Preliminary Winter Forecast

[Paul]

The 'official' Netweather winter forecast written by our long range guru Stewart Rampling will be online on the 24th November, but in the meantime he has put a preliminary bulletin together to outline his current thoughts and the factors which are all going to play a part this winter.

Usually these forecasts are only made available to our commercial clients, but this Winter they are freely available, with the prelim outlook now online here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

There is an option to download as a pdf at the bottom if you wish to save it or print it off :unsure:

Paul

[Stuart]

i read a bit of it i dont under stand much of it

[mcweather]

Thanks for this Paul.

Once again Stewart (GP) has put together another excellent piece of work and unlike so many others actually shows his reasoned methodology in reaching his conclusions. (Meto please take note) I particularly like the what to look out for in November section at the end.

Excellent stuff

Edited November 6, 2009 by mcweather

[Osbourne One-Nil]

No mention of Carlisle or Telford I note.

[Iceberg]

It is a very good read and I thank Stuart for taking the time to write it, whether it's right or wrong it's a fantastic piece of work. I particularly like the fact that it talks about probable outcomes and likelyhoods rather than saying x,y,z will happen.

I am not sure whether we can ask questions but are there any examples of the GLAAM overiding an EL NINO signature greater than 1.5C. ?

[Anti-Mild]

Amazing piece of work by GP, and enough to give cause for optimism in the coming winter. Basically, as I understand it, we ought to see a colder than average winter but there are a few factors that may spoil the party.

[Glacier Point]

It is a very good read and I thank Stuart for taking the time to write it, whether it's right or wrong it's a fantastic piece of work. I particularly like the fact that it talks about probable outcomes and likelyhoods rather than saying x,y,z will happen.

I am not sure whether we can ask questions but are there any examples of the GLAAM overiding an EL NINO signature greater than 1.5C. ?

Sure you can.

1972's winter-time value for GLAAM was -0.21 when MEI was 1.68. This may not be such a good analogue as the stratosphere and large parts of the atmosphere behaved like a La Nina, particularly with regard to the stratosphere. The years either side of this also had anomalously cold stratospheres.

Looking at the years when GLAAM was high or higher than strong Ninos identifies 1982, 1991, 1997. This provides an indication of what happens when El Nino and the global weather pattern are rolling along together. The milder variant El Nino winter associated with these analogues is logical given that with ever increasing angular momentum, the drops back in relative momentum become less and this tilts the Global Wind Oscillation towards phases 4-5-6 which are Bartlett territory.

So the analysis is this: major disconntects between El Nino and GLAAM are possible and can be sustained, particularly in the presence of east QBOs; a GLAAM value holding back El Nino will tend the GWO towards shallower orbits which make longer phase space in phases 7-8-0-1 possible. These phases teleconnect to high latitude blocking.

I should add that there are likely to be three opportunities for El Nino to impact the global weather pattern based on tropical wave formation. The first is upcoming. The second timed mid January and the third during a more sustained spell in February.

Edited November 6, 2009 by Glacier Point

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Very well thought out and intensive study. Irrespective of the outcome, much credit is due to GP, Paul and the team for the superb thoroughness of the analysis of this report. And it is only the preliminary forecast too!

[Don]

Sure you can.

1972's winter-time value for GLAAM was -0.21 when MEI was 1.68. This may not be such a good analogue as the stratosphere and large parts of the atmosphere behaved like a La Nina, particularly with regard to the stratosphere. The years either side of this also had anomalously cold stratospheres.

Looking at the years when GLAAM was high or higher than strong Ninos identifies 1982, 1991, 1997. This provides an indication of what happens when El Nino and the global weather pattern are rolling along together. The milder variant El Nino winter is logical given that with ever increasing angular momentum, the drops back in relative momentum become less and this tilts the Global Wind Oscillation towards phases 4-5-6 which are Bartlett territory.

So the analysis is this: major disconntects between El Nino and GLAAM are possible and can be sustained, particularly in the presence of east QBOs; a GLAAM value holding back El Nino will tend the GWO towards shallower orbits which make longer phase space in phases 7-8-0-1 possible. These phases teleconnect to high latitude blocking.

I should add that there are likely to be three opportunities for El Nino to impact the global weather pattern based on tropical wave formation. The first is upcoming. The second timed mid January and the third during a more sustained spell in February.

Many thanks for the forecast, GP. Covers everything extremely well, and also makes it clear that although we have an El Nino we also have very low solar activity amongst other things that may make this Winter different. I may well have been placing too much emphasis on El Nino itself.

:unsure:

Edited November 6, 2009 by Don

[Glacier Point]

Thanks all.

Many thanks for the forecast, GP. Covers everything extremely well, and also makes it clear that although we have an El Nino we also have very low solar activity amongst other things that may make this Winter different. I may well have been placing too much emphasis on El Nino itself.

That's not a bad starting poing Don. El Nino is a major consideration and it still may be. However, we continue to see anomalies to the expected Nino-driven pattern. Monitoring of how far east this MJO gets will tell us an awful lot about El Nino, one of the reasons why we are not going for a full forecast here. Another possible anomaly on the horizon is a cold pattern setting itself for early December - which is at variance with our concensus for El Nino winters which tend to be colder later.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Wow, that's taken me well over 30 minutes to read, re-read and attempt to understand. A fantastic, well balanced piece of work, full of (explained) Three Letter Acronyms (TLA's), which, in my reading of it suggests that we could have a winter that COULD be brilliant, but it is also so finely balanced. We may find that everywhere just the other side of the North Sea is well and truly frozen while we have just moderate cold.

Thanks, appreciated, I look forward to the updates

[karyo]

I also want to congradulate GP and the net weather team for such a thorough and well explained piece of work!It makes the Met Office forecasts look so brief and unexplained!

Good to know what we have to minitor in November as pointers to what happens in the winter.

Karyo

[chionomaniac]

What an exceptional piece of work, concisely explained but wonderfully detailed, thorough and set at a level that does not insult the reader. No sensationalism either. A big thank you to GP and all at net weather for bringing us these initial thoughts. GP, we are lucky to have you here at nw.

All we have to hope for now is that November plays ball and the areas to be monitored progress as we would like (already positive signs in some of these areas).

c

ps the met office could learn a thing or two on how to present a seasonal forecast from this!

[SteveB]

ps the met office could learn a thing or two on how to present a seasonal forecast from this!

Exactly, a proper forecast with detailed information.

Well done Net-Weather.

Edited November 6, 2009 by SteveB

[Azores Hi]

Simply Outstanding!

My understanding of all these teleconnections has slowly evolved from complete baffelling ignorance to something approaching a slight understanding, due in no short measure to Stewarts continued excellent contributions to various winter threads. Thanks mate! And maybe, in another 20 years I may be able to understand fully! :lol:

In the meantime it is my humble opinion that GP has reached a pinnicle in his ability to gather all these various indications and juggle them into a coherent piece of work accessible to most people willing to put a bit of effort into understanding them. I look forward to the updates!

[MR EXTREMES]

im hoping he gets it bang on,

but even if he does not there will always be a reason.

fantastic post even i understand it.

so 10/10.

its fantastic that so many factors have been added which i feel make forecasting more exciting and intresting.

a winter like last year would make me smile,

it may not happen and things may change but hey who cares GP your skills are very valuble.

thanks netweather aswell.:lol:

[phil nw.]

I must add my thanks to you Stewart for such a well researched and clearly explained piece of work.

Your postings are of great value to me and, i am sure, many members on the forum in expanding our knowledge and understanding of these various elememts.

I am slowly becoming more enlightened ,lol.

Keep up the good work.

[Blizzard]

I should add that there are likely to be three opportunities for El Nino to impact the global weather pattern based on tropical wave formation. The first is upcoming. The second timed mid January and the third during a more sustained spell in February.

Just to add my thanks to GP. I don't often post here, but I thought I would as your work is so well laid out and explained.. actually it is pretty much brilliant. If only the Met Office had the guts to lay out there thoughts on the line in a similar manner. Couple of questions if you will.

1 - On the above quote - so basically (those of us prefering colder weather) are crossing our fingers that El Nino leavs the global weather pattern alone on those 3 opportunites & if say it breaks through mid January we may well have a cold(ish) Dec/early Jan but then Bartlett blowtorch?

2 - On last year's major stratospheric warming in Feb. Though this did cause the colder period of weather, it did not seem to have the effects that you thought it would, any thoughts as to why? (please point me elsewhere if this has already been answered).

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

No mention of Carlisle or Telford I note.

Unsurpinsgly, whilst travelling on the M54 the other day, there was no mention of Telford either.

Not sure why.

[stewfox]

Am I being silly but it mentions through to Feb 2009, I assume it means throught to Feb 2010. Kind of cheating otherwise

Agree very interesting read and no mention off Telford

Edited November 6, 2009 by stewfox

[Solar Cycles]

That as to be the most informative, preliminary forecast I've ever seen. Right or wrong GP, you have truly put my faith back into LRF!

[kold weather]

Very interesting read thats for sure, I'm still a little worried that the STJ may infact be a little too strong, esp if we get a top end moderate/strong El Nino. If thats the case then we going to need a lot of help from the AO and the NAO to stop what is likely to be at times a rampant Pacific jet.

I suspect there wil be interest this winter, I'm going to gather my own ideas this weekend about this winter now I've finally got some time, I think December will have a possible 0ve NAO but my worry is we will end up being in a southerly airflow rather then something better, best chances IMO is the NAO actually not being too negative as that would imply a south-easterly tilt, a big strong Azores low enhanced by a strong jet tends to mean most times we have a horrid warm flow...however if we get perfect timing with regards to a proper Greenland high (which is possible IMO, though I think thats more likely in Feb myself) then obviously pattern would be cold and probably stormy.

Personally my early thoughts are suggesting a winter of maybe slightly above normal temps (say between 0.3C and 0.6C) but it hides a very varied winter, much akin to 82-83 in many ways. When NAO goes positive then expect a very mild set-up, if we get a negative set-up, esp further in the season then it could well be pretty impressive as well at times.

[Charltonkerry]

I am another who has not got the ability or knowledge to understand your remarkable work, however i read it, and understood the majority of it, and very much appriciated your time and effort in producing the LRF and also the remarkable effort to make it readable for people like me. I have read many technical papers on varied subjects in the past and non have been so self explanitory, a truly remarkable effort.

Best Regards

Kerry

[Methuselah]

A very well presented forecast...It really is good to see explanations along with predictions...

Well done, Stewart. :winky:

[masheeuk]

excellent piece of work.

well laid out, well explained, couldn't really ask for any more