Friday 13th / Sat 14th Storms

[Coast]

Windmap from 15.44hrs, 40 Knot winds aready along the entrance to The Channel with >50knots winds on their way:

[Lewis]

Seems as if the band of rain is heading into NW england and has a more N'wards shift.

Is this the main band? or is they 2 (with another one pushing through during the early hours)

[suffolkboy_]

Lands End has already seen a gust of 71mph

http://www.landsendweather.info/

[Kent Snow]

Recorded a 48mph gust today at work(Manston Airport)

It certainly should be a interesing day tomorrow looking out towards the English Channel!

[Lewis]

Woohoo! Met Office have extended their warnings to now include the West Midlands for 'Severe' wind gusts. Bring it on!

Congrats mate, looks like you finally got what you have been waiting for

all i need now is for them to extend one a little further NE lol! im clutching at straws now lmfao

[Dartmoor_Matt]

23mm of rain here so far and its still pouring. Wind seems to be easing a little... or perhaps just getting used to it?

[Marcus_surfer]

Scilly - Latest Conditions

Light Rain

Wind: 54 mph / 87 km/h from the South

Wind Gust: 67 mph / 107 km/h

[Evening thunder]

Certainly begining to get up here now, pretty gusty winds and at times heavy rain. I'm currently not at my normal location but will be shortly.

To me it doesnt look like the 12z GFS is downgrade for all, certainly a downgrade on this run for northern England unfortunately, although for the south and the south west it looks about the same to me, and perhaps actually a very slight upgrade IMO. I dont think the low is suddenly shown not as strong, its just the location and the timing have changed slightly. It all depends on location really..

Havent been on long enough to post for the last few days, hovever I wouldnt be at all surprised if the top gusts are over 80mph in the most exposed areas, similar to the MetO warning for the SW really.

[bethpink]

very windy here and lots of rain, tried to go outside to secure things in garden, could hardly stand!

[A.J]

For Paul.S

Dont know if you have seen this yet..

Torro

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 80mph; hail to 15mm diameter; CG lightning

Later tonight and through tomorrow morning, an active occlusion will be pushed eastwards across England and Wales, again especially across southern parts. Some severe convection may accompany this, bringing wind gusts of up to 80mph in exposed SW'ern parts, and 60-70mph elsewhere. A risk of tornadoes exists with this too, especially if convective lines develop.

The purple area on the WATCH map is the region deemed most at risk from severe winds - a dangerous situation as inland gusts this high are rare in southern Britain.

Thanks Pat.....for any members not sure where to find torro's forecast, click here

[weatherobsuk]

Northern folks should be aware that the Manchester TAF has for 40mph gusts for a time tomorrow morning, higher windspeeds on the upland passes such as the Cat & Fiddle or Snake Pass locally around here.

EGCC 131104Z 1312/1418 15008KT 9999 SCT031 BECMG 1314/1317 12015G28KT 7000 RA BECMG 1318/1321 18015KT TEMPO 1318/1406 18023G40KT 3000 +RA BKN009 BECMG 1400/1403 9999 NSW TEMPO 1400/1415 8000 SHRA BECMG 1409/1412 29013KT

[Just Before Dawn]

Of course it's a downgrade...

Not if you live in EA and the SE Midlands it isn't - it's a 10-15mph increase in projected sustained wind speed at 12pm Saturday. Upgrade and downgrade is really just about geography at the end of the day.

What John's excellent blog suggests to me is the difficulty models often have predicting how low pressure systems like this one will evolve - we've seen these systems develop in models and change enormously even within hours of a potential storm event. I doubt this will be any different in that the best way to get a handle on impact/location/wind speed will be by a combination of members posting reports, reports from weather stations and real-time satellite data.

[Costa Del Fal]

It has to be said how often does us in the West Midlands get a warning from the Met Office for Severe Gales!!! Must be bad! Stay safe people!

[Lewis]

Not if you live in EA and the SE Midlands it isn't - it's a 10-15mph increase in projected sustained wind speed at 12pm Saturday. Upgrade and downgrade is really just about geography at the end of the day.

What John's excellent blog suggests to me is the difficulty models often have predicting how low pressure systems like this one will evolve - we've seen these systems develop in models and change enormously even within hours of a potential storm event. I doubt this will be any different in that the best way to get a handle on impact/location/wind speed will be by a combination of members posting reports, reports from weather stations and real-time satellite data.

Your first sentance sums it up "If you live in the EA and the SE midlands"

1. Not everyone on this forum is from the south east/ea or the south of the U.K a lot of members forget that and it's what narks me off the most.

2. Look back at my last posts i said it's an upgrade for EA and the SW

3. I agree with your take on Johns blog post, the models are having difficulty predicting the LP system, up until the 12z today the GFS was handling it very well.

My weather station is back online, and i'll keep checking other forum members stations. I still think theres a sting in it's tail to come for many, fingers crossed the 18z is an upgrade for us folks that dont live in the south.

Lewis

Edited November 13, 2009 by Lewis

[Zenarcher]

Scilly Saint Marys on xcweather showing 54mph to 67mph. South western parts now showing gusts of around 56mph. Langdon 26mph to 45mph. Greenwich vessel is reporting a lower wave height now but Channel Light Vessel is recording 9.5ft wave height in the English channel.

[Mondy]

Your first sentance sums it up "If you live in the EA and the SE midlands"

1. Not everyone on this forum is from the south east/ea or the south of the U.K a lot of members forget that and it's what narks me off the most.

2. Look back at my last posts i said it's an upgrade for EA and the SW

3. I agree with your take on Johns blog post, the models are having difficulty predicting the LP system, up until the 12z today the GFS was handling it very well.

My weather station is back online, and i'll keep checking other forum members stations. I still think theres a sting in it's tail to come for many, fingers crossed the 18z is an upgrade for us folks that dont live in the south.

Lewis

You think you got it bad, mate?! Lol

Further north than you and I gets many of these systems flying by the western & northern isles. Nobody really bothers as it's outwith the "cone of destruction" in their eyes

[Lynxus]

Pretty much constant rain here, Nothing heavy, but its getting there.

Wind is picking up, Just a steady breeze now.

Lets see what happens later then

Dogs... Any thoughts?

[Paul]

The NMM Hi-res (meso) model has raised the bar a bit for this evening and overnight.

(12z on left, 6z on right)

1900

2100

2300

Changes tomorrow too - keeping the highest winds further south at this time

The NMM + radar + plenty more is available within nw extra:

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/login.pl

[Dartmoor_Matt]

I assume the dark red bit over my way is a good thing? :winky:

[bethpink]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/8359309.stm

[PEMBS PIRATE]

The local firfighters already flat out flooded roads, accidents, 4ft of water in bottom of the garden, power outages, wind is now picking up, never known it like this in this property and have been here since 1990, car broke down outside water over the bonnet now and still raining....

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Your first sentance sums it up "If you live in the EA and the SE midlands"

1. Not everyone on this forum is from the south east/ea or the south of the U.K a lot of members forget that and it's what narks me off the most.

2. Look back at my last posts i said it's an upgrade for EA and the SW

3. I agree with your take on Johns blog post, the models are having difficulty predicting the LP system, up until the 12z today the GFS was handling it very well.

My weather station is back online, and i'll keep checking other forum members stations. I still think theres a sting in it's tail to come for many, fingers crossed the 18z is an upgrade for us folks that dont live in the south.

Lewis

Hi Lewis,

I happen to live in EA and I get narked about those that live down south that have all the lovely storms in summer.

All we need now is for someone down south to complain about all the storms that the North of Scotland usually have and we'll complete the circle.

I think the reality is that us Shandy swigging Southern Softies haven't had a good storm since January 2007, THAT's why we're getting excited about it.

Perhaps you can appreciate that it's been a long time coming

[Devon-Nelly]

Theres going to be a fair amount of flooding i think over the next few days, in the last two weeks we've had 3 inches of rain here and could possibly have just over 4 by the end of the weekend.

Hopefully we might get an end to our storm drought tonight, not had a thunderstorm since April.

Edit: Just looked again and we've now 100.4mm so far this month

Edited November 13, 2009 by Devon-Nelly

[Methuselah]

Please peeps...Complaining about the media-coverage of the storm won't have an effect on its development! :winky:

[coldfingers]

Your first sentance sums it up "If you live in the EA and the SE midlands"

1. Not everyone on this forum is from the south east/ea or the south of the U.K a lot of members forget that and it's what narks me off the most.

2. Look back at my last posts i said it's an upgrade for EA and the SW

3. I agree with your take on Johns blog post, the models are having difficulty predicting the LP system, up until the 12z today the GFS was handling it very well.

My weather station is back online, and i'll keep checking other forum members stations. I still think theres a sting in it's tail to come for many, fingers crossed the 18z is an upgrade for us folks that dont live in the south.

Lewis

Hi Lewis.

I think you should decide to forgive us Southerners for getting a little excited on this and forgetting the members further north.

It is looking very good for me down here on the South Coast and I am getting excited because we so seldom get really interesting weather here.

By which I mean.... No snow! So I can fully understand you feeling a little miffed about being overlooked as I have exactly the same feeling every winter when you Northerners are rejoicing at the prospect of snow.

Besides, you do have the consolation of some wonderful scenery up North.:winky: