End Of The christmas pudding ?.

[stewfox]

Some people felt given 20 years of mildish winters (excluding last year which was seen as a blip or not wide spread enough) effectively meant we couldn't get a 47 or 63 type winter again. ie wide spread pre longed cold and snow across a large part of the UK.

Some felt it was just unfavourable synoptics and 20 years although long in human terms is a 'blip' in the scheme of things. The proper synoptic could deliver a potential 47,63 etc again.

Regardless of what happens for the rest of the winter do you see it as another blip with a return to more milder winters next year or a return to a more vaired 80s style weather ?.

Has the 'default' mild winters now been 'switched off' for the foreseeable future?

[Tom D]

I have no doubt we'll be talking about 'the winter of 09/10' for many a year to come. I also think next winter we'll have so many high expectations for a repeat of this winter and I can picture a lot of disappointment. I'd also like to think a change might have occurred as late winter 09 we had some good snowfall and cold, as well as snow in October in 2008 here.

I wasn't alive during the 80s so I'm not really sure what they were like.

[Mark Bayley]

I never really liked Christmas pudding, prefer chocolate cake or strawberry cheese cake

[drgl]

Hmm, at the moment this winter doesn't rank compared to my memories of the 80's. I have noticed a return to colder winters steadily since around 2002, some of the later half 90's winters were dire. Maybe my memory is failing me though! If you search some of my older posts you will see i wasn't the only one to notice the trend was down from this time either. This winter isn't a patch on '63 looking at the photos i have!!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly not, but I suppose only thinking about my area! ive seen way snowier, better cold spells than that 90's and earlier, yes a great cold spell, but Ive not seen a frost now since 9th Jan, over 2 weeks ago, last sub zero minimum over 2 weeks ago, not good enough for January

I wouldnt say its been a decent winter yet, but IF I see no more snow this season then a fairly crappy winter season (and that is a possibility), no snow last winter after 9th Feb

so yes other areas stockport etc have had a legendary cold spell, but mine i wouldnt describe as legendary

[Nick L]

The idea that some were suggesting that we could never get a classic winter spell was nonsense, and has been proved this winter.

There is no doubt we have had an unusually warm run of winters, but then again we are in a warming world - it is not down to the so called "modern e*a" IMO.

[Snowyowl9]

November was very mild this time wasn`t it.

The first lying snow on december 18th and since them there hasn`t been a day where there is no snow somewhere,still some lying snow about now and another cold spell to come magic.

Even light snowgrains today.

Edited January 25, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Ben_Cambs]

Well Im sure many people on here would like a return to 80's style winters! At the moment I wouldnt rank this winter "exceptional" but certainly last winter and this winter it has been more cold than mild. IMO we are going into a period of colder winters. If we see another good cold spell in Feb then I might have to revise my words.

The reason for this is that Cambridgeshire hasnt seen decent snowfall since the 17th December, when the spell started. Ive had plenty of days of lying snow, but not much compared to some areas, such as Bucks, Central Southern England etc. But its nice to see snow lying for a good amount of time. Lets just see what the rest of winter brings

Edited January 25, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Snowyowl9]

As this winter currently stands at this time this is a legendary winter I make it the coldest since 1981/82

[damianslaw]

As this winter currently stands at this time this is a legendary winter I make it the coldest since 1981/82

Agree at this current point in time its been the best winter for cold and snow since 81/82, however, if Feb delivers just average conditions with no widespread snowfall, overall 1985/86 and 1995/96 will have eclipsed, 95/96 apart from the first 20 days of Jan was very wintry.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is some evidence that we are moving back towards an era of synoptics more similar to the 1940s through to the 1980s, when -ve NAO and AO were more frequent giving colder snowier winters to north-west Europe. Such an era would not give winters that were, on average, as cold or snowy as those of the 1940s-1980s because the Northern Hemisphere temperature has warmed by about 0.5C since then, but they would still be somewhat colder and snowier than we've been used to.

But it is also possible that this winter could be a blip. There is the "Hale winter" theory which pointed to a couple of cold winters around 2008-2010 (though this theory becomes harder to justify once we go back to before 1895) and just natural variability either side of the mean.

[Snowyowl9]

Agree at this current point in time its been the best winter for cold and snow since 81/82, however, if Feb delivers just average conditions with no widespread snowfall, overall 1985/86 and 1995/96 will have eclipsed, 95/96 apart from the first 20 days of Jan was very wintry.

1985/86 was a very slow starter it really only started the last week of Jan and ended first week of March.

December 1985 was very mild and wet and remember some forecasters saying we were going to get a mostly mild wet december this time oh well.

Edited January 25, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[damianslaw]

1985/86 was a very slow starter it really only started the last week of Jan and ended first week of March.

December 1985 was very mild and wet and remember some forecasters saying we were going to get a mostly mild wet december this time oh well.

Granted winter 85/86 was a slow starter with a mild wet december, however, when I think of 85/86 I also take into account Nov 85 which although not classed as winter, was certainly very wintry in some respects cancelling out a bit the mild Dec. March 86 was very cold, so overall although Dec 85 was mild and Jan 86 just a bit below average, when combined the period Nov 85 - March 86 was a notably cold one.

Alot hinges on February, as I said a mild Feb with little snow will for me make this winter less memorable than winter 95/96. Would be interesting if Mr Data could produce the overall average CET figures for the following winters so to guage how this winter in CET terms compares.

Winter 78/79

Winter 81/82

Winter 84/85

Winter 85/86

Winter 90/91

Winter 95/96

So far this winter has been very similiar in nature to both winter 81/82 and 95/96 almost uncanny in some respects especially 81/82 with the cold breaking down mid Jan, however, it started much later this year than in 81/82. Whereas, it has been colder overall than winter 95/96 had delivered up until this point, we have had very similiar synoptics to what happened in winter 95/96, another Feb 96 this year would be great.

[Optimus Prime]

Almost certainly we'll be back to the normal Mild winter. After such a mild run 2005-2007 we were almost certainly waitying for a few coldies to crop up. Just like the extremely mild second half to 2006. The second halfs of 2007, 2008 and 2009 were fairly close to normal. Part of the flattening process.

Certainly 2008/2009 was a notably cold winter for more southern districts (a little more then a degree below normal) while this winter has been notably cold for more Northern districts (probably around 3.0c below normal upto January)

I'd compare this winter to 1996/1997 so far.

Edited January 25, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Don]

So far this winter has been very similiar in nature to both winter 81/82 and 95/96 almost uncanny in some respects especially 81/82 with the cold breaking down mid Jan, however, it started much later this year than in 81/82. Whereas, it has been colder overall than winter 95/96 had delivered up until this point, we have had very similiar synoptics to what happened in winter 95/96, another Feb 96 this year would be great.

Agreed, another Feb 96 would be the icing on the cake for this winter! However, for my region at least, this winter has been far snowier than that of 95/96, which for snowfall alone was rather disappointing given the excellent synoptics we had during that time. I hope to see at least a little bit of snow towards the weekend, although it could easily be dry, cold and sunny, which TBH would at least be seasonal. Will have to wait and see....

[reef]

Granted winter 85/86 was a slow starter with a mild wet december, however, when I think of 85/86 I also take into account Nov 85 which although not classed as winter, was certainly very wintry in some respects cancelling out a bit the mild Dec. March 86 was very cold, so overall although Dec 85 was mild and Jan 86 just a bit below average, when combined the period Nov 85 - March 86 was a notably cold one.

Alot hinges on February, as I said a mild Feb with little snow will for me make this winter less memorable than winter 95/96. Would be interesting if Mr Data could produce the overall average CET figures for the following winters so to guage how this winter in CET terms compares.

Winter 78/79

Winter 81/82

Winter 84/85

Winter 85/86

Winter 90/91

Winter 95/96

So far this winter has been very similiar in nature to both winter 81/82 and 95/96 almost uncanny in some respects especially 81/82 with the cold breaking down mid Jan, however, it started much later this year than in 81/82. Whereas, it has been colder overall than winter 95/96 had delivered up until this point, we have had very similiar synoptics to what happened in winter 95/96, another Feb 96 this year would be great.

Indeed, 1985/86 had an unimpressive December but it was remarkable for persistence of cold from as early as November right until late April. November was the coldest in my records, with a mean of 3.7C and had a particularly potent cold spell in the the last week. So much so that we had two consecutive ice days and a min of -7.8C (which remains the coldest on record). December 1986 wasnt mild throughout though, after Christmas it was exceptionally cold (mins of -6.7C and -7.5C - not beaten after until 1995) and a colder spell in the second week. January was rather cold with 19 days failing to reach 5C and 10 air frosts. February was entirely something else, the max temp was 3.8C all month with persistent snowcover, 22 air frosts, 4 ice-days and a min of -12.1C (the coldest on record). March was then cool with a max temp of just 12.0C and then the first 19 days of April didnt record any double digit maxima. The first half had a mean of just 3.8C! The 22nd December - 19th April had just 12 days with maxima in double figures and 39 air frosts.

So far this winter is certainly notable here, with 18 days of lying snow (the most ironically since 1985/86) but so far the cold has been pretty concentrated into a 5 week period. 2008/09 was rather similar in regards to lying snow. The first lying snow of the winter here was 2nd February and last 13th February. A short season in that regard but at least the cold spanned a longer period (though still not very long).

[mackerel sky]

I'll still be talking about February 2009 ahead of December/January 2010 in this area in terms of snowfall. For my parents up in North Yorks, this will have been the most wintery spell since 1995/1996 with over a month of lying snow and > 16 inches. Didn't achieve that here, not even close. The deepest snow was actually before Christmas ~ 5-6 inches. Post New Year snow, whilst regular, struggled to put more that 3 inches on the ground. So no where close to February 2009. A total thaw occurred twice, most notably on Christmas Day!

[AderynCoch]

CETs:

Winter 78/79 = 1.6

Winter 81/82 = 2.6

Winter 84/85 = 2.7

Winter 85/86 = 2.9

Winter 90/91 = 3.0

Winter 95/96 = 3.0

Winter 09/10 so far = 2.3

[reef]

CETs:

Winter 78/79 = 1.6

Winter 81/82 = 2.6

Winter 84/85 = 2.7

Winter 85/86 = 2.9

Winter 90/91 = 3.0

Winter 95/96 = 3.0

Winter 09/10 so far = 2.3

The coldest winters since 1895:

1962/63: -0.33C

1946/47: 1.13C

1917/18: 1.47C

1939/40: 1.47C

1978/78: 1.57C

1928/29: 1.70C

1941/42: 2.20C

2009/10: 2.28C (so far)

The next mildest in the list is 1981/82 (2.57C). As long as the remaining 34 days of this winter have a mean under 3.05C, then 2009/10 takes the position of 8th coldest since 1895! Pretty remarkable really.

[Snowyowl9]

Just when you thought winter was over and we have a potent N-ly followed by a mega northern blocking as we enter feb,this winter just keeps the mild away.