Ice Free Arctic

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8437703.stm

Methane release is one of the worst 'side effects' of loss of ice cover both for the permafrost in the shallow shelf seas off Siberia but also for the land based permafrost. When a coast is 'ice free' the impact can be felt up to 1,500km inland which just about encompasses ALL of the northern permafrost.

As the article points out you have the first whammy of 'super greenhouse warming' but then ,as the methane breaks down, you get the second whammy of CO2 greenhouse warming.

For those who think the loss of ice is inconsequential please read up on methane release.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.scienceda...91230183301.htm

http://www.scienceda...00111102536.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2008/0402-inside_the_clouds.htm

Edited January 13, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Ice free UK could be a while off...

[sunny starry skies]

If this thread is not to go OT, then fanciful speculation about warming due to atmospheric changes should be avoided. The causes for the reduction in (summertime, Arctic) sea ice are not known, expected, predictable or quantifiable (so far), and any link to atmospheric carbon dioxide changes are not demonstrable. We do know how the atmospheric carbon dioxide trends have been changing in a regular fashion for the last half century, but the response of the global or local temperatures have neither been dependent on those figures, predictable nor regular. Those with beliefs that properties of increased quantities of carbon dioxide have definite real-world effects, should at least wait until those effects can be reliably demonstrated in the real world, before casting their self-ordained superior prescience on the rest of humanity.

The causes, and the relative strengths of the key drivers, are pretty well known now - you can't explain the climate of the past 100 years in detail without the forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, but you can explain the same climate with GHGs. That's also supported by basic physics. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is changing in a regular fashion - upwards. The link is demonstrable as the regions predicted to warm the most are the Arctic regions. They are now demonstrably warming the most, and not surprisingly the sea ice is demonstrably thinning and shrinking in response.

Given that we now understand the relative strengths of each of the drivers of the climatic system (solar, orbital, GHG, volcanic, ENSO-type/PDO etc), we can make good predictions for the future, given the changes in driver strength over time. At present, both solar and PDO are very negative, and this has offset the warming of GHGs - any suggestions as to what will happen when solar activity increases and ENSO/PDO return to a more positive state?

Back on topic:

http://atoc.colorado...tal_EOS2005.pdf

This article states that "there is no palaeoclimatic evidence for a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the past 800 millennia." Without doing a lot more reading I can't refute that. Whoever was saying that the climate has been warmer during the Holocene - in parts of the Arctic it was indeed relatively warm in the early to mid-Holocene - the reason being that the key driver of the time (orbital) was close to a peak. We're now closer to an orbital 'minimum', hence there must be another forcing that is causing warming and reducing the sea ice in the Arctic. That's pretty clearly anthropogenic GHGs - solar, volcanic or ENSO/PDO can't explain the trend. If the various interglacials of the late Quaternary have failed to remove summer sea ice, then we are indeed heading into uncharted territory, where the only reason we would be going into that uncharted territory is because we are here to change the climate.

And I can't say I like the concept of the release of more methane and CO2 from the seabed and permafrosted bogs either...

sss

Edit: Chris, you're dismissing Dev just as much too. If you think there's no good evidence for Arctic ice retreat or it's consequences, you should read the literature, otherwise you sound like your head's in the sand.

Edited January 13, 2010 by sunny starry skies

[Gray-Wolf]

And why the most negative AO we've ever measured? and why have our new 'A-Train' of sats witnessed a 50% reduction in cloud cover ? and why are storms tracking ever north and penetrating into the Arctic Basin as never witnessed before? and what of the deep water mixing this summer 'open water' allows across the artic basin? and what of the Arctic Amplification we've measured since 02'? and what of the muddying of Arctic waters by permafrost outflow off Siberia?and what of the shift north of the oceanic 10C isotherm?and what of the drastic coastal erosion in the areas once protected by sea ice?and what of the increase in methane release across the northern permafrost? and what of the northerly shift of the Jet? and what of the tend away from trilobal to bi-lobal atmospheric set up over the pole? and what of the 'rotten ice where we thought we measured 'sound' thick perennial?

Seems like an awful lot of 'co-incidental' natural phases all occuring at once dontcha think? and this set against concerns that we have shifted the kilter of the climate system.

Where would a betting man put his dosh?

[Gray-Wolf]

Chris, I feel we need to be mindful of others rights to substantiated opinion. There is nothing 'fanciful' about the changes in circulation we currently witness across the Arctic and ,the fact they are new/novel would suggest we need use our imaginations to map out their implications.

The 'Barber Discoveries' in Sept. 09' (and subsequent paper) would suggest that we will be furnished with a more accurate ice type map of the Artic basin some point soon. If the remnant 'old perennial' to the north of Svalbard is a mix of rotten ice and old perennial then it's removal from the Arctic will be rapid as the rotten ice ablates once beyond Svalbard (as it enters the end of the N.A.D.) leaving only the remnants to flow south down the east coast of Greenland.

Once this historic Arctic ice type is gone we are left with the 'new' 3m max. pack of saline rich ice which is far less durable than the near glacial ice of the old perennial. To me this would mean that only physical position would enable even the thickest ice to survive a summer season. With the lack of 'massive' ice sections the transport around the arctic Gyre will be flowing the fastest we have measured (weather conditions being favourable) and the same with the flush out down the Arctic current.

We were promised a 'ice clogged' NW passage for a couple of years a couple of years ago.Will we see the deep channel open to traffic come late Aug This year?

The other 'new' thing comes off the back of Dr Barbers findings. If the central Arctic holds no 'old perennial' , just 'rotten ice' then it is assessable by all ship types so will we find (once the new charts are published) shipping crossing the central polar regions?

Dr Barber found the new ice type no problem to shipping in the way 30ft thick ice used to and once precedents have been set would we not expect nations to utilise this shortcut to transit East/west without needing Suez or Panama and benefit from the fuel savings to be found there?

If the central Arctic is navigable then what of exploitation of the high arctic? Russia has already planted it's flag on the sea floor of the pole which other nations will lay claim to the region?

With Europe's 'Cryosat' mission on the pad and ready to fly in Feb. more info on the Arctic ice will be available to us all and better assessments as to how close a seasonal Arctic pack we are will be able to be made.

With this summer promising to be heavily influenced by the strong El-Nino in the Pacific (and NOAA promising global climate impacts from it) could this be the last year of large amounts of surviving ice come Sept? One thing is for sure we will have an interesting 8 months in front of us all.

Edited January 19, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2010-01-21-arctic-ice-undersea-cable_N.htm?csp=34&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+usatoday-NewsTopStories+%28News+-+Top+Stories%29

So ,to save 52 milliseconds in transit time they're laying a cable through the NW Passage now the ice has gone.......I suppose time means money but surely????

[BUSHY]

I think that the answer lies here GW. "The company also hopes to link rural Alaska communities to the cable. It has applied for $350 million in federal stimulus money, nearly 5% of that total for broadband grant and loan program, for lines to eight hub communities in western and northern Alaska. The Asia-Europe line does not depend on stimulus money, Ebell said."

[Gray-Wolf]

I think that the answer lies here GW. "The company also hopes to link rural Alaska communities to the cable. It has applied for $350 million in federal stimulus money, nearly 5% of that total for broadband grant and loan program, for lines to eight hub communities in western and northern Alaska. The Asia-Europe line does not depend on stimulus money, Ebell said."

Their coastal communities are spending millions to relocate due to coastal erosion, their buildings/infrastructure is sinking into the mire, their subsistance way of being (to help subsidise the govt. handouts they are forced to exist upon) has all but gone but you think high speed broadband is salve enough????

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1956932,00.html

More confirmation that we are due a set of 'revised' algorithms to measure sea ice by.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://explorersweb.com/polar/news.php?id=19105

It would seem you can't even dare get onto the polar ice this winter it is so messed up. The -ve AO that brought us our cold has lead to a mobile pack all winter and plenty of open water leads meaning ice travel is too dangerous. Even the NW passage is still a mess of mush.

I'm starting to think that we will see a lot of folk on here having to revise their personal view on the state of the arctic come this July as ,if things are so bad right now, the speed of melt will exceed last years up until this point.

Without the help of favourable conditions through July and Aug we may find ourselves closer to an ice free pole this summer than ever before and we may need to start figuring just what this will mean to atmospheric circulation and ocean currents.

With less thickness of ice to melt where will the energy be employed once the pack is open water?

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been wondering as to what type of changes a stirred up Arctic Ocean will bring as compared to the ice capped , unmixed one?

With ever more open water being exposed to wind/wave it is only a matter of time before the top 200m is as mixed up as in any of the oceans and no longer a stratified body (the thermohaline cap of fresh cold water will be mixed with the warm salty waters below) .

Do we see sinking zones within the Arctic Basin and further extensions of Atlantic/pacific warm currents into the basin?

We are told that temperate/subtropical waters are already flushing out the bases of the East Coast Greenland Fjords so will this warmth extend into the basin itself?

The mixing of the cold upper waters in the arctic basin may just lead to a normalised 'flow' of cold dense waters heading down and flowing out of the basin. Was the first stage in an ice covered Arctic Basin the plugging of the downwelling by single season ice that didn't melt out? Is the re-start of the deep Arctic current the death knell of the Arctic we've known?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/technology/Experts+warn+melting+arches/2630193/story.html

It would seem that the collapse of the ice Arches that stem the flow of ice out of the Canadian Arctic haven't re-formed properly since 07's melt. This helps to explain how the NW Passage ice has cleared so much over the last 2 years and also why the shelfs along the Ellesmere islands coast took such a battering in 08'.

Once the ice arches opened I wonder whether they enabled a stronger flow from the Pacific ,through the archipelago, and out down the West coast of Greenland? The continuous flow of ice from north Greenland, down the channel, over winter would be better explained if we had a warm current flowing over the top of Canada.

[ScottSnow]

GW - First you say that satellite data can't be trusted as we are playing by new rules and then you post a link to satellite data to help enforce your point.

[Gray-Wolf]

I do trust sats!

We seem to have issues with interpreting data though that's all! The radar for ice density which brings us ice type has not been updated since this last phase of Arctic collapse began and so we were misled by the signal from the 'rotten ice' as it ,being comprised of 'old perennial remnants, gave the same signature of the massive islands of 'old perennial'.

When we have light over spring /summer/autumn you can trust your eyes when checking break up and melt (esp. with the 250m resolution images) ,why would we not?

The Antarctic break off of Mertz Glacier tongue (around the corner from my beloved Ross) was an easy spot on the Terra/Aqua sats as is the near collapse of Shackleton over the past few days.

Sorry if I confused you SW.The new Euro satellite (when they finally launch!!!) will bring us even better data on ice thickness and type and I'll certainly be using it's data to help me form my opinions about the state of the Arctic.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100323161819.htm

Seems like the Ice Arch issue at the end of the Nares Straight is shadowed on the Greenland continent itself. The record ice losses have spread up the NW Coast over the past 5 years (with the Nares Straight being the coast there). Of Course we have the Petermann glacier there which has the potential to drain a fair chunk of the NW Greenland ice sheet.

Once again this is happening far faster than models predicted (how many more times will we find AGW outstripping it's forecast?)

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/climate-change-catastrophe-worst-ice-year-on-record-leads-to-harp-seals-demise-89105962.html

Nuff said.......

[jethro]

But what has it got to do with AGW?

[stewfox]

http://www.prnewswir...e-89105962.html

Nuff said.......

Only if you dont read it.

We have

------------------

Climate Change Catastrophe: Worst Ice Year on Record Leads to Harp Seals' Demise

----------

Then

---------------------

I've surveyed this region for nine years and have never seen anything like this," said Sheryl Fink, a senior researcher with IFAW

---------------

Guess what they have had a mild winter up there

Now IFAW , no specific agenda I would guess ??

http://www.ifaw.org/splash.php

Edited March 26, 2010 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

Now that's quite a lead across the pole isn't it? Open water at the pole at this time of year?

[stewfox]

Now that's quite a lead across the pole isn't it? Open water at the pole at this time of year?

I'm just wondering what could be potentially the longest running live internet thread in a hundred years time ? Maybe this one ??

GW if you going to post a picture of someone broken windscreen please attach the reference ?

[Gray-Wolf]

GW if you going to post a picture of someone broken windscreen please attach the reference ?

LOL!

Quite a thing though Eh? I'll see if I can get one from Modis as , over the next couple of days, all the North now has daylight so the 'composite image' of the arctic will be complete.

Once we've got that we can zoom down to 250m resolution and figure just how wide that lead is and how much open water we have at the Geographic pole before the end of March.

Don't forget we now have the full moon

http://aa.usno.navy....urrent_moon.php

so the big tidal surges will also be impacting the pack as they run beneath the ice. The central regions (where ice is least disturbed) would be a good place to reference both now and in a couple of days time.

EDIT: in twenty years time the 'summer arm' of this thread will be redundant as we will be accustomed to 'ice free' by late Aug (no drama then) and we'll only have the winter losses to interest ourselve in (of course this will be ice 'volume' and not extent).

Edited March 29, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

EDIT: in twenty years time the 'summer arm' of this thread will be redundant as we will be accustomed to 'ice free' by late Aug (no drama then) and we'll only have the winter losses to interest ourselve in (of course this will be ice 'volume' and not extent).

Won’t we get some decent ice volume data this year ?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the U.S. "IceBridge" mission is underway and we'll have our cryosat2 up by the end of spring but it'll only give us the volume 'now'.

If we had accurate volumes from the 50's ,60's and 70's we would be able to show how far beyond 'natural variation' the Arctic ice has moved. Sadly we'll be undermined by how skimpy the Sub and scientific data was through those periods for the Skeptics to accept them as meaningful.

I have no doubt the 'new age' of volume measurements will still log the end of the perennial ice and usher in the age of the seasonal pack but the scale of what we have lost will be 'lost' for many folk who do not wish to believe the scale of the changes we have driven.

[stewfox]

.

If we had accurate volumes from the 50's ,60's and 70's we would be able to show how far beyond 'natural variation' the Arctic ice has moved. Sadly we'll be undermined by how skimpy the Sub and scientific data was through those periods for the Skeptics to accept them as meaningful.

If we are going to have an ice free arctic (summer) in the next 20/30 years what does it matter what a sceptic says about 1900 1950 or 1245 ? .

It's a bit like saying your worried what the global warming sceptics will say if we saw a 3c global warming rise in next 20yrs.

Ice volume going forward must be (if accurate) a good measurement of the overall robustness of the arctic ??.

If IJJS over all tended in the next 20 yrs show a 15% reduction in area of sea covered by ice but the ice volume was down 40% I know what I would me more 'concern about'.

If I want to walk on a pond of ice, give me its thickness any day above its area.

Reading between the lines you don't sound too confident of any further reduction in ice volume but seem to want to refer to some 'good old days' .