In Depth Model Discussion, Analysis and Summaries

[Glacier Point]

Northern blocking and a more southerly-latitude tracking jet, so another 2007 or 2008? I hope to god that is not the case.

What do you think, GP?

Nope.

Absence of the Azores ridge yes, but mid latitude ridges over western Europe set to dominate. I have both 1976 and 1995 in my analogue package.

[bluearmy]

Nope.

Absence of the Azores ridge yes, but mid latitude ridges over western Europe set to dominate. I have both 1976 and 1995 in my analogue package.

the last few naefs runs have to be a lot wrong for the meto 16 dayer to verify. i note todays 12z ecm spread does tend towards a more unsettled look. however, naefs keeps us under a high anomoly through fi to two weeks hence.

[snowlover2009]

Could this qualify as the first "summer is over" post for 2011 - over 4 weeks from the start of meteorolgical summer with the full 3 months of summer ahead of us?!? LOL - only kidding!!

On a more serious note what makes you think that this coming summer will be a poor one? Do you have any evidence - statistical, model related or other to suggest this? Even if we did get a poor summer I certainly cannot see the coming summer being as bad as 2007 as far as rainfall was concerned the summer of 2007 was exceptional and it could be a while until we get another summer as wet as that. If anything, we are overdue a drier and sunnier than average summer especially in the North West were I live. I could not stand another summer like 2007 though and I really hope that you are wrong in your predictions.

Do you base your prediction on the theory that a warm April is more often than not followed by a poor summer? I don't think that can be statistically backed up - as Mr Data and the likes have quoted in the past there have been warm spells in April that have been followed by poor summers like 2007 and 1987 but there have also been warm spells in April that have been followed by decent or very good summers like 1984, 2003 and of course the famous example of 1976 - so I still don't buy that theory.

Yes this summer may turn out either way but I think it is a bit premature to effectively write off the coming summer more than a month before June 1st - yes the NAO may be turning negative but there is plenty of time for things to change in your favour if it is a good summer you are after. If you feel that there are compelling signals for a washout summer please feel free to explain why you think that may be the case.

Luke

TBH I do not know what to think, but I think it is going to be an extreme of summer, whether it is very dry or very wet like 2007 and 2008. But, you are only telling me not to write it off because you want it to be a good summer.

It is an instinct anyway, I think it is more likely to be wet, if may is also very dry, then that would mean we would be in the running for one of the driest springs on record and then it would be unusual to get a very dry summer, it can happen, but again, after a possible record dry spring, the rain has more chance of coming than ongoing dry weather. Although in my eye last summer was the best out of the last 4, it was still not one of the best even after another dry spring. I think, there is the potential for either a good start, then rapidly going downhill or a wet start, then better weather in August.

I do read GPs posts and some others and get some idea of what summer could be like and also look at lrfs, but that is it.

But, no real reason, I think it will be an 'extreme season' for the uk in general, either really dry (coming off a dry winter and spring, which would not be great TBH) or a washout. I think summer will run in the direction of one of those. I am on the fence TBH with you, yesterdays post was a bit out of place.

I may have read too much into the charts, but there is an awful lot of ugly looking blocking and high pressure to the north and it looks awfully scary, reminds me of the you no what summers- LOL. Of course, recently, rain has just kept downgrading near the time.

Edited April 30, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Gavin P]

Nope.

Absence of the Azores ridge yes, but mid latitude ridges over western Europe set to dominate. I have both 1976 and 1995 in my analogue package.

Look like we're going to suffer the same fate as Moscow this year then.... A catatastrophe is on the way for British agriculture.

Edited May 1, 2011 by Gavin P

[Kentish Kiwi]

Look like we're going to suffer the same fate as Moscow this year then.... A catatastrophe is on the way for British agriculture.

Surely a little early to be making such a statement...

[Gavin P]

Surely a little early to be making such a statement...

The statement is based in GP's prediction. A 1976 or 1995 type summer would be a catastrophe for British agriculture, particularly after a spring drought like we're currently experiancing.

Edited May 1, 2011 by Gavin P

[Costa Del Fal]

Dont want to go too ahead of myself or too off topic here but how dry were the Springs of 1976 and 1995? Is 2011 drier, on par etc???

[Weather-history]

Dont want to go too ahead of myself or too off topic here but how dry were the Springs of 1976 and 1995? Is 2011 drier, on par etc???

On the dry side but they don't compare to this spring which is turning out thus far exceptionally dry overall.

[Gavin P]

Dont want to go too ahead of myself or too off topic here but how dry were the Springs of 1976 and 1995? Is 2011 drier, on par etc???

The spring of 1976 was very dry. What made the summer of 1976 so severe was that it came at the end of an extended dry period. The spring and summer of 1975 was very dry. Autumn 1975 was dry (after a wet September) and the winter of 75-76 was very dry. So by the time we got to summer 1976 we were already having an incredible drought.

1995 was differant because that summer came after quite a very wet period. Summer 1992 through to winter 94-95 had a lot of wet months and indeed January and February 1995 were exceptionally wet. Spring 1995 was dry, but not as dry as spring 1976 and 2011.

[snowlover2009]

Look like we're going to suffer the same fate as Moscow this year then.... A catatastrophe is on the way for British agriculture.

realitively off topic, but what would the landscape, grass, fields, look like if it was to be almost as dry as the spring we are having? I mean there would be no fields surely that are proper British green grass? All grass and gardens would be dead.

Edited May 1, 2011 by snowlover2009

[jy]

Yes as a gardener based in Central Southern England i am nervous having seen GPs take on things,he may not be correct but if he is lots of outdoor work will suffer,just the mention of 1976 is enough.

[Terminal Moraine]

I remember the summer of 1976 very well, it's the only time I've seen the British landscape resemble the Mediterranean, certainly more so than in the summer of 1995.

Even trees were dying, particularly shallow rooted species such as Beech, and many other species lost their leaves very early as a result of drought stress.

[damianslaw]

The spring of 1976 was very dry. What made the summer of 1976 so severe was that it came at the end of an extended dry period. The spring and summer of 1975 was very dry. Autumn 1975 was dry (after a wet September) and the winter of 75-76 was very dry. So by the time we got to summer 1976 we were already having an incredible drought.

1995 was differant because that summer came after quite a very wet period. Summer 1992 through to winter 94-95 had a lot of wet months and indeed January and February 1995 were exceptionally wet. Spring 1995 was dry, but not as dry as spring 1976 and 2011.

Yes summer 1976 came at the end of a very dry period indeed which enhanced its severity. Spring 95 marked a change in conditions after two very wet years, thereafter we saw 2 very dry years - the drought conditions persisted right through to spring 97 and then we saw another marked change to very wet weather in the summer. Could we about to see similiar conditions to those two summers i.e. 76, 95? difficult to call, it is the heat of the summer and evaporations which has a real influence on the rate of drought. However, this year we have seen the warmth starting vert early and evaporation is already starting to take hold.

I don't know what this summer may bring, however, unlike April, I do look for clues in May as the weather now does in my opinion have a much greater influence on synoptics for the summer - recent Mays have been a real mixed bag reflecting the poor mixed summers which have followed - whereas recent Aprils have been preety dry sunny and warm - not resembling the summer.

[Don]

I have both 1976 and 1995 in my analogue package.

It looks like we could well break a few more monthly records this year then going by those analogues. It could really be pay back time for our recent cooler period which doesn't suit me but there you go!

[snowlover2009]

It looks like we could well break a few more monthly records this year then going by those analogues. It could really be pay back time for our recent cooler period which doesn't suit me but there you go!

I said the same thing on TWO a couple of minutes ago. I reckon we could be in for another record breaking month this year, whether it be hot, cold, or wet. I mean to get a recording breaking cold december on the back of the warmest ever april and it only being in spring, I think we could see some big records months being slashed. Anyone agree?

Edited May 1, 2011 by snowlover2009

[coldweatherfan]

i hope we get a reord cool month for summer

Edited May 1, 2011 by coldweatherfan

[geoffw]

i hope we get a reord cool month for summer

grow up

[snowlover2009]

i hope we get a reord cool month for summer

Dream on. Charts not showing those 'raw easterlies' in FI now, so you move onto something else and start with more nonsense.

Edited May 2, 2011 by snowlover2009

[geoffw]

Dream on. Charts not showing those 'raw easterlies' in FI now, so you move onto something else and start with more nonsense.

mate ignore him, hes an idiot!

gp, any news on the latest teleconections?

[Glacier Point]

gp, any news on the latest teleconections?

Significantly, all major global models are programming a strong MJO wave to gain momentum in the western Pacific, and there's already a lot of cloudiness and thunderstorm activity there right now. This should help to increase the pressure on La Nina and send out a signal for anomalous mid latitude ridges as relative angular momentum edges upwards for the first half of the month and the GWO is nudged towards a phase 3-4 type evolution.

Basically a signal for the ridge to our east to remain in situ, joined with height rises over western Europe and the mean trough aligned to our west in the eastern Atlantic. That's a warm pattern, probably sustained for some time.

The significance of the tropical convection is that this MJO wave was in my book a weak affair with the next one in mid to late June the stronger. The fact that it is occuring relatively shortly after the last wave and of a similar forecast magnitude suggests that the atmosphere is trying to resurrect itself from the La Nina type base state that has been around since the late summer of 2010. This augers extremely well for a warm, settled spell of weather during June and into July.

[damianslaw]

Significantly, all major global models are programming a strong MJO wave to gain momentum in the western Pacific, and there's already a lot of cloudiness and thunderstorm activity there right now. This should help to increase the pressure on La Nina and send out a signal for anomalous mid latitude ridges as relative angular momentum edges upwards for the first half of the month and the GWO is nudged towards a phase 3-4 type evolution.

Basically a signal for the ridge to our east to remain in situ, joined with height rises over western Europe and the mean trough aligned to our west in the eastern Atlantic. That's a warm pattern, probably sustained for some time.

The significance of the tropical convection is that this MJO wave was in my book a weak affair with the next one in mid to late June the stronger. The fact that it is occuring relatively shortly after the last wave and of a similar forecast magnitude suggests that the atmosphere is trying to resurrect itself from the La Nina type base state that has been around since the late summer of 2010. This augers extremely well for a warm, settled spell of weather during June and into July.

Interesting thoughts. Whilst I don't claim to know much about the MJO etc, the pattern you are suggesting is one with lots more high pressure dominated synoptics with strong heights near and over the country and more importantly just to our west which will help pull in some very warm air from the south ahead of any atlantic trough features trying to take hold - very much what we have now with extensive periods of dry sunny warm weather and temporary breakdowns thanks to troughing from the west from time to time meaning thundery humid outbreaks.

It suggests more neutral ENSO conditions which usually converts to mid atlantic ridges trending to be high towards Greenland killing chances of westerlies taking hold.

Will be interesting to see whether things pan out like this - great news for sun warm lovers but dire for those wanting rain - I fear a summer of droughts and hosepipe bans if the pattern verifies as like.

By the way did you suspect in any way this April would have turned out as it did? It has surprised most I think very much like Dec 2010 did - we are being spoilt with some very exceptional spells of weather at present all set against what has to be said a very weak atlantic since the infamous and equally exceptionally wet spell of Nov 2009 - something odd happened to the atlantic during that month it seems..

[Jack Wales]

The significance of the tropical convection is that this MJO wave was in my book a weak affair with the next one in mid to late June the stronger. The fact that it is occuring relatively shortly after the last wave and of a similar forecast magnitude suggests that the atmosphere is trying to resurrect itself from the La Nina type base state that has been around since the late summer of 2010. This augers extremely well for a warm, settled spell of weather during June and into July.

Hi GP,

Yes I note the last MJO wave has placed the Nina base state under pressure for the first time since last summer. Notably ENSO+ conditions are now being observed in ENSO regions 1 & 2 which will undoubtedly propagate westwards in the coming months.

The one fly in the ointment (as I see it) is the upcoming transition to an easterly QBO, do you think this will have a greater bearing on synoptics as we proceed through July and August?

[geoffw]

Significantly, all major global models are programming a strong MJO wave to gain momentum in the western Pacific, and there's already a lot of cloudiness and thunderstorm activity there right now. This should help to increase the pressure on La Nina and send out a signal for anomalous mid latitude ridges as relative angular momentum edges upwards for the first half of the month and the GWO is nudged towards a phase 3-4 type evolution.

Basically a signal for the ridge to our east to remain in situ, joined with height rises over western Europe and the mean trough aligned to our west in the eastern Atlantic. That's a warm pattern, probably sustained for some time.

The significance of the tropical convection is that this MJO wave was in my book a weak affair with the next one in mid to late June the stronger. The fact that it is occuring relatively shortly after the last wave and of a similar forecast magnitude suggests that the atmosphere is trying to resurrect itself from the La Nina type base state that has been around since the late summer of 2010. This augers extremely well for a warm, settled spell of weather during June and into July.

what are your thoughts for the month of may?

and july and august?

[johnholmes]

what are your thoughts for the month of may?

and july and august?

This augers extremely well for a warm, settled spell of weather during June and into July.

is what GP posted

Edited May 4, 2011 by johnholmes

[geoffw]

This augers extremely well for a warm, settled spell of weather during June and into July.

is what GP posted

into july but does that mean all of july? no mention of august or may?