Storm discussion: including convective possibilities

[pyrotech]

Any webcams in Ireland or Northern Ireland looking over the rivers that someone can post here?

[The PIT]

Well carol K briefly mentioned rainfall amounts and now down to 80mm from 200mm.

Away from the North west the wind is the talking feature. We've had 50 mph gusts nothing special and an average of 26mph to 30 mph. Local forecast said strengthening during the day but then they said windy all day yesterday which it wasn't.

[Coast]

In amongst all the high winds, rain and flooding, they still want to throw more weather at us:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 19 Nov 2009 06:00 to Fri 20 Nov 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 18 Nov 2009 22:06

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

In the wake if an intense short-wave rough, a broad high amplifies over Europe. A weak cut-off low will move eastward across Iberia, while another long-wave trough approaches west of Europe. It will affect the British Isles late in the period. At lower levels, relatively warm air masses spread into western, central, and northern Europe, and cool low levels will likely lead to stable conditions.

DISCUSSION

Ireland

At the end of the period, some thunderstorms may spread into Ireland in the range of the trough axis of the approaching Atlantic trough. Latest models do not expect very strong low-level vertical wind shear and only marginal CAPE, limiting the chance of organised convection significantly.

TORRO will probably release an update later in the morning, UKASF have been quiet for a few days now.

21st OWS have this area of thunderstorm potential coming in from the Atlantic for tomorrow:

and winds:

Their UKMO interpretation has this for us today:

GFS based charts show it all coming in through the day into tomorrow:

Expected and latest status:

Lots going on and a busy few days ahead with some very interesting and potentially dangerous weather by the looks of it. Keep safe peeps!

[Jane Louise]

Thanks Coast Looking rather nasty for some.

[jimben]

http://www.newsandst...erPath=/1.50001 Crisis meeting held re Cumbria weather

[dogs32]

http://www.newsandst...erPath=/1.50001 Crisis meeting held re Cumbria weather

“Rather than an ordinary severe weather event, we’re looking at an extreme weather event, which is a much rarer breed.

sounds nasty mate...

going to some major issues if this goes on

Severe weather warnings have been issued in Cumbria as people brace themselves for flooding, with 200mm (7.9in) of rain possible in areas.

People in north-west England and south-west Scotland face a high risk of their homes being damaged by flooding, the Environment Agency is warning.

The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings, with up to 250mm of rain (9.8in) possible on higher ground.

Edited November 19, 2009 by dogs32

[Coast]

Not sure what the 'reliable time frame' is with these set of conditions, but Saturday night into Sunday morning is starting to stack up to something:

More interest for Tornado fans?

[dogs32]

This weekend storm potential continues to simmer just below the point of being sure of an extreme wind event -- and I could give a plug to the lowly GEM which has been showing about the same evolution all week, and not that different from the latest (18z) GFS.

The key is no doubt how far east the low centre will drift from 12z Friday to 12z Saturday once the current active system fades and gives the stage to the newly arriving shot of energy dropping southeast from northern Labrador (eastern Canada) into the broad trough in mid-Atlantic.

This is in very general terms a perfect recipe for a major storm, to have a strong jet held in place while a new energy centre replaces a deep but steady-state one. The climatology of deep storms in general seems to adopt this sequence.

From the 18z GFS you would have to say that any "downgrade" from yesterday's extreme wind potential is only slight enough to reduce the potential damage from widespread or even catastrophic, to limited and relatively minor. That's quite an improvement, but not to the point where severe potential is off the table, and then as Paul Sherman noted a while back, this is a time of year when the right dynamics can unleash a lot of tornadic cells as well as the system gradient winds.

We also have a strong front approaching here on the west coast of Canada, should be seeing it pass around 09z with 60 knot gusts possible. The jet stream seems to be circling the hemisphere in a very angry fashion this month.

i found this extremely interesting from Roger last n ight for the weekend...mind boggling

[MAF]

i found this extremely interesting from Roger last n ight for the weekend...mind boggling

i actually heard the phrase "perfect storm" on the radio this morning

[Schnee]

Looks nasty on the Meto radar. The rain band isn't moving much, if at all.

How's Ireland coping?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

http://www.newsandst...erPath=/1.50001 Crisis meeting held re Cumbria weather

Atrocious weather And yet more strong winds and heavy rain expected for the weekend

Will be extremely glad and grateful when this truly awful weather pattern finally shifts. Putting aside my obvious partiality to snow - just some calm crisp winter days would be a godsend!

[SalopWatcher]

The River Severn In Shrewsbury has aready just started to flood today with the main car parks closed, but the advice is this is just the start and things will get a whole lot worse at the weekend. Having looked at some of the posts and charts above I can see why. Living about 200 meters away from the Severn (although up above the 100 year flood line (hopefully)) these events always worry me.

[Schnee]

Just wondering something....

If all that rain was Snow, how much would it dump?

[jello]

getting a little flooding here. drains overflowing in back garden see pictures. Awful smell yukk

The waters also actually lifted and moved paving slaps

[The PIT]

Rainfall in the Northwest easing off as predicted this morning now waiting for the next pulse. Unless of course netweather radar is being iffy.

Trying to find actual rainfall figures. Amazingly this isn't listed on this page http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/

Anyone know where I can get recorded values from.

Edited November 19, 2009 by The PIT

[Brian McGrath]

Looks nasty on the Meto radar. The rain band isn't moving much, if at all.

How's Ireland coping?

Hi Stelmar

Things here in Ireland especially in the West have reached crisis point, all roads into and out of Galway including main roads are flooded houses and business premises are flooded and people are unable to get to work due the roads being flooded,in the surrounding counties rivers have burst their banks as the water continues to rise, 4 young girls from the University in Galway were killed when their car struck a truck, weather poor visibilty and floods getting part of the blame. This morning local councils are saying they can do no more as the rain has been constant since Tuesday evening and there is no where to pump the water too. To add to all this the Irish Met now are giving us Storm warnings for the weekend which could see violent winds hit us and no respite for next week, with all this rain and wind trees are now starting to fall.I will try to get some pics and post them.

Latest Radar of rain over Ireland

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Brian McGrath

[Schnee]

Hi Stelmar

Things here in Ireland especially in the West have reached crisis point, all roads into and out of Galway including main roads are flooded houses and business premises are flooded and people are unable to get to work due the roads being flooded,in the surrounding counties rivers have burst their banks as the water continues to rise, 4 young girls from the University in Galway were killed when their car struck a truck, weather poor visibilty and floods getting part of the blame. This morning local councils are saying they can do no more as the rain has been constant since Tuesday evening and there is no where to pump the water too. To add to all this the Irish Met now are giving us Storm warnings for the weekend which could see violent winds hit us and no respite for next week, with all this rain and wind trees are now starting to fall.I will try to get some pics and post them.

Latest Radar of rain over Ireland

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp.

Wow, that's nasty. Take care over there.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Stelmer

[jello]

Gardaí have warned motorists to exercise caution on the roads, urging drivers to make sure they have enough time to stop and to use their lights, even in daylight hours, due to reduced visibility.

Southwesterly gales, torrential rain and thunderstorms caused flooding in the west, with the river Corrib and tributaries bursting banks in several parts of Galway city and county.

Mayo and Roscommon have also been affected by the severe weather, which has been attributed to unseasonably high sea temperatures.

Gardaí braved wind and rain to perform traffic duty throughout Galway city and surrounds from early yesterday, as parts of the N17 between Galway and Loughgeorge on the Tuam road proved to be impassable.

Flooding also affected houses and reduced traffic to one lane at Two Mile Ditch near Castlegar outside Galway, while Crow Street in Gort was also underwater.

The N17 was also closed between Milltown and Ballindine on the Galway-Mayo border for most of the day, as Garda teams examined the scene of Tuesday night’s road crash which claimed the lives of four students and seriously injured a fifth student.

Galway City Council and County Council teams worked through Tuesday night to try and alleviate flooding, which affected part of the N59 route between the city and Moycullen. Walls were knocked and ditches dug on the N17 in an effort to reduce water levels, and pumping was also applied.

Galway County Council acting director of services Evan Molloy said drainage systems were not able to cope and there was “nowhere for water to go” at outfall points. “We are depending on the rain to ease,” he said.

Edited November 19, 2009 by jello

[Snowman15]

Don't know what all the fuss is about! its nice blue skies in Dorset! - Just pretty gusty! - Rainfall doesnt look good up north though!

Can the south of England expect much from any storms at the weekend like last weekend?

[dogs32]

wow Jello...looking like it might get worse before it gets better

closed

A6 Cumbria - Closed both ways due to flooding between Kendal Town Centre and Shap, in Kendal

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 10:10

high A593 Coniston

both ways at B5285 Hawkshead Old Road closed

A593 Cumbria - Closed both ways due to flooding near B5285 Hawkshead Old Road, in Coniston

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 10:20

high A591 Windermere

both ways between A592 Rayrigg Road and A66 closed

A591 Cumbria - Closed both ways due to flooding between Cook's House Corner and Keswick, in Windermere

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 10:10

high A591 Keswick

both ways between A66 and A595 closed

A591 Cumbria - Closed both ways due to flooding between Crosthwaite Roundabout and Bothel, in Keswick

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 10:35

high A595 Duddon Bridge

both ways at Smithy Lane closed

A595 Cumbria - Closed both ways due to flooding near Smithy Lane, in Duddon Bridge

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 10:12

Abbey Bridge Road Lanercost

both ways at Lanercost open affecting all driving lanes

Cumbria - Abbey Bridge Road just passable due to flooding at Lanercost, in Lanercost

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 10:28

normal A592 Ullswater

both ways between B5320 and A5091 Park Brow open affecting all driving lanes

A592 Cumbria - Just passable due to flooding between Pooley Bridge and A5091 Park Brow, in Ullswater

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 10:53

normal A66 Temple Sowerby

both ways at B6412 Station Road open affecting all driving lanes

A66 Cumbria - Just passable due to flooding near B6412 Station Road, in Temple Sowerby

Last updated: 19th November 2009 at 11:06

normal A5086 Goat Brow Cockermouth

both ways between Crown Street and A594 open affecting all driving lanes

A5086 Cumbria - Goat Brow just passable due to flooding between Town Centre and Papcastle, in Cockermouth

Edited November 19, 2009 by dogs32

[BrickFielder]

It is worth watching out for a potential trough sunday morning crossing the UK which might give some tornadic cells for western coastal areas. Lancashire, cumbria and merseyside could be in the firing line in the early hours of sunday. Limiting factors are likely to be low level instability which will need higher sea temperatures to keep low lapse rates up.

[Coast]

Can the south of England expect much from any storms at the weekend like last weekend?

Hard to say at the moment, I suspect it may be more a more Ireland/Midlands/Northerly biased event this weekend, but you need to keep up with the NW forecasters blogs (+ individual thread analysis from the likes of John Holmes, Nick F, Brickfielder and more knowledgeable members here) and the NW warnings as we progress through the next 48 hours.

netweather.tv

[dogs32]

doesn anyone have any rain totals for Parts of Ireland or parts of The North

[The PIT]

Forecast going pretty well today so far. Warm and dry with increasing winds. Now averaging 33mph max gust 51mph We may squeeze a sixty later.

Nice if I could get hold of some rainfall figures for the regions.

[Markh737]

Its bone dry here in Darlington, looks like the Pennines are keeping the wet stuff to the west, very windy though.