Hurricane Ida

[Somerset Squall]

Recon has been into Ida and have found winds of 85kts, making Ida a cat 2. Ida looks like it will make landfall on the gulf coast not far east of New Orleans as an extratropical storm with hurricane force winds. If transition to an extratropical storm takes a little longer than predicted then Ida will still be a hurricane at landfall. High shear and colder waters in the northern Gulf will initiate extratropical transition but it is uncertain when ET will be complete. Track forecasts now show Ida moving across Florida as an extratropical system before emerging into the Atlantic west of the Bahamas. Ida should then be absorbed by a larger extratropical low.

[Somerset Squall]

Ida has killed 54 in El Salvador:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/weather/11/08/tropical.storm.ida/index.html

[Iceberg]

A good tight eye now, recon shows pressure falling and strong winds in the eye wall. come quick intensification might well be underway in the next 12 hrs and pressure could well drop very quickly with a strong response in the eye wall (outside major cane as KW said).

Pressure now down to 972.

181330 2140N 08556W 6971 02991 9855 +114 +052 198084 087 060 000 00

181400 2141N 08557W 6952 02994 9816 +126 +052 192072 082 058 004 00

181430 2143N 08559W 6951 02982 9782 +148 +051 205045 047 039 000 03

181500 2143N 08601W 6967 02955 9755 +162 +053 202033 038 038 002 03

181530 2144N 08602W 6950 02971 9747 +165 +058 202024 027 036 000 03

181600 2144N 08604W 6958 02967 9739 +173 +065 200013 017 032 000 00

181630 2145N 08606W 6963 02961 9735 +177 +071 291002 004 031 000 00

181700 2145N 08608W 6963 02971 9741 +177 +077 302009 011 031 001 03

181730 2147N 08608W 6957 02973 9733 +183 +083 075004 006 034 001 03

181800 2148N 08607W 6961 02963 9719 +191 +088 142008 009 036 001 00

181830 2149N 08605W 6965 02954 9718 +188 +094 132016 022 041 000 00

181900 2151N 08604W 6958 02963 9733 +175 +098 136025 031 071 000 03

181930 2152N 08603W 6958 02968 9774 +138 +102 150045 048 081 000 03

182000 2153N 08601W 6967 02964 9812 +116 +103 149063 070 083 002 00

182030 2155N 08600W 6952 03005 9850 +100 +100 143086 091 080 006 00

182100 2156N 08558W 6966 03004 9906 +074 +074 141092 094 077 009 01

182130 2157N 08557W 6952 03035 9923 +068 +068 136089 092 074 011 00

Now sub 970 so intensification is definately ongoing.

200700 2202N 08609W 7028 02865 9720 +171 +129 234019 021 031 001 00

200730 2201N 08608W 6961 02952 9689 +202 +128 230032 035 029 003 03

200800 2200N 08606W 6972 02944 9695 +204 +128 228047 055 035 002 00

200830 2158N 08605W 6967 02959 9703 +205 +130 235060 061 040 001 00

200900 2157N 08604W 6963 02982 9718 +203 +133 232063 067 043 002 00

[Rob]

IDA a very complex storm now and looks to make landfall in the US as a CAT1/2. Is currently a strong Catergory 2 and could make a Cat 3 before wind shear affects it.

[Cookie]

A long post from me a lot to cram in,

hurricane watches issued

000

WTNT31 KNHC 082048

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009

300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM

GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT

INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING

MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND

PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF

MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM

CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF

PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA

OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...

155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT

510 MILES...815 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI

RIVER.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.

A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...

IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST

TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

140 MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES

OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL

AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES

WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE

THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD

INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN

APPALACHIANS.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET

ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR

THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE

WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900

PM CST.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS

Edited November 9, 2009 by cookie

[Cookie]

Louisiana put on hurricane alert

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency as the US Gulf Coast are braced for the arrival of Hurricane Ida.

Forecasters says the category 2 storm is entering the Gulf of Mexico with winds of up to 100mph (160 kph).

Ida is expected to gather speed as it moves north over open water towards the US coast.

However, the National Hurricane Center said it is expected to weaken before reaching the Gulf Coast by Tuesday.

At 2100 GMT on Sunday, the centre said Ida was about 95 miles (155km) west-north-west of Cuba, moving at about 10mph (16km/h) per hour.

The storm has already lashed parts of Central America and a tropical storm warning is in place for the western tip of Cuba.

Forecasters warned that Ida could bring up to 5in (12cm) of rain to the Mexican state of Yucatan and western Cuba, as well as storm surges and "large and destructive waves".

map locator

A separate low-pressure system coupled with the tail end of Ida also caused torrential rain in El Salvador which left more than 90 people dead from floods and landslides.

"Ida is expected to begin losing tropical characteristics on Tuesday as it nears the Gulf Coast but it could reach the coast as a tropical cyclone," the hurricane centre said.

A hurricane watch is in effect from south-east Louisiana to the Florida panhandle, meaning hurricane conditions are possible in the next day and a half.

The state of emergency declaration is a precaution that frees up state resources. The National Guard and state agencies have been put on high alert.

New Orleans is not included in the watch area.

Last year Hurricane Gustav caused an estimated two million people to flee inland from the Louisiana coast.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8349700.stm

[Somerset Squall]

Ida's intensity is still only 85kts, a low end cat 2. Ida may intensify a little more, but I think cat 3 is unlikely. Shear is already affecting Ida, giving it a slightly tilted look, in addition, the eye is being reported as open, which means that the shear may already be affecting the inner core of the hurricane. Nevertheless, aggressive weakening probably won't occur for another 24hrs, when shear will really increase and ocean heat content rapidly declines. It's still uncertain whether Ida will compete extratropical transition before landfall, but it won't make much difference as the winds will still be very strong along with a significant storm surge.

[Cookie]

Have edited my post above I misread recon and thought it was closer to a cat 3 then it is. sorry!

Edited November 9, 2009 by cookie

[Somerset Squall]

Have edited my post above I misread recon and thought it was closer to a cat 3 then it is. sorry!

LOL Cookie, don't worry about it, recon is difficult to de-code at the best of times! Shear was always going to cap intensification. Ida has done really well to get as strong as she has- originally she was only expected to reach 50kts in the WCAR.

And then again, I could end up with egg on my face, as always we will have to wait and see lol.

Edited November 9, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

would it be safe to say shear not as strong as it was meant to be?

[Rob]

IDA just 6mph off becoming a major hurricane, it loos possible that it will grab that last 6mph before hitting the stronger shear.

[Somerset Squall]

IDA just 6mph off becoming a major hurricane, it loos possible that it will grab that last 6mph before hitting the stronger shear.

Yes, cat 3 begins at 96kts (or 111mph) but is always rounded down to 95kts. So confusingly, it's not officially a cat 3 until 100kts is reached (115mph), another 10mph to go. It'll be touch and go to say the least.

In knots, the intermediate advisory has upped the winds to 90.

would it be safe to say shear not as strong as it was meant to be?

That certainly could be something to do with it, but maybe the NHC were just being conservative, and perhaps underestimated just what effect the 29C waters would have. In addition, there was the complication of Ida crossing Nicaragua to take into account which basically just made a nightmare forecast.

[Cookie]

Yes, cat 3 begins at 96kts (or 111mph) but is always rounded down to 95kts. So confusingly, it's not officially a cat 3 until 100kts is reached (115mph), another 10mph to go. It'll be touch and go to say the least.

In knots, the intermediate advisory has upped the winds to 90.

That certainly could be something to do with it, but maybe the NHC were just being conservative, and perhaps underestimated just what effect the 29C waters would have. In addition, there was the complication of Ida crossing Nicaragua to take into account which basically just made a nightmare forecast.

yeah it sure was a nightmare

[Iceberg]

Ida has really struggled overnight, recon are barely finding a hurricane atm as shear and lack of convection is really taking a toll.

Maybe 65Kts and just a hurricane and the next advisory but pressure is up 30mb from last night and winds are now well scattered pulling further away from the centre as the transistion is extra tropical is starting.

[Iceberg]

Well they've lowered her intensity to 80kts, but fully admit that the highest flight level winds are only 74Kts.

74 Kts would normally equate to 65Kts, just a CAT 1. Still this close to the US I can see why they are being extremely cautious.

[londonsnow]

seems shear is kicking in now. touch and go whether ida makes US landfall as a hurricane or a TS. even so a potentially dangerous system

[Coast]

NEW YORK — Oil companies are evacuating workers from operations in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Ida approaches.

Chevron Corp. said Monday it has removed enough employees to affect oil production in the Gulf. The company said in a news release that it is closely watching its Pascagoula refinery, located on the Mississippi coast between Mobile, Ala. and New Orleans, and taking "all necessary steps" to secure it ahead of the storm.

Ida was moving north-northwest about 185 miles off of the Mississippi River early Monday with winds reaching 70 mph. It was downgraded from a Category 1 hurricane earlier in the day. The storm trajectory would put it east of New Orleans and the majority of oil and gas facilities in the Gulf, but that can change quickly. Oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico account for about 25 percent of U.S. crude production and 15 percent of natural gas production.

Oil and gas producers pull workers off of platforms and from other facilities as a matter of policy if a serious storm threatens. How that affects production, and energy prices, depends on the severity of the storm. When hurricanes struck the Gulf Coast last year, gasoline prices in some parts of the country spiked.

A Category 1 hurricane like Ida can lead to shut-ins that take 1.3 million barrels of oil off the market, according to the Energy Information Administration. Those production numbers plummet when hurricanes hit Category 4. Such a storm could remove 14.6 million barrels of production. Last year, hurricanes Gustav and Ike cut production by a combined 61.1 million barrels of crude. It is not clear how a drop in production would affect prices this year. The country has been sitting on a huge stockpile of crude and natural gas as factories shut down and millions of Americans were given pink slips during the recession.

Still, producers are taking precautions as the storm approaches. BP also has evacuated some personnel and cut back on production. Royal Dutch Shell and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. pulled workers from production and drilling operations in the Gulf. Both companies said the evacuation has not affected oil production so far. Exxon Mobil also relocated nonessential workers from offshore facilities that are in the path of the storm.

Valero Energy Corp., which has a refinery west of New Orleans, says it is tracking Ida, but so far it hasn't removed any workers. Valero spokesman Bill Day said refineries are built with hurricanes in mind, and they're usually tough enough to withstand heavy storms. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port evacuated personnel from an offshore platform and stopped vessels from unloading their crude. LOOP spokeswoman Sherry Dupre said the port has enough oil to supply its customers until the platform reopens midweek.

Crude prices rose almost 3 percent, or $2.26, to $79.69 Monday.

www.google.com/hostednews

[Cookie]

going down very fast

3am

3pm

back down to a tropical storm

[Coast]

going down very fast

:lol:

[Cookie]

thanks for posting coast

[Cookie]

back up to hurricane strength but no upgrade, Ida did strengthen by how much I aint sure though.

..SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...28.4N 88.5W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB

A CONVECTIVE BURST THAT

BEGAN A FEW HOURS AGO HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THE WEAKENING TREND.

PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 58

KT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 60 KT. ON THE MOST

RECENT OUTBOUND PASS...HOWEVER...THE SFMR DID REPORT A VERY SMALL

AREA OF 70-75 KT SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER JUST

DOWNWIND OF THE CONVECTIVE BURST. GIVEN THAT THE CONCURRENT

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE ONLY 45 TO 55 KT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A

LOCAL CONVECTIVE-SCALE PEAK UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION.

[Cookie]

not to much left of IDA now

[Rob]

NHC still issuing advisories for rainstorm IDA, currently with sustained winds of 65mph and producing some very heavy rainfall.

[Cookie]

worst flooding in jersey for 17 years