Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[Wales123098]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8431974.stm

[Cymro]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8431974.stm

If a bit of news has got me concerned its that one yes we all want snow but we are talking serious levels here

[Wales123098]

Some people on here saying warnings are going to go away. I very much doubt it! BBC has Cardiff as Heavy Snow News Years day/friday now iswell

[keithlucky]

Jack one ty for earlier info any idea timing of this front early morning tues looks good what do you think?

[Jamie.]

I've looked at forecasts and Thurs/Fri looks more promising for snow but the weather warnings and charts clearly indicate Tues/Wed is the Days to look out for.

Maybe we'll have a Tue - Fri snow fall. Imagine...

[Marcus_surfer]

Ah please can we just have a foot of snow and major disruption, thats what i like! :lol:

I've looked at forecasts and Thurs/Fri looks more promising for snow but the weather warnings and charts clearly indicate Tues/Wed is the Days to look out for.

Maybe we'll have a Tue - Fri snow fall. Imagine...

Yes Thursday and Friday do look interesting, as this front isn't really going anywhere, in cold air, it could deliver more snow to parts of Wales.

[Jamie.]

^ Yes! BBC Online is forecasting Heavy Snow in S.Wales Friday and into the Night.

Wow. That'll change no doubt though .

Edited December 27, 2009 by Jamie.ed

[Marcus_surfer]

^ Yes! BBC Online is forecasting Heavy Snow in S.Wales Friday and into the Night.

Wow. That'll change no doubt though .

Yeah it's a very long way of, and they forecast rain for Tues/Wed

[keithlucky]

We need to watch somerset tommorow night if it snows we have snow, i not worried a wiggle forms wednesday on the front and snow will dig in we see plenty of snow dont worry looks great the front is going to be sitting on top of us.

Edited December 27, 2009 by keithlucky

[Jamie.]

Yeah it's a very long way of, and they forecast rain for Tues/Wed

I think it'll be a case of nowcasting for Tues/Wed as they're again unsure where it's gonna fall.

They forecast heavy rain here last Wednesday (forecast day before), and I had to go Home early because it was heavy snow.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

GFS 18Z @ 42h: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

The GFS seems stubborn on placing the low further north than shown on the UKMO, GME, ECM.

Im going to wait until tomorrows model output. It does seem however that the GFS has its own idea of things wanting to pull higher upper air temps northwards.

[Marcus_surfer]

I think it'll be a case of nowcasting for Tues/Wed as they're again unsure where it's gonna fall.

They forecast heavy rain here last Wednesday (forecast day before), and I had to go Home early because it was heavy snow.

Yeah, Most snow events here are always forecast heavy rain or sleet. We have had MANY events when the rain turns rapidly to snow too.

[keithlucky]

GFS 18Z @ 42h: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn421.png

The GFS seems stubborn on placing the low further north than shown on the UKMO, GME, ECM.

Im going to wait until tomorrows model output. It does seem however that the GFS has its own idea of things wanting to pull higher upper air temps northwards.

Look at weatheronline met office the front will straddle across the m4 corridor brummy land is as far north as it gets .It will stall over us with a wiggle developing on the front which will intensify the precipatation. Edited December 27, 2009 by keithlucky

[willitbsunny]

yay I live about 4 miles North of the M4

[J10]

Yeah, Most snow events here are always forecast heavy rain or sleet. We have had MANY events when the rain turns rapidly to snow too.

Generally we tend to do badly out of such events, however Feb 2007 was an exception and we did quite well earlier this year.

One thing this time is that the winds are set to be easterly and this should minimise the effect of coastal warming.

GFS will either get 10/10 for this or 0/10, no in-between.

[DeepSnow]

Well i live kinda along the M4 corridor, looking foward to seeing some snow! So when is it ment to start, will it be monday night or will we have to wait till tuesday? Just looked on theweatheroutlook and they say that "Computer forecasting models are suggesting the cold spell may persist for at least 10 days." which would be very nice! does anyone else have any idea how long it may last?

[J10]

Well i live kinda along the M4 corridor, looking foward to seeing some snow! So when is it ment to start, will it be monday night or will we have to wait till tuesday? Just looked on theweatheroutlook and they say that "Computer forecasting models are suggesting the cold spell may persist for at least 10 days." which would be very nice! does anyone else have any idea how long it may last?

ECM suggests an awesome cold spell, with ensembles to match

GFS doesn't really want a cold spell at all, may get briefly colder towards next weekend.

BUT GFS is completely on its own even for tomorrow.

[casparjack]

I know I'm not officially in Wales, but I am very close, less than five miles, so I feel that my weather is almost invariably influenced by what happend to my West rather than the East.

My feeling is that at just over 500 ft amsl, that I might have to wait until Wednesday before I see any snow that will settle, then it could get interesting...

Edited December 27, 2009 by casparjack

[Guest archiesmummy]

Hi there

I have come across from the east anglia post and i am after some thoughts from you guys....

we are due to leave essex tomorrow morning and are heading for Carmarthen (Velindre) i dont think will be any problems getting there however am bit concerned re the return journy on Tuesday, we have a 1 year old son and will also have an elderly Aunt with us, my hubbie is experienced at driving in the snow and icy conditions but we still only have a Vectra!!!!

Whats peoples thoughts on how bad it could possibly get? I know is hard to say, some weather reports say snow Wednesday, some Sunday next week....any ideas?

[keithlucky]

Hi there

I have come across from the east anglia post and i am after some thoughts from you guys....

we are due to leave essex tomorrow morning and are heading for Carmarthen (Velindre) i dont think will be any problems getting there however am bit concerned re the return journy on Tuesday, we have a 1 year old son and will also have an elderly Aunt with us, my hubbie is experienced at driving in the snow and icy conditions but we still only have a Vectra!!!!

Whats peoples thoughts on how bad it could possibly get? I know is hard to say, some weather reports say snow Wednesday, some Sunday next week....any ideas?

Just stick to main roads you be fine it will be gritted 3 times a day motoraway gritted constantly.

[Wales123098]

Hi there

I have come across from the east anglia post and i am after some thoughts from you guys....

we are due to leave essex tomorrow morning and are heading for Carmarthen (Velindre) i dont think will be any problems getting there however am bit concerned re the return journy on Tuesday, we have a 1 year old son and will also have an elderly Aunt with us, my hubbie is experienced at driving in the snow and icy conditions but we still only have a Vectra!!!!

Whats peoples thoughts on how bad it could possibly get? I know is hard to say, some weather reports say snow Wednesday, some Sunday next week....any ideas?

Well with 40mph winds along the M4 corrider with possible heavy snow along the M4 be very carful. Tune into bbc wales radio on your journey. Snow is expected to arrive in the south of Wales around midnight tommorow evening. There might be so much heavy drifting snow and possible blizzards that the gritters and snow plows might not be able to keep the roads open even the M4.

Edited December 27, 2009 by Wales123098

[Marcus_surfer]

Well with 40mph winds along the M4 corrider with possible heavy snow along the M4 be very carful. Tune into bbc wales radio on your journey. Snow is expected to arrive in the south of Wales around midnight tommorow evening. There might be so much heavy drifting snow and possible blizzards that the gritters and snow plows might not be able to keep the roads open even the M4.

If they are well prepared (like they should be 24/7) the main roads should be fine.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Well with 40mph winds along the M4 corrider with possible heavy snow along the M4 be very carful. Tune into bbc wales radio on your journey. Snow is expected to arrive in the south of Wales around midnight tommorow evening. There might be so much heavy drifting snow and possible blizzards that the gritters and snow plows might not be able to keep the roads open even the M4.

Mate before we warn people lol, we should wait till the morning to see what the situation is i think.

[Guest archiesmummy]

thanks guys, will keep an ear and eye out....we would be prepared, ray mears style thanks to hubbie......

[J10]

To try and clear this up for new members the NAE charts are high resolution and used extensively but not exclusivly by bbc forecasts, so the meto seem to take notice of the nae along with other model data when compiling the fax charts. You will notice often the similarity with NAE and the fax which has human intervention. The NAE is a useful tool at short range.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912271800&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

The NAE 18Hz doesn't seem as favourable as the 12Hz though looking at the snow/rain distinction.

Today was the first time I had heard of the NAE, cheers for that Pyro.