General Climate Change Discussion Continued:

[Iceberg]

Don't all the records come from the same dataset (the 'adjusted' one that is)

No not at all Matt, the Sat records of RSS and UAH does not contain any land measurements taken in this way.

And, so it seems, many such creatures survive for quite a while!

Maybe some need to be put out of their misery.

[laserguy]

But it's hardly 'amazing' at all, that Right Wing Think Thanks feel the need to bamboozle the public by deliberately confusing weather with climate?? Much more in-keeping with laissez-faire economics than accept that December and January were both notably warm by GLOBAL standards??

Looks like I was wrong all along - even when much of the populated world is digging itself out of ice and snow (50 American States covered recently!) the AGW monster rumbles along. Still, what folk see out their window and what they are told are two very different things... It really has gone beyond the ridiculous and nothing more than a source of grim amusement,these days. How anyone can talk about 'warming' with a straight face is beyond me - like coming home to find the missus in the sack with the milkman while she insists that it's "not what it looks like"!

[Thundery wintry showers]

But again, are we seeing a global shift somewhat.

How can the NH be 'notably warmer' and covered in more snow at the same time? So perhaps the notably warmer applies in the SH, while areas of the NH start to cool due to other forces. (Gulf Stream etc.)

All this right wing crap is starting to wear a little thin.

The Northern Hemisphere pattern during winter 2009/10, in stark contrast to most recent winters, has seen cold anomalies over Eurasia and warm anomalies in most other regions.

It is also quite possible for a NH to be warmer and be covered in more snow if the areas that are normally marginal for snow cover are in the minority of colder-than-average areas, or if higher temperatures are accompanied by higher precipitation in areas that often see relatively little snow because it's too dry rather than because it's too warm.

The whole world is moving more right wing, so get used to it. (See report in Saturday Times)

No, if we "get used to it", we'll get whatever we put up with. If we don't "get used to it", there's a chance the trend might be halted. I'm afraid I don't see a philosophy of "man was created to serve Capitalism, and AGW is a myth because if it wasn't, it would threaten laissez-faire capitalism" as being a good one for the world to move towards, especially when we have a sustainability problem alongside any AGW.

In the UK, the trend towards higher economic liberty is occurring alongside a trend towards a more authoritarian approach to matters of personal liberty (i.e. '1 or 2 o'clock' instead of '3 o'clock' on the political spectrum). An authoritarian could justify a ban on pretty much anything by using a similar argument, "the UK is moving more authoritarian so get used to it."

[stewfox]

Christy not agreeing with the IPCC is hardly news, maybe a sign though that the times are running out of anti IPCC stories.....

Funny how he makes all these comments, but forgets that his own global temperature record UAH actually shows very similar warming to the very things he's disagreeing with.

An imagine of a headless chicken is in my mind.

What I liked about the Times article was this

--------

He said that the scheme to create what he called a “Wikipedia for climate change” was at an early stage but the intention was to establish an online network of climate science research available to anyone with access to the internet and subject to permanent peer review by other scientists.

------------

I think most people just want open informed stats and debate

[Gowon]

But it's hardly 'amazing' at all, that Right Wing Think Thanks feel the need to bamboozle the public by deliberately confusing weather with climate?? Much more in-keeping with laissez-faire economics than accept that December and January were both notably warm by GLOBAL standards??

Bamboozle the public? Isn't that what the IPPC and the BBC have been doing for a while now? I find it surprising that so much snow hasn't left you amazed, especially how cold it's been in your neck of the woods, don't tell me all that snow up there hasn't amazed you.

[Thundery wintry showers]

What I liked about the Times article was this

--------

He said that the scheme to create what he called a “Wikipedia for climate change” was at an early stage but the intention was to establish an online network of climate science research available to anyone with access to the internet and subject to permanent peer review by other scientists.

------------

I think most people just want open informed stats and debate

Peer review does have potential for confirmation bias issues, but no review system is perfect, and unless some kind of reviewing is used, it risks descending into a "free for all" with plenty of uninformed opinions from doom-mongers and laissez-faire economists alike dominating the discussion.

Bamboozle the public? Isn't that what the IPPC and the BBC have been doing for a while now? I find it surprising that so much snow hasn't left you amazed, especially how cold it's been in your neck of the woods, don't tell me all that snow up there hasn't amazed you.

Bears out Pete's point perfectly, confusing weather with climate. I addressed the point re. snow earlier.

The BBC may well have been biased at times over AGW, hence the recent Ofcom investigation on it, but the BBC and IPCC haven't been bamboozling people on anywhere near the same level as those who insist that an unsuual amount of snow in certain parts of the world negates the fact that the global mean temperature anomaly is still strongly positive.

[Methuselah]

Bamboozle the public? Isn't that what the IPPC and the BBC have been doing for a while now? I find it surprising that so much snow hasn't left you amazed, especially how cold it's been in your neck of the woods, don't tell me all that snow up there hasn't amazed you.

I'm not sure that 'amazed' is the word I'd use, HG - snow is a part of the climate I'm in...

To me, the 'Chistmas Pudding' idea that we'll never again experience a cold and snowy winter has always been suspect - and this year has proved it - it is not-only possible, it is inevitable? But, that does not detract from the fact that we are in a warming world...

Perhaps it's time to cease with all the denial, and try explain what is actually happening?? Inverness is NOT the entire world...

[Gowon]

The Northern Hemisphere pattern during winter 2009/10, in stark contrast to most recent winters, has seen cold anomalies over Eurasia and warm anomalies in most other regions.

It is also quite possible for a NH to be warmer and be covered in more snow if the areas that are normally marginal for snow cover are in the minority of colder-than-average areas, or if higher temperatures are accompanied by higher precipitation in areas that often see relatively little snow because it's too dry rather than because it's too warm.

No, if we "get used to it", we'll get whatever we put up with. If we don't "get used to it", there's a chance the trend might be halted. I'm afraid I don't see a philosophy of "man was created to serve Capitalism, and AGW is a myth because if it wasn't, it would threaten laissez-faire capitalism" as being a good one for the world to move towards, especially when we have a sustainability problem alongside any AGW.

In the UK, the trend towards higher economic liberty is occurring alongside a trend towards a more authoritarian approach to matters of personal liberty (i.e. '1 or 2 o'clock' instead of '3 o'clock' on the political spectrum). An authoritarian could justify a ban on pretty much anything by using a similar argument, "the UK is moving more authoritarian so get used to it."

I would've thought a warmer world equals to less snow covered areas.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Higrade

[Thundery wintry showers]

On average, yes, but you still get short-term variability either side of the mean.

[jethro]

There seems to be quite a lot of talk about globally warm temperatures versus NH snow cover and cold USA states....

There's been much talk over the years about how The Little Ice Age wasn't felt universally across the entire globe, it was more focussed upon the Northern Hemisphere. There's also been much talk about the lack of Solar activity back then and also concern about the prolonged minima we've just experienced together with the projected quieter next Solar cycle or two.

Is it possible we could be looking at a period of colder, snowier winters in the Northern Hemisphere? If so, will it eventually impact upon global temperatures? Anyone fancy exploring this idea - is it worth a separate thread?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think the possibility can be ruled out- I read a few papers a couple of years ago that strongly suggested that the changes in Northern Hemisphere winter synoptics in the last couple of decades were too strong to be attributable to global warming alone, and that a switch back to colder winter synoptics was potentially coming upon us.

I think the Northern Hemisphere circulation does have an impact upon global temperatures, but only a fairly modest one, and mainly during the winter. Strong westerlies and +ve NAO favours a warm Eurasia and cold anomalies over the Atlantic sector, and since temperature departures from normal can be much larger over continents than over landmasses, encouraging an anomalously warm Northern Hemisphere. Conversely, if we get a strongly negative NAO we see a cold Eurasia and warm Atlantic sector encouraging an anomalously cool Northern Hemisphere. Of course there is also the American continent to consider- a pattern favouring a cold USA/Canada but warm Pacific/Atlantic will also tend to produce a cooler Northern Hemisphere, but to a lesser extent than with the much larger continent of Eurasia.

According to the "Global and regional climate in 1996" article in Weather, the dominance of cold continents and warm oceans was a large factor behind the drop in Northern Hemisphere warmth in 1996, flanked on either side by record warm years (for the time) in 1995 and 1997.

Personally I doubt that such changes in circulation are likely to have much of an impact on overall global warming, but if the synoptics associated with the so-called "modern winter" reverse themselves then we may see the anomalous warmth in the Northern Hemisphere fall to levels that are more consistent with that of the Southern Hemisphere.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[Solar Cycles]

There seems to be quite a lot of talk about globally warm temperatures versus NH snow cover and cold USA states....

There's been much talk over the years about how The Little Ice Age wasn't felt universally across the entire globe, it was more focussed upon the Northern Hemisphere. There's also been much talk about the lack of Solar activity back then and also concern about the prolonged minima we've just experienced together with the projected quieter next Solar cycle or two.

Is it possible we could be looking at a period of colder, snowier winters in the Northern Hemisphere? If so, will it eventually impact upon global temperatures? Anyone fancy exploring this idea - is it worth a separate thread?

It would certainly cast further doubt, as to whether AGW is having much impact on global temps.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Any particular reasons as to why it would do this? Surely it's a mode of natural variability that can, to at least some degree, happen independently of AGW.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

The Northern Hemisphere pattern during winter 2009/10, in stark contrast to most recent winters, has seen cold anomalies over Eurasia and warm anomalies in most other regions.

It is also quite possible for a NH to be warmer and be covered in more snow if the areas that are normally marginal for snow cover are in the minority of colder-than-average areas, or if higher temperatures are accompanied by higher precipitation in areas that often see relatively little snow because it's too dry rather than because it's too warm.

No, if we "get used to it", we'll get whatever we put up with. If we don't "get used to it", there's a chance the trend might be halted. I'm afraid I don't see a philosophy of "man was created to serve Capitalism, and AGW is a myth because if it wasn't, it would threaten laissez-faire capitalism" as being a good one for the world to move towards, especially when we have a sustainability problem alongside any AGW.

In the UK, the trend towards higher economic liberty is occurring alongside a trend towards a more authoritarian approach to matters of personal liberty (i.e. '1 or 2 o'clock' instead of '3 o'clock' on the political spectrum). An authoritarian could justify a ban on pretty much anything by using a similar argument, "the UK is moving more authoritarian so get used to it."

So, warm = more snow, why did it rain last night then? I think what we see here is a case of "oh, damn, what are we going to explain this away with"

How many more years of more snow will it take for the stance to change? How many thought last year was a one off?

Oh and just for the record, right wing isn't all down to economics, suprisingly. If you actually read the article is talks about countries generally becoming more right wing, Australia, Germany, USA and the UK all have or are likely to have a right wing party in power, with the socialists barely hanging on in France, Italy and Spain.

Anyway, the article was to do with the AGW debate down under and the opposition parties stance in relation to public opinion. (Amongst other things) Very interesting it was to. I can't find it online, but was in Saturdays paper.

Oh, and the UK while becoming more conservative (with a small 'c') in financial matters is becoming far more liberal (with a small 'l') in social matters.

[jethro]

It would certainly cast further doubt, as to whether AGW is having much impact on global temps.

Speaking as a fence sitter from no where land, in the middle of sceptics/pro AGW, I can't see that it would.

Both the LIA and MWP are believed to have been less than global in their impacts, if we can discern an impact in the NH from this prolonged minima, it may be possible to see similarities between now and times past. If we can discern the impacts of both the LIIA and the MWP on a regional level, it may be possible to isolate more firmly the impact CO2 has had upon temperatures in this part of the world. This won't disprove the theory of AGW but it may give a clearer idea of the scale, afterall temperatures have been rising more in the NH than the SH.

When it comes to global temperatures, any cooling in the NH as a result of shifting weather patterns perhaps as a result of a prolonged minima, could well be balanced out by warming in the SH, the net result being a static temperature trend or indeed, still rising - nothing in climate happens very quickly.

I recall seeing something a while ago about the impacts of a prolonged Solar minima being felt first in Northern USA and China, I'll see if I can find it again.

[Solar Cycles]

Speaking as a fence sitter from no where land, in the middle of sceptics/pro AGW, I can't see that it would.

Both the LIA and MWP are believed to have been less than global in their impacts, if we can discern an impact in the NH from this prolonged minima, it may be possible to see similarities between now and times past. If we can discern the impacts of both the LIIA and the MWP on a regional level, it may be possible to isolate more firmly the impact CO2 has had upon temperatures in this part of the world. This won't disprove the theory of AGW but it may give a clearer idea of the scale, afterall temperatures have been rising more in the NH than the SH.

When it comes to global temperatures, any cooling in the NH as a result of shifting weather patterns perhaps as a result of a prolonged minima, could well be balanced out by warming in the SH, the net result being a static temperature trend or indeed, still rising - nothing in climate happens very quickly.

I recall seeing something a while ago about the impacts of a prolonged Solar minima being felt first in Northern USA and China, I'll see if I can find it again.

That's if the MWP and LIA where regional and not global, the problem there is a combination of unreliable proxies, and sparse data from the SH. Certainly a good idea on starting another thread on it Jethro!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Speaking as a fence sitter from no where land, in the middle of sceptics/pro AGW, I can't see that it would.

Both the LIA and MWP are believed to have been less than global in their impacts, if we can discern an impact in the NH from this prolonged minima, it may be possible to see similarities between now and times past. If we can discern the impacts of both the LIIA and the MWP on a regional level, it may be possible to isolate more firmly the impact CO2 has had upon temperatures in this part of the world. This won't disprove the theory of AGW but it may give a clearer idea of the scale, afterall temperatures have been rising more in the NH than the SH.

When it comes to global temperatures, any cooling in the NH as a result of shifting weather patterns perhaps as a result of a prolonged minima, could well be balanced out by warming in the SH, the net result being a static temperature trend or indeed, still rising - nothing in climate happens very quickly.

I recall seeing something a while ago about the impacts of a prolonged Solar minima being felt first in Northern USA and China, I'll see if I can find it again.

The last ice-age came about in 6 months. Which I find pretty quick. Comparatively.

[Methuselah]

The last ice-age came about in 6 months. Which I find pretty quick. Comparatively.

Did it???

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Did it???

Yes, according to new research a few months ago.

[Thundery wintry showers]

So, warm = more snow, why did it rain last night then? I think what we see here is a case of "oh, damn, what are we going to explain this away with"

How many more years of more snow will it take for the stance to change? How many thought last year was a one off?

Oh and just for the record, right wing isn't all down to economics, suprisingly. If you actually read the article is talks about countries generally becoming more right wing, Australia, Germany, USA and the UK all have or are likely to have a right wing party in power, with the socialists barely hanging on in France, Italy and Spain.

Anyway, the article was to do with the AGW debate down under and the opposition parties stance in relation to public opinion. (Amongst other things) Very interesting it was to. I can't find it online, but was in Saturdays paper.

Oh, and the UK while becoming more conservative (with a small 'c') in financial matters is becoming far more liberal (with a small 'l') in social matters.

If the mean global temperature is still at near-record levels, it doesn't matter if parts of the Northern Hemisphere have had more snow than in most recent winters. "Global warming" means that the globe, on average, gets warmer. It does not mean that all parts of the globe immediately become warmer, or that the warmth is one continuous line instead of arriving in fits and bursts.

Regarding the right wing, I've come across two main schools of thought: one measures left-right in economic terms, and has a separate axis for matters of social/personal liberty, the other defines "right" as referring to minimal state intervention in the economy but high state intervention in matters of social/personal liberty. The latter tends, in my experience, to prevail among the general public and works well for our current crop of political parties, though it starts to fall down when considering the likes of Milton Freidman who was a free market economist but believed in both high economic and social freedom- or the BNP which is authoritarian but its economics don't strongly embrace the free market.

I don't see any evidence of the UK becoming more liberal in social matters- unless it means more liberal for the authorities? We are certainly far more liberal socially than we were in the 1950s, but there are strong signs of a reversal with increased use of prohibition and surveillance to legislate for the minority who abuse things in the name of Health and Safety, and banning pleasurable activities is seen as a non-issue on the basis that economy matters and pleasure is non-essential. Thus, I suggest that UK is becoming more right wing by both measures- and I see the "authoritarianism" side of the trend to be more of a threat, as it happens, than the economics side.

[Methuselah]

Yes, according to new research a few months ago.

Based on the same 'proxy' data that deniers have been dismissing for an eternity???

But - having said that - the notion does seem quite reasonable???

Tipping points and all that!

[Dartmoor_Matt]

And our survey says...

BBC News

Anyway, thats not really climate change related.

I thought the conversation was drifting towards the possibility of one area of the globe experiencing an ice-age (or similar) which other areas see warming. Neither of which is out of the question as far as I know. Especially as this year and last we have seen pretty much cooler temps in the same areas as this year while other areas have warmer temps.

Based on the same 'proxy' data that deniers have been dismissing for an eternity???

But - having said that - the notion does seem quite reasonable???

Tipping points and all that!

Did we have temperature records from 10,000+ years ago?

I'm not going to go and dig out the information, I've read it already, but I'd of thought it was entirely plausible to have one winter with cold temperatures and then a cold summer and hey presto.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Tolerance of homosexuality is only one issue relating to social liberty- it's a stretch to say that we're getting more liberal socially in general because of one example of where we are!

Regarding the ice age theory, there is always a chance that, at least temporarily, a warming planet could feature some areas warming rapidly and others cooling a little, and that over the next couple of decades north-west Europe could be one of those regions. I think an ice age is extremely unlikely to happen in our lifetimes though unless a very dramatic unforeseen shift occurs in the global climate.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not going to go and dig out the information, I've read it already, but I'd of thought it was entirely plausible to have one winter with cold temperatures and then a cold summer and hey presto.

We'll have to wait for one then eh?

[Dartmoor_Matt]

We'll have to wait for one then eh?

One what?

I think you'll find it was all, like most things on here, pretty hypothetical.