the role that el nino plays is simply to send lows along a much more southerly route than usual with more and more of the UK and europe on the winning side of the polar front.

Also we have to take into account the atmosphere 'disconnect' factor that GP talks about in depth in his winter forecast in terms of it not entailing any dominant nino mild pattern that gets associated with it.

Edited November 27, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred I've updated ENSO here.

According to all sources El Nino is continuing to move eastwards and is not declining.

Ah great, we've been waiting for you Ice to do that....well I am lazy and not so versed

BFTP