South Central England Cold Spell Discussion

[isleofwightsnowgal]

just saw the bbc weather said will probably turn st sleet and rain tuesday into weds across the far south!!........it always happens!!!

Great!! Thanks for that!!

[dogs32]

this as been the most quiet of all thread's,come next week this will probably be the most snow dumping of this winter..

good luck and enjoy

[isleofwightsnowgal]

this as been the most quiet of all thread's,come next week this will probably be the most snow dumping of this winter..

good luck and enjoy

I hope u r right!! do u know something we dont??.....

[PompeyFC]

just saw the bbc weather said will probably turn st sleet and rain tuesday into weds across the far south!!........it always happens!!!

I wouldn't be so sure of that if I were the BBC

[iowpompeylee]

I wouldn't be so sure of that if I were the BBC

we have to get something surely!!! charts look good!! just a few flurries and i will be happy!!!

[isleofwightsnowgal]

we have to get something surely!!! charts look good!! just a few flurries and i will be happy!!!

You've changed your tune!!! Why's that then??

[iowpompeylee]

You've changed your tune!!! Why's that then??

just you and me on this forum sis!! lets hope we all get snowed in!! tue weds and thurs!!

[Frank Trough]

hello all in the far south.

well, how's it looking? I think what we need is that low that sinks southwest through early next week to intensify, as shown by the 06z. 12z is till good, though. There has been a lot of mention of '91 in the main model thread which indeed, was very good for south east england and central southern england. However, down on the coast it wasn't good at all. I lived on the IOW at the time and, though it was very cold, we were almost dry. Just snizzle as it fazed out. The projected easterly at the end of the week, i would suspect, probably wouldn't deliver much.

having said that, i'm just hoping for something midweek initially. The countryfile forecast in 15 mins could be interesting.

here's hoping!

[Frank Trough]

hello all in the far south.

well, how's it looking? I think what we need is that low that sinks southwest through early next week to intensify, as shown by the 06z. 12z is till good, though. There has been a lot of mention of '91 in the main model thread which indeed, was very good for south east england and central southern england. However, down on the coast it wasn't good at all. I lived on the IOW at the time and, though it was very cold, we were almost dry. Just snizzle as it fazed out. The projected easterly at the end of the week, i would suspect, probably wouldn't deliver much.

having said that, i'm just hoping for something midweek initially. The countryfile forecast in 15 mins could be interesting.

here's hoping!

well, that forecast downplayed midweek but gave us a chance towards the weekend. I must say, i think we'll get something but we're going to need to stayed glued to the fax charts and, more importantly, the weather radar from tuesday onwards.

it looks marginal for decent snow to me. Next weekend is a long way off, though, and a slight shift in the pattern or a tightening of the easterly could make a difference.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

well, that forecast downplayed midweek but gave us a chance towards the weekend. I must say, i think we'll get something but we're going to need to stayed glued to the fax charts and, more importantly, the weather radar from tuesday onwards.

it looks marginal for decent snow to me. Next weekend is a long way off, though, and a slight shift in the pattern or a tightening of the easterly could make a difference.

I thought it looke great for the IOW weds, thurs and poss into the wkend so fingers crossed!!

[Frank Trough]

I thought it looke great for the IOW weds, thurs and poss into the wkend so fingers crossed!!

it looked cold but the front will have to pep up midweek. I remember the famous 91 forecast which predicted widespread snow as far as dorset which didn't happen for us and i can't help seeing parallels with the latest output.

anyhow, i'm excited at the prospect and things will change before wednesday. look forward to staying up all night on this forum watching lamposts!

good luck snowgal,

Paul

[snowflakey]

Nervous model watching times this week for all us IMBY isle of Wighters. Been such along time since we've had a descent snowfall. My main concern is that, although it looks like a Scandy/Siberian high marriage later on to-wards the end of next week, to me the orientation looks wrong for pulling in the bitterly cold Russian air. It is finally balanced though and I could be reading the charts wrong. This winter the cold scenarios that appear in FI seem to be coming off where as in past winters they never did.

[Frank Trough]

Nervous model watching times this week for all us IMBY isle of Wighters. Been such along time since we've had a descent snowfall. My main concern is that, although it looks like a Scandy/Siberian high marriage later on to-wards the end of next week, to me the orientation looks wrong for pulling in the bitterly cold Russian air. It is finally balanced though and I could be reading the charts wrong. This winter the cold scenarios that appear in FI seem to be coming off where as in past winters they never did.

1997 wasn't it? apart from that april snow in about 2008. fingers crossed - i'm not getting my hopes up just yet although i do think we'll something. I think sussex, surrey and kent will get pasted..

[MisfitDog3]

Never quite sure whether Farnham falls into the SE camp or Central/Southern. -7.1C last night. Snow, as for many in the south, has been at a premium this Winter so far. What would be great is for a nice Thames streamer to get going if the easterly gets established. That has often been a generous provider of decent snow to the corridor through west Surrey and out towards Alton in the past! I don't see much coming out of the cold front tonight, given past experience of anything travelling over that much land from the North. An odd graupel here or there.

[Jamie R]

Hi folks, i thought i would join up seeing as im ill today and need to be amused!

1997 is correct BTW, it was in December due to a sinking scandi high and warm front pushing up from the SW. The day previous to it had a strong easterly and a few outbreaks of snow, but it was overnight that the front pushed through and produced many inches of snow away from the IOW east coast.

Also last Feb there was a thundersnow event that gave Chale about 5 inches of snow in half an hour, but that was very localised.

Anyway, back to this cold spell .......Going by the midnight model runs, we are in for some snow, thats for sure, even the borderline event for tomorrow is likely to give a dusting away from the islands west coast, also over the hills (as you would expect!) although the lower areas on the western half of the island will probably see wet snow or maybe even sleet for a time. The precipitation amounts will only be small though (much like a couple of weeks ago). I have got my eye on a potential event for wednesday, which if it happens will be pure snow, and with upper air of around -8'c and winds from the northern quadrant, it just couldn't fall as anything but snow. But once again its the amount that bothers me, because the GFS model predicts quite a bit of snow for us, but the Met fax charts only show a small trough in the SE, and whilst i still think we would get a little bit of snow from that, things could well change.

As for the end of the week, its unlikely we will see much snow, even over the weekend. The high will be positioned wrongly for a start and we will have very cold NE winds but probably overcast with a few bits of snow here and there, but as you know, things change!

Anyway thats my take on things

[tollgateiow]

This just issued by the met office, includes the IOW too, fingers crossed, sounds promising!

Heavy Snow Tue 5 Jan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting east and southeast England.

Outbreaks of sleet and snow will become heavier during Tuesday afternoon and evening, with an increasing risk of disruption to transport networks.

Issued at: 1124 Mon 4 Jan

[SunnySouthCoast]

Well the temp here last night dropped no lower than -1C (30F) & it's already at 2C (36F), can see it getting to at least 4C (39F) today... has the cold snap started yet?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Wooooooooo I should come down there to warm up! Go to -8.4c last night and current -2.1c. Real ice day here today!

[SunnySouthCoast]

Wooooooooo I should come down there to warm up! Go to -8.4c last night and current -2.1c. Real ice day here today!

Really?! Wow, yes come down to the Costa Del Solent for your "warm" winter break

Though hopefully it will be cold enough here for when/if the snow arrives...

[Jamie R]

Really?! Wow, yes come down to the Costa Del Solent for your "warm" winter break

Though hopefully it will be cold enough here for when/if the snow arrives...

Well it dropped to -6.8'c here, with -4'c being quite wide spread on the IOW. Currently 0.6'c so plenty cold still

[Jamie R]

Just watched BBC South today weather, she said rain or maybe sleet for the Isle of Wight. I still think that the east and north side of the island could see snowfall, as long as the winds remain very light. If the winds pick up to anything more than 10mph, i think it will be sleet at best before turning to snow on the back edge.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Well it dropped to -6.8'c here, with -4'c being quite wide spread on the IOW. Currently 0.6'c so plenty cold still

Indeed many places have had a very cold night, unfortunately here on Portsea Island (Portsmouth) we suffer from the dreaded "Urban Heat Effect" which always stops temps from dropping too low, a bit like central London really

Just watched BBC South today weather, she said rain or maybe sleet for the Isle of Wight. I still think that the east and north side of the island could see snowfall, as long as the winds remain very light. If the winds pick up to anything more than 10mph, i think it will be sleet at best before turning to snow on the back edge.

Yes I saw that forecast with the lovely Reham, had snow over south east Hampshire tomorrow afternoon, but rain over Southsea!! Though I know the BBC's graphics are always wildly out so I will keep my fingers crossed for proper snow!

[pinkertonsurly]

The latest NAE charts look pretty confident for snow from late morning onwards, possibly for another 24 hours in the C. Southern area.

Put it this way: if I need to drive anywhere, it will snow. Heavily.

Based on this, Tuesday evening about 6.30, and the same time next week is nailed on.

[Bobby]

Foot of snow for the Isle of Wight lol.

[Stoxs]

12z GFS update

On the 12z run there is a big upgrade of PPn for our part of the country including the snowless IOW!

Be warned this is no way a gaurentee of getting what is being predicted.

I think i could say most of the south area will see some snow in the next 24/48hrs.

Any snow will settle as the ground is now very cold.

Amounts of snow for our area are being predicted from as little as 1/2cms, upto 10/20cms.

Again this is very location dependant and could still go wrong and end up in a different location in the country.

Timings of the snow

There is likely to be showers of snow coming into our area around lunchtime Tuesday and potential of showers right through to wednesday night.

Now the ? on the latest charts these showers pep up over night tuesday into wednesday and could leed to some significant falls .

Please don`t get carried away with this post it might not happen but if it does i will take the praise!

LOL

Best bet is to find a good radar or lampost to watch and wait and see what happens.

The met office have issued an early warning of severe weather for our area.

might be worth informing needy relatives and make sure they are ok for a day or two if this Happens.

good luck and be safe