Atlantic Lows - November Onwards

[johnholmes]

f5 as often as you like mate-I've issued an Alert-I'm not unhappy with its content and will leave until the morning-some of us do go to bed-its my age I suppose.

If I was being over zealous I MIGHT just up the winds to mention perhaps touching 70mph on the more exposed coasts and headlands, not for your area probably, its south of the low for the wind?

[Mondy]

Link to homepage then - F5 on here isn't so helpful

[johnholmes]

are you asking to link to home page or suggesting it?

[Paul]

Link to homepage then - F5 on here isn't so helpful

You've lost me Mondy, not sure what you're trying to get at?

The alerts can be found in this thread as they're issued:

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/27-weather-forecasts-alerts-and-news-from-netweather/

You can also visit the homepage as often as you like by clicking the home button at the top of this and every other page!

[Mondy]

Ideally both.

If you, as a senior forecaster, are issuing alerts or warnings, and we, as the general viewing public are not seeing them (in the forum), then I ask you suggest to the powers that be to include or link all latest alerts within to make more visible - other fourms do it and it's helpful, really is.

[Mondy]

You've lost me Mondy, not sure what you're trying to get at?

The alerts can be found in this thread as they're issued:

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/27-weather-forecasts-alerts-and-news-from-netweather/

You can also visit the homepage as often as you like by clicking the home button at the top of this and every other page!

The alerts and homepage are not IMHO that clear to observe. Far from me to give constructive crit, but if there are alerts/warnings, shouldn't they appear atop every thread?

[johnholmes]

Mondy-we assume most on here, especially those like yourself who have been members for some time know where and have the nouse to look on the FP, equally over the past week I have been trying to keep people additionally aware of how I felt things were developing in my blog-relatively easy to find but in case you are having difficulty here is the last post in it

Posted Yesterday, 16:04

a quick preliminary look and its looking, shall I say, 'not good', either over the weekend or next week, for both rainfall and wind.

worst for Lakes-SW+W Scotland yet again but other western areas also affected.

I suspect it will need another input into the Front Page and a re issue of our alert to try and get across the seriousness of how this seems to be developing.

alert extended to 15z Monday and upper from 70% to 80%

FP will be re done Sunday

This post has been edited by johnholmes: Yesterday, 16:57

I hope that helps-like I said I'm off to bed in the belief that the Alert is okay indeed is reasonably accurate until I review it first thing tomorrow morning.

[Liam J]

met office have max mean winds for my town at 43mph and gusts in the afternoon 70mph (68mph) (town forecasts) so severe gales are being forecast, and yet they have no mention of it, quite fantastic satellite images now off the west of ireland

[johnholmes]

Regardless of anything else John, Wednesday?? Has been looking blowy for a while. Do you think it will be bad, or just another breezy afternoon??

hi

sorry busy trying to explain to our lovely post man!

to answer your question

I think its firming up to be a blow but as with most weather systems its going to be later tomorrow (after the 12z from all 3 main models) or possibly Monday before I can give a more definite view-now I'd sum it up as windy and with a wet spell as the fronts swing through

hope that helps

[Paul]

As it currently stands, these are the options in terms of keeping up to date with alerts as they're issued:

Forum:

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/27-weather-forecasts-alerts-and-news-from-netweather/

Site - every page has an alert/watch banner which appears when a watch/alert is issued, plus you can check in on the alert status page:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=forecast;type=alerthome

You can subscribe to the messagecentre for free email notifications + sms texts for less than 15p a message:

https://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=messagecentre;sess=

You can subscribe to the rss feed:

http://forum.netweather.tv/rss/forums/1-net-weather-newsforecasts-and-alerts/

You can also follow us on twitter:

http://twitter.com/Netweather

[johnholmes]

met office have max mean winds for my town at 43mph and gusts in the afternoon 70mph (68mph) (town forecasts) so severe gales are being forecast, and yet they have no mention of it, quite fantastic satellite images now off the west of ireland

oh dear another query

I'm not a Met forecaster any more so can only guess at their actions

this seems to sum up their view

Headline:

Very windy with blustery showers.

This Evening and Tonight:

A windy but fairly mild night with rain over the east clearing to be followed by broken cloud and blustery showers. The showers heaviest and most frequent over the west and along the south coast.

Sunday:

Showers or longer spells of rain, often heavy, for all areas. Becoming very windy with widespread coastal gales, locally severe over the south and west.

is that not sufficient-other than that please go to their web site and find their warning criteria for wind strengths-they certainly metnion winds of 60mph looking at their own alert for this weather system.

Unlike me they will be beavering away all night and should they see the need to issue something I'm sure they will.

[Cookie]

please mondy don't ruin this thread for the rest of us.

[johnholmes]

my word thank you for that-obviously a very astute father he has

[Cookie]

*The fronts which brought yet more rain to Cumbria and other regions of the UK have now moved away into the North Sea. Behind these fronts, however, troughs of low pressure are bringing several lines of thunderstorms, which has prompted TORRO to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

An unstable environment may allow these storms to persist into the morning and have the potential to produce marginally severe hail, wind gusts of up to 70mph, and a sheared environment brings the risk of isolated tornadoes which will be enhanced through the morning as another trough moves through. A possible sting-jet has also been identified on the southern flank of the cyclone, currently lying to the west of the UK. This may bring strong straight line wind gusts of up to 70 mph in southwest Scotland during the morning.

This situation will continue to be monitored.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

[Liam J]

vicious looking storm now moving towards us, i thought bellmullet would be alot windier at present but i think the storm is just going to be moving over ireland over the next few hours, gusts touching 60mph over western ireland now.

gfs 00z has kept the intensity of the storm of not slightly more intense. expect very heavy hail and thunder showers with this system and squally gusts over 70mph with damage, we dont need anymore rain here in cumbria and its not looking good and with the trees sitting in saturated ground with severe gales, not a good combination....

Edited November 22, 2009 by james12

[Liam J]

met eireann severe weather warning gusts of 100-130kmh (60-80mph) with storm 10 winds in coastal waters

[Liam J]

metcheck updated severe weather warning, severe gales up to 75mph gusts and squally showers, hazardous conditions and further flooding

bellmullet gust at 10z 83mph

met office?! dear me....

Edited November 22, 2009 by james12

[Snowyowl9]

This does look a potent storm still and it`s only hours away.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn121.png

Pretty quiet here yet as expected,just very wet/showery.

Gusty last night in the heavy showers.

This is the storm of the year if it comes off just what Cookie wants to see.

Edited November 22, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[johnholmes]

metcheck updated severe weather warning, severe gales up to 75mph gusts and squally showers, hazardous conditions and further flooding

bellmullet gust at 10z 83mph

met office?! dear me....

James-why don't you read their warnings page-it mentions gusts to 70mph they have a flash for N Ireland rainfall.

I complain if they get it wrong and that as an ex forecaster with them but a bit of credit when its valid would not go amiss.

as to our own Alert-its about right-winds as I said last night could be tweaked 5-10mph for the more exposed parts.

Currently I'm watching how the pressure changes affect the low-IF it seems necessary I'll amend our alert?

[Liam J]

James-why don't you read their warnings page-it mentions gusts to 70mph they have a flash for N Ireland rainfall.

I complain if they get it wrong and that as an ex forecaster with them but a bit of credit when its valid would not go amiss.

as to our own Alert-its about right-winds as I said last night could be tweaked 5-10mph for the more exposed parts.

Currently I'm watching how the pressure changes affect the low-IF it seems necessary I'll amend our alert?

sorry john, just read there updated warnings for cumbria 60mph gusts and in excess of 70mph on exposeds coasts

[PEMBS PIRATE]

[Zenarcher]

Very heavy rain here today with gusts of 55mph. Wind now easing down and rain easing off too. Pressure here down to 965mb the low is right over me.

Edited November 22, 2009 by weathermaster

[Zenarcher]

12z,

Seems to have changed the path of it just slightly more south for my area. 6z had 55mph for Wednesday now showing about 48mph on the 12z run. To sum it up a slight downgrade for the Western Isles but a upgrade for Southwestern parts.

[grab my graupel]

Wind getting going here with the strongest gust, within the last hour, around 50mph

[Liam J]

very windy here now, the roof is creaking and the chimmney is screaming in the gusts nasty night...

tuesday into wednesday is more like it a powerful atlantic storm, giving gusts 70-80mph possible 90mph but thats a few days away yet