Convective/Storm Discussion

[richep]

Some fierce looking weather in southern Ireland at the moment, will this affect the west country later or will it be further north. I can't realy make out any movement

[dogs32]

yes looks interesting down in Ireland and Cornwall...Thundery down pours

[dogs32]

Looks like a couple of nice cells near to the SW coast as a result of the trough currently over this region. Most likely hail in these cells and some gusty winds.

all slowly heading this way...

nice bit of action for later hopefully

a few sferics showing up

Edited November 7, 2009 by dogs32

[SteveB]

Recent sferics over Weston to Bristol area, anyone got thunder there?

Late in replying, but yes a storm passed through with a couple of flashes and rumbles.

[WeatherXP]

Certainly looks my area is in the firing line! Will keep an eye out for the flashes (if there arent too many fireworks!). MetO also now have a severe weather warning out for much of the southwest and parts of south Wales.

[richep]

Yeah those fireworks make hard work for lightning spotting. Had acouple of looks out the window,plenty of flashes going off but not lightning sadly. Heavy showers very close according to the met office radar,but no rain yet

[philglossop]

Plymouth is no longer in the no storms club

Shower line hit Plymouth about 5pm. Drove home seeing lots of lightening over Plymstock and towards Heybrook Bay. All roads in Plymstock, Down Thomas and Heybrook Bay flooded. Came home to darkness at 530pm the electric having gone and seeing lots of lightening out to sea drifting towards the East. According to other half, storm started at 5pm.

Of course the storm had to hit whilst I was at work, would love to have seen it from the lounge window!

[Evening thunder]

Saw a couple of flashes of lightning to my south about 10 mins ago from some interesting cells quite far away that recently moved east from the southern tip of Devon. They were a few mins apart but could have seen more if i had noticed the radar earlier. Definitely lightning as there was a bright flash in the clouds behind the dark shapes of a few bits of cloud in front of them.

can see firework flashes now and there completely tame in comparison, about 50 times weaker flashes id say.

Edit: Just happened to look out the window again at the right moment bit it was less bright so not 100% sure this time.

Edit again, just seen philglossop's post, seems I looked a bit too late or it was too far away to see most of them!

Edited November 7, 2009 by StormMad26

[CardiffStorm]

getting heavy rain here but no T&L (that I know of anyway). I think if anything happens it will be further South and probably closer to the English Channel

[Jane Louise]

all slowly heading this way...

nice bit of action for later hopefully

a few sferics showing up

dogs, do you think we will get anything? I've got my webcam all setup all I can hear outside is the damn fireworks lol

[MP-R]

Plenty of intense downpours around today with sunny spells between - a perfect autumn day! The first brought two flashes of lightning and a few loud rumbles of thunder at about 10.00 this morning then the second was the heaviest at 11.30 with some very heavy hail and strong winds, again with a bang of thunder at the end. The showes have not been so torrential since but frequent enough.

Looks like some real activity down off the Cornwall coast and in the English Channel, how I would love that to be much further north.

[philglossop]

Lots of power outages here at the moment- just managed to get back online.

Clear at the moment- can see the Eddystone light flashing, but radar is interesting for an hour or so yet.

Wind also very gusty!

[Tn9]

Wind has backed a bit in the channel helping push some showers inland here,cant tell if there is any lightning in the distance though as its like a bad day in Baghdad with the fireworks.

[richep]

Plenty of intense downpours around today with sunny spells between - a perfect autumn day! The first brought two flashes of lightning and a few loud rumbles of thunder at about 10.00 this morning then the second was the heaviest at 11.30 with some very heavy hail and strong winds, again with a bang of thunder at the end. The showes have not been so torrential since but frequent enough.

Looks like some real activity down off the Cornwall coast and in the English Channel, how I would love that to be much further north.

This could of been your shower this morning Michael, Taken just after 10:00 this morning looking north towards bristol

It may have been a bit south for it to have been your shower, but it was taken around that time

[Snowy Bob]

Definitely some lighting down here, distinct rumbles of thunder a few miles away...

[dogs32]

dogs, do you think we will get anything? I've got my webcam all setup all I can hear outside is the damn fireworks lol

I doubt it Jane...But there is another batch comming into our area soon..

Might get the odd spark if we are lucky

[Harry]

Will be keeping the blinds open this evening in that case - fireworks all but finished now so if nature throws her little display, I may see it!! Fingers crossed

[Tom Lynch]

Plenty of intense downpours around today with sunny spells between - a perfect autumn day! The first brought two flashes of lightning and a few loud rumbles of thunder at about 10.00 this morning then the second was the heaviest at 11.30 with some very heavy hail and strong winds, again with a bang of thunder at the end. The showes have not been so torrential since but frequent enough.

Looks like some real activity down off the Cornwall coast and in the English Channel, how I would love that to be much further north.

Much much further north would be better, like Cumbria.

Tom

[Coast]

Hmmmmm, wasn't expecting much activity today but:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 09 Nov 2009 06:00 to Tue 10 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 09 Nov 2009 05:39

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

An occluding low pressure system over the East Atlantic will affect the British Isles in the afternoon / evening hours. The cold front which should cross Ireland during Monday afternoon is forecast to weaken, but some low-end instability near the occlusion point may lead to showers and thunderstorms over SW Ireland, Wales, SW / S England and extreme NW France. Other regions remain rather quiet as cold air overspreads large portions of eastern and central Europe and an upper ridge stretches northeastward from Iberia towards France.

DISCUSSION

...SW Ireland, Irish Sea, Wales, SW England, extreme NW France...

Ahead of the cold front of an occluding surface low, a few hundred J/kg are forecast in a region with strong deep layer shear and enhanced SRH3. Storms will probably organise into multicellular lines which may produce an isolated severe gust and / or a brief tornado but overall storm coverage is probably too low for a level 1.

Strong deep layer shear and a few hundred J/kg CAPE are also forecast for the S Bay of Biscay but rather weak QG forcing as well as low level CAA in the wake of the trough should limit the potential of severe thunderstorms. An isolated severe gust is not ruled out, though.

ESTOFEX seem to be going through a phase of calling storms over the UK while others are treating it with caution or not at all. What do the charts say?

Possibly a remote chance of something for Ireland this evening, but it is remote and I'm surprised it warranted mention by ESTOFEX?

[Coast]

I think I prefer the old ESTOFEX. :o Let me see, GFS shows no CAPE and poor lapse rates. No instability. And, we have a temporary ridge from the SW.

Yep, not sure what warranted the yellow area. Still the time frame hasn't really arrived yet, although I must say they have been a tad over-cautious recently

[Coast]

Looks like a quiet day for the UK, but who fancies going to the Eastern Mediterranean later?

[Joneseye]

Looks fun over the eastern med! a few water-spouts maybe?

[Coast]

ESTOFEX out on their own again for the UK this morning:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 11 Nov 2009 06:00 to Thu 12 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 10 Nov 2009 23:47

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Rather complex synoptic scenario is expected over Europe during the forecast period. A large cyclonic vortex at mid and upper levels, centred over Slovakia is filled with cool airmass.

At its southern fringes, strong mid-level jet is diverted around it with windspeeds locally over 35 m/s. Another feature will be a cold-core low over Finland and extreme Northwestern Russia, surrounded by strong mid-level flow and intense forcing at its forward flank. A subtle ridge will move over Western Europe, slowly decaying as an impulse in form of a short wave trough will quickly arrive in a jet-stream and influence the weather over the British Isles and France during the Wednesday night.

Although some chart evidence to support a low level risk:

Yesterday reloaded?

[Jane Louise]

Thank you Coast! as you can guess I'm still awaiting a storm (nothing unusual) lol.

I've been following my storm risk for this Saturday and it's looking pretty good!! but I bet Inow have gone and jinxed it. lol

[Coast]

I've been following my storm risk for this Saturday and it's looking pretty good!! but I bet I now have gone and jinxed it. lol

Friday night into Saturday seems the best chance for you Jane Louise, take a look at the Friday 13th thread