Will It Snow Thread?

[Lewis]

Good Evening,

As we all know over the coming week our weather is going to become much colder. With a cold feed coming from the near continent.

As always this far out can be pure guess work, especially when there's not much agreements with the models, although it's certain they will be snow in places, how much and when is the big question.

I made this thread for you to ask the Question, so the other threads for example "the model" thread can be discussed about pure modeling only.

Lewis' Snow risk charts

I shall update every model that comes out, 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z, UKMO, ECM

Other useful links;

Netweather 5day "Will it snow" charts; http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wisi;sess=

Lewis

Edited December 12, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[LomondSnowstorm]

Fine, I'll go first: Will it snow in Fife?

[Buckster76]

yes - in Norway.

where UK ? Scotland ? S-East ?

[Lewis]

Fine, I'll go first: Will it snow in Fife?

If the current models (ecm) come off, then i can see you getting some snow.

yes - in Norway.

where UK ? Scotland ? S-East ?

Scotland, NE, E, SE england, with the midlands doing well too

[winterfreak]

Will it snow here in Kent?

Whatever the answer i'm not convinced. I've been on for the best part of a week now and it's been consistently 'We'll know by Thursday/Friday/Saturday' and so on. The longer it takes to arrive then the more that it won't actually get here...

Whilst i'd love it to snow, i feel in my heart it'll be a massive poop-sandwich.......

[Mattster1]

If the current models (ecm) come off, then i can see you getting some snow.

how is the west side of the uk and Ireland likely to fare? will it be too mild in the south west and will the precipetation make it any further west than the midlands? such as bristol:)

[chionomaniac]

Hi Lewis,

I have some particular times that I would like to know whether it will snow in Brighton. I wonder could you help?

They are

Monday 14th at 1.00 am

Tuesday 15th at 14.25

Thursday 17th at 9.00 am and also at 13.30.

Friday 18th at 3.30 am

It would really help if you could give me some guidance so that I can change my plans if necessary.

Many thanks,

[Cheese Rice]

Cant we just keep this in the cold spell discussion thread? Don't want to confuse matters.

[Lewis]

Hi Lewis,

I have some particular times that I would like to know whether it will snow in Brighton. I wonder could you help?

They are

Monday 14th at 1.00 am

Tuesday 15th at 14.25

Thursday 17th at 9.00 am and also at 13.30.

Friday 18th at 3.30 am

It would really help if you could give me some guidance so that I can change my plans if necessary.

Many thanks,

I can say for now, you'll be safe Monday and Tuesday.

As for Thursday that's when the weather could change and become very severe for the SE and E parts of the U.K, and with Brighton been on the channel, you could get some lovely showers going.

I'll keep you posted and let you know about Thursday/Friday by Tuesday next week.

Lewis

Will it snow here in Kent?

Whatever the answer i'm not convinced. I've been on for the best part of a week now and it's been consistently 'We'll know by Thursday/Friday/Saturday' and so on. The longer it takes to arrive then the more that it won't actually get here...

Whilst i'd love it to snow, i feel in my heart it'll be a massive poop-sandwich.......

I'll put my house on it that you will get snow in Kent <_<

Enjoy

[cold snap]

Will in snow in Dublin?

[Lewis]

how is the west side of the uk and Ireland likely to fare? will it be too mild in the south west and will the precipetation make it any further west than the midlands? such as bristol:)

I would not like to say with Ireland,

It depends how slack the flow is, if it's pretty slack i cannot see the showers penetrating as far inland. But i can see showers pushing into the Midlands.

Cant we just keep this in the cold spell discussion thread? Don't want to confuse matters.

Valid point, although the Cold Spell discussion is not a 1 liner "will it snow in..." thread. Less work for the mods, and i don't mind answering questions, i enjoy it.

Will in snow in Dublin?

Not too sure, if the ECM verifys you have a better chance than what the other models are showing.

At the moment i cannot call it.

Lewis

[winterfreak]

I'll put my house on it that you will get snow in Kent :lol:

Enjoy

You're a brave man Lewis......<_<

[Ben_Cambs]

Cambridge?

[Nights King]

Somerset/devon/corn??

[Lewis]

Cambridge?

N Yorkshire,E Yorks,Lincs,EA,SE

If you live in any of them areas as current models suggest (ecm) and even the GFS, you will see snow, a lot of people in the model thread are under estimating precipitation levels.

Lewis

Somerset/devon/corn??

50/50 but I'm swaying more to a yes overnight Thursday into Friday.

[Cookie]

isle of lewis?

[Lewis]

isle of lewis?

That's a tricky one, going by the GFS i would say no, as 850 temps are going to be the wrong side of marginal with dew points. Also have to take into account modification from the Atlantic.

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised the start of the following week though;) If the models continue with what they show, you might get a good amount.

Lewis

[katiew]

Will it snow in Leicester?

[steve1971]

no snow here in the next 5days thats laying snow but gona be cold in the wind .might have some rain /mom/tue.

[Lewis]

Will it snow in Leicester?

65% chance

[Cookie]

That's a tricky one, going by the GFS i would say no, as 850 temps are going to be the wrong side of marginal with dew points. Also have to take into account modification from the Atlantic.

I think you'll be pleasantly surprised the start of the following week though;) If the models continue with what they show, you might get a good amount.

Lewis

pesky atlantic.

shame cant stick and outboard moter onto the island and move across into the north sea

[A.J]

It will snow in Stafford....I'm so confident, I'll put Lewis's house on it!

[Lewis]

OK here is my current snow risk chart going by today's runs

I shall update every model that comes out, 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z, UKMO, ECM

Edited December 12, 2009 by Storm Force Lewis

[LomondSnowstorm]

OK here is my current snow risk chart going by today's runs

I shall update every model that comes out, 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z, UKMO, ECM

No chance in eastern Scotland?

[Helvellyn]

i'm in bergen (norway) from the 16th-21st... any chance there?