Tropical Storm 25W

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 98W continued to organise overnight and rapidly developed into a tropical depression, which is now located around 20N 155E, located 600 miles west of Wake Island. The justification for the upgrade was a closed circulation which developed persistant convection for 6 hours. Since development, upper level convergence has choked convection once more leaving the well defined circulation partially exposed. Intensity is 25kts. TD25W has the potential to slightly intensify as waters are warm and shear is low- however, convergence in the upper levels will be the limiting factor in development and 25W is unlikely to become a tropical storm. After 24hrs, shear will significantly rise as 25W swings northeastwards into the upper level westerly wind belt which will destroy the circulation pretty rapidly. 25W will not effect land.

Edited November 7, 2009 by Somerset Squall

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I like systems that wont affect land

[Somerset Squall]

25W has strengthened much more than originally thought. Enhanced poleward outflow has managed to sustain deep convection over the well defined centre, allowing the intensity to rise. 25W is now a 45kt tropical storm. 25W is moving generally eastwards and is beginning to turn towards the northeast as it accelerates into the westerlies. A little more intensification is possible before extratropical transition begins, probably starting around 36hrs time.