Model Output Discussion - Sunday 20:35--->

[WhiteXmas]

Fantastic run by the looks of things from the GFS especially in FI on the 23rd but who knows how that will turn out in the end! This is going to have an effect on the white christmas chances update today I would say!

[phil nw.]

12z pressure ens.for Iceland

http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20091207/12/prmslReyjavic.png

An indication of higher confidence of pressure rising in a few days.the mean much higher than 00z.

[guitarnutter]

Bad news, the JMA is having none of it

Cancel the sledge orders, it's going to be a long winter

Edited December 7, 2009 by guitarnutter

[Geordiesnow]

Good runs this afternoon once again BUT we were in this position yesterday and looked what happened after that so champagne is firmly on ice as far as i am concerned.

Also, no cold spell with the risk of snow is nailed on until we see the high go up North so we could be waiting until Wednesday or Thursday at least before we know an easterly might set in or not. Once we know for sure that the high can link up with the Arctic high, then we can perhaps start thinking about easterlies and how long they last etc.

I had a scare when i saw the UKMO 120 hour chart and was thinking oh no! but we get away with it, it would appear.

Gutternutter - I'm not sure what this morning's JMA shown but i remember that yesteday's 12Z JMA shown the cold not making us. Aslong as the main models show the cold then i am not too concerned but as i said yesterday, you can have the good side of the shortwave and the ugly side of the shortwave. JMA 12Z is certainly showing the ugly side of it.

Edited December 7, 2009 by Geordiesnow

[Cloud 10]

Great runs from gfs and ukmo this evening,the mean pressure gets above 1020mb up over iceland.

Lets hope the ecm operational comes back on board in about an hours time,otherwise it will be sent to bed with no supper !

[Harsh Climate]

Bad news, the JMA is having none of it

Cancel the sledge orders, it's going to be a long winter

That chart has +5 to +8hpa over the british isles.... Somehow that isnt very plausible..

[snowmadchrisuk]

Bad news, the JMA is having none of it

Cancel the sledge orders, it's going to be a long winter

That's yesterdays

[The PIT]

LOL a moderated beats from the east returns. A cold run through FI land. the ulitmate xmas tease ???

[Anti-Mild]

Bad news, the JMA is having none of it

Cancel the sledge orders, it's going to be a long winter

Ah yes, the mighty JMA. I'm sorry but pitted against the GFS and the UKMO the JMA is exposed as a bit of a comedy model!

ECM should start rolling out soon, hopefully with an evolution closer to that of the GFS.

[Altostratus]

The UKMO is less progressive than the GFS and looks to me like it could go either way: sink or fully retrogress to GL. It is, as Nick said, fraught with danger. The GFS does seem quite bullish about this one and is has been consistent for a few consecutive runs. However, we can’t read too much into this – we’ve seen this pattern with the GFS before, only for it to back away completely. The ECM will be interesting.

[Nick L]

The ECM is pretty crucial tonight. If it sticks to its guns then I think the ECM is most likely to be right as we have seen so many times in the past.

Edited December 7, 2009 by nick2702

[Snowmad79]

The UKMO is less progressive than the GFS and looks to me like it could go either way: sink or fully retrogress to GL. It is, as Nick said, fraught with danger. The GFS does seem quite bullish about this one and is has been consistent for a few consecutive runs. However, we can't read too much into this we've seen this pattern with the GFS before, only for it to back away completely. The ECM will be interesting.

Ive just reviewed that UKmo run on the Wetter site and im still slightly nervous as to what that LP is going to do. It makes me laugh my bum off becuase no matter where the PV is it still has a nasty habit of wanting to spank us with its Shortwave energy

Edited December 7, 2009 by Snowmad79

[MR EXTREMES]

The UKMO is less progressive than the GFS and looks to me like it could go either way: sink or fully retrogress to GL. It is, as Nick said, fraught with danger. The GFS does seem quite bullish about this one and is has been consistent for a few consecutive runs. However, we can't read too much into this – we've seen this pattern with the GFS before, only for it to back away completely. The ECM will be interesting.

but should you really put your money on ukmo when ecm is the model most respected if you get 2 models like the gfs and ecm backing what people are hoping for within the reliable time frame then id know which id back.

thats coming from mr pessimistic.

[guitarnutter]

Ah yes, the mighty JMA. I'm sorry but pitted against the GFS and the UKMO the JMA is exposed as a bit of a comedy model!

I have to admit, it was a tongue in cheek comment ( a gold star for those who noticed!) But lets just keep a level head while those around are losing theirs. There's still a long way to go before a cold easterly is definately on the cards. I for one will only get excited when the event is so close even the WMC Moscow is picking it up!

[Mark Bayley]

I have to admit, it was a tongue in cheek comment ( a gold star for those who noticed!) But lets just keep a level head while those around are losing theirs. There's still a long way to go before a cold easterly is definately on the cards. I for one will only get excited when the event is so close even the WMC Moscow is picking it up!

I think that model has lost the plot

NOGAPS and GME also good tonight, so i would not worry about the JMA. I really hope the ECM is good!

So far tonights its a good GFS, Good UKMO, Good esembles, Good NOGAPS and Good GME

Can track it here

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

Edited December 7, 2009 by mark bayley

[snowmadchrisuk]

I have to admit, it was a tongue in cheek comment ( a gold star for those who noticed!) But lets just keep a level head while those around are losing theirs. There's still a long way to go before a cold easterly is definately on the cards. I for one will only get excited when the event is so close even the WMC Moscow is picking it up!

I can't see -20 850's over us in 3 days time ... can you ?

[Duane S.]

The METO SW is a bit of a worry IMO. Obviously it could well be a big bonus in that it will aid the drive of cold weather down to our shores but it certainly sprung up out of nowhere on the METO and we need to keep our beady eyes on it, however it's certainly not a spoiler in its current guise. Personally I say I will go with the slower evolution, no shortwave version, less risk, better for the blood pressure.

The GFS run was dreamland though. Yes it's FI but who hasn't fantasized about winning the lottery or going out with Megan Fox? I think 99% of people here know there is a very great danger that something goes wrong with this setup so let's enjoy the moment before we all start slitting our wrists in 3 days time I say!

The ensembles have started to show the promise at last. However, I fully expect them take a big tumble in the next day or so. Watch that space.

First Xmas I am going to be abroad for yonks but Northern France maybe even better placed for fun and games come then so not all bad.

All in all a VERY positive day BUT it could all be wiped out IF the ECM puts in a stinker in a mo.

Still a long way to go but witrh every day that passes with these charts showing so our chances increase.

Edited December 7, 2009 by s4lancia

[WhiteXmas]

I have to admit, it was a tongue in cheek comment ( a gold star for those who noticed!) But lets just keep a level head while those around are losing theirs. There's still a long way to go before a cold easterly is definately on the cards. I for one will only get excited when the event is so close even the WMC Moscow is picking it up!

We have our very own Rudyard Kipling! What's the fascination with Meteociel anyway? I don't suppose it is much different to our own model runs......... apart from them being totally wrong :lol:

[Iceberg]

I know it's been said on here already but those 12Z GFS ENS are a massive improvement, for Dorset they show the mean 850 dropping below the -5 for the first time, this with the GFS and METO strongly point towards the cold spell, IF ECM concurs at 120-144 I would put a wintry cold spell at 50%, remember that the verification rate for 144Z is actually 60%, but this has more uncertainty.

If we are still showing this in 24 hrs then it jumps to a whopping 70%, in my book.

[weather eater]

Out to 144hrs I think it’s pretty important for the ECM to stay on board with the GFS, however beyond that is FI and while it would be nice to see a fantastic run from the ECM the FI period is not crucial.

[MR EXTREMES]

cold is looking likely so far.

temps down for london and not far from the big day.

europe cooling off nicely.

[Snowmadsam]

wow what a run!! fingers crossed for ECM!!! :-D lets hope all of this comes off

But lets get hopes up to high but for now lets enjoy!

[Duane S.]

Out to 144hrs I think it’s pretty important for the ECM to stay on board with the GFS, however beyond that is FI and while it would be nice to see a fantastic run from the ECM the FI period is not crucial.

Agree 100%. I would happily forgo an amazing FI on the ECM just for it to keep us on track up to +144

[guitarnutter]

I can't see -20 850's over us in 3 days time ... can you ?

It may be a glitch

We have our very own Rudyard Kipling! What's the fascination with Meteociel anyway? I don't suppose it is much different to our own model runs......... apart from them being totally wrong :lol:

I often get called Mr Kipling, either for my brilliant short stories, or for my large scale cake consumption.

GWO:

[D KARLSON]

Yept still along way to go before we should start getting exited ,as weve all been bitten before and i admit it does take an awful lotof willpower to stop yourself getting carried away ,dont forget theses are crystal balls were looking at not so long ago these types of data did not exist although the BEEB was sometimes able to pick a cold spell from 7 days out.

The facts are we can now at the very least expect a cold spell if not prolonged period of cold weather and yes some places will undoubtebly get some of the whiter stuff, the problem with all this comes is when we all expect a day after tomorrow scenario, patience is a virtue as they say and maybe some of us on the eastern side could get a decent accumulation of snow???????? by this weekend we will know for sure !!!!!

Edited December 7, 2009 by D KARLSON