Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[pyrotech]

GFS on Meteogroup is showing snow at least from 3am until 3pm Tuesday (from Tuesday)

Correct me if I am wrong why is this bad news!?

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/ww/2009122712/nothumb/on/45/ch/e7b6fabcfb.html

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/latest_model_forecasts/gfs_popup/archiv/NSea/ww/2009122712/nothumb/on/48/ch/c37421ada4.html

Weather wise this is a clasic 80s style setup, This has potential to give very heavy snow. How far south will be forecast only 24 hrs out then expect some changs on the day ( good or bad) Do not worry about GFS it is not doing a reliable job right now and anyway the meto is the best in these situations and short range. Biggest plus is the met warnings right now. Personally see it as marginal around southrn areas but with posible east wind kicking in we could get lucky.

Tomorrow should show good changes on GFS.

[J10]

Looks to me atm that northwards of Brecon will recieve snow and further south more wintery, Regardless what some say about altitude, this is for tuesday by the way. I hope I'm wrong however, But i can see the warnings changing tomorrow to include, Powys, Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Conwy, Dinbych and Wrecsam only with the rest of us unlikely ?

Looking at the charts posted above, much of the South Wales Valleys should do OK, and I would you could do very well, perhaps as far south as Merthyr, Maesteg, and certainly much of the South Wales Valleys to the East.

However the 12HZ UKMO run is an upgrade to the 06Hz run and as such perhaps the snow risk will cover more of South Wales by then.

[pyrotech]

The charts posted by Ian Fergusson from earlier runs, do indicate a rain event for coastal Wales, snow for much of the Valleys, pretty much down to the M4 in the south, and then most of inland Wales away from the west coast further north.

Lick Rain= Green, Snow =Blue

These charts are very high resolution.

Hi Jackone.

with the warnings xtended to Bristol and North Somerset i would till say there is a chance this will effect below M4, just higher chance above. This COULD still be a south wales event. An interesting 24 hours of model watching coming up i think.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just seen BBC forecast looks like South Wales will be very wet with heavy rain, whilst mid Wales and the Midlands get blizzards.

[Jamie.]

Had an unexpected flurry of snow earlier .

I hope the forecast is wrong .

Heavy rain would be such a disappointment.

[DeepSnow]

Just seen BBC forecast looks like South Wales will be very wet with heavy rain, whilst mid Wales and the Midlands get blizzards.

They have given forecasts like that before, where we were ment to get rain, but instead we saw heavy snow, so lets hope either they change to give us snow or they are wrong about us with the rain! I think we will get some snow at some point during tuesday or wednesday.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just seen BBC forecast looks like South Wales will be very wet with heavy rain, whilst mid Wales and the Midlands get blizzards.

I was just browsing the BBC website on forecast maps and it had snow over south wales early hours of tuesday.

[J10]

Just seen BBC forecast looks like South Wales will be very wet with heavy rain, whilst mid Wales and the Midlands get blizzards.

It also showed snow for here at times as well (and also for Gower), which is better than I expected.

[Jayfromcardiff]

It also showed snow for here at times as well (and also for Gower), which is better than I expected.

Not worth worrying until tomorrow night tbh, i'm sure it will change again.

[Jamie.]

Forecast Maps looks good for S.Wales on Thursday Night too...

[dogs32]

Just seen BBC forecast looks like South Wales will be very wet with heavy rain, whilst mid Wales and the Midlands get blizzards.

no dont say that!!!!

well it can change by then,

infact Im more north than south wales

so i still have a chance..

Edited December 27, 2009 by dogs32

[J10]

Hi Jackone.

with the warnings xtended to Bristol and North Somerset i would till say there is a chance this will effect below M4, just higher chance above. This COULD still be a south wales event. An interesting 24 hours of model watching coming up i think.

It is still possible, the UKMO run was a slight upgrade, a few miles south, compared to the 00Hz run, this is very close to a major event for all of South Wales but it is looking very promising indeed for most of Mid Wales, hilly areas of South Wales and pretty much all of the South Wales Valleys. By the way the ECM looks amazing.

[Wales123098]

Dont worry too much guys:)

[DeepSnow]

Dont worry too much guys:)

That shows Bridgend being kinda sleety, but i think it will actually be snow for here and i hope most of or all of south wales. If this does come off then could we get the same amount of snow as we did in feb, we had 6inches here then and would love to get that again or more!

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Quite confusing as to whos going to get the snow in this setup

UKMO 12z @ 60h: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm601.gif

GFS 12z @ 60h: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn601.png

UKMO has the low further South restricting the warmer upper air temps to just the S coastal areas of Wales. The GFS has it further North pumping up milder upper air temperatures over Wales and the Midlands. - Quite a diffrence between the two as you can see.

The 60h Fax chart: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax60s.gif

The best spot for snow here does seem to be Mid Wales, its hard to say because the position&track of this system hasnt been sorted out.

The track of the low would still need to be placed further South than what the UKMO shows to bring Heavy snow to those closer to the coast e.g. Swansea, Neath, Cardiff ...

The models are likely to change again so will the risk areas

[Jayfromcardiff]

Quite confusing as to whos going to get the snow in this setup

UKMO 12z @ 60h: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm601.gif

GFS 12z @ 60h: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn601.png

UKMO has the low further South restricting the warmer upper air temps to just the S coastal areas of Wales. The GFS has it further North pumping up milder upper air temperatures over Wales and the Midlands. - Quite a diffrence between the two as you can see.

The 60h Fax chart: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax60s.gif

The best spot for snow here does seem to be Mid Wales, its hard to say because the position&track of this system hasnt been sorted out.

The track of the low would still need to be placed further South than what the UKMO shows to bring Heavy snow to those closer to the coast e.g. Swansea, Neath, Cardiff ...

The models are likely to change again so will the risk areas

But with a bit of height snow cannot be ruled out in the areas mentioned.

[Wales123098]

But with a bit of height snow cannot be ruled out in the areas mentioned.

I think I will have snow despite only being 9-10miles inland.

[CLH the red dragon]

That shows Bridgend being kinda sleety, but i think it will actually be snow for here and i hope most of or all of south wales. If this does come off then could we get the same amount of snow as we did in feb, we had 6inches here then and would love to get that again or more!

Us Pencoed'ers are secretly bracketing ourselves as further east and north

[Jayfromcardiff]

I think I will have snow despite only being 9-10miles inland.

Lol yep you will for sure mate with your height, what do you think about my chances?

[J10]

Quite confusing as to whos going to get the snow in this setup

UKMO 12z @ 60h: http://www.wetterzen...ics/Rukm601.gif

GFS 12z @ 60h: http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn601.png

UKMO has the low further South restricting the warmer upper air temps to just the S coastal areas of Wales. The GFS has it further North pumping up milder upper air temperatures over Wales and the Midlands. - Quite a diffrence between the two as you can see.

The 60h Fax chart: http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax60s.gif

The best spot for snow here does seem to be Mid Wales, its hard to say because the position&track of this system hasnt been sorted out.

The track of the low would still need to be placed further South than what the UKMO shows to bring Heavy snow to those closer to the coast e.g. Swansea, Neath, Cardiff ...

The models are likely to change again so will the risk areas

The ECM has the colder air across all of Wales (all snow event), and even the UKMO keeps the 0c 850-HPA temps below zero for nearly all of Wales, as a result and with each subsequent model tending to track the front further south, nowhere in South Wales can be ruled out.

I think I will have snow despite only being 9-10miles inland.

Looking promising unless the GFS is right.

[Wales123098]

Lol yep you will for sure mate with your height, what do you think about my chances?

In the city in my personal oponion its going to be snowing very heavy dumping 2-3inches before it turns to rain later on in the day then back to snow on wednesday. In the south Wales valleys i can still see us having up to a foot of snow. Im hateing the GFS at the moment though lol.

[Jayfromcardiff]

In the city in my personal oponion its going to be snowing very heavy dumping 2-3inches before it turns to rain later on in the day then back to snow on wednesday. In the south Wales valleys i can still see us having up to a foot of snow. Im hateing the GFS at the moment though lol.

I'm not in the city though, im near pontprennau on a slight hill lol.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

But with a bit of height snow cannot be ruled out in the areas mentioned.

Yes elevated locations in the areas mentioned could well see some snow, perhaps above 250m. Not sure because the track of that low is going to change that anyway.

[J10]

This reminds of a time in February 1996, when there was about 36 hours of solid snowafalls, as a front from the west met embedded cold from the east.

As a result there was around 12-18 inches of snow in Ebbw Vale, and here there was a wintry mix of sleet and snow, and about 4 inches of snow fell, while at sea level, there was only rain.

[Cymro]

What i would say is asses it tomorrow evening then we'll know for certain yn y cyfamser ewn ni'n wallgof (in the mean time we can go mental )