Model Output Discussion - 26Th Dec 21:25-->

[john w]

Agree in flooding for SE...where I am will be very marginal.

Could be an odd setup this with Stanstead and Luton being closed to snow and Gatwick being flooded by the River Mole......

[snowlover2009]

Well the only model that let me down this evening is the GFS but this will have to come

in line in the t0 - 150 time frame by tomorrow i would have thought.

A simply incredible run by the ECM with plenty of snow for many areas and daytime temperatures

below or well below freezing for many days.

IF this comes off as shown tonight it would almost certainly go down along side many of the other

classic cold spells that have occurred in the UK.

Just one other thing to add at t240 on the n/hemisphere chart it shows the most humongous block

covering half of the Arctic from Canada to Siberia.

that ecm run would be a cold spell to remember, forget last years cold spells. snow fest for everywhere there and i could not say where would likely to see the less snow at all because everywhere would be digging themselves out

[David-kig]

rain in the south west!!!! is this front gunna go back south???

[Alex95]

what a very very cold and snowfest ecm is! i have seen nothing like it especially at 216 and 240, the uk surrounded by 3 low pressures bring us snow. no one would miss out on this run at all, even the coming week.

I'm sure there is an archive charts from 1963 which is similar? It might be around early February 1963.

[kent]

This place is unreal of the ecm had that low further north you,s in the south would be crying like babies and then to say on the plus side it would be very cold here in the nw i dont want v cold i want snow!!!

Cant believe the selfishness of some on here, here in Poole we have not seen a snowflake from this recent snowy spell and nothing from last Februarys cold snap either, in fact I have a son of 24 who has never witnessed more than 2cms of snow in his lifetime here. So to actually believe we may see something special here should be welcomed by the true spirit of most of the unbiased forecasters on here.

[kold weather]

Worth noting the track of this low pressure really is KEY...nearly all the milder ensembles take the low a little further north and deeper, its quite uncanny to see a little low that could have such a huge impact on our weather but thats what they show...

So we really do want it to either get shunted a little south or stay where it is now, if it trends more northwards then those ensembles suggest it'll be much tougher to get the cold air down ahead of the Atlantic lows coming in, and we could end up not getting any cold spell at all....

So thats real evidence why we don't want the LP any further north...if it does fet shunted northwards the odds on a cold spell for everyone bar maybe the Scottish goes down quite considerably...

Edited December 27, 2009 by kold weather

[phil nw.]

Good God, The ECM has just turned in to a snow machine, I really hope this comes off Steve, we have waited and been disappointed to many times. It seems that the winter from our wildest dreams just may be coming true for us snow and cold lovers.

Some serious cold weather and snowfall projected on the ECM, surface temperatures would be very low, there could well be powder snow over wide areas of England if these charts verify.

Indeed Paul,12z output if it verifies would cement a v.cold pattern for the whole UK.

Even over the last 2 days where minor details have varied and caused some concerns the wider pattern has stayed pretty solid.

These are classic charts for cold and snow,Northern Hemisphere view.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=1

Ok some differences regarding the Northern extent of this week`s battleground but it doesn`t figure in the bigger picture which is cold.

[Richard Lake]

As has been stated many times we need the LOW to miss the UK or stay as far to the south as possible to allow to allow cold from the NE to build and come towards the UK. The further south this LP dives into Southern France, Northern Spain and Portugal the better are chances are of prolonged cold as the Jet to the south becomes 'distracted'.

Oh Kold just posted the same thing.

Edited December 27, 2009 by rikki

[snowlover2009]

do people realise once this low stays more south, it would bring in the much colder air quicker and really favour us for potentially the rest of this winter. i got hung up about the low for tuesday, but i am still excited of some very very cold nights and days and the threat of heavy snow showers from the n-sea. people are never satifised. 'i want snow not very cold' who ever said that needs to grow up, people in the south have not had much form the latest cold spell, when this has passed you might want to thinka bout what could potentially happen down the line, notice how the low on ecm is further south and then look at what happens at the rest of the run. very cold and very snowy ecm for almost every region, possibly curtosy of the low being further south and the set up much better.

As has been stated many times we need the LOW to miss the UK or stay as far to the south as possible to allow to allow cold from the NE to build and come towards the UK.

Oh Kold just posted the same thing.

yes i just explained i was down hearted when i realised i was a bit too north for the low, but once it stays south its like a friend to us for a potential long period of time by giving some huge potential of snow and cold for the rest of the winter. and yet even though it is further south, there will still be some heavy snow showers for us in the north yet still people are having tauntrums

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z is a huge improvement on the earlier runs today, especially from early FI onwards, a bitterly cold, wintry FI for everyone, the cold air takes most of next week to reach the far south but if it happens, it will be worth the wait. In the meantime, some large falls of snow can be expected to develop in a zone covering parts of wales, the midlands and central northern england before the front pulls southeast later. The ecm is a mega cold run but my only concern is whether this upcoming wintry spell has enough ensemble support.

[West is Best]

Can't resist this:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

If you peek in the far far south-west corner on the latest radar you can see it starting to come into view!

That's how close this is. Remember the days of gazing into FI?!

Or watch the loop here if Paul will permit the link: http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

What a lovely sight!

Edited December 27, 2009 by West is Best

[qseghj6]

I'm sure there is an archive charts from 1963 which is similar? It might be around early February 1963.

http://www.mikett.plus.com/winter-62-63-maps/february/index1.htm

[Alex95]

do people realise once this low stays more south, it would bring in the much colder air quicker and really favour us for potentially the rest of this winter. i got hung up about the low for tuesday, but i am still excited of some very very cold nights and days and the threat of heavy snow showers from the n-sea. people are never satifised. 'i want snow not very cold' who ever said that needs to grow up, people in the south have not had much form the latest cold spell, when this has passed you might want to thinka bout what could potentially happen down the line, notice how the low on ecm is further south and then look at what happens at the rest of the run. very cold and very snowy ecm for almost every region, possibly curtosy of the low being further south and the set up much better.

Totally agree, once we get in a cold pattern as potent as that most areas would experience troughs bringing in snow and snow showers, admittedly the NW would do the least well but ECM FI shows that after the initial blast the focus for snow could well shift. Take the last cold spell, the East was originally going to be the worst hit, but as the spell went on most Northern and Western areas saw snow.

[80sWeather]

Well if the ECM and METO charts come off times are changing for the UK winters,there was a hint of this last year in DEC and FEB,but the DEC cold spell never really got there.Its just astonishing how much blocking is taking place this winter,as a child in the 80s i remember seeing an Easterly on the BBC weather MANY TIMES and just used to to think it was a normal part of UK winters, untill 1987 when they just suddenly became very tame and infrequent.Lets just hope these charts really happen because after so many let downs, mild winters,lame easterlys,48 HR cold snaps my god we ALL deserve it.

[Alex95]

http://www.mikett.plus.com/winter-62-63-maps/february/index1.htm

I couldn't find it there, but I think this is the one (see attachment)

It isn't exactly the same, but it is a similar idea with blocking around Greenland and various lows around NW Europe.

[grab my graupel]

Evening everyone

As this thread is getting a little long, I'll be opening a fresh one shortly

[snowlover2009]

Totally agree, once we get in a cold pattern as potent as that most areas would experience troughs bringing in snow and snow showers, admittedly the NW would do the least well but ECM FI shows that after the initial blast the focus for snow could well shift. Take the last cold spell, the East was originally going to be the worst hit, but as the spell went on most Northern and Western areas saw snow.

yes, weirdly enough when the mild charts are showing people get annoyed, you see spectacular runs like ecm and ukmo for example possibly hinting one of the coldest spells of winter for a very long time and people are still moaning about their area not getting hardly much snow or whatever. this type of set up that ecm would almost easily give us a potential of a re run of 47 or 63, but people are still getting worked up. what can you do?

[danm]

Well if the ECM and METO charts come off times are changing for the UK winters,there was a hint of this last year in DEC and FEB,but the DEC cold spell never really got there.Its just astonishing how much blocking is taking place this winter,as a child in the 80s i remember seeing an Easterly on the BBC weather MANY TIMES and just used to to think it was a normal part of UK winters, untill 1987 when they just suddenly became very tame and infrequent.Lets just hope these charts really happen because after so many let downs, mild winters,lame easterlys,48 HR cold snaps my god we ALL deserve it.

Edited December 27, 2009 by danm

[kold weather]

The ecm is a mega cold run but my only concern is whether this upcoming wintry spell has enough ensemble support.

I wouldn't worry about the ensembls to be honest with the big three agreeing with the low pressure placement between Tuesday-Thursday. This is really important feature as the milder ensemble members are all further north with the low which means the cold air doesn't really dig down AND the ridge/upper high that protects the UK from any SW attack from a LP can';t come down and we are wide open if that were to happen...

However the big three all agree generally on a track far enough south that this isn't a huge risk. A few ensembles also rapidly break down the global -ve AO/NAO pattern however these are very likely way to progressive, esp when you consider just how primed we are for a -ve NAO.

[West is Best]

Anyone picking up any 'noise' on why the GFS is seemingly performing the way it is at the moment? What are they saying across the pond for instance?

(It might be right of course, but its the synoptics which just seem too damned weird to make sense.)

[snowlover2009]

Well if the ECM and METO charts come off times are changing for the UK winters,there was a hint of this last year in DEC and FEB,but the DEC cold spell never really got there.Its just astonishing how much blocking is taking place this winter,as a child in the 80s i remember seeing an Easterly on the BBC weather MANY TIMES and just used to to think it was a normal part of UK winters, untill 1987 when they just suddenly became very tame and infrequent.Lets just hope these charts really happen because after so many let downs, mild winters,lame easterlys,48 HR cold snaps my god we ALL deserve it.

decades usually change. like the last 2 decades have been milder, the 70s and 60s were cold for winters. we are heading into a new decade, could we be expecting a different type of uk winters> already this winter is showing hints imo.

[grab my graupel]

Link to the new Model thread is below - will close this shortly