Wales Cymru Cold Spell Discussion

[andymusic]

andy location graig what u think ov the set up

Should get us some snow tomorrow but it could be a lot leading into wednesday as well - just keep your eyes on the radar!

[top data]

u at pencoedcae or some thing with att

[andymusic]

In the short term, the GFS is more accurate than the ensembles and this should make a difference. However absolutely spot in relation to the caution being needed it may still move east.

NMM does tend to agree with the GFS in some respects, these are 24hr precipitation totals.

I'll take 20cms no problem - looking very good

u at pencoedcae or some thing with att

could be???

[Marcus_surfer]

Jackone, can you tell me how this system is expected to push slightly westwards again into S/E wales and SW england, when are the winds due to shift Northeasterly/Easterly?

[J10]

Heres a link to the Netweather guide to the ensembles:

http://forum.netweat...__fromsearch__1 < This explains it well

The ensembles can give you confidence in a situation if many of memebers are going for the same situation:

http://charts.netwea...e~-~Swansea.png

Notice how all them lines (members) for upper air temps (T850) go below -5C and down to -10C up until the 13th Jan so you have more confidence in it staying cold until around then. After this they become more spread out as they often do indicating some uncertainty, although you can see the general trend is for them to rise above -5C later in the period.

Indeed Very good certainty about staying cold until the 13th. A big scatter after that, however there have been some big changes in ensembles output in recent days, and past the 13th is very much in the air. As an Example ECM still has us in a very cold flow.

Last post from me tonight, good luck, hope you all see the snow and be safe out there.

[andymusic]

Jackone, can you tell me how this system is expected to push slightly westwards again into S/E wales and SW england, when are the winds due to shift Northeasterly/Easterly?

There'll be a wrap around from a developing low which will place itself hopefull right above us moving the precip around itself as it moves through

[Jayfromcardiff]

There'll be a wrap around from a developing low which will place itself hopefull right above us moving the precip around itself as it moves through

Do you think we will get much snow tonight?

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

In the short term, the GFS is more accurate than the ensembles and this should make a difference. However absolutely spot in relation to the caution being needed it may still move east.

NMM does tend to agree with the GFS in some respects, these are 24hr precipitation totals.

That is interesting it does seem to focus the larger precipitation amounts on more SW/Western areas which is good for us.

Good luck everyone, hope we all see the snow.

[Wales123098]

http://metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=CF15 I LIKE THIS!

[J10]

Jackone, can you tell me how this system is expected to push slightly westwards again into S/E wales and SW england, when are the winds due to shift Northeasterly/Easterly?

OK Very Last post

An area of low pressure is developing tomorrow over SW England. It is initially set to move east due as it powers itself up. With the wind direction from the NE, you would expect it to move south west. But with the power of the developing low pressure system, it could go east.

Sorry for such a woolly answer.

[andymusic]

Do you think we will get much snow tonight?

nope - not in south wales - should start in the morning, sometime after 6am - only light at first as the "1st front" moves in from north wales

[Jamie.]

In the short term, the GFS is more accurate than the ensembles and this should make a difference. However absolutely spot in relation to the caution being needed it may still move east.

NMM does tend to agree with the GFS in some respects, these are 24hr precipitation totals.

That would be great for me, but a nightmare for the M4 Corridoor, 29cm!

[Jayfromcardiff]

nope - not in south wales - should start in the morning, sometime after 6am - only light at first as the "1st front" moves in from north wales

Lol, college will be open then grrrr.

[andymusic]

Lol, college will be open then grrrr.

heavier stuff should happen later tomorrow afternoon and overnight into wednesday so you might have probs wednesday morning!!!!!

[Icequeen]

http://metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/today.asp?zipcode=CF15 I LIKE THIS!

Just look at that link with swansea post code WOW hope it happens

[dyl232]

hopefully to see a coverin of snow here in north wales by mornin

[Jamie.]

Lol, college will be open then grrrr.

heavier stuff should happen later tomorrow afternoon and overnight into wednesday so you might have probs wednesday morning!!!!!

or worse, you could get stuck in college...

[kold weather]

Quite a tricky call but the NAE and GFS both suggest a good dumping of snow is possible, esp in more SE/S locations of Wales however of course its quite possible this shifts again, esp given deeper lows have a habit of ending up further NE relative to where the models were expecting due to the Beta effect (where a deeper LP will tend to end up being a little more NE simply because of the rotation of the earth and the effects on it)

However saying all that I think given the evolution even if there is a shift in the main low I'd be sitting very happily in more SE parts of Wales tonight.

[scoggs]

Just look at that link with swansea post code WOW hope it happens

Looks good for the Barry area as well, would be nice for the kids(oohh!!! maybe nice for me as well with maybe the possibility of no work

[dingdong]

looking forward to tomorrow now.

came across this on another forum hope its right

http://www.planet-watch.org/forum/showthread.php?p=317722#post317722

and

http://www.planet-watch.org/forum/showthread.php?p=317688#post317688

[Icequeen]

Looks good for the Barry area as well, would be nice for the kids(oohh!!! maybe nice for me as well with maybe the possibility of no work

I am on the same wavelength , although if it comes in the afternoon kids will be inschool and it will be hell to get them

[BranMan]

Currently looking good for Wales tomorrow - should get us some snow but it could be a massive amount leading into wednesday!!!!!!!!!

Dereks an icequeen too

[scoggs]

MMMmmm!!!! looking at the metoffice and bbc websites, I won't get any snow

[swales]

looking forward to tomorrow now.

came across this on another forum hope its right

http://www.planet-watch.org/forum/showthread.php?p=317722#post317722

and

http://www.planet-watch.org/forum/showthread.php?p=317688#post317688

Damn, he has better paint skills than me

[andymusic]

MMMmmm!!!! looking at the metoffice and bbc websites, I won't get any snow

I'm sure you will - anyway see you all tomorrow ready for the kick off and have fun!!!!!!!!!