Super Typhoon Nida

[Cookie]

down to a tropical storm

[Somerset Squall]

Nida continues it's slow wind down, with intensity falling to 65kts currently. The eye has all but dissapeared and the slanted look to the convection indicates that the shear present is finally having more of an impact on Nida. Further slow weakening will occur as shear remains moderate and sea temps slowly decrease further. Nida should transition to a weak extratropical cyclone in about 48hrs time.

The track forecasts now favour the previously more unlikely scenario highlighted above (ie. the recurve northeastwards) as the ridge to the east shrinks eastwards and a trough rapidly approaches from the west. Nida is expected to survive long enough to become extratropical now, contrary to the previous forecast. It's interesting to note however, that previously JTWC indicated a westward track and JMA the northeasterly track- now JTWC are indicating the northeastward track and JMA bizarrely insist on a westward track until dissipation. However, most models are insisting now that the trough should send Nida northeastwards into the mid-lattitude westerlies.

[Somerset Squall]

The forecast for Nida has completely changed again. Forecasting the breakdown of Nida has been really difficult due to the steering environment being so complex. But shear has had a big role in the latest change. It has increased dramatically overnight, stripping the convection to the northeast of the increasingly shallow LLC. intensity has been reduced to 55kts but I think this is too generous. Because Nida is a shallow, weak system, it appears it will duck under the trough and will not be sent northeastwards. Instead, Nida will push southwestwards in the northeasterly low level flow until dissipation, which will occur sooner rather than later.

[Cookie]

nothing much at all left of Nida, shear really rampent on the Southwest side.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie, the LLC has now been destroyed and all that is left of Nida is an open trough with a little convecton running along the line. The remnants will likely be absorbed into the developing invest 97W to the southeast.