South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[Ian Fergusson]

Do you have any hints for the longer-term outlook?

Essentially maintaining the cold / largely cold theme and unsettled pattern this coming week; a likelihood of a somewhat (short) milder interlude then establishing and peaking around 29th, before a return to colder type as signalled by various models including EC, GFS. Agreement on the broad theme is good initially this week, moderate thereafter. But regionalised detail even early this week remains elusive and complex.

Snow threat another story: low confidence as each day progresses. So, no surprises there, then.

[dogs32]

not to far away now,just going outside to check how cold it is or warm.

I reckon within the HR It could be here.. <_<

edit Thanks for your input and time Ian

Edited December 19, 2009 by dogs32

[03jtrickey]

Essentially maintaining the cold / largely cold theme and unsettled pattern this coming week; a likelihood of a somewhat (short) milder interlude then establishing and peaking around 29th, before a return to colder type as signalled by various models including EC, GFS. Agreement on the broad theme is good initially this week, moderate thereafter. But regionalised detail even early this week remains elusive and complex.

Snow threat another story: low confidence as each day progresses. So, no surprises there, then.

Thanks very much for all this inside info + about the MBS!

[Nights King]

It's the MO's bespoke software product (MBS) we use across BBC Weather (and for other media outlets, I believe). It was recently upgraded by the good folks at Exeter to allow scalable mapping to 1km / GoogleEarth local levels with rainfall radar and other parameter overlay. It's especially handy for local radio nowcasting, I find, especially when tied with the Highways Agencies HANET web system of traffic cams for 'ground-truth' realtime obs (where possible). The MO system also has a nifty 5-min scalable update for SFERICS from the ATDNet system, but also allows this to be accessed across much of the globe, which is very handy when providing global Formula One nowcasts on our BBC 606 sports forum & F1 website (there's nothing quite like a thunderstorm in an F1 race....)

Thanks for answering our questions tonight, it would be great if you could give us westerners an update on sunday perhaps on our chances for the start of next week.

Still very cold -1.4c

alot of people are reporting very brief sleet/rain turning to snow within half an hour.

[dogs32]

1.4 °C

Overcast

Windchill: -3 °C

Humidity: 87%

.

I think there is a update from the Met 20.37

Edited December 19, 2009 by dogs32

[SteveB]

Temp is still rising here, currently 3.9c.

Yet there is snow all around my location.

[Ian Fergusson]

Thanks for answering our questions tonight, it would be great if you could give us westerners an update on sunday perhaps on our chances for the start of next week.

Sure thing - of course. And incidentally, it's rather scary seeing my colleague's face on your postings, especially with his original glasses, of which he and I have shared a number of recent conversations since I had to yield to the goggles myself a fortnight ago. He'll doubtless chuckle when I show him your avatar! (especially as he ditched those glasses a fair while back....).

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Sure thing - of course. And incidentally, it's rather scary seeing my colleague's face on your postings, especially with his original glasses, of which he and I have shared a number of recent conversations since I had to yield to the goggles myself a fortnight ago. He'll doubtless chuckle when I show him your avatar! (especially as he ditched those glasses a fair while back....).

Don't tell him he was recently ditched for Cheryl Cole

Edited December 19, 2009 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[fromey]

Don't tell him he was recently ditched for Cheryl Cole

temps up and down like a yo yo, but dont get above 0c thank god, its going to be along night.

ian many thanks for taking the time to keeps us informed.

Edited December 19, 2009 by fromey

[Ian Fergusson]

Worth keeping an eye on the FLASH and other warnings now being sequentially extended southwards as the ground truth obs reflect reality versus the modelling - see http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

[kumquat]

hehe - you could be in trouble here mullender

[dogs32]

some of that rain,sleet or snow look's intense..

And the beefy shower's up North..

[Nights King]

Sure thing - of course. And incidentally, it's rather scary seeing my colleague's face on your postings, especially with his original glasses, of which he and I have shared a number of recent conversations since I had to yield to the goggles myself a fortnight ago. He'll doubtless chuckle when I show him your avatar! (especially as he ditched those glasses a fair while back....).

Haha I met him once a few years back at a bath and west show and asked lots of weather questions, however i did think to myself i bet he gets fed up of the constant questions from people like myself interested in weather. Ask him to mention us down here on the mendips occasionaly, all we hear about is the cotswolds.

Thanks again for all your information! Now it is just wait and see what happens tonight.

Edited December 19, 2009 by mullender83

[fromey]

sorry dont know what happened there, it was the rain fall radar, its getting close!!!

Edited December 19, 2009 by fromey

[butler_son]

Well, any snow that's due to Dorset can wait a while...I'm giving my dear old Mother a lift to and from her work's Christmas do tonight and I'd be a little annoyed if it started snowing! It can wait until I get back!

How lovely to see Ian posting in here! I don't receive Points West in my location, but it seems you're well respected by the audience! In the absence of anyone from the BBC South region giving us updates, I assume from your posts that being that little bit further east may aid us here in Dorset?

[cirendaz]

Worth keeping an eye on the FLASH and other warnings now being sequentially extended southwards as the ground truth obs reflect reality versus the modelling - see http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

thanks for the update.still freezing cold here

[Nights King]

hehe - you could be in trouble here mullender

Maybe i should have chosen a different avatar....

[03jtrickey]

Looks like there is quite a lot of ppt piling up across Wales now! Hopefully some will head this way.

mullender - yes I have so many questions I could ask Ian!

[dogs32]

Looks like there is quite a lot of ppt piling up across Wales now! Hopefully some will head this way.

mullender - yes I have so many questions I could ask Ian!

getting close now....I reckon within the hr

James whats your temp and DP around your way

[twister2005]

evening all, just reading the west midlands posts and they are having some snow not rain, so hopefully thats good for us temp here is 1.7c maybe its too warm buts keeps going up and down !

[lfcdude]

I just want to say ian, ya much better then angwin

[Nights King]

How is everyones temps fairing at the moment? Especialy as that front gets close it would be interesting to know how much they rise....

[Ian Fergusson]

Just received brand new modelling and guidance from MO Ops Centre...... snow chance for parts of West (e.g., Bristol, Somerset) somewhat enhanced now into the early hours, so no surprise if some of you see this around 0200-0400hrs (but not large amounts if any, I stress!). Main issue is rain washing salt off roads..... already being reported to the MO in some areas...... then a freeze-over. I'm off to bed; up before 0500 - - enjoy!

[SteveB]

Worth keeping an eye on the FLASH and other warnings now being sequentially extended southwards as the ground truth obs reflect reality versus the modelling - see http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Ian, I can't understand why my temp is rising, currently 3.9c. That snow is bearing down on our region, but temps must be too high, unless they fall before it arrives?.

[03jtrickey]

Temp is 1.7C at the moment, not sure about Dew Point - I don't have a sensor, RH is 64% and going by online calculators that gives a dewpoint of -7 which seems a bit OTT. And you?