Cold Spell General Discussion

[Nick L]

Where's Ian Brown tonight? Busy plotting a previously unforeseen chapter in his book perhaps?

"The End of The Modern Era."

Unsuprisingly he acknowledged the possible event, but stated this is "the best event in the modern era" or some rubbish like that. Check the last page of the previous model thread.

If we had an ice age he would still stick by his theory until the bitter end.

Edited December 9, 2009 by nick2702

[dogs32]

Rob Mc on The BBC Weather reluctant to go any further past the Weeek end..

i wonder why

with that twinkle in his eye's...lol

[Mark Bayley]

Unsuprisingly he acknowledged the possible event, but stated this is "the best event in the christmas pudding" or some rubbish like that. Check the last page of the previous model thread.

If we had an ice age he would still stick by his theory until the bitter end.

To be fair i think he has produced some good posts over the past few days, not gone ramping but not dismissed it!

Anyway i better get on with the history mock test revision

[Neilsouth]

The only reason he keeps saying " christmas pudding " is to wind people up and in the hope the word catches on. Even if this happens and we get alot of snow or just deep cold he will still say something like. " It's just a one off in the christmas pudding , it will be getting milder and milder "

[NorthantsSnow]

Unsuprisingly he acknowledged the possible event, but stated this is "the best event in the christmas pudding" or some rubbish like that. Check the last page of the previous model thread.

If we had an ice age he would still stick by his theory until the bitter end.

If the charts verify his December CET prediction is in danger of being the least accurate in the history of weather forecasting.

Maybe it's the "christmas pudding" of LRFs.

Edited December 9, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Bristawl Si]

Problem is when that happens we normaly see rain after the snow as warm air moves in.

Not if the HP block to the north/north east is strong enough Mullender. The lows will get so far north, say Bristol, and then slope back off south/south east and we'll be in snow heaven!

Just like the winters between 78 and 87.

Although i do remember a great blizzard on a Sunday lunchtime/early afternoon 1st weekend in December 1981 (someone on here will know the date). We got hit by an amazing blizzard that dumped about 8 inches on BTL in the space of 4 hours - low pressure system approached from the south west - but it moved thru' by 6 in the eve and the snow turned to rain. By 10 o'clock that eve the roads were awash with water - 8 inches of snow turned to rivers in the space of a couple of hours!

[Just Before Dawn]

Where's Ian Brown tonight? Busy plotting a previously unforeseen chapter in his book perhaps?

"The End of The christmas pudding."

Steady. It hasn't happened yet! B) Lets not tempt Karma eh?

The 12z GFS run did produce some potentially very interesting conditions in Never-never land though. I like the pressure charts around +216hrs

That could potentially create blizzard conditions in North and East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk and Suffolk, and that's not happened in this neck of the woods to my recollection since at least 1995.

Edited December 9, 2009 by Just Before Dawn

[Nights King]

The Midlands isn't the South West tho...

Aye it would apear we need a front to stall over us from the south although there is so much danger i fear with these situations for example. often they make to much progress and end up in midlands with snow turning to rain for anyone south west of m4 corridor area.

Another i have seen a few times is the low just flirts with the south coast just giving us the odd flurry and generally a cold dull day as it moves east through the channel.

Its always a slim chance that set up. Gonna love some hard frost though and we did get an ok spell in febuary i spose although could of been colder.

Edited December 9, 2009 by mullender83

[k19]

Steady. It hasn't happened yet! Lets not tempt Karma eh?

The 12z GFS run did produce some potentially very interesting conditions in Never-never land though. I like this one...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

That's could potentially create blizzard conditions in North and East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk and Suffolk, and that's not happened in this neck of the woods to my recollection since at least 1995.

You cant link to GFS

Edited December 9, 2009 by K.1000

[peterf]

Hello

thought you might turn up lol

[NorthantsSnow]

JBD, to link to a specific frame in the GFS, right-click on the chart and select "Copy Image Location." If you're using Firefox that is. On IE you can still do it but the wording will be slightly different.

[Ben_Cambs]

Before I go back and watch my beloved Arsenal, ECM was stunning, so was the 12z GFS, im in the firing line for snow! Keep calm everyone for the next few days and if the charts are like this on Sunday, then the fun begins!

[LomondSnowstorm]

To be fair to Ian, he is very good at analysing the models, and he did get quite excited about the possible cold spell coming up!

The christmas pudding stuff is a bit annoying, but I do know what he means, and he does get a bit too much stick for it, although I understand that the way he talks about it makes it seem to many like a trend that will continue for many years to come, which annoys me as well as I doubt that will be the case. Back to the cold spell, JH said it was 90% certain to occur, and likely for at least 7 days, so I have a high level of confidence of it occuring, although the details are not nailed on yet.

[Nights King]

Not if the HP block to the north/north east is strong enough Mullender. The lows will get so far north, say Bristol, and then slope back off south/south east and we'll be in snow heaven!

Just like the winters between 78 and 87.

Although i do remember a great blizzard on a Sunday lunchtime/early afternoon 1st weekend in December 1981 (someone on here will know the date). We got hit by an amazing blizzard that dumped about 8 inches on BTL in the space of 4 hours - low pressure system approached from the south west - but it moved thru' by 6 in the eve and the snow turned to rain. By 10 o'clock that eve the roads were awash with water - 8 inches of snow turned to rivers in the space of a couple of hours!

Sorry i am being a little negative. its the only way i am keeping my feet on the ground while there is mounting hysteria all around! Also from past experience i dont feel so utterly let down when it goes pear shaped.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Aye it would apear we need a front to stall over us from the south although there is so much danger i fear with these situations for example. often they make to much progress and end up in midlands with snow turning to rain for anyone south west of m4 corridor area.

Another i have seen a few times is the low just flirts with the south coast just giving us the odd flurry and generally a cold dull day as it moves east through the channel.

Its always a slim chance that set up. Gonna love some hard frost though and we did get an ok spell in febuary i spose although could of been colder.

Yeah, I'd take that event again, with cold staying in charge, so it last 2-3weeks instead of just the one

[Just Before Dawn]

JBD, to link to a specific frame in the GFS, right-click on the chart and select "Copy Image Location." If you're using Firefox that is. On IE you can still do it but the wording will be slightly different.

Cheers NS.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Steady. It hasn't happened yet! Lets not tempt Karma eh?

The 12z GFS run did produce some potentially very interesting conditions in Never-never land though. I like the pressure charts around +216hrs

That could potentially create blizzard conditions in North and East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk and Suffolk, and that's not happened in this neck of the woods to my recollection since at least 1995.

Let's not forget Angus, Fife, East Lothian, Northumberland and Tyneside at +174 onwards:

[cheshire snow]

Speaking to a friend this evening who works at the local gritting station which supplys grit and salt all over the UK

They have had three mile tail backs all day with lorries waiting to get salt to distribute to all local councils within the UK

He reckons within the next 12 days the UK will be under a deep blanket of Snow and they get all there info from the

Met office

C.S

[La Bise]

Good thing those mini-crampons I've ordered have arrived, something tells me the Yorkshire Dales are going to be the place to be next week-end for one of those long hikes in snow...

[jonathon]

people are saying it will get milder for a day or two early next week. i know it will be cold this weekend but i thought the eastly wind was coming next monday? surely anyway if that brief mild spell did come it would fall as snow as the rain meets the cold air?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

For me, Ramping over.

A couple of serious points, from early next week on, we have the potential for very cold weather with, again, the potential for lots of snow. especially for drivers, in this country, that are not used to driving in these conditions.

Without trying to sound like a killjoy, please, please, if you think that we are going to have snow that will drift, DON'T chase it, and tell people to be sensible and if it means losing some time at work, lose it. Better to be poorer than dead.

If anyone loses their life over the next few weeks, either because they were caught in snow, or even couldn't afford the heating, all the people ramping (me included) will need to think long and hard.

For those of us in the know. Get some food in, especially as the 'supply chain' carries 3 days food, if this comes off and I mean IF, there may be people snowed in for a period of time. don't forget to help you neighbours

Sorry if this sounds lecturing....

[snowlover2009]

people are saying it will get milder for a day or two early next week. i know it will be cold this weekend but i thought the eastly wind was coming next monday? surely anyway if that brief mild spell did come it would fall as snow as the rain meets the cold air?

i can not see it being that mild if it is being forecasted. besides this should be in the cold spell discussion.

[NorthantsSnow]

Getting myself in the mood with some cracking webcams coming out of Wisconsin:

http://lakecam.engr.wisc.edu/view/view.shtml

I think it's live as well, despite what the time says!

[snowlover2009]

For me, Ramping over.

A couple of serious points, from early next week on, we have the potential for very cold weather with, again, the potential for lots of snow. especially for drivers, in this country, that are not used to driving in these conditions.

Without trying to sound like a killjoy, please, please, if you think that we are going to have snow that will drift, DON'T chase it, and tell people to be sensible and if it means losing some time at work, lose it. Better to be poorer than dead.

If anyone loses their life over the next few weeks, either because they were caught in snow, or even couldn't afford the heating, all the people ramping (me included) will need to think long and hard.

For those of us in the know. Get some food in, especially as the 'supply chain' carries 3 days food, if this comes off and I mean IF, there may be people snowed in for a period of time. don't forget to help you neighbours

Sorry if this sounds lecturing....

it isnt lecturing at all, great advice, even if the snow doesnt come too bad as what the models are suggesting people should take tha advice on board as it could be very cold and atrocious with the blizzard like conditions as it would be windy too. but still got to get there first.

[Nights King]

For me, Ramping over.

A couple of serious points, from early next week on, we have the potential for very cold weather with, again, the potential for lots of snow. especially for drivers, in this country, that are not used to driving in these conditions.

Without trying to sound like a killjoy, please, please, if you think that we are going to have snow that will drift, DON'T chase it, and tell people to be sensible and if it means losing some time at work, lose it. Better to be poorer than dead.

If anyone loses their life over the next few weeks, either because they were caught in snow, or even couldn't afford the heating, all the people ramping (me included) will need to think long and hard.

For those of us in the know. Get some food in, especially as the 'supply chain' carries 3 days food, if this comes off and I mean IF, there may be people snowed in for a period of time. don't forget to help you neighbours

Sorry if this sounds lecturing....

Just a quick point.... chasing snow drifts in a metro is great fun! not that i can say i have ever done it...