Tropical Cyclone Mick

[Somerset Squall]

The first TC of the season has formed just north of Fiji. Convection has persisted over an increasingly well defined LLC, prompting the upgrade. Intensity is 35kts. 04P is in a low shear environment, with warm sea surface temps. This will prmote intensification for the next 36hrs. After this, a subtropical ridge will accelerate 04P southeastwards into cooler waters and higher shear. This will lead to weakening and then extratropical transition. 04P is likely to bring very heavy rains and damaging winds to Fiji as it crosses the islands. JTWC are expecting a peak of 55kts.

[Cookie]

Thanks for the update mate

[Snowly does it]

Thread title changed

[Somerset Squall]

04P has strengthened overnight and is now a 45kt tropical cyclone named Mick. Mick is a well organised cyclone with deep convection over the LLC and impressive banding, especially towards the south of the system. Mick is moving south-southeastwards and should bend toward the southeast later today as it begins to travel around the western and southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. This will take Mick over Fiji in the next 24hrs, which could cause some flooding and damaging winds to the islands. Mick has the opportunity to strengthen some more over the next 24hrs as shear remains low, waters warm, and poleward outflow good into the mid-lattitude westerlies to the south. These westerlies will eventually increase shear at around 36hrs, and once Mick clears Fiji the stronger shear and ever decreasing sea temps should allow the cyclone to undergo extratropical transition.

This satellite image shows Mick clearly just northwest of the islands of Fiji:

[Cookie]

Thread title changed

thank you

[Somerset Squall]

Mick has further intensified and is now at 55kts. Mick is maintaining an intense core of convection with some good banding. Mick could strengthen a little more and don't be surprised to see Mick become a cat 1 on the SS scale as there is already hints of an eye on microwave imagery. The cyclone is very near Fiji, and the weather will rapidly deteriorate here tonight. With Mick becoming stronger than expected, there is an increased threat of wind damage as well as flash floods and mudslides.

[Cookie]

[Cookie]

[MAF]

TC Mick

fame at last!

[Somerset Squall]

LOL Mick!

The satellite images Cookie has posted shows Mick continues to develop an eye. I'd put intensity at around 65kts now- but we'll have to wait and see if JTWC agree. Fiji are getting a pasting now either way, with severe gales and torrential rains from Mick's central sense overcast.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, intensity is now 65kts, making Mick a cat 1 on the SS scale. The cyclone is now crossing Fiji, and land interaction has already caused the eye to dissapear in satelitte imgery. Brief re-strengthening may occur once Mick clears Fiji, but the environment then rapidly deteriorates, with high shear and cool sea temps initiating extratropical transition with may be complete as soon as 36hrs away.

[Cookie]

web cams from Fiji

http://www.fijiwebcam.com/

[Somerset Squall]

Mick is accelerating towards the southeast and has collided with about 50kts of shear. This has quickly diminshed most of the convection and distorted the LLC. It's difficult to see this cyclone lasting much longer given this extremely hostile environment. In fact, Mick looks well on the way to being extratropical already.

[Cookie]

not much left like you say

[Somerset Squall]

Mick has dissipated. The cyclone's direct landfall in Fiji caused 3 deaths:

http://www.webcitation.org/5m3RUljMw