Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

[kold weather]

Two things that probably tip the balance in favour of an historic winter:

1: a month period with the CET around 0C, which is impressive even for pre 88 period IMO...

2: A proper countrywide snow event as well as other more regional events with some areas getting exceptional foot snowfalls at both ends of the country.

What people say about where you live is huge, for some places this may not have been a stunning winter, whilst I'd imagine for areas close to say Reading area, this is probably one of the best winters for a long time in that regard.

IMO this winter has been historic, not quite legendary (as I'vbe said before, the likes of 78-79,62-63, etc) but I think it fits neatly into the category below it which IMO is historic, afterall we've seen a 30 day cold spell every bit the equal of most months from the 80s (people may say thats not true but the stats don't lie in that respect!) and thus I'd put this winter into the historic category.

I'd rank this a B+ type winter right now!

Saying that, for Scotland this must be knocking on the door of legendary, what happens in the next 10 days may go a decent way to seeing whether its got the might to kick that door down up there!

Edited February 14, 2010 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

1981-82 is often mentioned but what is often forgotten is that there was also a notable period of mild weather as well and this shows up well with the CET splits

16th December 1981-15th January 1982 CET: -0.3C

16th December 2009-15th January 2010 CET: 0.4C

16th January-13th February 1982 CET: 6.3C

16th January-13th February 2010 CET: 3.2C

29th January-13th February 1982 was very mild with a CET of 7.2 cf to the same period for 2010 with 2.7C

If we take the start of the cold spell in December 1981 which was in the 8th then the CET for the period

8th December 1981-13th February 1982 CET: 2.1C

and compare it to

8th December 2009-13th February 2010 CET: 2.0C

Edited February 14, 2010 by Mr_Data

[LomondSnowstorm]

Two things that probably tip the balance in favour of an historic winter:

1: a month period with the CET around 0C, which is impressive even for pre 88 period IMO...

2: A proper countrywide snow event as well as other more regional events with some areas getting exceptional foot snowfalls at both ends of the country.

What people say about where you live is huge, for some places this may not have been a stunning winter, whilst I'd imagine for areas close to say Reading area, this is probably one of the best winters for a long time in that regard.

IMO this winter has been historic, not quite legendary (as I'vbe said before, the likes of 78-79,62-63, etc) but I think it fits neatly into the category below it which IMO is historic, afterall we've seen a 30 day cold spell every bit the equal of most months from the 80s (people may say thats not true but the stats don't lie in that respect!) and thus I'd put this winter into the historic category.

I'd rank this a B+ type winter right now!

Saying that, for Scotland this must be knocking on the door of legendary, what happens in the next 10 days may go a decent way to seeing whether its got the might to kick that door down up there!

Indeed. IF we can get a good frontal snow event with say 6-8 inches fairly widely I'd say this beats to shreds any winter I've known (which isn't that hard) but I'm sure older members would rank this very highly indeed. Also the coming spell, if it can produce suppressed maxima and low minima, could push the average temperature for Scotland for the month down to around 1C, pushing this to the 3rd or 4th coldest winter since 1914 here. 77/78 and 78/79 were surely snowier for Scotland though.

LS

[kold weather]

1981-82 is often mentioned but what is often forgotten is that there was also a notable period of mild weather as well and this shows up well with the CET splits

16th December 1981-15th January 1982 CET: -0.3C

16th December 2009-15th January 2010 CET: 0.4C

16th January-13th February 1982 CET: 6.3C

16th January-13th February 2010 CET: 3.2C

29th January-13th February 1982 was very mild with a CET of 7.2 cf to the same period for 2010 with 2.7C

If we take the start of the cold spell in December 1981 which was in the 8th then the CET for the period

8th December 1981-13th February 1982 CET: 2.1C

and compare it to

8th December 2009-13th February 2010 CET: 2.0C

Also there was quite a strong, if brief warm-up in early Jan before the second cold plunge which pretty much wiped out the very mild days earlier on.

Perhaps its worth remembering this winter has had a mild/very mild spell, granted it was back in early December 09 but it is part of winter, the difference between the first 10 days and the last 21 days must be quite impressive, possibly somewhat akin to the flip round of Feb 05 and Nov 05?

[johnholmes]

1981-82 is often mentioned but what is often forgotten is that there was also a notable period of mild weather as well and this shows up well with the CET splits

16th December 1981-15th January 1982 CET: -0.3C

16th December 2009-15th January 2010 CET: 0.4C

16th January-13th February 1982 CET: 6.3C

16th January-13th February 2010 CET: 3.2C

29th January-13th February 1982 was very mild with a CET of 7.2 cf to the same period for 2010 with 2.7C

If we take the start of the cold spell in December 1981 which was in the 8th then the CET for the period

8th December 1981-13th February 1982 CET: 2.1C

and compare it to

8th December 2009-13th February 2010 CET: 2.0C

that is an interesting temperature statistic Mr D-I had not realised that this winter even equalled that one, although I did remember the much milder interlude between the two notable cold spells, December and January.

Edited February 14, 2010 by johnholmes

[cheeky_monkey]

Where this winter only makes into the historic category is the lack of mild weather...it has not seen the depth of cold as other winters so it is the lack of any long lasting spell of mild weather that has been the feature and thus lowered the CET value.

we have not seen any blizzards or those deep penetrating frost both day and night even under constant cloud cover...that were a notable feature of cold spells in the past..i cant think of a notable cold winter that did not have them..from my memory they happened in all the 70's 80's even 91 and 95-96 had them.

as for snow we have had one country wide snow event..which effected some areas more than others and thats it...the rest have been regional events with some areas seeing very little..i mean the south west quarter of the country apart from the 6/7th Jan has had very little in the way of snow..and hasnt been that cold either..i dont think the midlands have faired to well for snow either in comparison with times gone by.

it would be interesting to ask the same question in 15 years time how historic this winter is?...i mean this time last year plenty were talking about how cold 2008-9 had been but that seems to have faded and been forgotten some what already.

[Ben_Cambs]

Where this winter only makes into the historic category is the lack of mild weather...it has not seen the depth of cold as other winters so it is the lack of any long lasting spell of mild weather that has been the feature and thus lowered the CET value.

we have not seen any blizzards or those deep penetrating frost both day and night even under constant cloud cover...that were a notable feature of cold spells in the past..i cant think of a notable cold winter that did not have them..from my memory they happened in all the 70's 80's even 91 and 95-96 had them.

as for snow we have had one country wide snow event..which effected some areas more than others and thats it...the rest have been regional events with some areas seeing very little..i mean the south west quarter of the country apart from the 6/7th Jan has had very little in the way of snow..and hasnt been that cold either..i dont think the midlands have faired to well for snow either in comparison with times gone by.

it would be interesting to ask the same question in 15 years time how historic this winter is?...i mean this time last year plenty were talking about how cold 2008-9 had been but that seems to have faded and been forgotten some what already.

True. When I first joined the forum in August, I remember people dismissing this winter because of El Nino, and saying that this winter couldnt of possibly been as good as 08/09, when clearly it has been colder, although for some especially around EA not as snowy. This winter will be remembered for the lack of mild weather, and how dormant the Atlantic has been this winter. I will certainly remember this winter, but I dont know how I will remember it in 10-15 years time, as IMO there has been signs over the past 3-4 years that our winters are getting colder

[kold weather]

Where this winter only makes into the historic category is the lack of mild weather...it has not seen the depth of cold as other winters so it is the lack of any long lasting spell of mild weather that has been the feature and thus lowered the CET value.

Whilst the lack of mildness past the first 10 days of December is indeed true, it HAS been cold even on an historic level at times, for example the first 10 days of Jan were colder then anything the 20th century could muster, including obviously your legendary Jan's, indeed the coldest first 10 days since 1893...and if thats not historic cold, then I honestly don't know what is!

We also had a period of 30 days which was actually sub 0C (granted only just!) and thats obviously very impressive...indeed since 78-79 I'd guess there have only been two colder 30 day periods, obviously in Feb 86 and also between the second half of December and first half of Jan of 81-82...thats it....

So therefore colder then anything 85, 87, 91, 95/96, 96/97, etc could produce, so this winter HAS had deep cold, its possibly rose tinted glasses coming into play there.

[FENDER.]

Cold yes. but not particually snowy.

[cheeky_monkey]

Whilst the lack of mildness past the first 10 days of December is indeed true, it HAS been cold even on an historic level at times, for example the first 10 days of Jan were colder then anything the 20th century could muster, including obviously your legendary Jan's, indeed the coldest first 10 days since 1893...and if thats not historic cold, then I honestly don't know what is!

We also had a period of 30 days which was actually sub 0C (granted only just!) and thats obviously very impressive...indeed since 78-79 I'd guess there have only been two colder 30 day periods, obviously in Feb 86 and also between the second half of December and first half of Jan of 81-82...thats it....

So therefore colder then anything 85, 87, 91, 95/96, 96/97, etc could produce, so this winter HAS had deep cold, its possibly rose tinted glasses coming into play there.

not really..where were the sub zero days???..i dont remember seeing many days that had maxes below 0c..i can find examples in all those years of daytime maxes of well below zero -5c or better across huge swathes of the country..i think it has been the low night time min that have helped this year..often lowest daytime maxes have hovered between -1c and +2c...granted my deep cold may have been short lived in comparison to this winter but they definately surpassed this one every time

[kold weather]

You tell that to those people in Scotland who got a huge dumping, to those got decent falls between the 17-18th of December...and of course the countrywide event of 5-6th of Jan, I can assure you having seen the result firsthand, it was quite impressive, probably 13-14 inches being a top amount I saw, not bad for the area of the world that got that amount, most since 62 in that part of the country I believe.

If you want to see a good indicator of snow amounts, look at TWS signature which has a good snow total for the country for this winter and also previous winters, without seeing through the rest of Feb plus whatever events early Spring could muster we are doing very well at the moment, I'd imagine we are probably snowier then maybe all but 81-82 at the moment, or if not then probably very close with still a decent amount of time to go!

So it has been pretty snowy compared to the long term average, and has contained one exceptional cold spell only bested by 2 other spells in 30 years!

Cheeky, I'm using CET stats, its offically the 3rd coldest 30 day period in the last 30 years if you use the CET average (once again Feb 86 heads and shoulders colder then the rest, 81-82 only JUST colder (by 0.1C!), so therefore its not debatable really mate. I think you may have a point about the mins really dragging the CET down but both maxes and mins have been well below average in that 30 day period...

Edited February 15, 2010 by kold weather

[Optimus Prime]

i think it has been the low night time min that have helped this year.

Why do people keep saying that? Its' been the mean maxima that has made this winter cold.

A few record maximum temperatures were recorded January 2010;

Hawarden (Flintshire)

-7.8 °C Coldest since 28 December 2000 (-8.3 °C)

Coldest since 28 December 2000 (-8.3 °C)Preston (Lancashire)

-6.4 °C

Coldest on record (previous record -4.6 °C on 12 January 1987)Chivenor (Devon)

-5.7 °C

Coldest on record (previous record -3.7 °C on 12 January 1987)Carlisle (Cumbria)

-5.6 °C

Coldest on record (previous record -4.6 °C on 12 January 1987)Santon Downham (Norfolk)

-4.5 °C

Coldest on record (previous record -2.8 °C on 7 February 1991)Pembrey Sands (Carmarthenshire)

-4.0 °C

Coldest since 26 December 1995 (-4.1 °C)

[FENDER.]

All down to where you live I guess. Large areas of the midlands really havnt had much in the way of snow.

[Weather-history]

not really..where were the sub zero days???..i dont remember seeing many days that had maxes below 0c..i can find examples in all those years of daytime maxes of well below zero -5c or better across huge swathes of the country..i think it has been the low night time min that have helped this year..often lowest daytime maxes have hovered between -1c and +2c...granted my deep cold may have been short lived in comparison to this winter but they definately surpassed this one every time

From Philip Eden's analysis of January 2010

Many places reported seven consecutive days continuously below freezing, and upland sites in Wales and northern England logged a run of 12 sub-zero days

the long run of consecutive sub-zero days was probably the longest in January since 1963

http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/1001.htm

[johnholmes]

not really..where were the sub zero days???..i dont remember seeing many days that had maxes below 0c..i can find examples in all those years of daytime maxes of well below zero -5c or better across huge swathes of the country..i think it has been the low night time min that have helped this year..often lowest daytime maxes have hovered between -1c and +2c...granted my deep cold may have been short lived in comparison to this winter but they definately surpassed this one every time

I'm not sure CM why you carry on with the attempt to disprove many people who feel that THEIR winter has been cold/notable or whatever other word they choose to use? Why not simply accept that your view, from a long way off, is different from those in some places of the UK?

I can say quite definitely that the winter in the DONCASTER area is the coldest, snowiest since 1981-82 and I have the data to prove it. My avge max in January was 2.0C below the long term average, 1943-now(2 years data missing in that), and my avge min was 0.9C below that long term. That tends to kick a hole in your assertion that it was the min temps that gave a low overall mean? So come on less of the arguing and simply accept some areas, aside from a fairly unique winter for Scotland, have had what people say they have had.

[Weather-history]

I'm not sure CM why you carry on with the attempt to disprove many people who feel that THEIR winter has been cold/notable or whatever other word they choose to use? Why not simply accept that your view, from a long way off, is different from those in some places of the UK?

I'm glad you said that John as I'm not sure how CM can possibly have an incline on how the various parts of the UK have done this winter from 1000s of miles away!

It is clear that there has been snow variation across the UK but thats true of all winters. To me, this winter has been a northerly directed winter, the colder and snowier spells have come from the north rather than the east hence why northern parts have received more cold and snow than the south. If it was an easterly based winter than the south would have done better than the west and north.

The Manchester Winter Index is currently 174 and it is going to be the most notable winter here since at least 1985-86. Its a pity others don't do a winter index and then they can compare with previous winters for their area.

[johnholmes]

I felt it needed to be said Kevin-sure there are some areas where its not notable let alone historic. But its certainly notable here for the reasons I've posted. Just been reading the middle pages of the latest Weather with Philip Eden showing December as the coldest nationally since 1996 and the 15th most easterly December in 137 years of records. So it will be interesting to see how January features.

re your Manchester figures-I've made a start on my own doing it the same way and EVENTUALLY will do the same for Finningley. I love the memories which we all post but the best method of comparison has got to be using a set of statistics which takes as many appropriate variables into account as possible. Your Manchester data seems to do that to me-the only thing not shown are actual snow depths and how many but heck its hardly a perfect world anyway.

Maybe CM will accept the data being shown by many folk on here I do hope so.

[reef]

I'm glad you said that John as I'm not sure how CM can possibly have an incline on how the various parts of the UK have done this winter from 1000s of miles away!

It is clear that there has been snow variation across the UK but thats true of all winters. To me, this winter has been a northerly directed winter, the colder and snowier spells have come from the north rather than the east hence why northern parts have received more cold and snow than the south. If it was an easterly based winter than the south would have done better than the west and north.

The Manchester Winter Index is currently 174 and it is going to be the most notable winter here since at least 1985-86. Its a pity others don't do a winter index and then they can compare with previous winters for their area.

Winter index here from 1987/88 to present:

2009/10: 181

1995/95: 144

1990/91: 107

1993/94: 80

2000/01: 79

2003/04: 59

2005/06: 53

1998/99: 52

2002/03: 52

2008/09: 50

1996/97: 48

1991/92: 46

1992/93: 46

2001/02: 43

2004/05: 42

1994/95: 38

1987/88: 35

1999/00: 33

1997/98: 20

2006/07: 18

2007/08: 17

1989/90: 11

1988/89: 8

- Sleet or snow has fallen on 25 days so far which is the most in the period (next is 1990/91 with 22 days).

- There has been a half cover or more at 0900 on 20 days which is also the most in the period (next is 1995/96 with 15 days).

- Air frosts have been observed on 31 days which is the lowest since 1995/96 with 13 days still remaining. (Highest since 1982 was 1984/85 on 38 days - still possible)

- Average maximum temperature so far is 4.195C - the lowest since my temperature records began in 1982. (Next Lowest is 1985/86 on 4.592C).

- Mean temperature is 2.3C, which is the lowest since my temperature records began in 1982. (next is 1984/85 on 2.6C).

So quite a list of records and no doubt easily the best winter since 1978/79. Perhaps the only disappointing aspect is that we havent had more than 8cm of snow at any one time. To be honest though, the reason is that all of the snowfalls have come from northerlies. The easterlies havent really delivered much in this locale.

[thevalley]

In the sticks in the South we had 7 consecutive freezing days in January - The coldest being a max of (-2.5c) and snow lay for 12 days which is unprecedented this century . A min of -9.1c with 19cms of snow is something to remember. People seem to remember dramatic snow events and last year we had 30cms of snow which lasted about 36 hours but vanished very quickly. For my area coldest winter since 1978/79 and if the cold continues into March then even that could be beaten.

[Weather-history]

Thanks reef. The Manchester Winter Indices are in italics for comparison

Winter index here from 1987/88 to present:

2009/10: 181 174

1995/95: 144 135

1990/91: 107 126

1993/94: 80 78

2000/01: 79 77

2003/04: 59 50

2005/06: 53 59

1998/99: 52 47

2002/03: 52 44

2008/09: 50 105

1996/97: 48 72

1991/92: 46 40

1992/93: 46 43

2001/02: 43 50

2004/05: 42 47

1994/95: 38 45

1987/88: 35 37

1999/00: 33 42

1997/98: 20 25

2006/07: 18 21

2007/08: 17 37

1989/90: 11 26

1988/89: 8 20

The standout is the difference in the index values for 2008-09

[reef]

Thanks reef. The Manchester Winter Indices are in italics for comparison

Winter index here from 1987/88 to present:

The standout is the difference in the index values for 2008-09

2008/09 was a very disappointing winter here, like most of the east/north-eastern coastal stretches the majority of snow events either missed us completely or were the wrong side of marginal.

Days of falling sleet/snow:

Dec: 3

Jan: 0

Feb: 8

Snow lying at 0900:

Dec: 0

Jan: 0

Feb: 3

Air frosts:

Dec: 4

Jan: 4

Feb: 9

January sticks out as the biggest disappointment, despite a mean of 3.8C (-0.5C) it was completely snowless and had just 4 air frosts.

If you remove the first half of February, the winter index would have been just 17!

[Duncan McAlister]

Here and in many parts of Scotland, undoubtedly. The snow depths here weren't as good as December 2000 but to have snow on the ground in some form, from 18 December-15 January, really is exceptional. My dad can't even remember snow cover for as long as that in 1979. Also of note was a sub -10C night and 4 nights in a row below -8C. I only have the weatheronline stats and no good authority on Ayr winters, but this has to be up there with the best of them in the last 100+ years.

Also, the River above the weir was frozen solid for days.

Edited February 15, 2010 by Duncan McAlister

[Optimus Prime]

Highly likely I think it's going to be the coldest February I've recorded here.

Currently 3.4c

February;

2009 4.3c

2008 5.7c

2007 6.0c

2006 4.0c

2005 4.4c

2004 5.6c

1.6c below the 6 year average. Just goes to show how largely mild February's have been.

[Summer of 95]

February has been a terribly boring month here so far- we had snowcover on the 1st but none since. Have had lots of chilly days but no really severe frosts; as others said it's the lack of mildness that has stood out.

I certainly wouldn't call this winter "historic" until I see at least 10cm of snow on the ground; I can't remember a single thing about February 1986 despite clearly remembering Jan 1987 (plus March and April that year) and vaguely Jan 1985- this I suspect was because it was not snowy where I was like 85 or 87. 1991-2 had long spells of frosty weather.

2005-6 which some have mentioned does draw comparisons with this winter as far as the lack of mildness is concerned. I often think that winter should have been a lot colder than it was, given the lack of westerlies and how cold it was in much of Europe.

[cheeky_monkey]

I'm not sure CM why you carry on with the attempt to disprove many people who feel that THEIR winter has been cold/notable or whatever other word they choose to use? Why not simply accept that your view, from a long way off, is different from those in some places of the UK?

I can say quite definitely that the winter in the DONCASTER area is the coldest, snowiest since 1981-82 and I have the data to prove it. My avge max in January was 2.0C below the long term average, 1943-now(2 years data missing in that), and my avge min was 0.9C below that long term. That tends to kick a hole in your assertion that it was the min temps that gave a low overall mean? So come on less of the arguing and simply accept some areas, aside from a fairly unique winter for Scotland, have had what people say they have had.

thanks but im not trying to disprove anything..is it not a discussion forum?..i am merely stating an opinion..and reading some of the post here i am not the only one who views the winter so far from a different stand point...but because im not throwing stats around like confetti then obviously my opinion and others who call it how they see it counts for nought.